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BYU vs. East Carolina
- Point-Spread: BYU -6.5
- O/U Total: 49.5
- Implied Score: BYU 28 – ECU 21.5
- Weather: 77 degrees / 4% rain / 7 mph winds
BYU:
Top Play(s) – RB LJ Martin ($7,000) A healthy LJ Martin, something he hasn’t always been able to be the last two years, is the far and away best player on the BYU offense. Martin has hit 100+ rushing yards in the first two games, and the Cougars are likely to continue leaning on the backfield with a freshman quarterback on the road. Not a mash play because of the ECU defense so far this season, ranking 10th in rush success rate defensively and No. 1 in the AAC in yards allowed per game on the ground.
Fade – QB Bear Bachmeier ($6,600) ECU has undoubtedly been better against the run than the pass, but the Pirates have held opponents to just one passing touchdown in three games, and fewer than 200 passing yards in two of three. Bachmeier has performed well in two games and does provided a rushing element with three scores on the ground so far. It is tough to trust a freshman on the road at night in this situation.
Bargain Bin – TE Carsen Ryan ($3,300) It’s difficult to grade any of the BYU pass-catchers because they haven’t had to do anything yet as the Cougars have dominated their first two opponents. BYU will be forced to throw more this week, so there’s more interest in a player like Ryan whose converted on all five of his targets so far. In the offseason, at least one BYU beat writer predicted Ryan to be among the top three in catches in 2025 for the Cougars, so they plan to incorporate the TE position plenty.
Pivot Play – WR Chase Roberts ($5,300) Team leader in all receiving categories as the established WR1 for BYU with over 1,800 career receiving yards. Just 88 yards receiving in two games, but his output against Stanford in Week 2 is more indicative of what to expect from Roberts on a weekly basis, catching five passes for 88 yards on seven targets.
Best of the Rest – WR Jojo Phillips ($4,400) or WR Parker Kingston ($3,300) Phillips and Kingston ranked 3rd and 4th, respectively, in routes run among BYU pass-catchers, combining for 15 targets in two games. Low volume, but we haven’t seen the BYU starters play a full competitive game just yet.
Injury Notes – n/a
East Carolina:
Top Play(s) – WR Anthony Smith ($6,300) Smith has been the team’s most consistent offensive player so far, leading ECU with 23 receptions on 31 targets, but has not found the end-zone yet. Smith had his breakout performance last week with 11 receptions for 136 yards on 15 targets in the win over Coastal Carolina. We could see a high volume of passing attempts on Saturday night with ECU’s inability to run the football.
Fade – RBs. They’re cheap, but ECU has been horrid running the ball through three games, ranking 111th in rush success rate and 94th in yards per game on the ground. Meanwhile, BYU is the No. 1 rush defense in the country, allowing seven (!) yards per game, limiting Stanford to 19 yards on 24 attempts in Week 2. RB London Montgomery ($3,900) and RB Parker Jenkins ($3,700) are cheap, but they’ll split carries with a bad matchup.
Bargain Bin – WR Brock Spalding ($4,200) Apologies Mr. Spalding, I was not familiar with your game. Not even considered a projected starter coming into the year, Spalding has found a home as the team’s starting slot receiver and is now second on the team in receiving yards (221), having converted on all 13 of his targets. Seems like the coaching staff needs to get Spalding on the field more often as he’s only played 34% of the team’s snaps so far.
Pivot Play – WR Yannick Smith ($6,000) Most likely scenario is DFS players spend up for Anthony Smith or go bargain shopping with Spalding, leaving less ownership on Yannick Smith. Yannick is only averaging 9.7 yards per reception, a steep decline from 16.7 in 2024, but his aDOT remains high at 13.2 yards. Just needs to connect on one of these deep shots from Kadin Houser.
Best of the Rest – QB Katin Houser ($7,800) Houser is 6th nationally in yards per game (324.3) through the air with five touchdowns and one interception in three games. His lowest output being this past week with 293 yards vs. Coastal. Tough to judge how good the BYU pass defense is given the competition faced in Campbell and Stanford, allowing a combined 198 pass yards in those two games. I’d rather play the ECU receivers without Houser, personally, than stack the passing game for the Pirates.
Injury Notes – n/a
Florida vs. Miami
- Point-Spread: Mia -7.5
- O/U Total: 51.5
- Implied Score: Mia 29.5 – UF 22
- Weather: 82 degrees / 35% rain / 9 mph winds
Florida:
Top Play(s) – RB Jadan Baugh ($4,500) The Miami run defense is borderline elite, ranking 9th in rush success rate and 15th in yards allowed per game on the ground. The Canes limited Jeremiyah Love to just 33 yards on the ground in the opener and 27 yards on 14 attempts to Byrum Brown last weekend. With that said, this is a sensible price to pay for Florida’s RB1 in a backfield where its really not the 1A / 1B we thought it would be alongside RB JaKobi Jackson ($3,700). Baugh has nearly four times the amount of rushing yards that Jackson has this season, averaging almost seven yards per carry.
Fade – QB DJ Lagway ($7,000) Lagway should bounce back in some capacity from last week’s performance, mainly because it’s tough to be worse than tossing five interceptions in the loss to LSU. For Lagway to be fantasy-relevant this season in a system that typically doesn’t produce a ton of fantasy points for quarterbacks, he needed to be the 5-star he was coming out of high school. That hasn’t happened.
Bargain Bin – TE Hayden Hansen ($3,700) Hansen has been one of the bright spots for the Florida offense with 13 receptions on 15 targets, and second on the team in receiving yards (117). Hansen also rarely leaves the field, playing 99% of snaps over the last two games.
Pivot Play – WR J. Michael Sturdivant ($4,500) The fourth option in the Florida passing attack but did see season-highs against LSU with nine targets and 85% of snaps played. That was likely a result of being in a pass-heavy script, but won’t we see the same thing on Saturday night as a touchdown underdog? Miami did allow 100+ yards to another boundary receiver in Chas Nimrod vs. South Florida.
Best of the Rest – WR Vernell Brown III ($5,100) or WR Eugene Wilson III ($5,200) I probably wouldn’t have any Florida receivers in my FanDuel lineups, but Brown / Wilson become more appealing on DraftKings as they could be peppered with targets when eventually Florida is in a trailing position in this game. Brown was targeted 12 times vs. LSU last week and now leads the team in most receiving categories. Wilson is second in targets (17) and receptions (14), they just don’t go anywhere, averaging 4.9 yards per reception.
Injury Notes – n/a
Miami:
Top Play(s) – WR Malachi Toney ($6,600) The true freshman leads the Hurricanes in receiving with 228 yards, 18 catches and a touchdown on a team-best 23 targets. Toney has also been extremely efficient with his targets from Carson Beck with a 78% catch rate and zero drops thus far. Six catches in each of the first three games and is preferred on DK over FD because of the scoring settings.
Fade – RB CharMar Brown ($4,400) The North Dakota State struggled with his opportunities against USF, rushing for just 22 yards on nine attempts, bringing his seasonal average to just 3.6 yards per carry. It was thought to happen last week, but RB Jordan Lyle ($3,300) is expected to make his return from the injury suffered against Notre Dame in the opener. Don’t be surprised to see Lyle leapfrog Brown in the RB rotation.
Bargain Bin – WR Keelan Marion ($3,500) Beyond Toney, this looks like a WR-by-committee for the Hurricanes, with Marion an integral part of that rotation, ranked third on the team in targets, receptions and routes run. Although freshman WR Joshua Moore ($4,800) stole the headlines last week with two touchdowns against USF, it doesn’t seem like he’ll steal Marion’s starting job just yet. Marion led Miami with seven targets last week.
Pivot Play – QB Carson Beck ($8,000) Beck is performing like a potential Heisman candidate, completing 80% of his passes for 812 yards and seven touchdowns. The offensive line is one of the best in the nation, giving Beck plenty of time to scan the field, and the WR room is proving to be better, and deeper, than we gave credit for in the offseason. Florida’s high-level numbers aren’t bad, giving up 177 yards per game through the air, but the Gators rank 98th in pass D success rate.
Best of the Rest – RB Mark Fletcher ($6,200) Fletcher has emerged as the team’s RB1 with four rushing touchdowns the last two weeks and over 200 yards on the ground in that span. It will be very interesting, though, to see the backfield dynamic with Jordan Lyle back in the rotation. There’s risk with rostering Fletcher this week compared to last. WR CJ Daniels ($5,600) is looking like the Liberty version of CJ Daniels with a 93% catch rate and three touchdowns. He’s an option every week at this rate.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arizona State vs. Baylor
- Point-Spread: Bay -2.5
- O/U Total: 60.5
- Implied Score: Bay 31.5 – ASU 29
- Weather: 89 degrees / 4% rain / 6 mph winds
Arizona State:
Top Play(s) –
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To access to all of theCFFsite’s DFS content, including Weekly Player Projections, become a Heisman member. Click here for membership options.
For one-week access to theCFFsite’s DFS content and Weekly Player Projections, select that option from the 2025 Membership Options.
