Stanford vs. Syracuse
Point-Spread: Syra -10.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: Syra 34 – Stan 23.5
Weather: Dome
Stanford:
Top Play(s) – WR Elic Ayomanor ($6,500) Wide receiver is, by far, the position with the most options on this slate, so the Stanford WR1 is not a must-have. Ayomanor is, by far, the team’s best offensive player, now with 16 targets in two games, crossing the century mark in Week 1 vs. TCU. Four receivers have scored double-digit fantasy points against the Orange this season, including 24 from Ohio’s Coleman Owen in Week 1.
Fade – RBs. Maybe one of the Stanford backs show up on the optimals because they’re so cheap, but this is arguably the least fantasy relevant position on any team in the FBS. The Cardinal are 120th in EPA per rush play and 98th in rush play success rate. And I’d venture to guess a large part of any success Stanford has on the ground comes from the quarterbacks. RB Micah Ford ($3,700) was the lead vs. TCU in Week 1 with 10 carries, but now is averaging 1.1 yards per carry through two games.
Bargain Bin – TE Sam Roush ($3,700) Even without Ben Yurosek, the tight end position remains a featured option in the Stanford passing game. Roush is fifth on the team in targets (7) and second in routes run, on the field around 94% of the time.
Pivot Play – WR Tiger Bachmeier ($5,100) I’d be lying if I said I knew for sure the dynamics of the Stanford slot receiver though two weeks. I believe Bachmeier is still the starter in name but played sparingly in the blowout over Cal Poly and was not targeted a single time. Meanwhile, WR Ismael Cisse ($4,800) has been the top performer not named Elic Ayomanor with 14 targets through two games, including a perfect 8-for-8 vs. Cal Poly. We know Stanford will need to throw on Friday, so either player could be a factor, but wouldn’t stack as they play the same spot.
Best of the Rest – QB Ashton Daniels ($7,300) Tea leaves make it sound like 4-star freshman Elijah Brown will get the starting job at some point this season, but difficult to imagine Stanford would send him out to the wolves on a primetime road start. Daniels is a proficient enough passer, but his viability comes with his legs as the team’s leading rusher with over 150 yards in two games. The Stanford defense hasn’t been good in any facet, ranking 100th and 108th, respectively, in rush and pass D success rate. It won’t be pretty, but Daniels should hit value just on his volume alone.
Injury Notes – n/a
Syracuse:
Top Play(s) – RB LeQuint Allen ($7,000) With the newfound success of the Syracuse passing game, I think Allen’s been a bit of a forgotten man. Production levels are still the same with 80+ yards in each of the first two games with a combined 40 fantasy points scored because of Allen’s usage in the passing game. Stanford doesn’t do anything particularly well defensively.
Fade – WR Justus Ross-Simmons ($5,000) You might remember this name from past years as Colorado State’s WR2. Well, JRS wasn’t anything more than WR4 during the offseason. In his first game back from injury, this is a definite stay away.
Bargain Bin – WR Zeed Haynes ($4,600) Cheapest that we would go for a Syracuse player. Haynes hasn’t had the major impact we thought he might have coming out of the offseason, but still an integral part of the Cuse passing attack, sitting second in targets (15) while playing around 70% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Pivot Play – WR Umari Hatcher ($5,200) Of the top four Syracuse pass-catchers, Hatcher will see the lowest ownership by far. Just eight targets in two games but does play a healthy 65% of the team’s offensive snaps. He won’t be impacted by Ross-Simmons’ return to the lineup.
Best of the Rest – QB Kyle McCord ($8,400) Amazing what a new environment can do for a quarterback. No longer in a toxic situation in Columbus, is supported fully by his head coach, and has a surprising number of weapons. Eight passing touchdowns combined in the first two games, surpassing 300+ yards against both Ohio and Georgia Tech. The Stanford secondary allowed 353 yards and two scores in Week 1 to TCU’s Josh Hoover. The Cardinal also gave up 27 fantasy points in Week 1 to tight end / wide receiver hybrid Jack Bech. We have another player of the same architype in this exact game with TE/WR Oronde Gadsden ($6,900). Gadsden and WR Trebor Pena ($6,400) can be stacked together but you should probably have at least one of the two in all your lineups.
Injury Notes – n/a
Illinois vs. Nebraska
Point-Spread: Neb -8.5
O/U Total: 43.5
Implied Score: Neb 26 – Illini 17.5
Weather: 81 degrees / 32% rain / 9 mph winds
Illinois:
Top Play(s) – WR Zakhari Franklin ($5,500) or Pat Bryant ($5,900) The senior wideouts dominate the team target share at 56% with four of the Illini’s six receiving touchdowns. Wide receiver is too deep on the slate to stack the two together for that reason, but Illinois’ inability to run the football has led to increased volume in the passing game.
Fade – WR Hank Beatty ($3,800) Eight different players have earned reps in the slot this season as the Illini try and find a solution inside after losing Isaiah Williams to the NFL. No answers just yet, so we’ll fade the highest priced option in Beatty who played just 12 snaps vs. Central Michigan last week.
Bargain Bin – TE Tanner Arkin ($3,500) Arkin has just three targets in three games, so this isn’t a position heavily utilized in the Illinois passing game. But Arkin is on the field 84% of the time, running a route on 32% of his offensive snaps.
Pivot Play – RB Kaden Feagin ($5,200) There is no must-have running back on the slate outside of LeQuint Allen. So, you can get a little wonky with the second RB spot, especially in GPPs. The Illini run game has been absolutely putrid to start the year, leading to most CFF folks dropping Feagin from their lineups. Doesn’t get any easier vs. Nebraska that is allowing just 7.2 fantasy points per game to running backs. While we wouldn’t have heavy exposure here, Feagin is still dominating the backfield market share at nearly 40% and 75% of the team’s rushing touchdowns on the year.
Best of the Rest – QB Luke Altmyer ($6,700) The 13-point projection for Altmyer just won’t cut it at this price, where he probably sits 5th or 6th among QB rankings on the slate. That’s not a slight to him either, as Altmyer has played well through three games, completing almost 70% of his passes with six touchdowns and zero turnovers. Not the game environment, though, where he’ll put up a ton of fantasy points.
Injury Notes – n/a
Nebraska:
Top Play(s) – RB Dante Dowdell ($5,500) The Week 2 matchup with Colorado is going to be our best barometer for how to play this Nebraska offense. And the Oregon transfer dominated the backfield touches that day with 74 yards and two scores on 17 attempts. Dowdell’s six rushing attempts inside the red zone are double the next closest running back.
Fade – RB Gabe Ervin ($3,800) Seems to be the odd man out of the four-man rotation in the Nebraska backfield. Just five carries in the last two games since rushing for two scores against UTEP in Week 1. This won’t be a blowout so the RB4 has no appeal to us.
Bargain Bin – TE Thomas Fidone ($3,700) Fidone is a perfect six for six this season on targets directed his way…for just 26 yards with an aDOT of 0.0 this season. Against UTEP and Northern Iowa, passes in his direction were behind the line of scrimmage. Still, Fidone is the clear TE1 and should have an impact in competitive games like this.
Pivot Play – RB Rahmir Johnson ($5,300) Good on the Nebraska coaching staff to get more creative with Johnson who is simply not an every-down running back at this point in his career. Tied for second on the team with 11 targets, including eight receptions in the win over Colorado. He’ll get 7-10 rushing attempts as well.
Best of the Rest – QB Dylan Raiola ($8,000) If playing Raiola, you must stack the lineup with either one of his top targets in WR Jahmal Banks ($4,700) or Isaiah Neyor ($5,700), since he’s a net zero on the ground. Illinois pass defense has been pretty good thus far, allowing just 10.4 FPPG to quarterbacks so our interest in Raiola is minimal. We’d rather just play one of Banks or Neyor in a lineup alone. Both of Kansas’ starting receivers, Luke Grimm and Lawrence Arnold combined for 31 fantasy points in their matchup with the Illini secondary.
Injury Notes – n/a.
San Jose State vs. Washington State
Point-Spread: Wazzu -13.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: Wazzu 34.5 – SJSU 21
Weather: 60 degrees / 4% rain / 6 mph winds
San Jose State:
Top Play(s) – WR Nick Nash ($8,900) The best fantasy receiver in college football by a wide margin through three weeks. Nash has scored 27 more fantasy points this season than the next closest receiver (Tai Felton), now leading the nation with 34 receptions and six touchdowns on 44 targets. Five different receivers have scored double-digit fantasy points against Washington State this season, including last week where Washington’s Giles Jackson went for 30+.
Fade – n/a. Primary contributors for San Jose State are priced correctly.
Bargain Bin – WR Treyshun Hurry ($3,000) San Jose State really doesn’t have a WR3 at the moment, hence why Nash / Lockhart are dominating the target share. Hurry has been targeted at least three times, though, in each of the first three contests, playing around 56% of the offensive snaps. TE Jackson Canaan ($3,100) has essentially been the de facto third pass-catcher, and did have 88 yards with a TD vs. Air Force in Week 2.
Pivot Play – RB Floyd Chalk ($4,000) over Jabari Bates ($4,400) Guessing the two running backs are priced as such because of recency bias, where Bates rushed for 61 yards on 11 carries vs. Kennesaw State. Chalk appears to be the listed starter still, though, so this looks to be a “coaches ride the hot hand” situation. While SJSU has been abysmal running the football, Wazzu hasn’t been great at defending the run, ranked 93rd in rush D success rate.
Best of the Rest – QB Emmett Brown ($6,500) Motivation storyline as Brown gets to face his former team. The former walk-on and Washington State transfer has been very good this season despite being in a QB battle all through fall camp, coming off a 32-point performance last Saturday. We’d lean towards not playing Brown, though, as the Washington State secondary has played well, allowing just 15 fantasy points to both Behren Morton and Will Rogers. WR Justin Lockhart ($5,900) is the clear No. 2 behind Nash with 12 targets and a touchdown but has just a 33% catch rate with two drops.
Injury Notes – WR Malikhi Miller ($3,600) Questionable with undisclosed injury. Nothing of note mentioned on the message boards. Will check during pregame. WR3 spot probably doesn’t have a major impact as it is anyways.
Washington State:
Top Play(s) – QB John Mateer ($9,000) We’re going to use the same analysis as last week with regards to Mateer, who has currently scored more fantasy points this season than any other player in college football. Of course, any player can fail, but there is not just one path here for Mateer to succeed. If San Jose State loads the box, Mateer plays in an Air Raid system under OC Ben Arbuckle. If the Spartans defend the pass, then Mateer has the legs to beat any defense as he already has a 197-yard rushing performance this season. Top play of the slate.
Fade – RB Leo Pulalasi ($4,200) Pulalasi has fallen to RB3 with the emergence of the true freshman we’ll get to in a bit. Since he’s not a factor in the passing game, the only way Pulalasi hits value is if he rushes for a touchdown in garbage time.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Nobody under $5k.
Pivot Play – RB Wayshawn Parker ($5,100) This freshman popped on the screen all the way back in the spring, but we kind of ignored it because Washington State has primarily been an Air Raid that doesn’t run the football much. But the staff can’t keep this freshman off the field now that he’s averaging over seven yards a carry. San Jose State has been better than expected defensively, but the rush defense has been the weaker area, ranked 53rd in rush D success rate.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Unfortunately, I think game script and defensive scheme will dictate which wide receiver has the best day between Kris Hutson, Kyle Williams and Joshua Meredith to the point where there will not be a target hog in this offense like we’ve seen previously. 50 of the team’s 70 targets have gone to one of those three, though, so there aren’t any options beyond them. And there is not a lot of data to go off of to see how San Jose State will play them defensively given two of their previous opponents run a triple option.
Injury Notes – n/a
