North Carolina vs. Minnesota
Point-Spread: UNC -1.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: UNC 26 – Minn 24.5
Weather: 78 degrees / 64% rain / 12 mph winds
North Carolina:
Top Play(s) – RB Omarion Hampton ($8,500) Pretty straight-forward here. Hampton finished as RB6 in CFF last season with 1,500 yards, 15 touchdowns and over 50% of the backfield market share. UNC didn’t improve their backup situation much, and the Heels very well could run more in 2024 without Drake Maye under center. Minnesota is 22nd in returning defensive production.
Fade – QBs. UNC is likely to play both Max Johnson and Conner Harrell on Thursday. Battle of the Mids and we’re not expecting North Carolina’s passing output to rival anything close to what they’ve produced the last several years with Drake Maye. Plenty of high-end QB options on the slate that we don’t need to screw around here.
Bargain Bin – TE Bryson Nesbit ($4,700) There aren’t any sub-$4k options on the UNC side to consider, particularly if they’re not releasing a depth chart. Nesbit is the most realistic ‘cheap’ option for the Heels, finishing as TE10 in CFF last season with 41 receptions on 62 targets. UNC does not have an alpha at wide receiver, so we could see more tight end usage in 2024. Freshman phenom WR Jordan Shipp ($4,700) was a player I wish was cheaper as he was a spring game standout and could have a KC Concepcion like impact as a freshman.
Pivot Play – WR Nate McCollum ($6,300) McCollum will probably see the lowest ownership of the UNC pass-catching options because of price. The former Georgia Tech transfer led North Carolina in targets (67) a year ago, but only produced one touchdown as he was utilized mostly on short to intermediate routes. Anyone’s guess who UNC’s WR1 will be in 2024.
Best of the Rest – WR Kobe Paysour ($5,400) or WR J.J. Jones ($5,100) Continuing on the point above, maybe we see targets spread evenly across the board or someone takes hold of the WR1 job for the Heels – the answer is unknown at the moment. Probably wouldn’t stack multiple receivers given the risk you’re inheriting doing so. Jones has the higher upside of the two players, averaging nearly 16 YPC with a 13.7 aDOT. Former USC transfer RB Darwin Barlow ($5,200) should be the RB2 behind Hampton, but way too expensive a pricing for a backup.
Injury Notes – n/a
Minnesota:
Top Play(s) – RB Darius Taylor ($6,700) and WR Daniel Jackson ($5,800) IF they play, which is a huge question mark right now. Taylor was a monster as a freshman with 799 yards and five touchdowns, averaging 27 carries per game. Injuries have been his undoing, as he was on the shelf last year, in the spring, and now in fall camp. Fully healthy, he’s one of the best backs in the nation. Jackson is the clear-cut WR1 when healthy, with 107 targets a year ago and 50% of the team’s touchdowns. His 37.8% target share was one of the highest in the nation last year.
Fade – RB Sieh Bangura ($5,100) Bangura is the recognizable name transferring over from Ohio, so he’ll get the most attention is the perceived backup to Taylor. Not the case, as Oklahoma transfer RB Marcus Major ($4,500) has received persistent praise from the coaching staff, and he’s the likeliest candidate to get immediate carries should Taylor not play. Bangura might be fourth even on the depth chart behind RB Jordan Nubin ($4,400) so he’s an easy fade here.
Bargain Bin – See above on Marcus Major. That’s the cheapest I’ll go for a Minnesota option.
Pivot Play – WR Elijah Spencer ($4,900) The former Charlotte transfer failed in his first year with the Gophers but is expected to be in the starting lineup along with WR Le’Meke Brockington ($4,500). Someone other than Jackson must catch the ball if the WR1 ends up not playing or limited. Don’t expect much from the Minnesota tight ends this year in the passing game with Brevyn-Spann Ford graduated and the Gophers don’t throw much to their RBs.
Best of the Rest – QB Max Brosmer ($7,500) Minnesota should have a QB upgrade with the New Hampshire transfer who has completed 62% of his throws over the last two seasons. While Minnesota is a run-based offense, their beat writer is projecting the Gophers to have the most pass attempts in a season dating back to 2019 with Tanner Morgan. Should Taylor not play, Minnesota may lean towards the pass even more against UNC.
Injury Notes – RB Darius Taylor ($6,700) and WR Daniel Jackson ($5,800) Injuries to monitor with Minnesota’s two best offensive playmakers. DK states Taylor is deemed ‘probable’ for Thursday with a minor hamstring injury, but poking around, there’s some indications Taylor may not suit up. Jackson seems less likely, and probably not worth risking in that case, given Minnesota’s run-based offensive approach. We’ll stay tuned in warmups.
New Hampshire vs. Central Florida
Point-Spread: UCF -41.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Implied Score: UCF 51.5 – NH 9
Weather: 85 degrees / 15% rain / 11 mph winds
New Hampshire:
Third-lowest implied team total on the slate, and the options aren’t priced down to where they should be. The three primary options in QB Seth Morgan ($5,300), RB Myles Thomason ($5,000) and WR Logan Tomlinson ($5,700) would need to be at least $1k cheaper to get consideration.
Central Florida:
Top Play(s) – QB KJ Jefferson ($9,300) From a pricing standpoint, Brady Cook and Grayson McCall make more sense, but Jefferson is the highest projected QB on the slate. Was there a more perfect transfer addition in the portal this offseason than KJ Jefferson, who pairs with Guz Malzahn? We know exactly what UCF intends to do offensively – play at warp speed, utilize power play-action and RPOs, and get the quarterback on the move in the run game. Jefferson is perfectly suited for all three elements. The former Arkansas transfer is guaranteed 100+ carries in Malzahn’s system, and when that has occurred in the past, the QB has flourished in CFF, averaging 23.5 FPPG in those five seasons.
Fade – RB Peny Boone ($7,700) Boone transferring to UCF was perplexing to everyone. Not only did he leave a cushy spot at Toledo where he could’ve run for 1,000 yards again, but also bypassed landing spots at Kentucky and Louisville where he could’ve walked into a starting job. Based on reports, Boone is likely to be the goal-line back to spell Harvey. That’s not worth $7,700.
Bargain Bin – WR Trent Whittemore ($3,500) UCF brought in a flurry of transfers over the offseason, but it was a 2022 transfer in former Florida receiver Trent Whittemore that won a starting job. He’ll take over the Javon Baker role on the boundary that produced 84 targets and a 1,000-yard season.
Pivot Play – WR Xavier Townsend ($7,000) Risky proposition to roster Townsend here who isn’t cheap and has a limited ceiling as everything he catches comes within 10 yards from the line of scrimmage. That said, he’ll have very little ownership given his price, and could wind up being the WR2 behind Kobe Hudson.
Best of the Rest – RB RJ Harvey ($8,200) There’s no doubt Harvey was exceptional last season rushing for over 1,400 yards with a 6.3 yards per carry average, but part of what made him the RB9 in CFF was his 41% backfield market share. That is unlikely to happen with Boone potentially vulturing carries, along with Jefferson’s added usage around the goal line. In a blowout scenario, I’m not sure it’s worth spending up for Harvey. WR Kobe Hudson ($7,300) is the known commodity in the UCF wide receiver room, and likely doesn’t have to battle another player for touchdown equity like he did a year ago with Baker. I’ll have a good bit of Hudson in my lineups.
Injury Notes – n/a
Lafayette vs. Buffalo
Point-Spread: Buff -3.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: Buff 25.5 – LU 22
Weather: 73 degrees / 1% rain / 11 mph winds
Lafayette:
If there’s an FCS player on the slate to include in your lineups Thursday, look no further than RB Jamar Curis ($4,700). On the smaller end at 5-foot-8, 164 pounds, Curtis proved he can withstand a heavy workload, rushing for 1,460 yards and 15 scores on 235 attempts. No other running back on the team had more than 50 carries so we should be looking at another high-volume share in the backfield. To Buffalo’s credit, they should be better on the defensive end, ranking 75th in returning defensive production. But Curtis will get the volume, and the touch share we’re looking for in a fantasy running back. WR1 Elijah Steward ($4,600) returns after leading the team with 70 targets and five touchdowns in 2023.
Buffalo:
Top Play(s) – WR Nik McMillan ($4,800) We’re going to mention the word risk here a few times in this writeup and that holds true here with touting a player from a Buffalo team that is in a potential Year 0 situation that will have a new coaching staff and ranks 101st in returning production. If there is a glimmer of hope that a name emerges as a legitimate fantasy option, sophomore Nik McMillan is the one to know. He had six receptions for around 140 yards and two scores in the team’s spring game.
Fade – QB CJ Ogbonna ($5,800) We’ll need Ogbonna to be somewhat proficient as a passer to boost our McMillan shares, but there are far better options at the QB spot to even consider this senior QB. Ogbonna can run, which helps, but that’s about all he does well, and we’re surprised he won the starting job to begin with. 38% completion rate on 21 attempts last season as the staff simply didn’t trust him to throw.
Bargain Bin – WR Taji Johnson ($4,400) or WR Victor Snow ($3,000) Outside of McMillan, there are basically zero known commodities on this Buffalo offense. What we do know is that Johnson, a former Boston College transfer, and Snow nabbed the WR2 and WR3 starting spots. Will those be valuable? Unlikely with Ogbonna throwing the football, but they’re starters and they’re cheap.
Pivot Play – RB Al-Jay Henderson ($4,400) Henderson is one of the few lone holdovers from the prior year and landed the top line of the RB depth chart. Buffalo loses 67% of its rushing production from last year with Mike Washington Jr. and Ron Cook Jr. departing – though neither player made a huge impact for a team that averaged just 3.7 YPC. Offensive coordinator Dave Patenaude does have a prior history of producing valuable fantasy running backs, including four 1,000-yard rushers in five seasons between 2014-18 at both Coastal Carolina and Temple.
Best of the Rest – n/a. We covered a few names above, but realistically, the only viable option here is McMillan.
Injury Notes – n/a
Western Carolina vs. NC State
Point-Spread: NC St -33.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: NC St 47 – WCU 13.5
Weather: 89 degrees / 1% rain / 5 mph winds
Western Carolina:
Three options only for the Western Carolina side with QB Cole Gonzales ($6,500) and WRs Calvin Jones ($4,300) and AJ Colombo ($3,800). While Gonzales had a respectable 26-6 touchdown to interception ratio a year ago, we’ve spoken already about the surplus of QB options on the slate. WCU lost their top playmaker last season in Censere Lee who followed his head coach to Pittsburgh. Jones is likely to step into that WR1 spot that produced 63 targets and eight touchdowns a year ago. Jones had an impressive 70% catch rate with one drop on 36 targets in 2023. Colombo posted 38 targets and four touchdowns in just nine games.
NC State:
Top Play(s) – RB Jordan Waters ($5,200) Price is too good here to ignore Waters, the former Duke transfer, who has been the established RB1 for the Wolfpack since spring ball. Running back production under OC Robert Anae is hit or miss. We have examples like last year where the RB1 didn’t get 100 carries. On the flip side, Anae’s RB1 hit 200+ attempts in 2017-18 at Virginia and with Syracuse in 2022. So there’s a bit of risk here, but all reporting since about February has suggested Waters is a cut above everyone else in the running back room.
Fade – WR KC Concepcion ($7,700) KCC is not an outright fade, but I’ll have lower exposure here given the surplus of weapons NC State now has at receiver. Concepcion’s value last year skyrocketed simply because the Wolfpack had literally nobody else to throw to, leading to Concepcion’s 28% target share. That number is coming down in 2024. Not to mention…if Waters is the real deal, will the staff give Concepcion those manufactured carries on the ground again too? I think we look in other directions at WR to spend up a bit a quarterback.
Bargain Bin – TE Justin Joly ($3,700) Anae has exhibited in the past that he’ll feature the tight end position if he has a good one – remember Jelani Woods – and he’ll have a talented option this year in Connecticut transfer Justin Joly. His usage at UConn last year is what makes him so intriguing in a superior scheme, finishing 2023 with 80 targets as he spent 50% of his time lined up in the slot. He’s not the conventional in-line tight end.
Pivot Play – WR Noah Rogers ($4,200) The goal this offseason for the Wolfpack coaching staff was to find a complement to KC Concepcion. Rogers, the former Ohio State transfer and 4-star recruit, will be that guy in 2024, being called a “freak of nature” by one of his teammates. Because of his pricing and constant praise over the offseason, expect a higher ownership number than one might think.
Best of the Rest – QB Grayson McCall ($7,100) McCall is one of the premier QB plays on the slate because of his pricing. If you watched the spring game, you’d have thought Grayson McCall and offensive coordinator Robert Anae had worked together for years. This looks as if it’ll be a seamless transition for the former Coastal Carolina quarterback, as he completed 16-of-20 passes in the scrimmage with a pair of touchdowns. Ultimately, McCall’s fantasy value will be determined by how much he runs the ball in 2024, which Anae has not been shy about getting the position involved, with his QB1 averaging 159 carries per season over the last six years. We’ve read that the staff does not want to run McCall as much as they did Brennan Armstrong last season, for what it’s worth. Former Clemson transfer WR Dacari Collins ($4,500) held off Wake Forest transfer WR Wesley Grimes ($3,800) for the third starting spot, though both will play a lot. RB Kendrick Raphael ($4,700) impressed as a freshman with 311 rushing yards and will be the primary backup to Waters.
Injury Notes – n/a
Murray State vs. Missouri
Point-Spread: Mizzou -46.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: Mizzou 52 – MSU 5.5
Weather: 90 degrees / 15% rain / 7 mph winds
Murray State:
Round of applause again for DraftKings. Murray State alumni Ja Morant wouldn’t have any Racers in his lineups either with a 5.5-point implied team total.
Missouri:
Top Play(s) – WR Luther Burden ($9,000) Safest wide receiver on the slate. And he was plenty effective in a lopsided victory last year against an FCS opponent with seven receptions and a touchdown on eight targets. The only issue is this matchup will be MORE lopsided so might we see Burden for a half only? I’d treat Burden like Devin Neal below with some exposure, but not overboard.
Fade – WR Theo Wease Jr. ($5,600) This is total speculation on my part and a total hunch, but wouldn’t this be the perfect time to send a player a message by sitting him in a game with a 46.5-point line after Wease was just arrested last week for failing to appear in court. There is no confirmation on this whatsoever, but it would make sense if Wease doesn’t play a quarter or a half because of this.
Bargain Bin – WR Joshua Manning ($3,000) Manning was a hot commodity on CFF Dynasty waiver wires a few weeks ago after catching multiple touchdowns in a team scrimmage. Manning was also the team’s offensive MVP in the spring. This is the week to consider Manning given the starters won’t play more than three quarters max.
Pivot Play – RB Nate Noel ($5,400) This was a developing rumor mid-way through fall camp, and sort of confirmed on the depth chart with Noel being listed ahead of RB Marcus Carroll ($5,900), though there is an OR designation as well. That said, this was trending in the direction lately of Noel starting over Carroll as he was held out of a scrimmage with HC Eli Drinkwitz stating “I know what to expect from Noel” indicating they’d seen enough. Both are viable (not in the same lineup), but Noel > Carroll.
Best of the Rest – QB Brady Cook ($8,500) Pretty good price for Cook all things considered. The senior QB is set to have a monster year with Mizzou returning their entire WR room. At the very least, you have an incredibly high floor with Cook who surpassed 20 fantasy points in all but one game last season – the road matchup with Georgia. WR Mookie Cooper ($4,400) is a low ceiling / low floor play but was third on the team with 45 targets a year ago.
Injury Notes – n/a
Coastal Carolina vs. Jacksonville State
Point-Spread: JSU -2.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: JSU 29 – CCU 26.5
Weather: 81 degrees / 11% rain / 2 mph winds
Coastal Carolina:
Top Play(s) – QB Ethan Vasko ($6,800) Easy choice here, though there’s still some risk because we technically don’t know the surefire starter between Vasko and Michigan State transfer Noah Kim. All indications over the offseason point to Vasko who offers the dual-threat ability that Kim cannot match, displayed last season with his 184-yard rushing performance against Old Dominion in Week 10.
Fade – RB Christian Washington ($4,100) Highest priced backup on a team that’s leading rusher had just 407 yards on the ground in 2023. Four starters return along the offensive line which should boost the CCU rushing attack, but a tight spread means we’ll lean on the projected starters over a potential depth piece in Washington.
Bargain Bin – WR Cameron Wright ($3,000) Admittedly know nothing about Wright, as Coastal Carolina news coverage is obsolete, and Wright is a Division II transfer. But he’s listed at the top line of the depth chart and gives this room some size at 6-foot-4, 210 pounds. Similar frame to last year’s leading receiver Sam Pinckney. CCU has 192 vacated targets with Pinckney and Jared Brown no longer around, so someone must catch passes.
Pivot Play – RB Ja’vin Simpkins ($4,800) We mentioned this last week, but occasionally, Phil Steele gets some predictions correct. Simpkins is an example of this, projected by Steele to be in the starting lineup back in May, and the current depth chart reflects this. Simpkins is expected to assume the CJ Beasley-Reese White role of the past few seasons that combined for 145 rushing attempts in 2023.
Best of the Rest – WR Jameson Tucker ($5,000) The states aren’t eye-popping, catching just 20 receptions on 34 targets last year as a distant WR3. Here’s the thing – Tucker played over 70% of the team’s offensive snaps last year…by far the most experience WR in the current room. I like him as an under-owned option. RB Braydon Bennett ($5,200) is back for what seems like his 10th year with CCU. While we don’t anticipate him being a workhorse, he’s the one known commodity in the backfield. WR Kyre Duplessis ($3,900) started in last year’s bowl game against Hawaii, catching a pair of passes on two targets. Also listed as a starter.
Injury Notes – n/a
Jacksonville State:
Top Play(s) – N/A. Too much unknown here to designate a top play on the Jacksonville State side. There was a three-way quarterback competition in the summer, and the depth chart reflects that it is still ongoing. As we saw last year with Logan Smothers and Zion Webb, HC Rich Rodriguez has a quick trigger and will rotate when deemed necessary. Running back looks to be an RBBC. And the Gamecocks don’t throw the ball enough for a WR to possess any value. It is not necessary to have a Jacksonville State player in your lineups.
Fade – All JSU WRs – Jacksonville State’s 35.1% pass rate in 2023 was bottom-third in the country. Last year’s leading WR averaged just 10.4 fantasy points per game with under 70 targets. Volume won’t be there for anyone to be relevant on the slate.
Bargain Bin – RB Tre Stewart ($3,000) Surprise name on the depth chart with Ron Wiggins likely out for the season. Stewart, a transfer from Limestone University, rushed for 1,000+ plus yards in each of the last two seasons, while displaying versatility in the passing game with 68 receptions in that span. The RB3 under Rodriguez has rushed for at least 400 yards in each of the last two years so we’re likely to see some involvement from that spot on Thursday.
Pivot Play – RB Andrew Paul ($4,900) For those of you that were with us last year, we faded RB Anwar Lewis ($5,300) down the stretch as he seemingly fell out of favor with the coaching staff, combining for just 13 rushing attempts over the last two games. Lewis remains atop the depth chart but seems unstable. Paul, the former 4-star recruit and Georgia transfer, has the highest upside of the two rushers. We’ll save some coin and go with the more talent option of the two.
Best of the Rest – QB Logan Smothers ($6,500) Rodriguez has yet to publicly announce a starter for Thursday but did say that Smothers and FCS transfer Tyler Huff are co-starters coming out of fall practices. Smothers and Zion Webb rotated in and out several times in-game over the course of the year, and there’s a distinct possibility we see that play out again here.
Injury Notes – RB Ron Wiggins ($5,500) Wiggins will miss the next 10 weeks due to injury and is looking for a medical redshirt for this season.
Lindenwood vs. Kansas
Point-Spread: KU -44.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: KU 51.5 – LU 7
Weather: 85 degrees / 60% rain / 6 mph winds
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – RB Devin Neal ($7,900) We’re going to keep this Kansas writeup brief because almost the entire offensive two-deep remains intact from a year ago so we know what to expect here. Looking back at the last two season openers for Kansas against inferior FCS opponents, Neal has a combined 200+ rushing yards with three rushing touchdowns. I highly doubt Neal with hit 10 carries in this lopsided matchup, so be cautious how much exposure you have.
Fade – RB Sevion Morrison ($4,300) KU only released a two-deep so we cannot see who the RB3 currently is but reports from fall camp suggested prized freshman RB Harry Stewart III ($3,000) was impressive and already has a college ready frame at 215 pounds. I’d go cheap. If thinking about investing in a backup KU running back beyond the top two, I’d go cheap here in Stewart > Morrison.
Bargain Bin – TE Jared Casey ($3,700) With Trevor Kardell likely out, Casey won the TE1 job on the initial depth chart. More of a fullback as opposed to a tight end, Casey did catch two touchdowns last year and will fill a spot vacated by Mason Fairchild that produced 38 targets and three touchdowns a year ago.
Pivot Play – RB Daniel Hishaw Jr. ($5,700) We referenced above the two performances against inferior FCS opponents the last two years for Neal. In those same games, Hishaw saw a similar limited volume of carries, but found the end-zone in each matchup. Probably need more than one score to hit value from Hishaw, but he’ll provide a solid floor.
Best of the Rest – QB Jalon Daniels ($9,500) Curious to see how much the staff limits Daniels in his first game back after missing much of last year with the mysterious back injury. When healthy, Daniels is a borderline QB1 option in college fantasy, but I think we’re better of waiting a week or two to see how he functions health-wise. This is also a new offensive scheme under new OC Jeff Grimes. The WR situation is the same as it’s always been with WR Lawrence Arnold ($6,500), WR Luke Grimm ($5,400) and WR Quentin Skinner ($5,900) all back. Skinner is the least appealing of the trio as he’s the third option with the second-highest price point.
Injury Notes – TE Trevor Kardell ($3,400) Kansas’ 247 beat writer stated as of 8/26/24 that Kardell has been limited in practice with few reps due to injury. Highly doubt the staff plays him much / at all given the situation.
Lindenwood:
The starting skill position players for Lindenwood comprise of a Murray State transfer, McNeese State transfer, Fort Scott Community College transfer and a redshirt freshman that didn’t appear in a single game in 2023. If there was some FBS talent that transferred down a level, we might have some slight interest. WR Jeff Caldwell ($4,100) is the team’s best offensive weapon at 6-foot-4, leading the Lions last season with 63 targets and eight touchdowns in just nine games.
North Dakota State vs. Colorado
Point-Spread: Col -9.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Implied Score: Col 34.5 – NDSU 25
Weather: 78 degrees / 1% rain / 5 mph winds
Colorado:
Top Play(s) – WR Will Sheppard ($5,500) There may not be a team in college football with more depth at the wide receiver position than Colorado, but the former Vanderbilt transfer is a shoo-in to start at one of the boundary positions opposite Travis Hunter. Some risk here because of the target distribution with so much depth, but the price point is much more attainable than some of the higher-priced Colorado options. Sheppard caught two touchdowns in an August intrasquad scrimmage.
Fade – RBs. Same story as last year. The OL should be much improved, replacing the entire line, but this was the worst rush offense in the Pac-12 (RIP) last year, averaging under 70 yards per game on the ground. RB Charlie Offerdahl ($6,000) is a former walk-on and the de facto starter because the rest of the depth chart is made up of transfers still learning the offense. He should be $2k less based on actual talent.
Bargain Bin – WR Terrell Timmons Jr. ($3,400) The former NC State transfer is the backup to Travis Hunter and probably WR5 overall in the rotation but was praised by Shedeur Sanders recently in a fall camp practice. The article in the Coloradoan stated Timmons was “consistently targeted” by Sanders. If the staff takes some snaps away offensively from Hunter, Timmons will be the beneficiary.
Pivot Play – Play Multiple Colorado WRs. The Buffs were a highly popular stacking team in 2023 because of the condensed target share with the target three garnering 57% on a team that threw the ball 57% of the time. We expect Sheppard, WR Travis Hunter ($9,200) and FAU transfer WR LaJohntay Wester ($6,000) to start. Would be a tight squeeze to get three in with Shedeur, but two is a safe route, and could go to a third option in Timmons above or WR Jimmy Horn Jr. ($5,300) at a cheaper salary.
Best of the Rest – QB Shedeur Sanders ($10,000) To play or not to play at this price. I think it’s a better GPP play and must stack with multiple receivers as this will be a competitive matchup, which we have prior examples of from last year with the Buffs being core pieces of GPP takedowns. We will note that Colorado threw the ball slightly less once current OC Pat Shurmur took over the play-calling duties last season. Does that trend continue in 2024 or will Colorado remain extremely pass-happy. Sanders being a non-runner makes the $10k a tough pill to swallow.
Injury Notes – n/a
North Dakota State:
Few things of note with regards to North Dakota State and their offense. (1) The quarterback is heavily involved in the ground game, as evidenced by QB Cam Miller’s ($6,900) 28 rushing touchdowns over the last two seasons. (2) NDSU will spread the ball around to 5-6 players in the run game. No running back had more than 20% volume share over the last two seasons. Depth chart suggests RB TK Marshall ($4,500) will get the first crack but expect to see at least RB CharMar Brown ($4,000) and RB Barika Kpeenu ($5,000) if those patterns hold true again. (3) The Bison ran the football 73% of the time in 2023 which is consistent with the style of offense employed the last few seasons, so minimal interest in the wideouts.
Southern Utah vs. Utah
Point-Spread: Utah -38.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: Utah 45.5 – USU 7
Weather: 71 degrees / 1% rain / 5 mph winds
Southern Utah:
The last time Utah faced off with its in-state “rival”, the Utes won going away 73-7, limiting Southern Utah to just 85 yards of total offense. RB Braedon Wissler ($4,200) is the most established offensive player on the Thunderbirds, hitting 100 yards or more in three of the last five games in 2023. But we’re not rostering a running back on a team that is a 39-point underdog.
Utah:
Top Play(s) – WR Dorian Singer ($6,700) Not often has a Utah receiver been atop the pecking order for the Utes for DFS plays but I believe it’s warranted here. The former Arizona and USC transfer was a bust with the Trojans in 2023, but has been praised constantly ever since arriving on campus in the spring. HC Kyle Whittingham went as far as to say that Singer is “our WR1, there is no doubt about it.” Not sure a 1,000-yard season is in store, because that’s simply not Utah’s style of play, but 30% target share or more is certainly in the cards.
Fade – WR Mycah Pittman ($5,200) As a 38-point favorite, everybody has a chance to get into the mix, but Pittman is an oft-injured WR3 that is probably the fifth or sixth option in the Utah passing game. Don’t see Pittman being worth it even as a contrarian play.
Bargain Bin – TE Landen King ($3,000) The former Auburn transfer takes a back seat in the tight end room with TE Brant Kuthie ($5,800) now fully healthy, but the Utes have no issue trotting out three and four tight ends routinely. King was effective late last year with 13 receptions on 16 targets in the final five games of 2023.
Pivot Play – RB Mike Mitchell ($4,700) The messaging has been consistent all through fall camp that there is no perceived leader at the running back position and that Whittingham is comfortable with the top three of Mitchell, Jaylon Glover and Micah Bernard. The latter is likely to get the first snap of the season as the veteran of the group, but Mitchell, a redshirt freshman, has the highest upside among the group and should see plenty of run in a blowout scenario. Per Whittingham in fall camp…”Micah Bernard remains at the top of the RB competition but Mike Mitchell is “on his heels and has really started to emerge.” If choosing a Utah running back, it would be either Mitchell or Micah Bernard ($5,800).
Best of the Rest – QB Cam Rising ($9,000) Rising is in play, but too expensive for this slate given we can see Utah easing their veteran QB back into game shape after spending a year away from football. File this away for later in the year though – we’re expecting Utah to be much more pass-friendly in 2024 than in prior years with no surefire RB1 to lean on.
Injury Notes – n/a
