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Oregon State vs. Texas Tech
- Point-Spread: TT -24
- O/U Total: 61
- Implied Score: TT 42.5 – OSU 18.5
- Weather: 84 degrees / 16% rain / 13 mph winds
Oregon State:
Top Play(s) – WR Trent Walker ($5,200) Tough to judge the Texas Tech defense through two games as they’ve played nobody to this point. But as a three-touchdown dog, we assume Oregon State will be a in passing game script. And Walker leads the team in targets (19), yards (274) and receptions. This is a very reasonable price for a centralized target share for Oregon State, particularly with Walker on DK in a full-point PPR format.
Fade – RB Salahadin Allah ($4,400) The Oregon State run game has been quite pedestrian so far, but the distribution splits are why we’re out on Allah. We thought this might look like last year with RB Anthony Hankerson ($7,200) and Jam Griffin getting the majority of the workload, but 39 of the 58 rushing attempts this season have gone to Hankerson. If choosing anyone from the OSU backfield, it needs to be Hankerson.
Bargain Bin – Taz Reddicks ($3,700) Reddicks has been equally as good as Trent Walker and emerged as the clear WR2 with Darrius Clemons out of the lineup. Reddicks will arguably be the top sub-$4k player on the slate as he’s tied with Walker for the team lead in targets (19), coming off a monster performance against Fresno State with 11-158-0 on 15 targets.
Pivot Play – WR David Wells Jr. ($3,400) Walker and Reddicks are getting the spotlight, and deservedly so, but Wells is on the field more than Reddicks, playing around 70% of the offensive snaps with almost no rotation at the receiver spot. Wells has 11 targets in two games.
Best of the Rest – QB Maalik Murphy ($5,000) Murphy is the cheapest I’d go at quarterback on the slate with a decent 17.5-point projection. If anything, Murphy could get there on volume alone as the Beavers are 10th nationally in pass play rate, averaging 41.5 attempts per game. That figures to stay the case Saturday being such a heavy underdog.
Injury Notes – WR Darrius Clemons (Out)
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – QB Behren Morton ($7,300) It’s difficult to gauge the true rotations for Texas Tech at RB and WR when they’ve won their first two games by a combined 118 points. So until that becomes more concrete, we’re siding with the player we know will have the football in his hands in Morton. The senior has been very efficient in two games, throwing a combined seven touchdowns and a 74% completion rate. It’s just two games, but Oregon State is 104th currently in pass play success rate defensively and has faced a freshman QB and a non-throwing offense in Fresno State.
Fade – RB Cameron Dickey ($6,600) Dickey rumbled his way into two touchdowns last week vs. Kent State, but averaging 1.4 yards per carry on eight attempts is not what you should be doing against the worst team in college football. It would not surprise us to see Dickey become strictly the goal-line / red zone option for the Red Raiders and you’re not spending $6.6k for that.
Bargain Bin – TE Terrance Carter Jr. ($4,800) Good players break through the glass ceiling that might limit them when it comes to coaching systems. And Carter seems to be doing that with 92 receiving yards and two scores through two weeks. Volume won’t be high as the system does tend to favor the WRs, but Carter is on the field plenty (75%) and will get red zone looks.
Pivot Play – RB Adam Hill ($3,400) Why not give Adam Hill more carries after his 127-yard performance last week against Kent State. If we’re placing odds on the Tech backfield, sure, Hill is probably still RB3. But there’s a non-zero chance we see Hill get more run moving forward with the ineffectiveness of the other backs.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Tech has a solid trio of wideouts in Coy Eakin, Reggie Virgil and Caleb Douglas. The issue is that no player stands out above the rest in terms of talent or production, with the leading target-getter for the Red Raiders having just five catches on the year so far. We’ll see a more condensed rotation this week but can’t suggest one Tec receiver over the other. Playing Morton naked without any Texas Tech pass-catcher is an option.
Injury Notes – n/a
Wisconsin vs. Alabama
- Point-Spread: Bama -20.5
- O/U Total: 46.5
- Implied Score: Bama 33.5 – Wisc 13
- Weather: 84 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Wisconsin:
Top Play(s) – TE Lance Mason ($3,500) The Missouri State transfer bounced back after a quiet Week 1 to lead the Badgers with 7-102-1 on eight targets in the win over Middle Tennessee. We anticipate Wisconsin having to throw more than usual as a three-touchdown dog and Mason is option A or B in the passing game.
Fade – QB Danny O’Neil ($4,900) If you’re going this cheap at quarterback, you might as well play the guy who is tied for second in the country in passing touchdowns in Temple’s Evan Simon, not a backup QB at Wisconsin on the road.
Bargain Bin – WR Vinny Anthony ($3,700) Anthony should not have a lower salary then fellow starting receiver WR Trech Kekahuna ($4,400), as he leads the team in targets (12), receptions (10) and yards (107). Wisconsin is more likely to score over the top of the Bama defense, rather than dink and dunk their way downfield, favoring Anthony and his 13.8 aDOT.
Pivot Play – RB Dilin Jones ($5,200) Florida State gashed Bama for 252 yards on the ground in the opener. While Wisconsin has frustratingly rotated backs through the early going, Jones has easily been the most effective of the group with 109 yards and a touchdown on 24 attempts. The biggest surprise is Jones being a small factor in the passing game with four catches on five targets. Meanwhile, the third-down back, Darrion Dupree, has not caught a pass. Wisconsin has not been overly impressive running the football so far against lowly opponents, so we’d stay away here, but Jones is the top RB option for the Badgers.
Best of the Rest – WR Jayden Ballard ($3,900) Ballard should also not be priced ahead of Vinny Anthony, as he’s split time with Chris Brooks Jr. at the second boundary receiver spot. The Ohio State transfer has been the more effective of the two players, including 73 yards last week vs. MTSU.
Injury Notes – n/a
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – RB Kevin Riley ($3,000) See below. The veterans are out, and the youth movement is happening in the Alabama backfield until Jam Miller returns. In addition to his rushing, Riley was also a factor last weekend in the passing game, converting on all six of his targets.
Fade – Richard Young ($4,000) Young took a back seat against Louisiana-Monroe, ceding the starting job to redshirt freshman Kevin Riley who looked explosive with 69 yards on 11 rushing attempts. Young, meanwhile, did find the end-zone but struggled to find much traction with just 19 yards on six attempts. Riley will likely start again on Saturday, and it sounds like Young may have been demoted even further down the depth chart, giving way to another freshman in AK Dear.
Bargain Bin –WR Lotzeir Brooks ($3,000) is another freshman heavy consideration here if Ryan Williams misses another week with the concussion he suffered against Florida State. The 5-star caught four passes on five targets – second behind only Riley – against ULM.
Pivot Play – WR Rico Scott ($3,300) Brooks did start in the slot vs. ULM, but Scott still played 53% of the offensive snaps, which was among the top three with Germie Bernard and Isaiah Horton. If Ryan Williams plays, Scott is out of the equation, but should the sophomore miss another week, Scott can be a cheap option.
Best of the Rest – QB Ty Simpson ($7,700) Wisconsin has played two abysmal offenses thus far, but the Badgers do rank fourth in the country in rush yards allowed on the ground. The Tide rank 111th through the early going in rush success rate. With or without Ryan Williams, the strength of this Bama offense is in the passing game with Simpson and his stud wideouts WR Germie Bernard ($7,000) and WR Isaiah Horton ($5,600). Would pair Simpson with one Bama wideout if starting him.
Injury Notes – RB Jam Miller (Questionable), WR Ryan Williams (Probable)
Clemson vs. Georgia Tech
- Point-Spread: Clem -4
- O/U Total: 52
- Implied Score: Clem 28 – GT 24
- Weather: 80 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Clemson:
Top Play(s) –
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To access to all of theCFFsite’s DFS content, including Weekly Player Projections, become a Heisman member. Click here for membership options.
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