Northwestern vs. Maryland
Point-Spread: MD -10
O/U Total: 45
Implied Score: MD 27.5 – NW 17.5
Weather: 59 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Northwestern:
Top Play(s) – WR A.J. Henning ($5,500) or WR Bryce Kirtz ($4,500) When Northwestern drops back to pass, the Wildcats literally throw the ball to just Henning or Kirtz who account for 85 of the 145 targets this season. Maryland allows the 8th most fantasy points to opposing receivers among teams playing this weekend. Five different wideouts have scored at least 18 fantasy points against the Terps. There’s an argument to be made to stack both NW receivers in a lineup because of the top-heavy target share.
Fade – RB Cam Porter ($4,800) Maryland is a middle of the road defense across the board and don’t do any one thing particularly well. There’s hesitancy though with rostering Cam Porter who was not on the team’s injury report last week yet played just 23% of the team’s offensive snaps. There’s a surplus of RB options on the slate that it might be wise to not risk playing Porter.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Offense revolves around the QB and two WRs. That’s it.
Pivot Play – QB Jack Lausch ($6,700) Thought this might go sideways for OC Zach Lujan if the Wildcats put up another stinker like they did against Washington in Week 4. But Lausch operated the offense effectively in the loss to Indiana, throwing for 243 yards and a pair of scores. B1G quarterbacks are averaging 23 fantasy points vs. Maryland this season.
Best of the Rest – n/a.
Injury Notes – B1G injury report will come out two hours before game-time. We’ll see if Cam Porter is listed or not.
Maryland:
Top Play(s) – WR Tai Felton ($8,500) Felton is officially questionable for Friday, but he’s been practicing this week and HC Mike Locksley expects him to play. Despite missing a chunk of the second half of the Indiana matchup in Week 5, Felton still ranks in the top five nationally in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. Northwestern has been dominated by opposing receivers this season, with five wideouts scoring at least 18 fantasy points against them.
Fade – WR Octavian Smith Jr. ($3,400) If we’re basing our interest here on Maryland’s previous game, then we should favor WR Shaleak Knotts ($3,200) as the latter played a season-high 65% of snaps, finishing with three receptions on six targets. Smith was on the field just 31% of the time, which was his lowest output of the season.
Bargain Bin – WR Kaden Prather ($4,500) Locksley said two of three questionable players were practicing this week – that would be Felton and Prather – and that all three (other being a safety) are expected to play on Friday. Similar to Northwestern, Maryland has a top-heavy target share with Felton and Prather combining for over 52% of the team’s targets.
Pivot Play – QB Billy Edwards ($8,000) Some might view this as a one-QB slate. If you do include a second QB, Edwards would be the top choice. Northwestern is only allowing 18 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season but are significantly worse at stopping the pass vs. the run, ranking 112th in EPA per pass defensively and 127th in pass D success rate.
Best of the Rest – RB Roman Hemby ($5,400) Conversely, the run defense has been exceptional for the Wildcats, ranked 11th in success rate and yet to allow a running back to score more than 20 fantasy points against them. Hemby had 117 yards last time out against Indiana, but 75 of those came on one run. Volume is also not there from a rushing standpoint, averaging just 12 totes per game.
Injury Notes – Expect Felton and Prather to play.
UNLV vs. Utah State
Point-Spread: UNLV -18.5
O/U Total: 64.5
Implied Score: UNLV 41.5 – Utah St 23
Weather: 69 degrees / 2% rain / 6 mph winds
UNLV:
Top Play(s) – QB Hajj-Malik Williams ($7,500) Bar none, the best QB on the slate both from a pricing and projection standpoint. When you allow 42 fantasy points to a Temple quarterback, you have problems defensively. Utah State is horrendous in all aspects on that side of the ball.
Fade – RB Kylin James ($4,500) If you’re interested in playing James this week, double check on his health status at least. I was not around to watch the high-scoring affair vs. Syracuse unfortunately last week but James barely played with just a single carry on two offensive snaps.
Bargain Bin – TE Kaleo Ballungay ($3,500) Risky proposition to roster any backup UNLV wide receivers or running backs given the Rebels rotate 4-5 options at the position routinely. Ballungay is consistently on the field as the TE1, playing 90% of the team’s offensive snaps, and this is a great matchup vs. a Utah State defense that has allowed four tight ends already to score at least 10 fantasy points.
Pivot Play – RB Jai’den Thomas ($5,700) We’re not seeing Thomas have the same impact he did a year ago as a freshman with 12 rushing touchdowns, now averaging just six rushing attempts per game. Attempts are spread around more in 2024 for the Rebels, and this is now a QB-centric run game which was not the case a year ago with Jayden Maiava. With that said, Utah State also cannot defend the run or the pass, having allowed four running backs to score at least 20 fantasy points this season already.
Best of the Rest – WR Ricky White ($7,600) You see the impact HMW has had on White who has now topped 100 receiving yards in each of the last two games, looking like the 2023 version of himself. White also hit 100 yards in both a competitive game and a blowout so no such issues there about not hitting value if game script isn’t in his favor. WR Jacob de Jesus ($5,200) is a DISTANT second on the team with 11 receptions on 14 targets and two scores.
Injury Notes – n/a
Utah St:
Top Play(s) – RB Rahsul Faison ($4,700) Another strong performance from Faison against Boise State last week, now with three-straight 100-yard rushing games. Only one other running back carried the ball vs. the Broncos with just two attempts so this is Faison’s backfield right now. Running backs are scoring 22% above their seasonal fantasy averages when facing UNLV this season.
Fade – WR Colby Bowman ($3,300) The former Stanford transfer was thought to be a starting wideout before the season but has seen his playing time decline since the beginning of the year. Bowman played a season-low eight offensive snaps last week.
Bargain Bin – WR Kyrese White ($3,500) Probably the strongest sub-$4k play on the slate as White as 19 targets over his last two games played. Slot receivers have typically been productive in this offensive system.
Pivot Play – WR Otto Tia ($4,000) Utah State fans have wanted Tia to breakout for like three years now and just hasn’t happened. That said, the 6-foot-4 receiver did catch a touchdown last Saturday and has played over 80% of the team’s snaps over the last three games.
Best of the Rest – WR Jalen Royals ($6,700) This is the Jalen Royals that was a first-round draft pick in College Fantasy leagues, now with 300 receiving yards over the last two games. Defensive stats really don’t matter much when considering players like a Jalen Royals or Ricky White – though we prefer White here because of his extremely high target share, where Utah State spreads it around a bit more. QB Spencer Petras ($6,300) is considerable at this price after scoring 50 fantasy points in his last two games. UNLV is hit or miss defensively, allowing just two QBs to score over 22 fantasy points this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Utah vs. Arizona State
Point-Spread: Utah -6.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: Utah 26 – ASU 19.5
Weather: 91 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Utah:
Top Play(s) – RB Micah Bernard ($5,900) Bernard is the second best running back on the slate at an attainable price as Utah’s certified RB1. That said, the Arizona State run defense is solid, allowing just 18 FPPG to opposing backfields and are 47th in rush D success rate. Devin Neal had just 71 yards vs. the Sun Devils last week, and Texas Tech’s Tahj Brooks averaged just 4.3 yards per carry as it was tough sledding his matchup.
Fade – WR Mycah Pittman ($3,700) Funny story on the Utah message boards that describes an unconfirmed text that was received by one message boarder. Cliff notes are that Washington transfer Traeshon Lyons caught a pass in practice, looked towards Pittman and said, “that’s how it’s done old man”, in frustration that he’s not getting more playing time over the senior. Lyons should get more opportunities because Pittman has just two catches in five games.
Bargain Bin – WR Money Parks ($4,200) Parks has been productive this season for his standards, ranked third on the team in targets (24), receptions (14) and second in routes run. Next closest receiver on the roster has just five targets.
Pivot Play – QB Isaac Wilson ($7,700) I’m done looking into the Cam Rising practice reports as it is now just bitching on the Utah message boards about unconfirmed practice reports, line movements and rumor text messages about fights in practice, players not looking at film on tablets, etc. Vegas listed Wilson’s prop line, so we’re proceeding under the assumption he’s starting. Good, not great matchup against the Sun Devils who are giving up just 18 FPPG to opposing QBs but also are 101st in pass D success rate. The pass defense is far worse than the run defense for Arizona State.
Best of the Rest – TE Brant Kuithe ($5,200) Second on the team in targets (27), receptions (17) and first in receiving touchdowns (4). WR Dorian Singer ($4,800) is really coming on the last three weeks, now with 34 of his 44 total targets in that span. Four receivers have scored 20 or more fantasy points against the Sun Devils this season.
Injury Notes – Cam Rising has been upgraded to probable.
Arizona State:
Top Play(s) – RB Cam Skattebo ($8,400) The rare occurrence where it is not necessary to have Cam Skattebo in your DFS lineups. Still dominating the backfield market share where no other Arizona State running back has more than 15 carries on the season, but the Utah run D is one of the best in the country. 8th in rush D success rate and yet to allow a running back to score more than 12 fantasy points in a game this season. Skattebo will test that, but there are several cheaper options on the slate with plus matchups.
Fade – Backup WRs. Arizona State does not rotate at all at receiver. WR4 Jake Smith played just 20% of snaps vs. Kansas last week with a single target. Don’t roster anyone beyond the top three.
Bargain Bin – RB Raleek Brown ($3,000) The USC transfer played a season-high 30% of snaps vs. Kansas last week with seven carries for 41 yards and four targets. Major risk as practice reports didn’t list him even with the second team offense. But he’s a spark plug when on the field.
Pivot Play – QB Sam Leavitt ($7,700) With Utah’s strength being against the run, Arizona State likely cannot line up and hand the ball to Cam Skattebo 30+ times and be successful. Only QB that was productive vs. the Utes this season with Utah State’s Bryson Barnes, who scored 24 fantasy points while running the ball 11 times for 36 yards and a score. We know Leavitt can run.
Best of the Rest – WR Jordyn Tyson ($4,100) Too cheap for a player that leads the team in every receiving category and averages seven targets per contest. Five receivers have scored 12 or more fantasy points against Utah this season. TE Chamon Metayer ($3,200) has 15 targets combined over the last three weeks. Utah has struggled somewhat to defend the position, allowing 19 fantasy points this past game to Arizona TE Keyan Burnett.
Injury Notes – n/a
