NUMBERS TO KNOW — AAC

A lot of research goes into putting together theCFFsite Draft Guide, but I wanted to take a deeper look into the numbers and advanced data behind some of the teams and players. Ever wonder the reasoning behind one of our rankings or projections? These numbers will tell part of the story.  We hit on all 131 teams below, pinpointing a specific stat or trend that should be relevant to the 2022 college fantasy season. Enjoy! 

—Mike—

	Despite having mediocre to below-average quarterback play for most of last year, the UCF offense performed well in the first season under Gus Malzahn. The Knights scored 5.14 points per quality possession and were 21st nationally in offensive points scored per opportunity – third in the AAC behind Cincinnati and Houston. We’re expecting the arrival of transfer QB John Rhys Plumlee to unlock the offense.
	According to Pro Football Focus, Corey Kiner broke tackles on 30% of his rushing attempts last year at LSU. Assuming he wins the job, Kiner will be running behind an offensive line that helped Cincinnati running backs score the 20th-most fantasy points in CFF last season and brings back all five starters.
	No wide receiver has accounted for more than 25% of the target share in the three seasons of Mike Houston’s tenure as head coach. Conversely, the WR3 averages 17.5% of the team target share. Holton Ahlers likely will spread the wealth amongst his receivers, and with 41% of last year’s production gone, that feels even more certain.
	The 12.6% target share from Houston’s WR2 last season was the lowest under Dana Holgorsen in the last eight seasons. Yearly target share average in the seven years leading up to 2021 was 19.0%. However, Nathaniel Dell’s 32.5% target share last year was the highest of any WR under Holgorsen during that eight-year span. With KeSean Carter returning, along with the additions of freshman Matthew Golden and transfers Sam Brown (West Virginia) and Cody Jackson (Oklahoma), we expect the numbers to balance out a bit more.
	Fantasy owners will get a ‘steal’ if they can identify the player most likely to lockdown the RB1 spot this season between Jeyvon Ducker, Brandon Thomas or someone else. New OC Tim Cramsey typically leans on just one guy in the backfield, with his RB1 accounting for 45% of the volume share over the last six seasons. Between Brenden Knox and Rasheen Ali, they comprised 54% of Marshall’s rushing touchdowns the last three seasons with Cramsey calling plays.
	The most glaring sign as to why Navy has not performed up to par the last few seasons? Quarterback play. The Midshipmen have not had a quarterback finish inside the top 150 in the last two years from a FPPG perspective. Navy’s QB1 from 2014 to 2019 accounted for 31.7% of the rushing attempts, but over the past two seasons, that number has plummeted to 19.3%.
	When Rhett Lashlee was at SMU from 2018-19, the Mustangs averaged over 41 PPG, won 10 games, and scored 30 or more points in 11 of the 13 contests. Other notable Lashlee trends include: WR1 played in the slot in three of the last four seasons, the TE1 under Lashlee has combined for 23 touchdowns over the last four years, and his RB1 has accounted for 49.1% of the team’s rushing touchdowns over that span.
	The Bulls have only won three games in two years under head coach Jeff Scott, averaging just 23 PPG in his tenure. However, the Bulls are moving at a brisk pace offensively, averaging just over 71 plays per game, which is top one-third nationally, and return 84.3% of their offensive production from last year. Pressure is on Scott to at least double last season’s win total (2-10).
	OC Danny Langsdorf has not called plays at the collegiate level since he was at Nebraska in 2017. We’re most likely ignoring the Owls in CFF this season, as the roster needs rebuilding, but looking at Langsdorf’s past, the utilization of his QB1 is noteworthy. Tommy Armstrong combined for 211 carries and 15 rushing touchdowns in his two years as a starter with the Cornhuskers under Langsdorf. While not overly impressive as passers, D’Wan Mathis or Quincy Patterson could potentially provide value with their running ability.
	Head coach Willie Fritz’s addition of Jim Svoboda as offensive coordinator adds intrigue to the Green Wave play calling. Fritz has not had a team in the last eight years that averaged more than 32 passing attempts per game. Svoboda’s offenses at Central Missouri averaged 35.5 att/g and 30.5 FPPG. On a fantasy PPG basis, Svododa’s offense would have yielded five Top 15 CFF quarterbacks during that time. Also of note, projected Tulane WR1 Shae Wyatt posted impressive numbers (68-1,452-12) at UCM back in 2019 under Svoboda.
	The 14.5% target share from the WR4 under Philip Montgomery is the highest mark at the FBS level over the last eight seasons. During that stretch, his WR3 comes in at 16.3%, which is 10th-best in the country. Why? There is no involvement of running backs or tight ends in this passing scheme. In any given week, Tulsa could potentially have four fantasy-relevant receivers.