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Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State
Point-Spread: JSU -4.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: JSU 31 – WKU 26.5
Weather: 34 degrees / 2% rain / 2 mph winds
Western Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – RB Elijah Young ($6,200) How often does this happen that two teams play consecutive games against each other to close out the regular season, and then face off in the conference title game? Young gets the nod here as this is a 3-RB slate on DK with one in the flex. FD is just standard two running backs and QB in the s-flex. Young has accounted for 44% of the total rushing volume for WKU this season and that number skyrockets to 71% when just factoring in WKU running backs alone. Elijah Young scored 29.9 fantasy points in his previous matchup against Jacksonville State this season.
Fade – RB George Hart III ($4,300) See above. The only way Hart is relevant this week is if Young gets hurt.
Bargain Bin – TE Noah Meyers ($3,000) Meyers has taken over the TE1 position over the injured River Helms and has played over 81% of the team’s snaps over the last four games. The 6-foot-5 redshirt freshman caught a season-best 66 receiving yards in last week’s matchup. Tight ends are scoring 46% more than their seasonal average when facing Jacksonville State this season.
Pivot Play – WR Dalvin Smith ($4,100) There is just something about Dalvin Smith and the late-season fireworks. In 2022, Smith had 19 targets in his last two games with 145-yards in the bowl game over South Alabama. In 2023, Smith caught four of his six touchdowns in the last three weeks, including a season-high 13 targets in the bowl game. Fast forward to this season, and not quite as flashy just yet, but Smith is trending upwards with 63 yards and a score back in Week 13 vs. Liberty. Albeit just 15 yards receiving against JSU on Saturday but ran the third most routes on the team behind Easton Messer and Kisean Johnson.
Best of the Rest – QB Caden Veltkamp ($7,700) JSU’s pass defense should be considered the weakness on that side of the ball, ranked 85th in EPA per pass play and 88th in pass D success rate. That said, JSU hasn’t allowed a ton of fantasy points to quarterbacks this season (17.5 FPPG) and kept this WKU passing game in check last week with just one passing TD at a 59% completion rate. Perhaps the better play is rostering just the WKU receivers and fading the likely high ownership of Veltkamp. WR Kisean Johnson ($6,800) and WR Easton Messer ($5,000) combined for 19 targets last Saturday. WR KD Hutchinson ($3,200) was targeted four times despite playing just 18% of the team’s snaps. Five receivers scored at least 20 fantasy points against the JSU secondary this season, four of which came from Conference USA.
Injury Notes – n/a
Jacksonville State:
Top Play(s) – RB Tre Stewart ($8,500) As straight-forward a top play as it gets given the QB situation for the Gamecocks. WKU held Stewart in check last Saturday, limiting the senior back to just 85 yards and a touchdown on 20 attempts – Stewart’s lowest mark since September. The run defense for WKU remains the weakness on that side of the ball, though, ranked 117th in rush D success rate and 101st in EPA per run play. If JSU gets the lead, 30 touches is not out of the question.
Fade – WRs. Jacksonville State is 131st in pass play percentage and could be downgraded at QB if Logan Smothers gets the start as the forward pass is not his strength. Avoid JSU pass-catchers if possible.
Bargain Bin – If using solely last week’s matchup as evidence, the top receiving options to choose from aside from Cam Vaughn would be WR Michael Pettway ($3,900), WR Brock Rechsteiner ($3,700) and TE Sean Brown ($3,200), all of which played over 60% of the team’s snaps vs. WKU. Just do yourself a huge favor and limit one JSU pass-catcher MAX in a lineup.
Pivot Play – WR Cam Vaughn ($4,300) Team leader in every receiving category, with 47% of his targets this season coming in the last four games alone.
Best of the Rest – QB Tyler Huff ($9,300) / QB Logan Smothers ($9,100) Our assumption is that Huff will start and play as long as his ankle holds up. But we’ll be monitoring the news all the way up until kickoff to see what the situation looks like. Unfortunately, mobility is the biggest reason as to why Huff is viable as a fantasy QB, and the combination of a hobbled runner + the likelihood we see Smothers on running downs means we’ll likely fade this situation.
Injury Notes – QB situation gets our full attention Friday evening.
Tulane vs. Army
Point-Spread: Tul -5
O/U Total: 46
Implied Score: Tul 25.5 – Army 20.5
Weather: 27 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Tulane:
Top Play(s) – RB Makhi Hughes ($8,000) High-level numbers paint a much different picture than the advanced stats with regards to the Army run defense. The Knights are No. 1 in the AAC in yards allowed per game on the ground and give up just 17 FPPG combined to opposing backfields. Now for the bad. Army’s last two opponents combined for nearly 400 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on the ground. The Knights are also just 104th in rush D success rate and 88th in EPA per run play. When Army’s faced a formidable rushing offense like Tulane this year, they’ve struggled.
Fade – QB Darian Mensah ($5,800) Love the player, but Mensah is probably fifth among the QB options on the slate, and potentially sixth if we do get clarity on the Jacksonville State situation. Just one QB all season has scored more than 17 fantasy points against Army this season.
Bargain Bin – TE Alex Bauman ($3,400) Volume isn’t much, averaging just two targets per game, but Bauman has caught three touchdowns in five games since returning from injury in Week 9, playing over 71% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Pivot Play – WR Mario Williams ($5,100) There was a slump in the middle of the season for Wiliiams, but he’s turned it on the last four weeks, topping 90 yards in three of four games. Four AAC receivers have scored 20 or more fantasy points against Army this season, and Williams should have a speed advantage against any defensive back the Knights line up over him.
Best of the Rest – WR Yulkeith Brown ($4,100) or WR Dontae Fleming ($4,500) Tulane doesn’t rotate much at all at receiver if everyone is healthy, so one of Williams, Brown or Fleming are your top options. That trio combines for 61% of the target share and 71% of the team’s receiving yards.
Injury Notes – n/a
Army:
Top Play(s) – QB Bryson Daily ($10,300) Highest projected player of the weekend for theCFFSite, but is the spend-up worth it at this pricing? I prefer Daily a bit more on FD over DK because of salary. We can typically throw out the defensive stats when facing a triple-option opponent, but Tulane is stout against the run, ranking 15th in success rate and 23rd in EPA per run play.
Fade – RB Kanye Udoh ($5,900) I think we can get away fading Udoh this week because of the defensive metrics we listed above for Tulane, combined with the RB position being the strength of the slate. Udoh’s production has fallen over the last three games, averaging 3.3 YPC.
Bargain Bin – RB Noah Short ($4,400) Short out-carried Udoh last week vs. UTSA, rushing for 51 yards on 13 attempts, and continues to be the team’s Swiss Army Knife, ranked second in targets (23), receptions (15) and touchdowns (3).
Pivot Play – WRs. Casey Reynolds is the team leader in targets (27), receptions (17), yards (417) and touchdowns (3). No other player on the roster has more than six receptions for a team that throws the ball just 14.4% of the time. In terms of snaps played, the two longest of longshots would be either TE David Crossan ($3,200) or WR Liam Fortner ($3,000).
Best of the Rest – n/a. Daily, Udoh and Short are the only realistic options.
Injury Notes – n/a.
UNLV vs. Boise State
Point-Spread: BSU -4.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: BSU 31.5 – UNLV 27
Weather: 41 degrees / 6% rain / 2 mph winds
UNLV:
Top Play(s) – WR Ricky White ($7,600) White is equal value on both sites and don’t mind spending up for him as the one true alpha receiver on the slate. While White was held in check in the first matchup, the season-long stats for both he and the Boise State defense have more data points in favor of starting the UNLV WR1. Boise State allows the most fantasy points (50.1) to opposing wide receivers of any team playing this week. I’d favor White slightly on DK over FD because of the scoring format.
Fade – RB Kylin James ($3,500) Nitpicking here because there really isn’t a fade-able option among the UNLV starters. James is solidified as the RB2 behind Jai’Den Thomas, averaging nearly seven yards a carry this season, but rostering the backup against a defense in Boise State that allows just 16 fantasy points combined to running backs this season feels like a risk not worth taking.
Bargain Bin – WR Jacob de Jesus ($4,000) White is obviously the preferred choice among UNLV receivers, but JDJ is the top option beyond the WR1, ranked second in targets (41), receptions (32) and routes run. Stacking White and de Jesus in the same lineup with or without HMW is potentially viable given how condensed the UNLV target share is, and with how many fantasy points Boise State allows to receivers as we alluded to above.
Pivot Play – QB Hajj-Malik Williams ($9,600) If we’re basing selections off of past history, then HMW is worthwhile to spend up at QB given his 33-point performance against the Broncos the last time out. While HMW was sacked six times that day, he also ran for 105 yards on 19 attempts, hitting the century mark four times on the ground in 2024. If HMW doesn’t have the same success on the ground as he did the last time, we know the Boise State secondary is susceptible to allowing big plays through the air, ranking 101st in EPA per pass play and giving up 21 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Best of the Rest – TE Kaleo Ballungay ($3,100) UNLV’s TE1 has just 21 targets on the year, tied for third on the team, but has found the end-zone in each of the last three games, and in four of the last five.
Injury Notes – n/a
Boise State:
Top Play(s) – QB Maddux Madsen ($6,400) This feels gross, but Madsen is probably the best play on the Boise State side because of his pricing in relation to other QBs on the slate, and the inflated salary for Ashton Jeanty. UNLV’s defense is solid all around, but the secondary is probably the weakness on that side of the ball, ranked 55th in EPA per pass play and giving up around 20.3 FPPG to quarterbacks. QBs are scoring about 15% more fantasy points than their seasonal average when taking on UNLV.
Fade – RB Ashton Jeanty ($12,500) The RB position is the strength of the slate with or without Jeanty, and this UNLV defense held the Heisman contender to one of his lowest outputs of the season last time out, averaging just 3.9 YPC and 26 fantasy points. That won’t cut it at this price. Jeanty and LeQuint Allen were the only running backs to score more than 20 fantasy points all year against the Rebels.
Bargain Bin – TE Matt Lauter ($3,400) Lauter tied a season-high nine targets in the first meeting between these two squads, scoring 13.8 fantasy points. Lauter was one of three tight ends to score at least 13 fantasy points against UNLV this season and is a bargain for a player that led his team in receiving touchdowns, and second in targets.
Pivot Play – WR Cam Camper ($4,400) or WR Latrell Caples ($3,100) Neither player leaves the field all that much, playing over 70% of the team’s offensive snaps for the season. UNLV also allows a bunch of fantasy points to opposing receivers, likely because opponents are playing in a trailing position, with five wideouts scoring 22 or more fantasy points on the season against the Rebels. All five were Mountain West receivers as well.
Best of the Rest – WR Austin Bolt ($3,200) Boise State typically plays with two tight ends on the field with Lauter and Matt Wagner, so rostering the WR3 for Boise State can be dicey. Bolt is the third option beyond Camper and Caples, with four receiving touchdowns and 44% of the snaps played over the last month.
Injury Notes – n/a.
Mike’s Core Four:
- Tre Stewart, Jacksonville State
- Makhi Hughes, Tulane
- Ricky White, UNLV
- Elijah Young, Western Kentucky
All-American and Heisman Members can view Weekly Player Projections here (click).
To get a one-week membership to view theCFFsite’s Championship Week Player Projections, click here.