Tulane vs. Houston
Point-Spread: Hou -2.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: Hou 29 – Tul 26.5
Weather: 83 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Tulane:
Top Play(s) – RB Tajae Spears ($5,300) Spears’ usage by the coaching staff is odd. Just nine carries in the biggest game of the season vs. Kansas State? Was this the game-plan in trying to limit his touches for the long-term or is Spears not 100%? Regardless, we are now in conference play and Spears looked 100% against Southern Miss with 114 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries. Houston is 105th in rush play success rate defensively and 116th in scoring defense. In the Cougars’ defense, they’ve played multiple OT games already, but the group is not playing up to standard.
Fade – All Tulane pass-catchers. No wide receiver has more than 16% target share and Tulane has three tight ends with between 3-6 targets. WR Deuce Watts has played the most snaps of any receiver yet is sixth on the team with only five receptions on eight targets. Messy situation that I don’t want any part of.
Bargain Bin – WR Dea Dea McDougle ($3,000) All that said, if forced to choose an option, I suppose it would be the min-priced McDougle who has been consistent all year long with 10 receptions on a team-leading 17 targets. We’re getting close to the point in the year, though, where it doesn’t make much sense to be rostering $3k players anymore.
Pivot Play – QB Michael Pratt ($6,500) We’re seeing an improved version of Michael Pratt in 2022, completing 64% of his passes with seven touchdowns, but is getting pressured / sacked at a similar rate to last year which led to him getting injured. Tulane isn’t calling many designed runs for Pratt as a result, but the rushing output has been there much of the season, now with over 170 yards on the ground in the last two weeks. One of Houston’s top pass rushers suffered a season-ending injury, and the Cougars could be without their nose guard who was suspended last week.
Best of the Rest – WR Shae Wyatt ($3,900) If taking a risk on a Tulane receiver, I’d lean towards Wyatt who is a proven commodity in this offense, finishing with 33 receptions and three touchdowns a year ago. Slow start to the year but did top 100+ yards with a touchdown in Week 2 against Alcorn State. Posted 1,600 receiving yards the last time he played under offensive coordinator Jim Svoboda, so the slow start to 2022 is a bit surprising.
Injury Notes – WR Lawrence Keys ($3,500) The Notre Dame transfer was held out last week due to an unspecified injury. 11 targets in three games played.
Houston:
Top Play(s) – Nathaniel Dell ($7,300) Just another ho-hum 7-134-1 performance despite being less than 100%. Our concerns about Dell’s declining value in 2022 due to more weapons at receiver was clearly over-analyzing on our part. Still leads the team with 24 receptions, three touchdowns and a 29% target share which isn’t far off from his 2021 numbers.
Fade – TE Christian Trahan ($3,800) For reasons unbeknownst to me, Trahan has not been a factor at all in the Houston passing game this season, not seeing a single target in each of the last two weeks despite playing a full set of offensive snaps. Improved WR depth the cause? Trahan’s only running a receiving route on 78% of passing plays, compared to 84% last year. Staying in to block more?
Bargain Bin – WR Joseph Manjack ($3,800) Not someone I’m looking to play here, but nine of his 15 targets have come in the last two games. I guess the shoving incident with a teammate on the sidelines hasn’t affected his standing with the staff, but maybe enhanced it?
Pivot Play – QB Clayton Tune ($6,200) Tulane is No. 1 in yards allowed per game through the air in the country, allowing just 102 yards per game. That stat we just told you is completely irrelevant considering they’ve played Southern Miss, Kansas State and UMass. The Green Wave are 43rd in pass defense success rate and are allowing 18 FPPG to opposing QBs. Still good numbers but this isn’t a lock down secondary that we should be threatened off playing Tune this week. Tune’s numbers might actually be better if Houston wasn’t hurting themselves each game – No. 1 in the country in penalty yardage.
Best of the Rest – RB Ta’Zhawn Henry ($5,900) Will have to check in pregame on the status of Brandon Campbell who sat out last week with an ankle injury. Changes the entire dynamic of the Houston backfield whether he’s available or not. In his place, Henry rushed for 112 yards and a touchdown on 17 attempts vs. Rice last week. Houston’s offensive line has performed well so far, but this is a tough matchup against a Tulane defense that is 7th in rush play success rate. And that’s after facing Deuce Vaughn and Frank Gore Jr. Still believe that a WR Matthew Golden ($5,100) blowup game will happen at some point – maybe now that he’s priced up to over $5k. Noticeable that his aDOT has dropped from 16.4 in the opener to now around 8.0 yards over the last three games, and his production has increased *slightly* as a result.
Injury Notes – RB Brandon Campbell ($6,200) is listed as OUT on DraftKings, but don’t believe that is his official designation this week. We’ll have to check on him, because he directly impacts Henry.
UTSA vs. Middle Tennessee
Point-Spread: UTSA -4.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: UTSA 33.5 – MTSU 29
Weather: 65 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
UTSA:
Top Play(s) – QB Frank Harris ($6,800) I’d say probably a lock here? The Roadrunners are 101st in rush offense in 2022 and struggled to run it consistently against an FCS opponent. That results in a career day for Harris who set a school record with 392 passing yards and five touchdowns…and that was after getting banged up in the first quarter. Middle Tennessee can be had on the backend, despite their impressive performance a week ago vs. Miami. The Blue Raiders are 54th in pass play success rate and gave up the 60-point outing to Todd Centeio in Week 1.
Fade – RB Brenden Brady ($5,900) Such a mid play for a guy that might pop in some DFS optimizers this week. I’ll go against the grain and pass, particularly if Trelon Smith is back in action. UTSA can’t run the football with any consistency, now facing a team in MTSU that is allowing just 10.1 FPPG to opposing running backs and 5th in rush play success rate nationally. UTSA is projected to score around five touchdowns Friday so I suppose Brady can fall into the end-zone twice and reach value, but this is a bad matchup on paper.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – n/a
Best of the Rest – WRs. Any of the three. Doesn’t matter. Hell, this is a triple stack or even quadruple stack opportunity if you could make it work. 20 of more fantasy points every week for Zakhari Franklin ($7,500). WR3 De’Corian Clark ($6,500) had a career day last week with 9-217-3 which tied/broke multiple school records. Joshua Cephus ($7,000) feels like the forgotten man, but he’s scored at least 15 fantasy points in all four games this season. The trio has combined for a whopping 82% of the team’s target share with the next closest player having just 10 targets.
Injury Notes – RB Trelon Smith ($4,600) Smith was not dressed last week for the matchup with Texas Southern, but no longer had a boot on his foot. Good news for his availability this week? Stay tuned on this one, because like Houston above, it directly impacts Brady’s viability as an option. UTSA isn’t good enough running the football to where Brady remains an option if Smith is good to go.
Middle Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – QB Chase Cunningham ($6,600) UTSA has been far more susceptible against the run vs. the pass this year (more on that later), but game script here likely favors Cunningham, coming off a 400-yard performance against Miami last week. And while the Roadrunners have been worse defending the run, it hasn’t been great in the secondary either. 61st in pass play success rate, but 123rd in pass play explosiveness allowed on the backend. Not great with Cunningham now averaging 12.5 yards per pass attempt in the last two games.
Fade – WR Yusuf Ali ($4,000) Very noticable that Ali’s production has fallen flat since the return of Jaylin Lane to the lineup. After posting eight receptions on 12 targets in the opener, Ali has caught just nine passes on 12 targets in the last three weeks combined. Snap counts have declined considerably.
Bargain Bin – WR Isaiah Gathings ($3,300) I’ll be targeting a few other MTSU receivers, but cannot deny a $3.3k player that leads his team in targets. Gathings is a move tight end that operates primarily in the slot, and has converted 24 of his 25 targets into a reception. Everything is around the line of scrimmage, though, with an aDOT of 4.0.
Pivot Play – RB Frank Peasant ($5,100) 53% volume share in the MTSU for Peasant who has been a surprise to start the year with six rushing touchdowns in the last two games. Was tougher sledding against Miami (expected) but still managed to churn out 74 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries. Far better matchup this week against a UTSA defense that just allowed 235 rushing yards to Texas Southern. The Roadrunners are also allowing 22.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Jaylin Lane ($5,300) Surprised to see Lane as the highest-priced receiver but he is MTSU’s best option at the position. 14 targets in the last three games and topped 100 yards receiving last week against Miami. Should see low ownership while other players look for salary saving options like Gathings or possibly DJ England-Chisolm ($3,800) who had two touchdowns last week against Miami. Was that a flash in the pan or sign of things to come? DJEC is tied for fourth on the team with just eight targets in three games.
Injury Notes – n/a
San Diego State vs. Boise State
Point-Spread: BSU -6.5
O/U Total: 38.5
Implied Score: BSU 22.5 – SDSU 16
Weather: 71 degrees / 0% rain / 18 mph winds
San Diego State:
Brady Hoke driving yet another team into the ground? I’m shocked. The Aztecs have been atrocious offensively so we’re only going to limit this writeup to two options in RB Jordan Byrd ($3,000) and WR1 Jesse Matthews ($4,500). Remember when it was routine to see a San Diego State running back average 100 rushing yards per game? The Aztecs have rotated between four different options in September, finally settling on the veteran in Byrd who rushed for 116 yards and a pair of scores vs. Toledo. Boise State is far superior at defending the run than the Rockets, allowing just 3.1 YPC and 7.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Matthews is a tremendous receiver…but Braxton Burmeister might be the worst quarterback in FBS. San Diego State averages fewer pass yards per game than ALL THREE of the service academies!
***On the injury front, the San Diego Union-Tribune is reporting that Chance Bell will return to action this week, which puts a damper on the Byrd possibility. Hoke said the team will continue to ride the hot hand.
Boise State:
Top Play(s) – QB Taylen Green ($5,300) With Hank Bachmeier in the transfer portal, Green will get the nod on Friday, giving the opposing defense a different look as a 6-foot-5 dual-threat. That was on display when Green filled in for Bachmeier in the opener against Oregon State, completing 68% of his throws while also rushing for 102 yards on 11 attempts. Brady Hoke said he reached out to his brother who worked with new OC Dirk Koetter down in Tampa Bay, and did say the more QB runs should be expected. Of Green’s 11 attempts, six were designed runs.
Fade – WR Billy Bowens ($4,700) Hit or miss receiver that’s mostly been a miss, converting on just 40% of his 20 targets. Does have one of the higher aDOT’s on the team at 14.8, but what does that matter if the targets aren’t turning into receptions. Bowens is the fourth option for Boise State in the passing game, and if I were considering another Boise State WR outside of Cobbs, it would be Latrell Caples ($6,400).
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WR Stefan Cobbs ($6,700) Do the recent changes at QB and OC open up the possibility of Cobbs becoming the Top 15 fantasy receiver we expected preseason? Strong lean towards no, but it can’t get any worse right? And things are looking up at least with 16 targets in the last two games alone, finding the end-zone in both. San Diego State is allowing 26.4 FPPG to opposing WR1s through four weeks, eighth highest number in the country, so this secondary can be leaky.
Best of the Rest – RB George Holani ($6,700) There are some more attractive RB options at cheaper prices on the slate, but cannot deny the volume with Holani averaging just under 20 attempts per game. Even better when talented backup Ashton Jeanty is barely being utilized as a runner. For as bad as San Diego State has been offensively, the Aztec defense remains its calling card. 31s in rush play success rate, allowing only 12.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Injury Notes – n/a
Washington vs. UCLA
Point-Spread: UW -2.5
O/U Total: 66.5
Implied Score: UW 34.5 – UCLA 32
Weather: 70 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Washington:
Top Play(s) – QB Michael Penix ($8,500) Not outrageous to say that Michael Penix Jr. has been the biggest surprise in college football so far through the young season. The former Indiana transfer was in a quarterback battle all through the offseason, but has just shredded opposing defenses, completing 65% of his throws with 12 touchdowns and just one interception. It probably shouldn’t be as big a surprise considering his prior history with DeBoer dating back to their days at Indiana, four 300+ passing performances in four games was unexpected. If there is a matchup to exploit on Friday, it would be Washington’s receivers against a suspect UCLA secondary that allowed 258 yards and a touchdown to a Colorado freshman quarterback making his first career start. The Buffs have the worst passing offense, by a wide margin, in the Pac-12. Now in comes the best passing offense.
Fade – WR Giles Jackson ($3,500) Jackson’s best performances have all come in garbage time with 105 yards in the 52-6 blowout over Portland State and 4-39-1 last week in the double-digit victory over Stanford. Don’t have the PxP in front of me, but would assume much of Jackson’s production came late in the second half with game already in hand. Don’t see that happening in a game that Vegas projects at less than a field goal margin.
Bargain Bin – RB Ja’Lynn Polk ($4,100) Polk was a non-factor vs. Stanford, but not a cause for concern as he’s just one of three high-end receiver options for Washington that can pop off at any given moment. Just two targets, but still played majority of snaps. Just gave way to Giles Jackson when the game was out of hand. Still the team leader in touchdown receptions (4), averaging 5.25 targets per game.
Pivot Play – RB Wayne Taulapapa ($6,400) The Bruins are allowing just 12.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, but failed against their only legitimate opponent, giving up 27 fantasy points to La’Damian Webb. Pretty average analytically through four weeks, ranking 48th in rush play success rate. Will have to stay tuned here if backup Cam Davis plays or not Friday as he was splitting reps evenly with Taulapapa until Week 3. Coincidentally with Davis out, the Virginia transfer had his best performance with 120 yards and a TD.
Best of the Rest – WR Rome Odunze ($5,400) and WR Jalen McMillan ($7,100) Would love to know if anyone has a legitimate argument to choose one Washington receiver over the other in a given week. McMillan leads the team in targets (31) but Odunze isn’t far behind (26) despite playing one less game. Odunze was the hot hand on Saturday with 8-161-1 on nine targets vs. the Cardinal. In GPPs, I’m comfortable rostering both in a team stack with Penix as they’ve hit double-digit fantasy points together in all but one game this year.
Injury Notes – RB Cameron Davis ($4,900) HC Kalen DeBoer said after the Stanford game that Davis was available but wound up going with the healthiest running backs. This ambiguity will have me fading Davis again until we see him back on the field.
UCLA:
Top Play(s) – RB Zach Charbonnet ($6,500) Nothing special here, just simply too affordable to not have in our lineups. Not overly threatened by a Washington defense that is allowing under three yards a carry on the year. UCLA has the offensive line to combat that, ranking eighth in line yards and 10th in stuff rate.
Fade – WR Kazmeir Allen ($6,000) Snap counts and targets have fallen dramatically since the start of the season as it appears Jake Bobo is sharing more reps in the slot with Allen. That shift has paid off for Bobo’s production, but Allen now has just eight targets in the last two games with 37 total receiving yards. With an aDOT at 1.4, he needs to be a volume-eater to rack up the PPR points, and that just isn’t happening anymore.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WR Jake Bobo ($7,300) Beat writers are predicting a bigger role for the Duke transfer against a Washington secondary with his 6-foot-5 frame against a pair of starting cornerbacks that are both sub 6-foot-1. The shift to seeing more slot reps has worked for Bobo in the last two weeks with nine receptions on 10 targets. Yards per route run has also increased from 1.41 in the first two games to 2.87 in the last two.
Best of the Rest – QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson ($8,100) DTR probably doesn’t see a ton of ownership at his pricing, but this should be a good matchup for him this week. Completing over 70% of his passes with eight touchdowns and is not turning the ball over. Average secondary play for Washington, allowing 17.3 FPPG to opposing QB1s and are 117th in passing explosiveness allowed. DTR and Charbonnet account for 58% of the team’s offensive production and 14 of the 21 touchdowns.
Injury Notes – n/a
New Mexico vs. UNLV
Point-Spread: UNLV -14.5
O/U Total: 43.5
Implied Score: UNLV 29 – NM 14.5
Weather: Dome
New Mexico:
Only option at pricing is RB Nathaniel Jones ($3,700) who has accounted for 37% of the team’s rushing attempts since returning in Week 2. UNLV is 28th in rush play success rate nationally, giving up just 14.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
UNLV:
Top Play(s) – RB Aidan Robbins ($6,800) For as bad as New Mexico is offensively, they’re an improved group on defense, ranking fourth in the Mountain West and 57th overall in yards allowed per game. The run defense doesn’t grade out nearly as well, ranking 90th in success rate and 97th in explosiveness allowed. Bad news when facing the conference’s second leading rusher in Robbins who accounts for 72% of the backfield volume share.
Fade – RB Courtney Reese ($4,700) See above, even in a possible blowout scenario. We stated in the offseason how HC Marcus Arroyo always gives his RB1 over 50% market share over the course of a regular season. He’ll lean on Robbins here, and New Mexico’s defense is “good enough” to where I wouldn’t even consider Reese.
Bargain Bin – WR Nick Williams ($3,000) With Jeff Weimer sidelined, looks like Williams will get the starting nod after playing 50 offensive snaps last week against Utah State. Really don’t know anything about the 6-foot-4 senior other than what’s on his bio. Posted 48-594-3 at a Division II school last season. That’s the hard-hitting analysis you’re looking for with these articles, right?
Pivot Play – WR Ricky White ($6,300) White was shut out of the box score against Utah State last week but remains the team leader with 26 targets. Should see a significant bump if Kyle Williams is out in addition to Weimer. That trio combined for 60% of the team’s target share with no other pass-catcher in double digits.
Best of the Rest – QB Doug Brumfield ($7,100) Not sure I see a ton of upside here this week with Brumfield against a decent New Mexico pass defense that has forced more interceptions than touchdown passes and is 47th in pass success rate. Not having two starters at receiver potentially will also hurt. That said, the Lobos are allowing 23.6 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season. Those QBs are Austin Aune, Jack Plummer and Logan Bonner. Brumfield has been better than all three in 2022.
Injury Notes – WR Jeff Weimer has already been declared out this week. Fellow starting WR Kyle Williams ($6,200) is considered day-to-day, so we’ll need to monitor over the coming days.
