Mississippi State vs. Alabama
Point-Spread: Bama -21
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: Bama 41 – MSU 19.5
Weather: 72 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Mississippi State:
Most likely a full team fade here. What started as a promising campaign for receivers like Caleb Ducking ($5,800) and Rara Thomas ($5,700) has turned into the nightmare scenario where Mike Leach will rotate 7-8 receivers, essentially nullifying their value. That’s been the case as no MSU wideout has more than 15% target share. RB Dillon Johnson ($5,500) has been confirmed OUT, so it’ll be mostly RB Jo’Quavious Marks ($5,000). Only a potential option in DK in the full-point PPR format. 21 of his 33 targets have come in the last two games. Alabama is outscoring Mississippi State 90-9 since Mike Leach’s arrival so I don’t have a ton of confidence QB Will Rogers ($7,600) and this offense can buck the trend against an angry Alabama defense. Rogers threw for 300 yards against the Tide a year ago, but also tossed three INTs with zero scores.
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – RB Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,800) I’ll be very curious to see if Gibbs is a test case for other superstar college football players in the future. Sporadic usage in the non-conference and then exploding in conference play with the type of workload we expected in the preseason. 20+ touches in each of the last three games, facing a Mississippi State defense that is a shell of what they’ve been in year’s past, ranking ninth in the SEC in yards allowed on the ground and 104th in success rate. Gibbs is close to lock territory.
Fade – WR Traeshon Holden ($6,700) As we kind of suspected earlier in the regular season, the Alabama WR corps is finally starting to take firm shape as we near towards the latter portion of the year. Holden played just 12 snaps against Tennessee as we’re seeing some of the young pups get more work in the slot.
Bargain Bin – WR Tyler Harrell ($3,900) General rule is that I need to see at least one game of evidence before investing in playing a guy in CFF. DFS, particularly GPP, is much different because of our goal to differentiate from the crowd. So, I can understand possibly playing Harrell this week. He’s been practicing for two weeks now with no limitations and seem close to playing. Could this be the week? He would fill the Burton role.
Pivot Play – QB Bryce Young ($9,100) GPP-play only as there are cheaper options at our disposal in the slate, and the matchup isn’t great as MSU is 24th in pass play success rate and giving up only 20.8 FPPG to opposing QBs. Still, that Tennessee game reinforced just how much of a wizard Young is with the football as he set season-highs with 52 attempts, 35 completions and 455 passing yards. Don’t think we see that volume as a three-touchdown favorite.
Best of the Rest – WR JaCorey Brooks ($5,800) The sophomore has ascended to the top of the depth chart, scoring four touchdowns in the last four games, and leading all Tide receivers in snaps vs. Tennessee. Not the strongest crop of WRs to choose from in this slate so Brooks is definitely in play. JoJo Earle ($4,300) had just one target but played a season-high 34 offensive snaps. WR Kobe Prentice ($5,900) is intriguing and did have a season-high 10 targets against Tennessee. The freshman only averaged 3.8 targets per game prior to that, so feels a bit like an outlier in a game Alabama was trailing.
Injury Notes – WR Jermaine Burton ($6,100) Non-injury related but I’d be surprised if Burton played the entire game or played at all against MSU after striking a female fan following the Tennessee matchup. Not that Burton has been productive enough to even warrant spending up to $6,100. This feels like the most we’ve talked about him all season.
Boise State vs. Air Force
Point-Spread: AF -2.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: AF 25 – BSU 22.5
Weather: 67 degrees / 0% rain / 13 mph winds
Boise State:
Top Play(s) – RB George Holani ($7,100) Holani’s numbers have skyrocketed since instituting Taylen Green as the starting QB, averaging over eight yards a carry with three total touchdowns in the last two games. Average run defense for Air Force this year, ranking 45th in rush play success rate and allowing 14.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Still, its been a dramatic shift in offensive philosophy following the Hank Bachmeier transfer, as Boise State is running the ball 71% of the time over that span.
Fade – WR Stefan Cobbs ($7,500) This one pains me as a Stefan Cobbs truther in the preseason. The quarterback situation and offensive scheme just did not pan out, rendering Cobbs and the rest of the Boise State receivers useless. We don’t have a single Boise State receiver projected at over nine fantasy points so this is an easy fade.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – QB Taylen Green ($6,100) Any quarterback who can get you 100 yards on the ground is always in play, which Green has done twice already this season, while winning both of his starts. Not in love with the matchup against an Air Force defense that is giving up 15.4 FPPG to opposing QBs on the year and will undoubtedly be a game with minimal posessions given how much both teams run the football. Though, if Cooper Legas can score 34 fantasy points against Air Force, Green has the skill to do the same.
Best of the Rest – RB Ashton Jeanty ($4,500) George Holani isn’t the only one getting in on the action with true FR and future stud Ashton Jeanty seeing double-digit carries in four of the last five games. GPP play here coming off a season-high 19 rushing attempts as most players likely won’t roster Boise State’s “backup.”
Injury Notes – n/a
Air Force:
We’re taking the Wisconsin DFS approach here of FB Brad Roberts ($7,000) or bust. This is a dominant Boise State defense. The Broncos have allowed the fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing running backs in 2022. Boise State has also allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing QB1s this season at just 13.5 FPPG. Only Chance Nolan in the opener score more than 14 fantasy points against this secondary.
Texas A&M vs. South Carolina
Point-Spread: A&M -3
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: A&M 24 – SC 20.5
Weather: 63 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – RB Devon Achane ($5,600) High priority cash game play and probably a GPP lock considering his absurd pricing. South Carolina is 11th in the SEC in rush defense, 99th in rush play success rate and 118th in explosiveness allowed on the ground. Nobody threatens Achane for carries at 70% backfield market share.
Fade – QBs. Max Johnson is out. Haynes King did not finish the Alabama game at 100%. And there are murmurs that 5-star Conner Weigman could get some run on Saturday. A&M isn’t good enough of a passing team for us to really care about whomever is behind center.
Bargain Bin – WR Chris Marshall ($3,000) That NIL money A&M handed out is starting to pay off finally. The 6-foot-3 four-star FR played the most offensive snaps of any Aggie receiver in Week 6 vs. Alabama, catching three passes on four targets. Smooth looking athlete.
Pivot Play – WR Moose Muhammad III ($4,100) Stewart is the WR1, but Muhammad has been the biggest beneficiary since the Ainias Smith as he’s now found the end-zone in each of the last two games starting in the slot. A combined 12 receptions on 17 targets in those two contests.
Best of the Rest – WR Evan Stewart ($4,100) Season-high eight receptions on 15 targets in the loss to Alabama in Week 6. Stewart is now averaging 9.6 targets per game on the year. Even though we have a centralized target tree now with 2-3 viable pass-catchers, I would not stack multiple WRs in a lineup, even though they’re cheap. This is still the A&M passing game.
Injury Notes – We’ll see who gets the starting nod Saturday between Haynes King or Conner Weigman.
South Carolina:
RB MarShawn Lloyd ($6,000) is the only viable South Carolina option as the former 5-star looks all the way back following a 110-yard, two-touchdown performance against Kentucky. And the Wildcats have a far superior rush defense than Lloyd’s Week 8 opponent as the Aggies defense allows just under 190 rush yards per game which ranks 13th out of 14 SEC teams. Not rostering any pieces from the South Carolina passing game facing an A&M secondary that is 12th in pass play success rate.
Minnesota vs. Penn State
Point-Spread: PSU -5.5
O/U Total: 43.5
Implied Score: PSU 24.5 – Minn 19
Weather: 55 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Minnesota:
Minnesota has thrown for six interceptions and zero touchdowns in the last two games. Tanner Morgan traveled with the team to Happy Valley, but our only interest here is in big Mo Ibrahim ($8,400). I don’t think Minnesota or Ibrahim is capable of going on the road and replicating the success Michigan had a week ago against the Nittany Lions, but the Gophers offensive line gives them a chance. 1st in the country in line yards, 7th in stuff rate, 9th in second level yards and 4th in rush play success rate. Those are elite numbers considering there is no passing game to threaten a defense.
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – RB Kaytron Allen ($4,100) I do think this can be a bounce back performance for the entire Penn State running game, but it only makes fiscal sense to roster Allen over Nick Singleton ($5,300) given that is has been a 50-50 split in carries dating back to Week 3. Allen has now found the end-zone in three of the last four games. Not the easiest of matchups where Minnesota is allowing just 12.9 FPPG to opposing running backs and it did take Chase Brown 41 carries to get to 185 yards last week. But we’re grasping at straws here in what should be a slog of a game.
Fade – QB Sean Clifford ($7,000) When will the charade end? I get the experience factor, but Sean Clifford isn’t healthy and isn’t performing up to a level Penn State should accept. This will mark Clifford’s 40th start of his career but would not shock anyone to see 5-star Drew Allar at some point on Saturday. Minnesota has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in the country.
Bargain Bin – TE Brenton Strange ($3,800) Penn State’s offense has been at its peak this season when the tight end has been involved in the passing game. Just two targets combined for Strange in the last two games. Strange leads the Nittany Lions in receiving touchdowns (4) and is third in total routes run.
Pivot Play – WR Parker Washington ($6,000) or Mitchell Tinsley ($6,600) The duo combined for 14 of the 23 targets last week against Michigan and do account for 41% of the team’s total target share. Is this the game they get on track? Unlikely as the Gophers have allowed the fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing wide receivers.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – Sean Clifford is the only player that needs monitoring pregame I believe, but everything points to him starting Saturday night.
UCF vs. East Carolina:
Point-Spread: UCF -4.5
O/U Total: 63.5
Implied Score: UCF 34 – ECU 29.5
Weather: 64 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Central Florida:
Top Play(s) – QB John Rhys Plumlee ($8,400) You simply make it work with your lineup construction to fit JRP at quarterback. Our second-highest projected player of the entire college football weekend coming off a seven-touchdown performance against Temple last week, JRP has another nice matchup with an ECU defense that is allowing 29.4 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks in 2022.
Fade – RB Johnny Richardson ($4,300) With a five-point spread, we’re likely only going to see extended playing time for Richardson if Isaiah Bowser were to go down with injury. UCF has gotten RJ Harvey into the mix of late, dipping into Richardson’s workload even further.
Bargain Bin – RB RJ Harvey ($3,000) On that note, Harvey is unlikely to see more than 5-7 carries unless this game turns into a blowout, but has emerged as the RB2 behind Bowser, averaging over eight yards a carry on the year. In all four games played, Harvey has averaged over six yards per attempt. They need to get this guy more touches.
Pivot Play – RB Isaiah Bowser ($6,800) This would be the pivot play of the weekend in GPPs as everyone is going to roster JRP. Not out of the realm of possibilities Bowser vultures touchdowns inside the red-zone – he did it three times just two weeks ago against SMU. The ECU defense is best at defending the run, though, ranking 13th in rush play success rate. Randomly, the only running backs to score more than 20 fantasy points against ECU this season are Asa Martin and Vincent Terrell (who?).
Best of the Rest – WR Ryan O’Keefe ($7,300) The surest bet among the UCF receivers, averaging 5.8 targets per game, and has posted back-to-back 100-yard performances with four touchdowns in the last two weeks. ECU is allowing the 11th most FPPG in the country to opposing WR1s at 24.4 fantasy points. We know he’s good to go, it’s the other WR spot where I’m a bit hazy. Is Javon Baker ($7,100) injured? Played a season-low 21 snaps against Temple with one target. That allowed for Kobe Hudson’s ($6,000) breakout performance with 4-121-2 on five targets. He’s been slowly reintegrated back into the offensive rotation the last two games.
Injury Notes – Monitoring the Javon Baker news – if there is any to be uncovered – in the pregame.
East Carolina:
Top Play(s) – WR Isaiah Winstead ($7,400) If you’ve followed along with our CFF content, you know how big of fans we are of the former Toledo transfer this year. Yet another monster performance last week with nine receptions for 154 yards and is the clear-cut alpha with 31% target share. That’s elite territory when above that 30% threshold.
Fade – Backup RBs. This was a 50-50 split when Rahjai Harris was healthy and in the lineup. In the shootout with Memphis last Saturday, Keaton Mitchell ($6,300) had 88% of the backfield market share with backup Marlon Gunn Jr. getting just four attempts. UCF is best against the run, allowing just 12.0 FPPG to opposing RB1s and 19th in rush play success rate. Take out the performances against South Carolina State and Temple, though, and UCF is giving up 4.9 YPC on the year.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WR C.J. Johnson ($5,400) Nowhere near as consistent this season as Winstead, but Johnson has one of the highest ceilings of any player on this entire slate. We saw that three weeks ago in the 7-197-4 performance against South Florida. Third on the team in targets (37) and routes run, and a team-high 17.8 yards per catch. Everyone will be on Winstead this week – and for good reason – but Johnson does have slate-breaking ability.
Best of the Rest – QB Holton Ahlers ($7,200) Love Ahlers as a bring-back candidate in a possible game stack. The senior QB is having one of his best statistical seasons of his career, sitting right at around 300 passing yards per game with 17 TDs and five interceptions. Overall numbers aren’t bad for UCF defensively, allowing just 20.4 FPPG to opposing QBs and 64th in pass play success rate. Night game at home against a ranked opponent? I like for ECU to come out firing. I do believe, though, that UCF has the No. 1 ranked red-zone defense.
Injury Notes – WR Jaylen Johnson ($5,300) Johnson has missed the last two games due to injury, but I believe is expect to return Saturday. Fourth on the team in targets (29) and fifth in routes run.
Colorado vs. Oregon State
Point-Spread: Oreg St -23.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: Oreg St 36 – Col 12.5
Weather: 51 degrees / 95% rain / 4 mph winds
Colorado:
Anytime you have the chance to include the 129th ranked scoring offense on a primary DFS slate, you just must do it, right? We have just one Colorado player projected to score more than 10 fantasy points, and that’s a quarterback who is questionable to start. No thanks.
Oregon State:
Top Play(s) – RB Damien Martinez ($3,500) Was a matter of when, not if, Martinez would take over the starting running back job over some middling veterans. The 3-star freshman was making waves in Oregon State practices dating all the way back to early March and was just a matter of time before he would assume to the top spot on the depth chart. Martinez became the first freshman since Jermar Jefferson to surpass 100 yards in a game and is averaging over 10 yards a carry the last two weeks.
Fade – Deshaun Fenwick ($5,200) See above. Fenwick now should be the third option on the depth chart.
Bargain Bin – RB Jamious Griffin ($3,100) Three running backs mentioned on one team? I think it’s imperative to lock down this situation for this week as Colorado has allowed the third most fantasy points in the country to opposing RBs. 95% chance rain. Oregon State just needs to run, run, run and not risk turnovers because that’s the only way Colorado stands a chance in the matchup. Biggest detriment to rostering Griffin, or any Oregon State RB for that matter, might be senior fullback Jack Colletto who vultured two rushing TDs against Washington State last week. He leads the team with six rushing scores.
Pivot Play – WR TreShaun Harrison ($6,800) Don’t see Harrison being rostered much this week with Oregon State likely to keep the ball on the ground for much of the evening. The former Florida State transfer does sit at 29% target share but his production has been extremely sporadic looking at the game logs.
Best of the Rest – QB Ben Gulbranson ($4,500) Gulbranson will make his third-straight start as Chance Nolan has been rule out for Saturday. Don’t see Oregon State throwing the ball much considering the impending weather and matchup.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas State vs. TCU
Point-Spread: TCU -3.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: TCU 29 – KSU 25.5
Weather: 81 degrees / 0% rain / 13 mph winds
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – QB Adrian Martinez ($8,300) Tough to see a scenario here in which Martinez busts. He’s averaging over 41 FPPG so far in conference play and had over 300 total yards of offense the last time we saw him against the best defense in the Big 12 in Iowa State. TCU is not that, particularly defending the run where they’re 75th in rush play success rate. We know Martinez will run and game script here as a 3.5-point dog sides towards him having to throw more than 15 passes as well. TCU has struggled with dual-threats with Jason Bean and Spencer Sanders posting 30+ point fantasy performances.
Fade – n/a
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – Kansas State WRs Both Malik Knowles ($4,400) and Phillip Brooks ($4,600) topped the century mark in Week 6 vs. Iowa State. We’ve also seen an uptick in the production overall, particularly with Brooks where 217 of his 280 receiving yards have come in the last three games alone. TCU is 26th in pass play success rate, but are prone to giving up the big play, ranking 127th in pass play explosiveness.
Best of the Rest – RB Deuce Vaughn ($7,200) Vaughn has been fine running the ball this season, it’s his lack of production in the passing game that is killing his fantasy value. Averaging just 3.1 targets per game, and hasn’t had a game over 30 receiving yards all year – he surpassed that mark six times in 2021. TCU has allowed three running backs to top 24 fantasy points this season and are a middle-of-the-road Big 12 rush defense. Vaughn and Martinez has had their hands on 87% of the team’s total offensive production in 2022 so I’m not afraid of rostering both in a lineup together.
Injury Notes – n/a
TCU:
Top Play(s) – RB Kendre Miller ($5,900) After averaging just 12.6 carries per game in the non-con, Miller is now getting 17.6 attempts per in Big 12 games and has found the end-zone in every game this season. Kansas State’s rush defense is one of the better groups in the conference, allowing 14.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s and 30th in rush play success rate. Just think the game script favors Miller here, and his pricing is very attainable.
Fade – WRs Not named QJ. After the two-week explosion, Johnston now has 28% of the team’s total target share, with Derius Davis ($6,200) sitting second, averaging only 4.1 targets per. Explosive player who now leads TCU in touchdowns but you can’t spend $6.2k on a guy getting only four targets a game. Same logic for Taye Barber ($5,600). If choosing one, I’d at least lean the former who’s seen 18 of his 25 targets in the last three weeks.
Bargain Bin – WR Savion Williams ($4,200) Desperation play if in need of a cheap filler. Did play 73 of 88 offensive snaps against Oklahoma State last week and has had at least three targets in each of the last four games. Does present matchup problems for smaller DBs at 6-foot-5.
Pivot Play – WR Quentin Johnston ($7,000) After hauling in just 12 catches in the first four games, Johnston now has 22 catches for 386 yards with two touchdowns in the last two weeks. Does it continue? Kansas State is allowing the 11th fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing WR1s this season, and this will not be the fast-paced Big 12 game that we’re accustomed to seeing with the Wildcats’ ball-controlled offense.
Best of the Rest – QB Max Duggan ($7,900) I’ll say it – I think our projection is way too high for Max Duggan this week. Kansas State has allowed some monster fantasy performances to Dillon Gabriel and Donovan Smith, but both included a ton of garbage time stats with Kansas State ahead. Overall, KSU is allowing 24.9 FPPG on the year and are 16th in pass play success rate. I’d have Duggan’s projection closer to the 24.9 number this week.
Injury Notes – n/a
Pittsburgh vs. Louisville
Point-Spread: UL -2.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: UL 29 – Pitt 26.5
Weather: 69 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Pitt:
Top Play(s) – RB Israel Abanikanda ($8,000) Stating the obvious here with Abanikanda as the top play – we all saw what he did the last time he was on the field against Virginia Tech. More on the RB situation below, but still have to figure that Abanikanda will get the bulk of the carries on Saturday. By no means is Louisville a good run defense, but they’re only allowing 15.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s and 56th in rush play success rate. Sean Tucker was the only RB to score over 20 fantasy points against the Cardinals this season.
Fade – QB Kedon Slovis ($6,400) Three performances this season where Slovis has failed to score double-digit fantasy points. This is now a run-based offense under OC Frank Cignetti as the Panthers are 45th in rush play percentage. Zero upside.
Bargain Bin – TE Gavin Bartholomew ($3,900) While we’ll fade Slovis entirely, Pitt is a 3.5-point underdog and don’t foresee them running the ball as easily as they did against Virginia Tech. Slight uptick in production from the TE1 the last two games with six receptions on eight targets in that span. No Bradley or Mumpfield should mean increased targets for the remaining pass-catchers.
Pivot Play – WR Jared Wayne ($5,100) Has the questionable tag on DK, but don’t think there is any reason to suspect Wayne won’t play this week. Second on team in targets (33) and receptions (25), and has posted at least 80 receiving yards in five of the six games played in 2022.
Best of the Rest – WR Bub Means ($4,500) Someone has to catch the football, right? Means is eliminated from the pool for me if Mumpfield plays, but he becomes the secondary option behind Wayne if the Akron transfer is out. Third on the team in targets (26), receptions (16) and routes run.
Injury Notes – WR Jaden Bradley ($3,400) Not injured related, but Bradley did enter the transfer portal this week. Kind of surprising given that he had a season-high nine targets against Georgia Tech. Interesting to see no injury designation for Rodney Hammond ($6,100). HC Pat Narduzzi’s comments make it sound like Hammond will NOT play this weekend, saying he’s still not at 100%. That said, Hammond was in pregame warmups in pads two weeks ago. TBD here. Pitt’s beat writer is projecting Hammond will play Saturday. WR Konata Mumpfield ($6,300) is listed as out but is considered a game-time decision.
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – QB Malik Cunningham ($7,400) Cunningham is expected to be back in the saddle Saturday night and is the only Louisville player we have projected to score double-digit fantasy points. Three quarterbacks have scored 25 fantasy points or more against the Pitt defense this season and struggled to contain Jeff Sims in the Panthers previous matchup with a dual-threat QB, allowing 81 yards and a TD on 19 attempts. Overall, Pitt is best in the secondary in 2022, ranking 25th in pass play success rate and 44th in explosiveness allowed so they keep everything in front.
Fade – WR Ahmari Huggins-Bruce ($5,600) This play could also go in the injury section, but there was some controversy about a deleted tweet with AHB this week stating that he would be out a few games. Scott Satterfield had zero interest in talking about it to the media, but this type of stuff scares me off. Not sure if injury or punishment related.
Bargain Bin – RB Trevion Cooley ($3,000) A play that could bite me tonight because of my personal bias towards Cooley. We could see as many as all four Louisville running backs tonight, and I’m not 100% sure what the staff feels the pecking order is. Still think Cooley is worth a play at cost, especially if Evans is out because he’s better than both Jahwar Jordan and Jalen Mitchell. Reps for Cooley have increased as the season’s gone along, and had a season high 77 yards on 18 carries last time out against UVA.
Pivot Play – WR Tyler Hudson ($7,700) Pricey but Hudson is the far-and-away leader on the team in targets (46) and routes run this season, coming off a season-high 7-101-0 vs. Virginia in Week 6. Opposing WR1s are averaging 22.3 FPPG against this Pitt defense in 2022, the 20th highest mark in the country. Should come at very low ownership in GPPs as the highest-priced WR on the slate. I won’t be spending up personally, but Hudson has played the second most offensive snaps of any Louisville player in 2022.
Best of the Rest – TE Marshon Ford ($3,900) Four receptions for Ford in each of the last two games, coming off a season-high eight targets vs. UVA.
Injury Notes – Both Tiyon Evans ($5,100) and Jalen Mitchell ($3,000) were practicing this week, with the latter at full health. Scott Satterfield said as of Sunday that Evans was still at a limited basis. Hopefully we get official word Saturday afternoon.
