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Utah State vs. UNLV
- Point-Spread: UNLV -6
- O/U Total: 71
- Implied Score: UNLV 38.5 – Utah St 32.5
- Weather: Dome
Utah St:
Top Play(s) – QB Bryson Barnes ($7,600) What an absolute dream matchup for a CFB DFS night slate with a 71-point game total and narrow-ish spread between the No. 1 and No. 2 scoring offenses in the Mountain West. Barnes and his counterpart in this game Anthony Colandrea are ridiculously underpriced compared to the more recognizable names on the slate, and a game stack with both QBs is entirely plausible. For Barnes, he faces one of the worst pass defenses in the conference and country as the Rebels allow over 24 FPPG to quarterbacks, ranking 101st in pass D success rate and 113th in explosive plays allowed.
Bargain Bin – TE Broc Lane ($3,700) Minimal interest for a player that has had five or fewer receiving yards in five of nine games played this year. The only argument in favor of Lane is that UNLV is giving up around 11.7 FPPG to the tight end position this season.
Pivot Play – RB Miles Davis ($5,900) or RB Javen Jacobs ($4,300) Running backs have fared well this season against the UNLV run defense that is second to last in the MWC in yards allowed on the ground and giving up over 32 FPPG to the RB position. If UNLV’s matchup with New Mexico earlier in the year is any indication, I believe we can see both RBs be a major factor in the passing game on Saturday. Jacobs and Davis rank third and fourth on the team, respectively, in receptions, with 51 receptions and five receiving touchdowns between them. Against New Mexico, the Lobos’ RB1 Damon Bankston had five catches for 122 yards and a pair of touchdowns coming out of the backfield.
Best of the Rest – WR Braden Pegan ($5,900) or WR Brady Boyd ($4,600) Extremely condensed target share for Utah State at the wide receiver position between Pegan and Boyd. The only other WR that is involved in the Utah State passing game is Anthony Garcia who is listed at QB at both sites. That said, we think this is a one or the other situation and not stack both. Pegan has scored 20+ fantasy points three times this season, Boyd once. Neither of those occurrences came in the same game. Of the two, we prefer Pegan. The last two receivers to post 90+ receiving yards against UNLV this season play outside.
Injury Notes – n/a
UNLV:
Top Play(s) – QB Anthony Colandrea ($7,700) Lock in Colandrea at one of the QB spots with the seventh highest QB projection for theCFFSite for the entire weekend, and highest projection on the slate. 30+ fantasy points in each of the last four games for Colandrea, facing a Utah State defense that is giving up just over 27 FPPG to QBs this season, which is right at Colandrea’s projection for the week.
Fade – RB Jaylon Glover ($4,200) I’d be cautious of playing Glover, despite scoring 17+ fantasy points in two of the his last three games. Situation matters and both were blowouts. In competitive games, Glover is the RB3.
Bargain Bin – WRs Not Named Jaden Bradley. Any of the top four UNLV receivers are playable in this matchup where Utah State gives up the most fantasy points to WRs on the entire slate (47.7). WR DaeDae Reynolds ($4,200) has been hit or miss this season but is second on the team in routes run and tied for the team lead in receiving touchdowns with Jaden Bradley and WR Troy Omeire ($3,300). In UNLV’s last competitive matchup against New Mexico in Week 10, WR Koy Moore ($3,000) ran the second most routes of any Rebel wideout, as he’s taken over the starting slot role it appears.
Pivot Play – RB Jai’Den Thomas ($7,100) Thomas’ status will be one to monitor pregame as he left the contest in the third quarter vs. Colorado State last week due to injury and did not return. If healthy, Thomas is one of the top big-play running backs in the country, averaging 7.6 YPC, while also a factor in the receiving game, which included an 11-catch performance against New Mexico in Week 10. If Thomas could not go, RB Keyvone Lee ($5,300) instantly moves up the priority list, ranked third on the team with five rushing scores.
Best of the Rest – WR Jaden Bradley ($5,700) Team leader in all receiving categories with 25% of the team’s target share and over double the amount of receiving yards as the next closest UNLV wideout. Utah State has now allowed three 100-yard receivers in three of the last four games and 90+ receiving yards to a WR in four out of the last five.
Injury Notes – n/a
Florida vs. Ole Miss
- Point-Spread: Miss -15.5
- O/U Total: 53.5
- Implied Score: Miss 34.5 – UF 19
- Weather: 70 degrees / 6% rain / 8 mph winds
Florida:
Top Play(s) – RB Jadan Baugh ($6,900) Usage remains high for the Florida RB1 with 18 or more touches in each of the last five games. Ole Miss can be run on, ranked 13th in the SEC in yards allowed on the ground and 82nd nationally in rush D success rate. Backfields are averaging around 21 FPPG against the Rebels, and Baugh isn’t sharing the Florida backfield with anyone at the moment.
Fade – QB DJ Lagway ($6,400) If we’re power ranking QBs on this slate, Lagway comes in just one spot ahead of whatever Purdue is trotting out these days. The sophomore QB was benched against Kentucky in favor of Tramell Jones Jr., and another turnover-prone performance could wind up in the same result.
Best of the Rest – Pass-Catchers. It’s tough to consider anyone with Florida’s QB play this second half of the season, especially considering this is going to be a very high-scoring slate. We need all the points we can get and those are unlikely to come from the Florida passing game. WR Vernell Brown ($4,800) had just 22 yards receiving but was targeted a team-high 8 times, while playing 93% of the team’s snaps.
Injury Notes – WR Vernell Brown (probable), WR Eugune Wilson (out), WR Dallas Wilson (out), RB Ja’Kobi Jackson (out)
Ole Miss:
Top Play(s) – RB Kewan Lacy ($7,700) Want to see Exhibit A of what you want in a college fantasy running back? Lacy ranks 1st in the country in rushing attempts (by 28 carries), 1st in rushing touchdowns, 2nd in yards, has 22 receptions on 26 targets, and his 201 carries are 177 more than the next closest Ole Miss running back. Top play for Ole Miss every single week.
Pivot Play – QB Trinidad Chambliss ($9,300) Nothing wrong with playing a quarterback that has scored 20+ fantasy points in each of the last eight games. The issue is that at this salary, we need 30+ at a minimum. For as bad as Florida has been this season, the defense is only allowing 16.3 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Best of the Rest – Pass-Catchers. No player for the Rebels has more than 19% of the target share or more than four receiving touchdowns. WR Harrison Wallace ($4,800) is the top choice of the group if all salaries were equal, as he’s led or been tied for the team lead in targets in each of the last four games. Dumpster diving with WR Deuce Alexander ($3,600), who is second on the team in targets, or WR Winston Watkins ($3,700) who should get some run in a potential blowout, are also options. Watkins converted on all five targets thrown his way vs. the Citadel last week for 80 yards and a score.
Injury Notes – n/a
UCLA vs. Ohio State
- Point-Spread: OSU -31.5
- O/U Total: 49.5
- Implied Score: OSU 40.5 – UCLA 9
- Weather: 62 degrees / 66% rain / 11 mph winds
UCLA:
No.
Ohio State:
Fade –
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To access to all of theCFFsite’s DFS content, including Weekly Player Projections, become a Heisman member. Click here for membership options.
For one-week access to theCFFsite’s DFS content and Weekly Player Projections, select that option from the 2025 Membership Options.
