Kentucky vs. Mississippi
Point-Spread: Ole Miss -6.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: Ole Miss 30.5 – UK 24
Weather: 72 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – WR Tayvion Robinson ($5,800) I don’t view any Kentucky player as being a must-play this week, and I’m tentative because the last time we promoted Robinson as the option was when he had all of one reception against Florida in Week 2. Since then, the Virginia Tech transfer has seen his utilization increase with 13 receptions on 13 targets in the last two weeks. It’s clear Robinson won’t be a 40% usage guy like Wan’Dale Robinson was a year ago but is still the best option UK has at receiver.
Fade – RB Kavosiey Smoke ($5,300) This would be a difficult matchup even if it was Smoke starting against the Rebels who are allowing just 3.18 YPC and 11th in defensive rush play success rate. Now add in Chris Rodriguez ($6,000) back into the mix after his four-game suspension and Smoke is immediately removed from our player queue.
Bargain Bin – WR Barion Brown ($4,300) With every passing week, Brown’s snap counts continue to increase along with his targets. Best performance of his young career last week against NIU with four receptions on five targets and a pair of touchdowns.
Pivot Play – QB Will Levis ($6,900) The Ole Miss secondary has played well to this point, ranking 23rd in pass play success rate and allowing just 15.0 FPPG to opposing QBs. The opposing QBs they’ve faced – Gunnar Watson, Davis Brin (got injured) and Jeff Sims. Game script sets up here for Levis being forced to throw the football, and while the production hasn’t been there, the Kentucky QB is still getting between 7-9 rushing attempts per game.
Best of the Rest – WR Dane Key ($5,700) Tied for second with Brown with 18 targets, while leading the team in touchdowns (3), aDOT (16.5) and second in yards per route run (2.74). As we mentioned with Robinson, looking like a situation where any one of the three wide receiver can pop off in a given week.
Injury Notes – n/a
Ole Miss:
Top Play(s) – RB Quinshon Judkins ($5,000) Posted in the Discord earlier this week that an “educated guess” by the Ole Miss beat writer suggested we will not see Zach Evans or Ulysses Bentley this week, meaning the 4-star freshman is about to get a heavy dose of work Saturday. The Rebels are fourth in the country in rushing, averaging 48.5 attempts per game which puts them in the top 10 nationally. Assumption as of Tuesday writing this is that Judkins and Jaxson Dart will do the heavy lifting on the ground Saturday. Kentucky is allowing just 10.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, but have faced three teams in Florida, NIU and Miami (OH) that all rotate their backs.
Fade – WR Jaylon Robinson ($7,500) Kiffin stated last week that Robinson would be a go against Tulsa and wound up seeing zero snaps. Last time Robinson was healthy, he combined for just three targets while splitting reps with fellow slot receiver Jordan Watkins ($3,300). I’d invest elsewhere if wanting a piece of the Ole Miss passing game.
Bargain Bin – TE Michael Trigg ($3,400) Trigg has clearly not lived up to the preseason hype coming in with just 13 receptions in four games. But this is a player with the upside to help win a GPP even at this pricing. Trigg is still third on the team in targets (17) and on the field for 66% of offensive snaps.
Pivot Play – QB Jaxson Dart ($7,700) Unlikely to see high ownership in a large GPP at this price and it makes sense given Ole Miss is just 11th in the SEC in passing, facing a Kentucky defense that is 11th nationally in pass play success rate. UK is also eighth in FBS, allowing only 11.0 FPPG to opposing quarterback this season. We’ll see what transpires over the week with the injuries to both Evans and Bentley, but the name that comes to mind first for who will replicate some of the missing rushing production – Dart.
Best of the Rest – WR Malik Heath ($4,000) The former Mississippi State transfer leads the team in receptions (13) and targets (19), finding the end-zone in three of four games to start the year. WR Jonathan Mingo ($5,800) is second in both categories but leads the team at 3.13. yards per route run (3.13) and the highest aDOT for the Rebels at 20.7.
Injury Notes – See above on Zach Evans, Ulysses Bentley and Jaylon Robinson.
Texas Tech vs. Kansas State
Point-Spread: KSU -7.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: KSU 32.5 – Tx Tech 25
Weather: 70 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – WR Myles Price ($5,400) This was the Myles Price we expected preseason. Opposing defenses are clearly going to game plan around keeping everything in front of them, forcing sustained drives to where maybe Donovan Smith makes a game-changing mistake. That didn’t happen against Texas, and Price was the beneficiary with 12 receptions on 16 targets.
Fade – WR Jerand Bradley ($5,000) Just have to raise a player’s pricing by $1k after putting up four receptions in the last two weeks, ya just have to. Let down two games in a row by Bradley, and now his percentage of offensive snaps took a slight hit last week against the Longhorns. Coaches looking at different options? I’ll give one argument for Bradley, even though we’re fading him. Kansas State’s secondary is 107th in pass play explosiveness, and Bradley is the big-play threat on the team with an aDOT over 14.0 for the season.
Bargain Bin – WR Nehemiah Martinez ($3,000) AND J.J. Sparkman ($3,000) Everything is around the line of scrimmage for Martinez, who averaged just 0.68 yards per route run against Texas. But how many min priced players on a slate can you say have 13 receptions on 18 targets in the last three games. Hint – not many. Sparkman saw a HUGE jump against the Longhorns, playing 77 of 102 offensive snaps, far and away his season high, converting on all four of his targets. Minimal output but curious to see if this continues as the coaching staff attempts to get him on the field more.
Pivot Play – QB Donovan Smith ($7,200) Strongest performance of the season last week for Smith, throwing for 331 yards with three total touchdowns in the overtime win over the Longhorns. His 26-point projection at $7,200 means he’s in play for us, but I have some reservations. In his first road test of the year against NC State, Smith faltered with three turnovers and is now facing a Kansas State defense that leads the conferences in interceptions. The Wildcats can be beaten over the top, ranking 107th in explosiveness, but are 16th in pass play success rate defensively and the No. 2 pass defense in the conference.
Best of the Rest – Split backfield between SaRodorick Thompson ($4,900) and Tahj Brooks ($5,500) where the snaps counts are practically 50-50, but the former has been far more effective the last two weeks with over 100 rushing yards combined against NC State and Texas. Brooks has struggled to find any running room in that stretch, averaging just two yards a carry. Do we see the staff continuing to get Thompson more involved? Low-upside play with both in an offense that throws the ball 60% of the time.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas State:
Same story each week – QB Adrian Martinez ($7,800), RB Deuce Vaughn ($7,200) or bust. That duo accounts for 64% of the team’s offensive yardage gained and 11 of KSU’s 14 total touchdowns. I’m thinking this might be the Deuce Vaughn breakout week. Tech is vastly improved on the defensive side of the ball, but has been gashed by opposing RB1s so far, allowing 25.3 FPPG which is the sixth worst mark in the country. Against NC State two weeks ago, Demie Sumo really hurt the Red Raiders in the passing game with 4-93-1 coming out of the backfield, and we know Vaughn is plenty capable of that. Tech is 21st in pass play success rate and allowing just 17.3 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks, so not sure we see Martinez do as well through the air this week. Will give a quick nod to WR Malik Knowles as a long-shot option at $4,200. 50+ receiving yards in each of the last two weeks on a combined 13 targets. Tech has allowed 22 passing plays of 15 yards or more this season.
Oklahoma vs. TCU
Point-Spread: OU -6.5
O/U Total: 68.5
Implied Score: OU 37.5 – TCU 31
Weather: 76 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – QB Dillon Gabriel ($9,300) Hefty price to pay, but Gabriel continues to rack up fantasy points, scoring 38.3 last week in a comeback attempt vs. Kansas State. There are some growns by OU fans about Gabriel’s performance, missing throws he should make, but he’s been plenty productive from a fantasy standpoint. At 26.9 projected points this week, he’s not someone we jam in our lineups, but I like the matchup. Vegas has OU at 37 points this week, and have seen projections elsewhere that have the Sooners scoring closer to 50. TCU is 60th in pass play success rate and 122nd in pass play explosiveness.
Fade – RB Marcus Major ($6,500) It looked for a brief second that we might be seeing a change at running back where Major rushed for four touchdowns in three games, averaging over six yards a carry. Snap counts were nearly 50-50 for the first three weeks too. Against a legitimate opponent last week in Kansas State, I think we saw who the staff trusts most in the backfield where RB Eric Gray ($7,600) played double the offensive snaps that Major did and had an exceptional performance with 114 yards on 16 carries to go along with seven receptions. Major could fall into the end-zone once or twice but doesn’t appear as if he will get the volume a $6.5k player should.
Bargain Bin – TE Brayden Willis ($4,000) Team leader with four receiving touchdowns after notching two last week on six targets. Played the second-most offensive snaps of any OU pass-catcher, running a route on 86% of pass plays.
Pivot Play – WR Jalil Farooq ($5,000) Finally have seen a mini breakout from Farooq the last two weeks with nine receptions on 12 targets. Clearly the staff has trust in sophomore receiver too as he’s played the most offensive snaps of any skill player not named Dillon Gabriel.
Best of the Rest – WR Marvin Mims ($8,500) We’ve written enough over the years about Mims that I think everyone knows what to expect at this point. Could break the slate, could bust. He’s been far more stable with his production this year than in season’s past, and he’s a half yard against Nebraska from having three touchdowns in three games so. TCU is 122nd in pass play explosiveness, and we know downfield is where Mims thrives.
Injury Notes – n/a
TCU:
Top Play(s) – RB Kendre Miller ($5,200) Breakout performance for Miller against SMU with 142 yards and a touchdown on 17 attempts. Oklahoma’s rush defense is dead last in the Big 12, though surprisingly are only giving up 10.4 FPPG to opposing running backs this season. Deuce Vaughn failed to score 15 points last week. Still think Miller is the safest option for TCU this week, garnering 55% of the backfield volume share. No other running back is legitimately threatening Miller for carries.
Fade – WR Taye Barber ($4,700) Same story each week with Barber. Zero interest. Converted on all four of his targets last week, but for minimal yardage again with a 0.3 aDOT. Just one performance in his last 14 games scoring 20 fantasy points or more. Practically zero upside. I’d much rather (but not necessary at all) spend up to slot receiver Derius Davis ($5,600) despite playing just half the snaps that Barber does. Has converted on all seven of his targets, averages 4.67 yards per routes run and has found the end-zone the last two weeks.
Bargain Bin – TE Jared Wiley ($3,400) TCU rotates in so many receivers and tight ends, that it almost makes sense to play Max Duggan naked. The Texas transfer tight end is a longshot, but his snap counts have increased with every passing week and has now found the end-zone in each of the last two games. Sonny Dykes has found success with move tight ends like Wiley in the past with Kylen Granson and Stephen Anderson, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see Wiley continue to put up some numbers.
Pivot Play – WR Quentin Johnston ($6,200) Have to think the breakout performance is happening at some point, right? Maybe this week in another high-scoring affair against Oklahoma where Johnston had a monster performance a year ago with 7-185-3. I don’t have the statistic, but listening to Johnston speak to the media, he is seeing double teams from opposing defenses which could be leading to the lackluster stat-lines. But that doesn’t excuse Johnston from three drops either. So it’s a mixed bag as to why his stats aren’t where we thought they’d be at this point. Average depth of target has sunk from 18.1 in 2021 to just 9.8 this year.
Best of the Rest – QB Max Duggan ($6,700) It wasn’t just Johnston who had a career day vs. Oklahoma last year…Duggan threw for 346 yards and four touchdowns against the Sooners. Chandler Morris will be available this week, but doubt we see him if Duggan continues to play the way he has. 77% completion rate, zero interceptions and has the highest passing efficiency rate (216.03) of any FBS quarterback so far. Oklahoma’s defense is stingier on the backend, ranking 12th in pass play explosiveness allowed and 14th in pass play success rate.
Injury Notes – WR Quincy Brown remains out due to injury. WR Savion Williams ($3,900) stepped in last week, played 52 of 66 offensive snaps, and found the end-zone on three targets.
Michigan vs. Iowa
Point-Spread: UM -10.5
O/U Total: 42.5
Implied Score: UM 26.5 – Iowa 16
Weather: 63 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Blake Corum ($6,500) Corum continues to shine without the presence of Donovan Edwards in the backfield, carrying the ball 42 times in the last two weeks with seven rushing touchdowns. With the passing game not in sync, the Wolverines leaned heavily on their junior running back, and he delivered the final blow with a 47-yard touchdown late in the fourth quarter to seal the victory. All signs point to Corum having help on Saturday with Edwards back in the lineup after nursing an ankle injury the last two weeks.
Fade – QB J.J. McCarthy ($6,600) After a blazing start to the season, quarterback J.J. McCarthy finally looked like a sophomore making just his third career start against Maryland. And now McCarthy goes on the road to take on an Iowa defense allowing just 163 YPG and 12.2 FPPG to opposing QBs. Still think Michigan wins relatively comfortably and McCarthy play well, but not a ton of upside here for such a low total.
Bargain Bin – TE Luke Schoonmaker ($3,200) Michigan must’ve seen something on tape when studying Maryland because the tight end position was targeted 10 times on Saturday despite being down starter Erick All. Schoonmaker stepped right into the starting lineup, finishing with 7-72-1 on a team-high eight targets. He’ll be the starter again this weekend with All potentially having season-ending surgery at some point. Not guaranteeing this type of output weekly from Schoonmaker, but he’s an option.
Pivot Play – WR Ronnie Bell ($6,000) Since being limited to just nine yards in the opener, Ronnie Bell has topped 70 yards receiving in each of the last three games. We know Michigan is a run first team, but they’ll need to throw to win against an Iowa team that is limiting opponents to just 73 yards on the ground. Bell has been the surest thing in the Michigan passing game.
Best of the Rest – Roman Wilson ($4,400) Doesn’t see the targets that Ronnie Bell does, and was splitting offensive snaps with Andrel Anthony last week, but cannot deny the production. A receiving touchdown in three of four games to start the year.
Injury Notes – Donovan Edwards ($4,000) No official update from Jim Harbaugh on Monday, saying “it’s possible” that Edwards plays this weekend, but that Blake Corum is capable of getting the same workload he had against Maryland too. On the Michigan postgame radio on Saturday, J.J. McCarthy hinted at Edwards being back this week, so I’d lean towards him being probable.
Iowa:
Unless we can roster special teams’ units or punters, this is a hard pass. Worst offense in the country.
Purdue vs. Minnesota
Point-Spread: Minn -12.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: Minn 32 – Purd 19.5
Weather: 67 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Purdue:
Top Play(s) – WR Charlie Jones ($6,400) There are reasons for both sides of the coin when it comes to Jones this week. Reasonable price for a bonafide WR1 that has found the end-zone in every game this season with at least 10 targets in each game. His numbers were down last week, understandably, without Aidan O’Connell in the lineup. Jones’ average depth of target dropped from 13.7 to just 8.0, and Minnesota does come in with the No. 2 pass defense in the country. Targets will be there regardless of the quarterback. Will the production?
Fade – QB Austin Burton ($5,500) Do not get googly-eyed by the three-touchdown performance from Burton last week against Florida Atlantic – the 78th ranked scoring defense in the country. I can say with the utmost confidence that Burton would struggle on the road against the Gophers’ second-ranked secondary that is allowing just 6.0 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Bargain Bin – RB Devin Mockobee ($3,000) If King Doerue is back, I don’t think Mockobee is even in consideration. But he was a valuable play a few weeks back in the matchup with Syracuse, scoring 10.9 fantasy points as a min-priced lineup filler. Mockobee took a back seat to Dylan Downing as a runner, but the sophomore back did have four receptions for 59 yards on four targets. Top two running backs in Jeff Brohm’s system combine for around five targets a game in the last eight seasons.
Pivot Play – TE Payne Durham ($4,200) Durham is averaging 6.25 targets per game and has played the most offensive snaps of any skill position player for the Boilermakers. The Gophers are allowing just 3.7 FPPG so far to opposing tight ends.
Best of the Rest – WR T.J. Sheffield ($3,200) Snap counts have increased the last two weeks, and more production has been the result with seven receptions on 10 targets and a touchdown. WR Tyrone Tracy ($4,000) needs to be a volume eater to be productive with an of…wait for it…-0.2. Yes, a negative average depth of target. And he’s simply not that, averaging just four targets a game.
Injury Notes – QB Aidan O’Connell ($5,700) Big storyline of the weekend if AOC is available or not. Haven’t seen much in terms of Vegas line movement swaying towards the Gophers here. Sounds like it’s a rib issue for O’Connell and we won’t hear until Friday at the very earliest.
Minnesota:
Top Play(s) – RB Mo Ibrahim ($9,500) Hello, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to your favorite weekly game show titled “Is it worth it to roster Mo Ibrahim at his price?” We know what Ibrahim’s volume will look like, with between 21-23 rushing attempts in every game played so far. We know with a good amount of certainty that Ibrahim will top 100 yards on the ground. But we need two touchdowns essentially for his pricing to be worth it. So far on the season, the Boilermakers are allowing just 8.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s and are 6th in rush play success rate. Safe to say this will be the best rush defense Ibrahim has played to this point.
Fade – WR Michael Brown-Stephens ($5,600) With Autman-Bell out for the season, it was Brown-Stephens to deliver his first audition in becoming the new WR1 for the Gophers, finishing last week with six receptions for 73 yards on six targets. MBS also led all wide receivers in offensive snaps played. That said, I’m not ready to declare any of the three Minnesota starting receivers as a “target hog” for the remainder of the season and DK is pricing Brown-Stephens like the guy here. I’ll fade and see if we get consistency for a second-straight game.
Bargain Bin – WR Daniel Jackson ($4,700) This is a bargain considering Jackson found the end-zone twice last week against Michigan State. I’d lean towards both salary-saving Minnesota receivers in Jackson or WR Dylan Wright ($4,000) over Brown-Stephens if being forced to choose. All three wideouts played 55% or more of the offensive snaps so there was limited rotations.
Pivot Play – QB Tanner Morgan ($6,300) Damn you Kirk Ciarrocca for making Tanner Morgan look competent and making me work harder than I normally would with my Minnesota writeups. Still a rule of thumb for me that I’d never roster Tanner Morgan in a Saturday main slate, but you can at least throw the argument out there with the senior QB averaging 21 FPPG. And this is without his best receiver in Chris Autman-Bell. The Purdue secondary is better than the numbers show, but are allowing 38.4 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Best of the Rest – RB Trey Potts ($4,000) Very interesting that Potts’ price sunk all the way to just $4k which puts him in the conversation for me as a final piece to your roster in the flex. We need Potts to find the end-zone once to make value, and he’s seen double-digit carries in every game so far.
Injury Notes – n/a
Illinois vs. Wisconsin
Point-Spread: Wisc -7
O/U Total: 43.5
Implied Score: Wisc 25.5 – Illini 17
Weather: 57 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Illinois:
Same story each week here so no point in a deep dive. RB Chase Brown ($7,500) is always in play if he’s getting 19 or more carries each week and topping 100 yards in all four games. RB1s are averaging 16.7 FPPG against the Badgers this season and Wisconsin is just 45th in rush play success rate. This is not the dominant group that we’ve seen in year’s past. Illinois is going to have to throw the ball a little bit to win this game so WR Isaiah Williams ($6,600) and is 30% target share is in play. In the limited viewing of Illinois this year, I’ve been impressive with WR2 Pat Bryant ($4,600), coming off his biggest game of the year with 112 yards and a touchdown on seven targets against Chattanooga. He’s playing just as many offensive snaps this year as Williams. Probably not the price or matchup we’re looking to roster Bryant, but name to keep in mind down the road.
Wisconsin:
Braelon or bust. This will be my analysis for Wisconsin moving forward – no further questions at this time.
Navy vs. Air Force
Point-Spread: AF -13.5
O/U Total: 37.5
Implied Score: AF 25.5 – Navy 12
Weather: 59 degrees / 14% rain / 6 mph winds
Navy:
Take the time to pay respects to the Men and Women of our Armed Forces, and then turn the channel. Ken Niumatalolo’s offense is Iowa-level bad. No idea why this game is even included on the slate.
Air Force:
Rarely do these Commander-in-Chief matchups every shootout as both teams try and ground-and-pound their way to victory. And I don’t see Air Force trying to do anything fancy here against one of the worst offenses in the country. QB Haaziq Daniels ($5,300) has just 200 total yards of offense and two touchdowns in the last two meetings with the Midshipmen. Meanwhile, the starting fullback in those two matchups has combined for 48 carries, 215 rushing yards and two touchdowns. FB Brad Roberts ($7,000) and RB John Lee Eldridge ($4,700) are the only viable options here. JLE is third in the country with a 10.24 yards per carry average, having topped 80 yards rushing in each of the four games played this season.
Alabama vs. Arkansas
Point-Spread: Bama -17.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: Bama 39 – Ark 22.5
Weather: 77 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – WR JaCorey Brooks ($5,000) Funny how the passing game looks the best it has all season against Vanderbilt with Brooks seeing extended offensive snaps, finishing with 100+ yards and two scores on seven targets. Brooks certainly isn’t Jameson Williams and may not even be at a John Metchie level player, but it was very evident that Alabama needs a stabilizer at receiver that Bryce Young has trust in. As we saw late last season, that’s Brooks.
Fade – WR Jermaine Burton ($6,800) I’m fading Burton…with a caveat. Think the Georgia transfer is too pricy here at $6.8k, combined with the emergence of Brooks last week. I do also think that Burton is looking like he’s finding his place within the offense as we get deeper into the season, converting on all four of his targets for 94 yards. Just six targets the last two games, so very limited sample size, but his aDOT (22.6) and 2.31 yards per route run average are all significantly up in the last two weeks vs. what we saw in the first two games. I think there’s a chance all is not lost with Burton and Bama.
Bargain Bin – TE Cameron Latu ($3,700) In a similar vein to Brooks, just a constant presence in the lineup that Bryce Young trusts. Three receptions in each of the three games played this season, averaging five target a contest.
Pivot Play – RB Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,000) Is he Najee Harris or Brian Robinson Jr? No. But the Georgia Tech transfer is proving to be a tremendous addition and has been plenty productive, averaging 17.7 FPPG. Probably to expensive to roster here, but I’ll make an argument. 1/3 of Gibbs’ 42 touches this season have gone for 10 or more yards. He’s not getting many carries, but Gibbs has caught a touchdown pass in each of the last three games. And if he does get more rushing attempts, he’s facing an Arkansas rush defense that is 86th in success rate and 90th in explosiveness, allowing 19.7 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Best of the Rest – QB Bryce Young ($9,900) Tough to fit Young in at his pricing but has the highest projection of any QB on the slate by a fairly wide margin if you look at the CFF Site projection table. I also think, if you’re spending down at a position this week, it can be running back, so I don’t mind going up to Young here. WR Traeshon Holden ($5,900) is a solid but unspectacular play. Has found the end-zone in three of four games but averaging just five targets a game. RB Jase McClellan ($4,900) is interesting. He’s been the team’s most consistent runner at running back, scoring double-digit fantasy points in three of four games played. Bama is spreading the ball around with no running back accounting for more than 26% of the volume share. He’ll need to break off a big play to reach value, but the last time he played the Razorbacks in 2020, he ripped of an 80-yard touchdown.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – QB K.J. Jefferson ($6,700) Arkansas will need to throw more than they’d like to in order to defeat Alabama on Saturday. Jefferson is up to 69.1% completion rate in 2022 with 12 total touchdowns to just one interception so he’s playing at a very high level. And Jefferson’s found success against this defense before, throwing for 326 yards with three total touchdowns in their matchup a year ago. FWIW – 179 of those yards came on just two plays. Alabama is second in coverage grades within the SEC, but against the most formidable opponent this season in Texas, the Tide allowed the Longhorns to complete 95% of the attempts.
Fade – RB Raheim Sanders ($6,100) Maybe the only game this season where we will not consider playing Sanders. The Tide are allowing just 62.5 rush yards per game, are eighth nationally in rush play success rate defensively and giving up only 9.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Bijan Robinson managed 22 fantasy points but averaged just 2.7 yards per attempt on the ground. We also saw the return of Dominique Johnson last week, who looked good with 32 yards on five attempts. Too many factors here pointing in the direction of fading Sanders.
Bargain Bin – WR Matt Landers ($3,200) Totaled one reception on a single target but did play 70 of the 77 offensive snaps against Texas A&M last week, so Landers is on the field plenty. And he’s not far removed from his 123-yard performance against Missouri State in Week 3.
Pivot Play – WR Jadon Haselwood ($6,700) Cannot fathom spending this salary on a wide receiver like Haselwood in a poor matchup. Fact is, though, he’s been there most consistent receiver this season with at least five receptions in each of the last three contests, averaging six targets a game. Haselwood also leads the team in drops with a 7.0 aDOT, so I likely won’t have him in a single lineup. I’d take a shot elsewhere on a cheap splash play like WR Ketron Jackson ($3,900) who scored a 32-yard TD last week.
Best of the Rest – TE Trey Knox ($3,300) Snap counts haven’t waivered, but Knox’s production is looking like last year with just 43 receiving yards in the last three weeks. Alabama is allowing just 3.8 FPPG to opposing tight ends.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oklahoma State vs. Baylor
Point-Spread: Baylor -2.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: Baylor 29.5 – OK State 27
Weather: 83 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Oklahoma State:
Top Play(s) – WR Braydon Johnson ($4,300) Another top play that comes with a caveat (see injury section below). But this is still too cheap for what has been Oklahoma State’s WR1 the first three games, averaging 8.6 targets per contest and over 80 yards receiving every week. Monitoring the injury report on Saturday morning will be crucial here, though. Baylor is allowing 27.6 FPPG to opposing WR1s so far this season, the seventh highest in the country. Teams can throw on the Bears.
Fade – RB Dominic Richardson ($6,800) Just a bad matchup here against the No. 2 rush defense in the Big 12. Baylor is eight in rush play success rate defensively and are allowing just 14.7 FPPG to opposing RB1s on the year. Oklahoma State’s offensive line is not good enough to combat with superior rush defenses. I do believe that we do see 15-20 carries from Richardson this week, though, for those of you that have been stressing over his sporadic workload the first three games.
Bargain Bin – WR John Paul Richardson ($3,800) JPR’s role within the offense would be unaffected by a Jaden Bray return as Oklahoma State routinely plays with two slot receivers. Richardson averages 4.0 targets per game with two touchdowns scored.
Pivot Play – QB Spencer Sanders ($6,500) Understatement to say that Spencer Sanders does not like playing Baylor. Or maybe just a Dave Aranda defense. Seven interceptions in two games last season. Threw for 347 yards and three scores back in 2020 but was forced into multiple interceptions again that game. He’s cut down on the turnover problem so far with just one interception thrown in three games. Every team has been able to throw on Baylor so far to some extent, with the Bears allowing over 60% completion rate over the last three games and giving up 23.3 FPPG to opposing QB1s.
Best of the Rest – WR Brennan Presley ($6,900) If I didn’t list Richardson in the fade section, it would have been Presley as its absolute insanity for him to be listed as the highest-priced Oklahoma State player. We’ve covered at nauseum the outside wide receiver trend under Mike Gundy and its playing out again with Braydon Johnson. Now how does that work with Johnson and potentially Bray in the lineup? Pass.
Injury Notes – TBD on if WR Jaden Bray ($3,100) will play or not, but HC Mike Gundy said he would be practicing this week for possibly his first appearance of the 2022 season. The 6-foot-2 wideout had 13 receptions for 250 yards and two touchdowns in 12 games played as a true freshman last season and was our projected WR1 for the Cowboys coming into the year. Bray averaged 19.2 yards per catch, the most by any Cowboys’ receiver with at least five catches last season.
Baylor:
Top Play(s) – RB Richard Reese ($4,900) Tougher sledding last week against Iowa State than it was against Texas State, but Reese managed to hit value with 78 yards and a touchdown. With Taye McWilliams sidelined again, expect another heave dose of Reese who accounted for 58% of the backfield market share. Statistically, the Oklahoma State run game is very good, ranking 24th in rush play success rate. On the flip side, the Cowboys have allowed 22.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Fade – WRs. Don’t even bother, regardless of pricing. 86th passing offense in the country and no wideout has more than 14% target share. I suppose Gavin Holmes ($3,600) has been the most productive, finding the end-zone the last two games, but very low volume targets.
Bargain Bin – RB Ben Sims ($3,700) Our preseason prediction of Ben Sims being Baylor’s top pass-catcher this season looks to be coming to fruition. Averaging five targets in three games played. After missing Week 3 against Texas State, Sims re-entered the lineup and caught five passes for 39 yards and a score. Very low upside here, but you’re safely looking at between 8-12 points from the Baylor TE1.
Pivot Play – QB Blake Shapen ($6,400) The sophomore is coming off, by far, his best performance of the season, throwing for 238 yards and three scores against a good Iowa State defense. The numbers aren’t overwhelming, Shapen is playing within the system, averaging nearly 70% completion rate with seven touchdowns to just one interception, and has hit 20 fantasy points each of the last two weeks. Oklahoma State is 60th in pass play success rate this season, already having given up a 40-point performance to Central Michigan’s Daniel Richardson in Week 1.
Best of the Rest – RB Craig Williams ($3,800) Has taken a backseat in the backfield with the emergence of Reese but is still averaging 12 rushing attempts a game over the last three weeks. Similar to Ben Sims, unless something happens to Reese, you’re capped with the upside here as a backup, but Williams continues to be involved in the offense in some aspect.
Injury Notes – RB Taye McWilliams will not play this week according to Dave Aranda.
Iowa State vs. Kansas
Point-Spread: Iowa St -3
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: Iowa St 30.5 – KU 27.5
Weather: 78 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Iowa State:
Top Play(s) – WR Xavier Hutchinson ($7,800) Must-play every week no matter the pricing it feels like. 36% target share. Has at least eight receptions in every game played this season, while averaging 13 targets per game. There isn’t another receiver on this slate that even comes close to those numbers.
Fade – WRs not named Hutchinson or Noel. 55% total team target share between the two Iowa State receivers and 65% of the team’s receiving production. Nobody else deserves consideration.
Bargain Bin – WR Jaylin Noel ($4,500) Good to see a breakout performance from Noel considering he’s peppered with targets each week – 6.25 on average – but they just don’t go anywhere. Averaged just 0.93 yards per route run, which spiked to 3.16 last week against Baylor in what was a career day. Not sure we can bank on 17.1 yards per reception each week from the sophomore receiver, but 6.25 targets per week isn’t bad from a $4.5K player.
Pivot Play – QB Hunter Dekkers ($5,800) I’m very much in this week on playing Dekkers against a Kansas defense that is ninth out of 10 teams in the Big 12 in scoring, and allowing 31.3 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks in 2022. Take out the season opener against Tennessee Tech, and all three QBs to face this Jayhawks defense have scored at least 27 fantasy points. 23.6-point projection is more than worthwhile at his pricing.
Best of the Rest – RB Jirehl Brock ($5,400) Iowa State’s RB1 is going to continue to be in the conversation of a lineup spot if we keep getting these types of salaries. Averaging just 74 rushing yards in the last two weeks on 21 total carries, but is dominating the backfield market share for the Cyclones so nobody else is involved in the running game. I do believe Brock will be a favorite in the optimizers out there so a potential fade spot in bigger GPPs as the Jayhawks are allowing under four yards per rush attempt on the year.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – QB Jalon Daniels ($7,000) 27-point projection this week at pricing would squarely put Daniels in the conversation to roster in our lineups. Game script should set up well for Daniels as KU is a 3.5-point dog, and Iowa State can be leaky on the backend, raking 58th in pass play success rate, and did allow a season-best performance to Blake Shapen just last week. The Cyclones are allowing just 15.2 FPPG to opposing QBs, but that’s a stat that also includes Spencer Petras’ 2.5 fantasy point performance. Skewed just a bit.
Fade – Everyone but Daniels. We’ll touch on some other potential options below, but this is just the nature of the Kansas offense this year. 50-50 split in the backfield which depresses both running back’s value. And there isn’t a receiver with more than 20% target share. Ball is spread around to a number of Jayhawks.
Bargain Bin – RB Daniel Hishaw Jr. ($3,700) I mean, I know Hishaw Jr. is splitting reps with Devin Neal in the Kansas backfield, but this is too low for a running back getting 10 touches a game and has found the end-zone in all four weeks. The Iowa State run defense is the strength of their team, allowing just 12 FPPG to opposing RB1s, are 25th in rush play success rate and No. 1 in the Big 12.
Pivot Play – WR Luke Grimm ($4,000) Tied for the team lead in targets with Lawrence Arnold ($6,200) at 19 with a team-high two receiving touchdowns so I’m very confused by the $2,200 salary discrepancy between the two players.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – RB Devin Neal ($4,900) Neal went into the medical tent against Duke last weekend but was seen on the sidelines (I believe in full pads) in the fourth quarter, so we’re under the impression he’s fine for this week.
Wake Forest vs. Florida State
Point-Spread: FSU -6.5
O/U Total: 64.5
Implied Score: FSU 35.5 – WF 29
Weather: 86 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Wake Forest:
Top Play(s) – QB Sam Hartman ($8,400) We’ll dive more into the WR situation below, but the amount of rotation that is going on for Wake Forest will make Hartman our top play each week now. And for good reason too as the senior quarterback has thrown for 13 touchdowns in the three games since his return to the field, topping 300 passing yards each week. FSU is very average across the board defensively in all aspects. Seminoles are allowing 28.0 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks in 2022.
Fade – RB Justice Ellison ($6,300) Same story each week. Wake Forest is 105th in the country in rushing, divides the carries relatively evenly between Ellison and backup Christian Turner, and the Seminoles are allowing just 13.0 FPPG to opposing running backs. At $5,300, maybeeee Ellison would be in the conversation as they did get things going against a top 10 run defense in Clemson last week. Not at this price.
Bargain Bin – WR Jahmal Banks ($3,000) At this time next year, we’ll be seeing Banks in the $7k range as the successor to AT Perry and Donavon Greene in 2023. And maybe you could make the argument he should be in that salary range right now after leading WF in targets (8) vs. Clemson last Saturday, finding the end-zone twice for the second consecutive game. Wake Forest now has five receivers playing between 55-65% of the offensive snaps each week, so it’ll be pick your poison from here on out.
Pivot Play – WR A.T. Perry ($7,200) Probably not worth it at his pricing, considering the fact Wake Forest has 5-6 legitimate options now in the passing game. But…Perry is still the far-and-away leader on the team in targets (32) and is still playing the most offensive snaps of any receiver on the team.
Best of the Rest – As stated above, we’re seeing five different receivers for Wake garner anywhere between 55-65% of the offensive snaps in a given week. Donovan Greene ($5,800), Keshawn Williams ($4,200) and Taylor Morin ($4,900) are all in the mix here. There’s been at least one Wake Forest receiver to score 20 fantasy points in each of the last three weeks too, so I suppose you could play Hartman naked and avoid the guessing game, but chances are someone will pop off.
Injury Notes – n/a
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – n/a. Three running backs have 25 carries or more on the season. No receiver has more than 20% target share. And Jordan Travis’ projection doesn’t match his salary. We want some exposure to FSU given they’re projected to score five touchdowns, but there isn’t one standout here from my vantage point. I think you roster FSU players in a game stack only.
Fade – WR Mycah Pittman ($7,200) Someone explain the algorithm to me like a child, because this has seemingly been a problem for much of Pittman’s career. Second among wide receivers in offensive snaps and third in targets. Why is he priced so much higher than the other FSU receivers?
Bargain Bin – RB Trey Benson ($3,000) Double-digit rushing attempts in three of the four games played this season, averaging over seven yards per attempt. Should be noted that his two best statistical performances came in blowout situations, but deserving of consideration at min pricing. Wake Forest is 70th in rush play success rate defensively and have allowed three running backs this season to top 20 fantasy points. FSU will be able to run on Wake.
Pivot Play – WR Johnny Wilson ($5,500) As we know from previous seasons, Florida State receivers are not a priority in DFS or any kind of fantasy game for that matter. But this group is vastly improved over recent years with the additions of Johnny Wilson and the aforementioned Pittman via the portal. Top three, along with Ontaria Wilson ($4,100), now combine for 51% of the team target share. None of the three are a priority but would still spend up here to Wilson who leads all receivers in targets (22), yards (272) and offensive snaps played. I’ll always lean the guy who’s on the field most.
Best of the Rest – QB Jordan Travis ($8,800) Jordan Travis is probably not worth $8,800 if he’s not running the football. He has 11 attempts in four games. And to my surprise, 10 of those were actually designed runs. 21.8 projection this week means we can fade Travis for some cheaper options, unless you are looking to game stack with the 65.5 total. Wake Forest made DJU look like Tom Brady last week, and dual threats have already given WF fits this season with Liberty’s Kaidon Salter topping 30 fantasy points. And now I’m talking myself more into Travis…
Injury Notes – n/a
Michigan State vs. Maryland
Point-Spread: MD -7.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: MD 33 – MSU 25.5
Weather: 62 degrees / 91% rain / 14 mph winds
Michigan State:
Top Play(s) – WR Keon Coleman ($4,200) This is not a team I’m targeting much at all after a disastrous last two Saturday’s where the Spartans were essentially blown out by two fringe top 25 teams. And they play another opponent of similar caliber on the road in a potential bad weather game. I’ll go with the cheapest viable option I can find then with Coleman who has led the Spartans in every game played this season, averaging 8.75 targets per contest.
Fade – RB Jalen Berger ($5,900) Leaning towards the MSU running game we saw in the first two weeks being a mirage. Absolutely putrid showings the last two weeks, averaging just slightly over two yards a carry. MSU offensive line deserves plenty of the blame too, ranking 81st in line yards and 76th in stuff rate. Maryland is only allowing 15 FPPG to opposing running backs on the season, and that’s including Blake Corum’s 30-point outburst last week. Maryland’s been fine against the run.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WR Jayden Reed ($6,000) Was targeted five times last week for minimal yardage, but wound up playing 80% of the offensive snaps, so any injury bug Reed was dealing with appears to be behind him. Game script again sets up for MSU having to throw this week and Reed’s speed can give defensive backs issues on a dry surface. Now add a rainy, slippery track.
Best of the Rest – QB Payton Thorne ($6,400) Credit to the Maryland secondary last week that had the Michigan passing game looking out of sorts. The stats back up that observation as the Terps are 28th nationally in pass play success rate. Allowing 23.2 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season, but much of that has come in garbage time being ahead on the scoreboard against their first three opponents.
Injury Notes – n/a
Maryland:
Top Play(s) – QB Taulia Tagovailoa ($6,800) Storylines galore here. (1) We have to monitor Tagovailoa’s status for Saturday as he’ll be a game-time decision per head coach Mike Locksley. The junior quarterback is a captain for the game and has practiced this week so likely a go. (2) Beautiful matchup against a reeling Michigan State secondary that is 98th in pass play success rate and one of the worst in the Big Ten. One more poor performance and we could see a defensive coordinator fired. And (3) we should consider the human aspect here with Taulia’s older brother now dealing with a severe concussion issue. Does that play a part in this game at all?
Fade – WR Dontay Demus ($6,000) Continues to see a high percentage of offensive snaps, but Demus is just a shell of what he was prior to the injury last season. Four targets last week for just 12 receiving yards. Hasn’t hit more than 30 yards in a game all season with two drops. Easy fade at this price.
Bargain Bin – TE Corey Dyches ($3,500) Longshot play here, but I don’t think we should discount Dyches here, particularly if Maryland is down one of their wide receivers. This Michigan State defense has struggled to defend tight ends the last year and a half. The Spartans allowed the most FPPG in the country to opposing tight ends a year ago, including a blowup game from Chig Okonkwo with 8-112-2 against this same defense. Dyches has six targets in each of the last two games. It’s a dart throw, but one to possibly consider.
Pivot Play – RB Roman Hemby ($5,300) Hemby is entering that territory of never being able to guess when his blowup performances are happening. Just like Marvin Mims. Just like CJ Verdell before that. The matchup isn’t great. If there is one thing Michigan State can do, its limit the run, allowing just 13.3 FPPG to opposing running backs and 18th nationally in rush play success rate. Hemby failed to score 10 fantasy points last week against the Wolverines but I loved the usage with 16 rushing attempts and three receptions. Now we have a better game-script matchup as a touchdown favorite, and everyone is going to be Taulia this week.
Best of the Rest – Should Rakim Jarrett not play, and with Demus struggling to produce, both Jeshaun Jones ($4,900) and Jacob Copeland ($5,000) are strong plays this week at affordable salaries. Jones sees the field far more, playing the most offensive snaps of any skill player last week against Michigan, and is third on the team for the year in total targets. Copeland has done more with less, playing nearly half the snaps that Jones has in 2022, yet is tied with two touchdowns.
Injury Notes – We hit on Taulia Tagovailoa above. WR Rakim Jarrett ($6,100) suffered a head injury late last week against the Wolverines and is deemed questionable and a game-time decision. With the sensitivity around concussions today, one has to wonder if the Terps play things safe here.
Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State
Point-Spread: MSU -3.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: Miss St. 24 – A&M 20.5
Weather: 79 degrees / 0% rain / 11 mph winds
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – RB Devon Achane ($6,400) Folks were questioning prior to the season if Achane could handle 20 touches a game despite his smaller frame. Turns out that answer is a resounding yes, as the junior running back accounts for just under 70% of the backfield volume share. No other running back has more than 10 carries on the year. While above average, this is not the dominant Mississippi State run D we’ve seen the last few seasons. 74th in rush play success rate.
Fade – QB Max Johnson ($6,100) Worst passing offense in the SEC and Johnson will now be without his top receiver. Easy fade.
Bargain Bin – WR Evan Stewart ($3,600) Maybe the most popular play on the entire slate? Ainias Smith is out for the season and will hurt, but this should enable some of the underclassmen to step into the spotlight. Most prominently Stewart who was tied with Smith for the team lead in targets (24) …and that’s despite missing a game due to suspension. Next closest A&M player to Stewart in targets? Devon Achane with 12.
Pivot Play – Rostering anyone else for A&M. I wouldn’t touch anyone else on this offense besides Achane and Stewart this week until we see some more clarity on the WR rotations. And even then, A&M can’t throw the ball consistently even with all of the 4-5 star talent at the wide receiver position. Money can’t by good passing offenses.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – WR Ainias Smith is out for the season with a foot injury.
Mississippi State:
Top Play(s) – QB Will Rogers ($6,600) Rogers is second in FBS in passing yards and you’re telling me I can get him for $6.6K? Last year at A&M, Rogers threw for 408 yards and three touchdowns. As a true freshman, Rogers completing 83% of his passes against this Aggies defense. Texas A&M has been downright stingy on defense this season, tied for eighth in the country in scoring and are fifth in pass play success rate. But maybe this is one where we just down overthink it.
Fade – RB Dillon Johnson ($5,600) See below on the injury front. We’ll get a 50-50 time share in the Mississippi State backfield, meaning both players’ ceilings are capped.
Bargain Bin – WR Caleb Ducking ($4,700) We’re not getting Makai Polk-like production from Ducking this year, and 100 targets is “probably” not going to happen either, but the Z-position in Mike Leach’s offense continues to be profitable year in, year out. A team-high five touchdowns with 18 receptions coming in the last three games alone. Trending up, and should not be this cheap.
Pivot Play – n/a
Best of the Rest – Seven different Mississippi State players with 10 or more receptions. No receiver with more than 16% target share. I’d go with the best/cheapest/most realistic option in Ducking and fade the rest. WR Rufus Harvey ($5,900) leads the team in targets with 20, vbut averaging just 9.9 YPC and an aDOT of 6.1. He needs higher volume to reach value. Rara Thomas ($5,600) has seen his playing time decline the last two weeks, playing just 54% of the offensive snaps as he shares time with Tulu Griffin.
Injury Notes – RB Jo’Quavious Marks ($5,200) Marks’ position coach spoke to the media this week and said he’s ready to roll after missing the Bowling Green game.
