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Arkansas vs. Mississippi
- Point-Spread: Miss -6.5
- O/U Total: 63.5
- Implied Score: Miss 35 – Ark 28.5
- Weather: 88 degrees / 0% rain /3 mph winds
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – QB Taylen Green ($6,900) This was the game folks who invested in Taylen Green in college fantasy circled on the calendar. We knew Green would dominate lesser competition – he did exactly that in 2024 too. Why Green wasn’t rated more highly this offseason was the significant drop-off in SEC play last season where he averaged just 18 FPPG. Does that change in 2025? His consistency has improved so far, completing 70% of his throws so far, and the ankle that hampered him in SEC play last year is no longer an issue, as evidenced by his 151-yard rushing performance last week vs. Arkansas State.
Fade – RB Braylen Russell ($4,400) We’re seeing why RB Mike Washington ($5,900) won the job over Russell in the offseason. The New Mexico transfer is averaging over 10 yards per carry and 6.1 yards after contact, which is dwarfing Russell’s 4.1 YPC average. Barring injury, we’re expecting Green and Washington to dominate much of the carry distribution.
Bargain Bin – WR CJ Brown ($3,600) Arkansas looks to have two solid options in the slot with Brown and Fresno State transfer WR Raylen Sharpe ($4,100). Based on last week, it would appear that Brown is the starter now over Sharpe and has proven capable with seven receptions on nine targets, including two scores in the opening week. It’s narrow, but Brown has run more routes than Sharpe and played about double the number of snaps in Week 2.
Pivot Play – WR Jalen Brown ($3,900) Jalen Brown will be the forgotten man in the starting trio of Arkansas receivers but is tied for the team lead in routes run and touchdowns (2). He’ll see the lowest ownership among the starters.
Best of the Rest – WR O’Mega Blake ($5,900) I didn’t think there would be another Andrew Armstrong-type receiver for the Razorbacks in 2025, but Blake is proving to be such, leading the team with 12 receptions on 15 targets. Not quite the 30% target share that Armstrong had a year ago, but at 24% and double the amount of yards as the next closest Arkansas wideout, Blake is off to a great start.
Injury Notes – n/a
Mississippi:
Top Play(s) – RB Kewan Lacy ($7,600) Lacy took full control of the RB1 job this past week, rushing for 138 yards and a touchdown on 28 attempts. Backup Logan Diggs had just two carries. With a potentially hobbled quarterback on Saturday, expect another full dose of Lacy on the ground.
Fade – WR Cayden Lee ($6,800) or WR De’Zhaun Stribling ($6,200) Strictly GPP plays only, and there’s enough WR options that you can just say no to this situation. WR Trey Wallace ($6,500) has emerged as the team’s WR1 with double the number of targets as Lee and quadruple the amount of yards as Stribling. If you’re looking for a small glimmer of hope, Stribling and Lee both lead the team in routes run this season so they’re still on the field, just not doing a whole lot.
Bargain Bin – TE Dae’Quan Wright ($3,200) No impact against Kentucky in Week 2, after catching four passes for 78 yards and a score in the opener. Wright was still on the field 75.3% of the time against the Wildcats, so he should bounce back in some fashion this week.
Pivot Play – WR Deuce Alexander ($3,200) Alexander is a narrow fourth on the team in routes run and has actually been targeted more than Stribling this season (8). And Alexander actually saw his production increase in the more competitive game against Kentucky, targeted five times while playing over 50% of the snaps.
Best of the Rest – QB Austin Simmons ($7,300) Simmons was one of several Ole Miss players that was listed originally on the injury report this week but taken off on Thursday. Lane Kiffin playing games once again. But that’s actually not the case with Simmons if you’ve been tracking practice reports this week. Both 247 and On3 stated that Simmons has not practiced all week with an ankle injury. He’s expected to play and start, but there’s enough QB options on the slate to sway me away from this risk.
Injury Notes – WR Traylon Ray (out)
Western Michigan vs. Illinois
- Point-Spread: Illini -27
- O/U Total: 50
- Implied Score: Illini 38.5 – WMU 11.5
- Weather: 85 degrees / 8% rain / 6 mph winds
Western Michigan:
Fade – RB Jalen Buckley ($5,000) We’ll roster Buckley when he gets to MACtion. For now, he’s facing a defense in Illinois that is giving up just 2.18 yards per carry on the season. QB Brock Lowry ($4,600) is not worth the risk either even at this cost. If he’s in the winning lineup, its because of his rushing ability, which has flashed in two games, rushing for 103 yards and two scores on 16 attempts. The issue is we already have evidence of how Lowry might perform against a B1G opponent, scoring five fantasy points in the opener vs. Michigan State.
Bargain Bin – Pass-catchers. It looks like we have the starting trio of WMU receivers locked down in Tailique Williams, Aveion Chenault and Baylin Brooks, the latter two of which played over 70% of the snaps against North Texas last week. Production was just minimal, though. Low floor / low ceiling plays, but they’re cheap and usually on the field. TE Blake Bozma was targeted five times in Week 2 with four receptions.
Injury Notes – n/a
Illinois:
Top Play(s) –
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To access to all of theCFFsite’s DFS content, including Weekly Player Projections, become a Heisman member. Click here for membership options.
For one-week access to theCFFsite’s DFS content and Weekly Player Projections, select that option from the 2025 Membership Options.
