Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To access to all of theCFFsite’s DFS content, including Weekly Player Projections, become a Heisman member. Click here for membership options.
For one-week access to theCFFsite’s DFS content and Weekly Player Projections, select that option from the 2025 Membership Options.
LSU vs Vanderbilt
- Point-Spread: Vandy -2.5
- O/U Total: 49.5
- Implied Score: Vandy 26 – LSU 23.5
- Weather: 77 degrees / 8% rain / 14 mph winds
LSU:
Top Play(s) – WR Kyle Parker ($3,700) Sounds like Aaron Anderson will return from injury on Saturday, but there’s been no need to rush him back to the field either with the way Parker is playing in the slot. The sophomore receiver has caught at least four passes in each of the last three games, scoring twice against SE Louisiana and this past week against South Carolina. This has been a nagging injury for Anderson for a few weeks now, so it would not be surprising to see his reps limited somewhat on Saturday.
Fade – RB Caden Durham ($5,900) Durham always projects well, which gets him slotted in a lot of optimal lineups, but the LSU run game is atrocious, ranking 126th in success rate and 131st in line yards. There’s a better chance than not that Durham does not hit value, which he’s failed to do most of this season (not all his fault).
Bargain Bin – TE Trey’Dez Green ($4,600) Green had the breakout performance we’d been waiting on vs. South Carolina, finishing with 119 yards and a touchdown on a team-high 11 targets. Vanderbilt has not been particularly strong against tight ends this season, allowing 12.3 FPPG to the position.
Pivot Play – QB Garrett Nussmeier ($7,700) We saw some improvements last week from Nussmeier and the LSU passing game, though far from perfect, throwing for 254 yards and a pair of touchdowns against South Carolina. Vanderbilt is in the bottom half of the SEC in yards allowed through the air and rank 93rd in explosive plays allowed through the air. We’ve seen in the last two weeks that this secondary has weaknesses, allowing a combined five passing touchdowns to Utah State and Alabama.
Best of the Rest – WR Barion Brown ($4,400) Brown continues to lead all LSU receivers in routes run, targets (36) and receptions (27), but Parker has been the better player of the two recently, and Aaron Anderson possibly returning to the lineup downgrades him further.
Injury Notes – WR Aaron Anderson (probable)
Vanderbilt:
Top Play(s) – QB Diego Pavia ($7,500) Normally this would be a go for Pavia at $7.5k, and to be fair, a 23-point projection as this salary is definitely worth considering. But Pavia has only scored 16 and 15 fantasy points in his two matchups with SEC opponents. And this is the No. 3 scoring defense in the conference with LSU that is giving up just 11.8 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Pavia still gets top billing for the Dores because projections will dictate how viable a player is first and foremost, but those are reasons to possibly fade.
Bargain Bin – WRs. They’re all cheap and it’s a tight rotation between Junior Sherrill, Tre Richardson and Richie Hoskins, who account for 54% of the team’s receiving production and eight of the 15 receiving touchdowns. Sherrill has been the best of the bunch recently with three TDs in Week 5 vs. Utah State, followed by six catches on 10 targets vs. Alabama the following week.
Pivot Play – TE Eli Stowers ($4,400) Stowers ranks first on the team in targets (36), catches (36) and third in routes run behind the two starting receivers. LSU has struggled somewhat to defend the position this season, allowing 10.9 FPPG to tight ends. He’ll have lower ownership after being a non-factor against Alabama the last time out.
Best of the Rest – RB Sedrick Alexander ($4,800) If you’ve played CFB DFS for several years, you know there are just certain players that you give you headaches? Put them in your lineup and they score five fantasy points. Fade them and they score 20? That’s Alexander for me, but he has been more consistent in 2025, scoring double-digit fantasy points in five of six games. Much of that is due to his usage in the passing game with four receiving touchdowns. LSU is strong defensively against the run, but what’s also enticing about Alexander at this price is that his only competition in the Vandy backfield is Diego Pavia. If you want a reason to fade Alexander, LSU is 9th nationally at limiting explosive running plays which Alexander needs with his limited volume.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arizona vs. Houston
- Point-Spread: Hou -2.5
- O/U Total: 46.5
- Implied Score: Hou 24.5 – Ariz 22
- Weather: 84 degrees / 13% rain / 8 mph winds
Arizona:
Top Play(s) – WR Kris Hutson ($3,900) Since returning from injury in Week 5, Hutson has now been targeted 30 times in the last three weeks, with a season-best 106 yards and a touchdown in the double overtime loss to BYU. At one point in the year, Arizona was playing 7-8 different wide receiver combinations each week. That rotation has tightened significantly in the last several weeks with Hutson leading the way.
Fade – RB Ismail Mahdi ($4,700) Mahdi will be known this season as the heavily-owned running back in Week 6 that obliterated everyone’s lineup by rushing for 30 yards against a horrid Oklahoma State defense. Two weeks later, it appears that he’s been overtaken by RB Kedrick Reescano ($3,200) who rushed for 90 yards and a score vs. BYU last week, leading the team in rushing attempts.
Bargain Bin – WR Chris Hunter ($3,900) At equal salaries, Hutson is the far better play over Hunter, but we’ve seen the junior receiver catch a touchdown in each of the last two games. Hunter is third in targets (31) and receptions (17) but does lead the team in routes run.
Pivot Play – RB Javin Whatley ($4,900) Whatley popped earlier in the year when Kris Hutson was out of the lineup, but his impacts have declined since the first couple weeks. Whatley has been targeted 14 times over the last two games, though, and will have next to nothing in terms of ownership with Hutson/Hunter being much cheaper.
Best of the Rest – QB Noah Fifita ($7,200) If Arizona succeeds offensively against this Houston defense, it’s more likely to be on the ground versus through the air, so Fifita is closer to a fade than a play. The Cougars are 9th in pass D success rate, 36th in limiting explosive pass plays and giving up just 12.2 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Injury Notes – n/a
Houston:
Top Play(s) – WR Amare Thomas ($4,600) The UAB transfer has posted two 100-yard receiving performances in the last three games with a combined 26 targets in that stretch. Two of the opponents were lowly Oklahoma State and Oregon State, which has to be taken into account, but Thomas also had 70 yards and a score against the best defense in the B12 in Texas Tech as well.
Fade – QB Conner Weigman ($7,300) If you rostered Weigman last week in DFS, you likely came away with some coin as the A&M transfer scored 28.9 fantasy points in the blowout win over Oklahoma State. That’s the third time in four games in which Weigman has surpassed at least 23 fantasy points. Arizona will present a far tougher matchup than any of those teams, ranked No. 3 in the country in pass D success rate and allowing only 15 FPPG to quarterbacks. Half of the opponents Arizona has faced this season have not surpassed 100 yards passing.
Bargain Bin – TE Tanner Koziol ($3,900) Koziol and Amare Thomas’ salaries have essentially flipped now with the recent uptick in production from the UAB transfer. Koziol still has been the most consistent performer for Houston this season, catching at least four passes in every game outside of the Texas Tech matchup (understandable). Arizona limited opposing tight ends to just 3.3 FPPG this season.
Pivot Play – WR Stephon Johnson ($4,200) Major risk if you play Johnson who has converted on just 13 of his 24 targets this season but rarely leaves the field playing over 80% of the team’s offensive snaps. Johnson’s 21.2 YPC average is best on the team for players with more than two receptions, with a 15.5 aDOT. This could come into play as Arizona is just 79th in explosive pass plays allowed, as opponents have 20 pass plays of 15+ yards or more against the Wildcats this season.
Best of the Rest – RB Dean Connors ($7,100) Lean towards no on playing Connors, but he could get a bigger share of the pie in the backfield on Saturday with Stacy Sneed already announced out for the game. Arizona is 4th in the Big 12 in yards allowed on the ground and only giving up 16.3 FPPG to opposing backfields this season. Advanced data paints a slightly different picture, with the Wildcats ranked 59th in success rate and 78th in explosive run plays allowed. Unfortunately, Houston usually isn’t equipped to take advantage of that.
Injury Notes – RB Stacy Sneed (out)
Baylor vs. TCU
- Point-Spread: TCU -3
- O/U Total: 66
- Implied Score: TCU 34.5 – Bay 31.5
- Weather: 80 degrees / 14% rain / 12 mph winds
Baylor:
Top Play(s) – QB Sawyer Robertson ($8,900) Baylor has a plethora of options at receiver and tight end to choose from, so our top spot lands on the triggerman who leads the country in passing, averaging 343 YPG. Conversely, TCU is 14th of 16 teams in yards allowed through the air, ranking 102nd in pass D success rate and 118th in explosive plays given up in the passing game. Hard to see a path to which Robertson doesn’t hit a minimum of 20 fantasy points, unless a healthy Bryson Washington vultures a bunch of touchdowns.
Bargain Bin – WR Kobe Prentice ($3,500) or WR Kole Wilson ($3,700) Things that are unpredictable in life – the weather, traffic jams and which Baylor WR is the one to own each week. Prentice still doesn’t get much playing time, only on the field about 35% of the time despite having a team-best six receiving touchdowns. Wilson’s production has declined since his Week 1 performance but has caught a touchdown in two of the last three games.
Pivot Play – TE Michael Trigg ($5,000) Didn’t think coming into the year that Michael Trigg would be Baylor’s best fantasy option as he is the No. 1 tight end currently in college fantasy football in points scored. Trigg’s production has been sporadic, but when he hits, he hits big, with three performances of 22 fantasy points or more. TCU had all sorts of trouble last week handling Kansas State’s Garrett Oakley, giving up 71 yards and two scores.
Best of the Rest – RB Bryson Washington ($8,300) Would lean towards not rostering Bryson Washington given his price tag with the mid-tier options at RB being very playable on the slate. Granted, Washington was returning from injury, but his attempts have been declining since Week 4. If TCU does something well defensively, it is limiting the run, ranked 18th in success rate. WR Josh Cameron ($5,600) is always an option but want to point out a forgotten WR Ashtyn Hawkins ($4,500) as well. He’ll see less ownership than Prentice or Wilson because of his price tag but has played 94% of the offensive snaps in the last two games.
Injury Notes – n/a
TCU:
Top Play(s) –
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To access to all of theCFFsite’s DFS content, including Weekly Player Projections, become a Heisman member. Click here for membership options.
For one-week access to theCFFsite’s DFS content and Weekly Player Projections, select that option from the 2025 Membership Options.
