Virginia vs. Syracuse
Point-Spread: Cuse -10
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: Cuse 32 – UVA 22.5
Weather: Dome
Virginia:
Top Play(s) – WR Keytaon Thompson ($5,800) By far the most effective receiver UVA’s had this season with 18 receptions on 24 targets, topping 100 yards last week against Old Dominion. Syracuse’s pass defense numbers look good but have allowed multiple 100-yard receivers already this season. One of the highest floors of any player on this slate.
Fade – No other WR beyond the top three. The aforementioned Thompson, Dontayvion Wicks ($6,000) and Lavel Davis ($4,600) all have over 20 targets this season, accounting for 81% of the team’s total target share. Nex closest is tight end Grant Misch with nine. Wouldn’t even screw around rostering anyone outside of the top three receivers. You’ll just have to deal with the drops if selecting Wicks or Davis in your lineups as they’ve combined for seven of them already.
Bargain Bin – RB Xavier Brown ($3,000) That leads right into our min priced option in Brown who should see increased work vs. Syracuse after rushing for 88 yards on nine carries last week. Coaching quotes back this up with HC Tony Elliott calling Brown the running back “with the most tenacity out of all the guys.”
Pivot Play – RB Perris Jones ($5,400) Technically speaking, Jones is still the start, did play the most offensive snaps against Old Dominion and did still average over five yards a carry vs. the Monarchs. But we’re seeing both Mike Hollins and Xavier Brown get extended looks in the backfield and those have increased with each week. Syracuse is allowing just 13.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s so far.
Best of the Rest – QB Brennan Armstrong ($6,600) Would be tough to sit Armstrong with a limited number of quarterbacks available on the slate, but we don’t have a high projected total for UVA this week. Have to think that Armstrong’s former OC Robert Anae will be feeding the Syracuse defense coordinator some inside tips on how to best limit his former quarterback this week. Syracuse is 44th in pass play success rate defensively and shut down Aidan O’Connell much of last Saturday before that game went off the rails.
Injury Notes – WR Billy Kemp is out due to injury.
Syracuse:
Top Play(s) – QB Garrett Shrader ($7,800) Credit to Purdue last week who made Shrader look like the 2021 version of himself, completing just 44.8% of his passes and looking completely uncomfortable when dropping back to pass. Still managed to get there with 260+ total yards and three touchdowns, scoring 29 fantasy points. UVA’s pass defense looks ‘ok’ on the surface, but when you’re giving up 20+ fantasy points to both Hayden Wolff and Tommy DeVito, there’s some issues on the back end. UVA is 105th in pass play success rate defensively.
Fade – WR Damian Alford ($5,000) Alford did play over 63% of the offensive snaps in the win over Purdue last week but does not appear to be a priority option in the passing game anymore. May bump up one slot in the pecking order due to injury (see below) but is now sixth on the team with just five targets in three games.
Bargain Bin – WR Devaughn Cooper ($3,000) Played 54% of snaps vs. Purdue and is third on the team in targets with 11. Not a priority play by any stretch, but far better value than Alford. Rotation should tighten a bit with the Isaiah Jones injury.
Pivot Play – WR Oronde Gadsden ($6,400) Gadsden is coming off a career day with six receptions for 112 yards and two scores and looks to be thriving in the tight end/wide receiver role that Keytaon Thompson played in under OC Robert Anae a year ago. Led all receivers in snaps played vs. Purdue and is second on the team in targets (14).
Best of the Rest – RB Sean Tucker ($9,100) Tucker is always in play for us as a dual-threat weapon out of the backfield, leading the team with 18 targets. Tough matchup, though, against a UVA defense that has really limited opposing run games, allowing just 11.1 FPPG to RB1s this season. Chase Brown scored just 14 fantasy points against Virginia – a season-low. WR Courtney Jackson ($3,800) is fourth on the team with 10 targets.
Injury Notes – WR Isaiah Jones is out of the season due to injury.
Nevada vs. Air Force
Point-Spread: AF -24.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: AF 35.5 – Nevada 11
Weather: 70 degrees / 0% rain / 0 mph winds
Nevada:
Absolutely not to the Nevada quarterbacks. RB Toa Taua ($6,200) is probably a fade at his pricing, though his workload has increased this season, averaging 22.6 touches per game. Air Force’s rush defense has been leaky through three weeks, averaging over four yards a carry to some sub-par offenses. Some separation at wide receiver where Dalevon Campbell ($4,800), Brian Casteel ($5,500) and Jamaal Bell ($5,100) account for 82% of the target share among Nevada receivers. Zero preference between the three players from my standpoint.
Air Force:
Rushing numbers are up from a year ago for AF, averaging 6.91 YPC and 396 YPG through three weeks. That matches the advanced data where the Falcons are 18th in line yards and 18th in rush play success rate offensively, though we want to see it against a more formidable opponent than what they’ve faced the first three games. Won’t get any more clarity this week against Nevada, though. RBs Brad Roberts ($8,400) and John Lee Eldridge ($5,700) are both in play, and no reason you can’t roster both in a lineup together. JLE is now averaging 9.8 yards per carry on the year. I’ll likely fade Haaziq Daniels ($6,200) and the Air Force passing game as they’ll probably be able to win this game going away without having to throw a pass. WRs David Cormier ($4,800) and Cade Harris ($3,300) both caught touchdowns last week against Wyoming with Dane Kinamon out of the lineup.
Boise State vs. UTEP
Point-Spread: Boise -15.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: Boise 30 – UTEP 15.5
Weather: 88 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Boise State:
Top Play(s) – RB George Holani ($6,600) Don’t feel confident about rostering any Boise State players these days but cannot deny the volume here with Holani getting 20+ carries in each of the last two games. The Miners are only allowing 14.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s, but that’s not indicative of the run defense where the RB2s are averaging double-digit fantasy points. UTEP is 116th nationally in rush defense.
Fade – WR Stefan Cobbs ($6,500) Will undoubtedly be my biggest struggle of the slate as to how much ownership of Cobbs we should have. Not an outright fade here because of the limited WR options, but the price hasn’t matched the production on the early part of the schedule. Still leads the team in targets (17) but a 41% conversion rate does not exude confidence. Based on the numbers, it appears Bachmeier is struggling to hit anything downfield with consistency. Both Cobbs and Billy Bowens ($3,800) have aDOTs over 15 yards but are under 42% conversion rates on their targets.
Bargain Bin – WR Billy Bowens ($3,800) Cheapest Boise State player with the highest usage. We touched on it above why Bowens has just six receptions on 15 targets, but has played 59% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Pivot Play – WR Latrell Caples ($5,200) For all the reasons we discussed above regarding Cobbs and Bowens struggling to give us consistent production, that’s the argument for Caples here. The notable trend here is that Caples has converted his 14 targets into 10 receptions and two touchdowns with an aDOT of just 6.9. Bachmeier’s completion percentage between 0-9 yards is 80%.
Best of the Rest – QB Hank Bachmeier ($7,300) Risky proposition but I think Bachmeier is my second QB option on the slate behind Shrader. Numbers have improved the last two weeks, completing 70% of his passes with five touchdowns, despite being booed by his home crowd. UTEP is 77th in pass play success rate and have allowed multiple 30+ point QB performances already to Dillon Gabriel and Austin Aune. Hell, if Diego Pavia scored 22 fantasy points against this defense. Yikes. RB Ashton Jeanty ($4,900) will get run here in a likely blowout situation, seeing double-digit carries in each of the last two games.
Injury Notes – TE Riley Smith ($3,000) Smith missed last week due to injury but was targeted five times in each of the first two games. The OC made it a point of emphasis this offseason to scheme way to find his tight end more, and this will be a situation where we’ll want to find out if Smith is available or not.
UTEP:
Top Play(s) – WR Tyrin Smith ($5,400) Facing one of the better secondaries among G5 teams? Don’t care. Lock in Smith here as he leads the country in targets.
Fade – QB Gavin Hardison ($5,300) Don’t think I’d even bother here with Hardison who is completing just 45% of his passes this season with two touchdowns despite having one of the better WR corps in C-USA. Boise State is third in the country in pass play success rate defensively and has been lights out on the backend since the season opener.
Bargain Bin – RB Reynaldo Flores ($3,200) Flores is pretty much a lock here anytime he’s available to us on a slate, and DK continues to list him as a RB. Hasn’t scored double-digit fantasy points in two weeks, but volume is still there, averaging nine targets per game. Flores is more of a priority on DK vs. FD because of the PPR scoring format.
Pivot Play – n/a
Best of the Rest – WR Kelly Akharaiyi ($4,000) Third among wide receivers playing 63% of offensive snaps and is averaging six targets a game. Need him to pop a long touchdown to reach value as he’s converted on only 41.7% of his targets. Running game is a non-factor here with Ronald Awatt ($3,500) and Deion Hankins ($3,800) splitting carries. The Miners are averaging under three yards a carry on the season, and the backs don’t see the volume because (1) they’re splitting carries and (2) game script forcing UTEP to throw more than they’d like. Boise State is 37th in rush play success rate defensively.
Injury Notes – n/a
