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Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State
Point-Spread: WKU -7
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: WKU 34 – Jax St 27
Weather: 57 degrees / 1% rain / 2 mph winds
Western Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – WR Malachi Corley ($7,800) and QB Austin Reed ($9,000) 100% exposure, and you make everything else fit around the Western Kentucky star duo. Floor and upside, facing a Jacksonville defense that has allowed 30 or more points in each of the last three games.
Fade – RB Davion Ervin-Poindexter ($4,300) If this were a 12-game slate, I’d say fade the entire WKU running back group as this is a 4-way backfield split on a team that runs the ball just 36.4% of the time – 129th in the country. For a three-game slate and a touchdown favorite, we’ll need to mix in at least one of the WKU rushers somewhere. Ervin-Poindexter appears to be on the low end of the totem pole since fumbling twice in the Week 3 matchup against Ohio State. In the last three games, just six total carries.
Bargain Bin – WR Jimmy Holiday ($4,000) Its very evident that the reason this WKU offense isn’t functioning at peak levels similar to 2022 is the lack of a competent WR2 next to Corley. Dalvin Smith was expected to be that guy, but injuries have been a setback. It’s most certainly possible to not have exposure to any WKU receivers outside of Corley. Holiday, the Tennessee transfer, is somewhat intriguing from the standpoint that he’s seen his playing time increase the last two games, though resulting in just 70 receiving yards.
Pivot Play – WR Dalvin Smith ($5,200) In his return from injury, Smith played 44% of the offensive snaps against Louisiana Tech with four targets. Conventional thinking would be that Smith’s reps would increase the following week as he gets more comfortable following the time off. Nope, just 26% of the snaps played in Week 6. Unfortunately, we’re not sure whether that drop is performance or health related. Here’s to hoping it’s the latter and that the week of helped Smith regain the form that we saw in Week 1 with 97 yards on 11 targets. WKU needs someone to pair with Corley for the passing game to function closer towards last year’s level and Smith is that guy. Or maybe this is all just wishful thinking.
Best of the Rest – RB Markese Stepp ($4,600) The former Nebraska and USC transfer has been the one constant among the WKU running backs with between 6-9 rushing attempts in each of the last four games. Jacksonville State has allowed 28 and 27 fantasy points to RB1s in the last two games. WR Easton Messer ($5,800) was the only receiver I had confidence in outside of Corley coming into the Louisiana Tech matchup with 26 targets and a 88.5% catch rate. It looks like WKU was trying something new, though, with Dalvin Smith lining up in the slot, which cut into Messer’s playing time. We’ll reiterate that it’s probably not necessary to roster anyone here outside of Corley among the WKU receivers.
Injury Notes – n/a
Jacksonville State:
Top Play(s) – RB Anwar Lewis ($4,200) Might have the highest ownership on the slate among players not named Austin Reed, Malachi Corley and Caullin Lacy. Malik Jackson is expected to sit on Tuesday, meaning Lewis, the projected RB1 coming into the season had it not been for injury, is likely to get the start. Should be noted that an article from the Anniston Star indicates that Lewis still isn’t 100% either currently, and that he’ll get some help in the Jax State backfield. WKU is allowing the 17th most fantasy points in the country to opposing RBs and are 96th in rush D success rate.
Fade – WR Quinton Lane ($5,100) G5 version of Notre Dame’s Tobias Merriweather. Gets a ton of playing time for little to no reason at all yet is still priced as if he’s one of the top WR options on the slate. Eight targets in the last three games for a grand total of 23 receiving yards.
Bargain Bin – WR Jamarye Joiner ($3,200) Thought Joiner would have a bigger impact this season given he’s a P5 transfer from Arizona with previous knowledge of Rich Rod’s offensive system. Playing time has increased in the last two games, including a season high six targets last week against Liberty. Joiner is also a former quarterback; in case you might think Jacksonville State might dip into the bag of tricks with potentially starting their third-string QB tonight.
Pivot Play – WR Perry Carter ($5,700) The former Louisiana-Monroe transfer has solidified himself as WR1 with four or more targets in each of the last six games, and 70 or more yards in four of the last five. WR1s are averaging 19.7 FPPG against the Hilltoppers this season.
Best of the Rest – RB Reggion Bennett ($3,000) or J’Wan Evans ($4,900) When healthy, Jacksonville State has typically leaned on a bell-cow at RB, whether that be Jackson or Lewis. So assuming he’s good to go and remains that way for the entirety of the game, we would assume Lewis gets the lion’s share of the work. But as noted above, the game preview in the Anniston Star did say that Lewis isn’t 100%. Bennett is fourth among RBs in rushing attempts in 2023, while Evans does have four rushing touchdowns on the year – although played just four offensive snaps against Liberty in Week 7.
Injury Notes – QBs. Game-time decision here for both Zion Webb and Logan Smothers as the former is dealing with a concussion-related injury while the latter has an ankle injury. Vegas is somehow still projecting Jacksonville State at close to four touchdowns on Tuesday, so maybe we’ll see one of the two. If not, QB Ashton Frye ($4,500) would get the starting nod. Made brief appearance last week, completing 5-of-11 passes for minimal yardage, along with 23 rushing yards on five attempts. RB Malik Jackson ($7,300) is expected to sit. TE Sean Brown ($4,700) is like a box of chocolates – you never know what you’re gunna git. 103 receiving yards and a touchdown in Week 6, followed by a goose egg against Liberty despite playing over 90% of the offensive snaps.
Southern Mississippi vs. Southern Alabama
Point-Spread: USA -17.5
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: USA 35.5 – USM 17
Weather: 78 degrees / 9% rain / 10 mph winds
Southern Mississippi:
Top Play(s) –
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