Louisville vs. UCF
Point-Spread: UCF -5.5
O/U Total: 61.5
Implied Score: UCF 33.5 – UL 28
Weather: 86 degrees / 100% rain / 7 mph winds
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – QB Malik Cunningham ($8,300) Hope is that last week was the aberration and not the norm. Turnovers were a struggle for Cunningham with two interceptions and a fumble and failed to account for a touchdown for the first time in 30 games. That’s enough of a resume to think Cunningham bounces back in this spot, and our projections show that at 29.5 fantasy points. Turnovers aside, the completion percentage was good for Cunningham (72.7%) and did seem to have a connection with one of his new starting wideouts.
Fade – RBs other than Tiyon Evans ($6,400) The hype around Evans was building the last 2-3 weeks of fall camp, and he performed well in his first start, rushing for 89 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries. Because of the perceived depth UL has in the backfield, plus Cunningham vulturing TDs, some were scared off of whomever became RB1. Evans appears to be the clear favorite, though, garnering 62% of the offensive snaps vs. Syracuse. No other RB played more than 24%.
Bargain Bin – TE Marshon Ford ($3,000) Too cheap for a player that led the Cardinals in receptions a year ago. Minimal output last week on just two targets but was on the field for 72.4% of snaps and ran a route on 52% of pass plays.
Pivot Play – WR Ahmari Huggins-Bruce ($5,300) Likely to see very little ownership percentage as DFS players flock to either Tyler Hudson or some of the bargain bin options. Despite being our projected WR1, AHB saw the fourth-most snaps of any receiver, behind both Dee Wiggins and Braden Smith. Still managed to out-produce both players with 62 yards and three catches on three targets, with an explosive 6.20 yards per route run. He’s the second best receiver on the team.
Best of the Rest – WR Tyler Hudson ($6,400) Was the clear top option in the UL passing game with 8-102-0 on nine targets. No other Louisville player had more than three. Probably should have seen this coming considering Hudson posted over 1,200 yards and eight touchdowns last year for Central Arkansas, including 118 receiving yards against Arkansas State in last year’s opener.
Injury Notes – n/a
Central Florida:
Top Play(s) – QB John Rhys Plumlee ($8,900) Did you see Garrett Shrader carve up this same Louisville defense for 330 total yards, three scores, average over 7.4 yards per carry and force five missed tackles? JRP is better than Shrader at most everything on the football field. Should Louisville fail to make the Week 1 to Week 2 jump, this could get ugly. With 100% rain in the forecast, look for UCF to utilize JRP on the ground more than they did last week.
Fade – WR Ryan O’Keefe ($8,000) I’ll be curious to see how this plays out over the course of the season, but I’m not sure the move to JRP at quarterback helps O’Keefe. (1) He’s simply too pricy to consider on this slate as it is. (2) O’Keefe’s 10.2 aDOT and 1.50 yards per route run are better suited for a high-volume passing offense like UCF had previously with Dillon Gabriel. I know JRP threw the ball 31 times last week, but that is not the norm for a Gus Malzahn offense. O’Keefe will need to see heavy volume to produce up to his salary.
Bargain Bin – RB Johnny Richardson ($4,700) Don’t foresee UCF blowing out Louisville, but backup RB Johnny Richardson has always produced when given the chance with a career 8.3 YPC average and frequently involved in the Knights’ passing game – four targets vs. South Carolina State. There isn’t any other option for UCF below his price point.
Pivot Play – WR Kobe Hudson ($4,900) Javon Baker was getting some fall camp pub, so his performance wasn’t totally out of the blue, but also surprising to see him out-perform Hudson by a considerable margin. The former Auburn transfer notched just one target vs. South Carolina State, but also played 63 of the 85 total offensive snaps. 12 more than Baker did. That’s the pivot play if trying to get and get leverage vs. the field.
Best of the Rest – RB Isaiah Bowser ($6,500) The Northwestern transfer had 22 rushing attempts in a blowout. Averaged 19.8 carries per contest in 2021, and that included multiple games where he wasn’t 100%. Fully healthy, he’s getting the rock. TE Kemore Gamble ($5,300) produced in Week 1 with 3-77-1 on four targets but came on just 21 snaps and plays in a system that doesn’t consistently produce big tight end numbers.
Injury Notes – n/a
Boise State vs. New Mexico
Point-Spread: Boise -16.5
O/U Total: 44
Implied Score: Boise 30.5 – NM 13.5
Weather: 94 degrees / 15% rain / 10 mph winds
Boise State:
Top Play(s) – WR Stefan Cobbs ($5,300) Quite day from Cobbs vs. Oregon State, but the opportunities were there to produce, if not for poor quarterback play. Just four receptions for minimal yardage and 0.93 yards per route run, but had a team-high nine targets. Tough to see him not matching his salary, though out-performing it will depend on the quarterbacks. Speaking of…
Fade – QB Hank Bachmeier ($6,000) I suppose Bachmeier could be considered a pivot play if you think that Malik Cunningham is in for a second-straight bad outing, but I don’t see how you can enter the Boise State quarterback into your lineup with any confidence. Not only does it sound like the Broncos will make a concerted effort to run the football on Friday, but there is a greater than 50% chance we see backup Taylen Green enter the game. He gave the offense a different look against Oregon State, completing nearly 68% of his throws and looked damn good on his 74-yard touchdown scamper.
Bargain Bin – WR Latrell Caples ($4,400) Really didn’t hear a peep from Boise State writers about Caples during the offseason, leading to some thinking that he would not be in the starting rotation. Not only did Caples start, but was tied with Cobbs for offensive snaps played, and was second on the team with six targets.
Pivot Play – RB Ashton Jeanty ($4,900) Boise State might be getting desperate here after a sub-par season in 2021, followed up by a disastrous Week 1 showing offensively. The changeover at quarterback appears to be happening, but will we see it at running back as well with the 4-star freshman? I think Holani still has a hold on the RB1 job for now, but Jeanty is clearly one of the best playmakers already on this offense. Six receptions on six targets last week, and got some work in the running game as well once subbed in for the ineffective Holani.
Best of the Rest – RB George Holani ($5,200) Looked a lot like the first half of 2021 for Holani who averaged under a yard per carry. Poor running blocking was the issue yet again for the Broncos. Top Boise State beat writer at the Idaho Statesman is projecting 100 yards for Holani this week as the Broncos make running the football a priority. TE Riley Smith ($3,800) played the most snaps of any Boise State skill position player vs. Oregon State, posting four receptions on five targets.
Injury Notes – WR/TE Austin Bolt is out for the season.
New Mexico:
13.5-point implied total for the Lobos means we can fade here. If asking for pain, New Mexico does appear to have an established top two at receiver with Geordon Porter ($5,000) and Luke Wysong ($4,100) who combined for eight of the 16 targets that were distributed. QB Miles Kendrick ($5,200) had an efficient day vs. Maine last week, completing 14-of-17 passes for 170 yards and two touchdowns, but this is essentially a triple-option offense that New Mexico runs. Hence why we hammered the under on his passing props this week. RB Sherod White ($4,700) had a great performance with 22.3 fantasy points scoring on two rushing touchdowns but sounds as though starting running back Nathaniel Jones $3,600) is returning from suspension. Jones is one of the highest-rated recruits in program history. Me stating this is more of a reason to fade White, as opposed to playing Jones, fwiw.
