Florida State vs. Louisville
Point-Spread: FSU -2.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: FSU 29.5 – UL 27
Weather: 82 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – QB Jordan Travis ($8,000) Straw that stirs the drink for the Florida State offense. No receiver with more than 19% target share – same as last year. Three-headed backfield with multiple options to choose from – same as last year. Travis continues to make strides as a passer, already completing 65% of his throws and we really haven’t seen him take off and run much yet either. The most bankable option for our lineups from the Seminoles.
Fade – WR Malik McClain ($5,900) McClain saw his snap count cut in half vs. LSU from the prior week and has been targeted just three times so far. I’d put McClain at fifth or sixth among Florida State pass-catchers as far as pecking order on the team yet is the second-most expensive. Hard pass.
Bargain Bin – WR Johnny Wilson ($3,000) Surprised to see Wilson listed here at min pricing. Saw the most snaps of any wide receiver vs. LSU and was targeted six times with three receptions. A massive specimen at 6-foot-7, Wilson’s aDOT of 15.3 and 3.47 yards per route run are signals that he’s due for a big play here in the coming weeks.
Pivot Play – WR Mycah Pittman ($6,700) Feels like Pittman has been overpriced his entire college career in DFS, and don’t understand his salary here whatsoever. Still playing the most offensive snaps of the FSU receivers through two games, and was targeted five times against both Duquesne and LSU, but really has little to show for it. Because of his usage, still think he’s in play here as a low-owned GPP option.
Best of the Rest – WR Ontaria Wilson ($3,700) FSU doesn’t have a receiver with over 19% of the target share, but that might be different had Wilson played in Week 0. The senior receiver had a career day vs. LSU with seven receptions for 102 yards and two touchdowns on 10 targets. FSU was forced to throw more than usual as LSU set out to stop the run that night, so I wouldn’t suggest this as becoming a trend for Wilson, but he looks to be the team’s WR1 for now. And still at a discount. RB Treshaun Ward ($5,100) will be heavily owned, facing a Louisville defense that ranks 117th in run defense through two games. A lot to be made about how poor the Cardinals are in defending the run, but that’ll happen when you face combinations of JRP/Isaiah Bowser and Garrett Shrader/Sean Tucker in the first two games. Not much you can do with that. What was noticable during the LSU game was the disparity in numbers (in a close game) between Ward vs. the rest of the running backs. 15 carries and 56% of the offensive snaps compared to just 7 attempts and 23% of snaps for backup Trey Benson.
Injury Notes – n/a
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – QB Malik Cunningham ($7,500) Another uneven performance from Cunningham last week on the road at UCF. Led the team to victory and did score 28 fantasy points as he rushed for 100+ yards, but completed just 48% of his throws with zero passing touchdowns. HC Scott Satterfield put the blame some on coaching but it’s clear that there is a transition period with three new starting receivers this year that Cunningham has to work with. Offense has looked out of sorts the majority of two games.
Fade – WR Dee Wiggins ($4,300) Despite playing different positions, we saw Wiggins’ snap counts take a hit with slot receiver Braden Smith back in the lineup last week. An ineffective player at Miami, Wiggins has just two receptions on six targets with a drop through two weeks. I’d look to the other Louisville pass-catchers.
Bargain Bin – TE Marshon Ford ($3,900) We saw more involvement from Ford last week with four targets vs. UCF, which would have results in four receptions had the tight end not had a pair of drops. WR Braden Smith ($3,800) saw his first extended action of the year, out-snapping Wiggins, and was second on the team with six targets against the Knights.
Pivot Play – WR Ahmari Huggins-Bruce ($5,600) Tyler Hudson is undoubtedly the WR1 for the Cardinals, garnering 32% of the target share, but AHB needs more opportunities with just six targets in two games. Has converted those into five receptions, leads all wide receivers at 3.06 yards per route run and is averaging 20.8 yards per catch – also best on the team. Think both AHB and Braden Smith get more run this week with, hopefully, Dee Wiggins being phased out of the rotation.
Best of the Rest – RB Tiyon Evans ($5,600) 74% volume share for Evans among Louisville running backs this season, but some cause for concern here. (1) Florida State will have the advantage in the trenches in this matchup, and have allowed just 53 total yards in two games to opposing RB1s. (2) See below as Louisville is possibly getting some reinforcements in the backfield. According to Satterfield, “I think we’ll probably see Cooley this week” and “I think you’ll see probably more Jahwar Jordan as well.”
Injury Notes – RB Jalen Mitchell ($3,000) is questionable with minor injury. RB Trevion Cooley ($3,000) was hampered late in fall camp with what was also described as a ‘minor injury’, with Satterfield stating he’ll get reps in this game.
Air Force vs. Wyoming
Point-Spread: AF -14.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: AF 30.5 – Wyo 16
Weather: 61 degrees / 19% rain / 7 mph winds
Air Force:
Top Play(s) – Brad Roberts ($7,600) Fast start for a guy that was rumored to be less than 100% this offseason. Going to have to bite the bullet with high ownership for Roberts who’s averaging 29 FPPG through two games, and I’m personally not scared off by Wyoming’s run defense that is allowing 3.44 YPC on the season. Tulsa can’t run the football, and Northern Colorado is an FCS opponent. Against Illinois, the Cowboys defense was shredded by Chase Brown. Dig deeper and Wyoming is just 69th in rush defense success rate.
Fade – Omar Fattah ($3,000) Air Force’s third-string full back has only seen 11 carries in two games, averaged just 3.0 yards per carry and fumble twice last week vs. Colorado. Doubt he sees anything meaningful unless there is a ton of garbage time late.
Bargain Bin – RB Emmanuel Michel ($3,500) The fourth option in the running game, Michel has proven capable in the past with 123 rushing yards and a touchdown in the season-finale last year against UNLV. And that was a game in where Roberts did play so it’s possible Michel finds success in a blowout scenario.
Pivot Play – QB Haaziq Daniels ($6,000) The pivot play not only for Air Force but if you dare fade one of the two quarterbacks in the first matchup. Obviously can be hit or miss considering the style of offense where the Falcons have run the ball 93% of the time so far. Here’s my suggestion. Do not play Daniels and Roberts in the same lineup. Just once in the last 13 games have BOTH players scored more than 20 fantasy points. Look back to last year – it’s either one or the other.
Best of the Rest – RB John Lee Eldridge III ($4,900) Every CFF season, there is a name that pops that I’ve never heard of in my life prior. Eldridge is that name this year, averaging 10.8 YPC through two games. Ultimate pivot would be WR David Cormier ($5,500) that does see starter snaps but has yet to record a single target all year. GPP play only. If playing Daniels, you simply must pair him with a receiver to win a GPP in my opinion. WR Dane Kinamon ($3,500) would be the play, leading the team with three (yes just three) targets. Kinamon has played 60% of the team’s offensive snaps this season, more than Roberts.
Injury Notes – n/a
Wyoming:
Top Play(s) – RB Titus Swen ($5,900) Best Wyoming play by default and not a guy we need to have in our lineups. I’ve seen projections elsewhere that have the Cowboys scoring far fewer points than the Vegas implied total, so I’d steer clear for the most part. After averaging over five yards a carry vs. Illinois in the opener, the Cowboys have struggled to find running room in the last two weeks against Tulsa and Northern Colorado (3.49 YPC). Not exactly Alabama there. The Air Force defense has yet to allow a running back over 60 yards in a game this season and are 23rd in Defensive success rate against the run so far.
Fade – QB Andrew Peasley ($5,400) Simply no reason to get cute here with the three other available quarterbacks to us on the slate. Peasley is a distant fourth. Air Force ranks second in the conference in pass defense, but really by default after playing Northern Colorado and Colorado to start the year.
Bargain Bin – TE Parker Christensen ($3,000) Full disclosure – outside of the opening week, I haven’t watched any Wyoming football. So, I’m not sure why TE Treyton Welch has been relegated to backup duties, but it’s been Christensen who has seen the most attention over the last two games. Nine receptions on 11 targets over the span – tied for second behind Cobbs.
Pivot Play – WR Joshua Cobbs ($4,800) Unlikely that Wyoming can get away with just running the ball as a two-touchdown dog. The 6-foot-4 Cobbs isn’t Isaiah Neyor, but he’s doing a solid job of filling his shoes with 12 receptions on 22 targets in three games. 29% target share.
Best of the Rest – WR Wyatt Wieland ($4,100) Secondary option behind Cobbs in the Wyoming passing game. Had a season-high eight targets vs. Northern Colorado last week. Just 1.33 yards per route run so far more of a possession receiver.
Injury Notes – n/a
