Illinois vs. Michigan
Point-Spread: UM -17.5
O/U Total: 41.5
Implied Score: UM 29.5 – Illini 12
Weather: 28 degrees / 0% rain / 21 mph winds
Illinois:
This is probably going to be a stay away entirely with the only realistic option in RB Chase Brown ($8,300) being questionable after leaving late last week with a foot injury as he needed to be helped off the field vs. Purdue. HC Bret Bielema said both Brown and backup Josh McCray ($4,000) are “trending in the right direction” but are likely game-time decisions. Third-stringer RB Reggie Love ($3,300) would be the emergency starter, but are you really playing him against the nation’s No. 1 rush defense? WR Isaiah Williams ($5,900) continues to pace the Illini with 64 receptions on 81 targets but faces a Wolverines secondary that has allowed the third fewest fantasy points to WR1s in the country. If WR Brian Hightower ($4,900) were $1k cheaper, I might have interest here as his playing time has increased the last two weeks with a combined 12 targets and a TD. Big, physical receivers have been the ones to give the Michigan defenders the most fits this year.
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Blake Corum ($8,500) Both the top play for Michigan and a fade candidate as the second highest-priced RB on the slate. If the passing game isn’t clicking, there’s always the Heisman Trophy candidate ready and willing to tote the rock 30 times in Corum who is 4th in the country with 1,349 rushing yards entering Saturday. The Wolverines will be challenged in the trenches as well against an Illini run defense that ranks 6th in yards allowed per game and haven’t allowed more than 150 yards in a game since Week 1. Opposing RB1s are averaging just 11.7 FPPG against the Illini front.
Fade – RB Donovan Edwards ($5,800) “We’ll see” was the quote from Jim Harbaugh this week when asked about Corum’s running mate, after he played just a handful of snaps against Nebraska due to injury. Because of Illinois’ strength on defense and Edwards being questionable, he’s an easy fade even if he’s suited up. This also makes for Corum being potentially the safest bet to his 25 rushing attempts of any RB on the slate.
Bargain Bin – TE Colston Loveland ($3,300) Name to know down the road because the coaching staff loves this 3-star freshman tight end who played 58 of 62 offensive snaps in place of the injured Luke Schoonmaker ($3,600). If Schoonmaker is available, just slot him in place of Loveland with both tight ends having reasonable pricing. For as good as the Illinois defense has been this year, they’re allowing 9.6 FPPG to opposing TE1s – 14th highest mark in the country. Three Big Ten tight ends have scored 12 fantasy points or more vs. Illinois this season, including a season-high 26 from Payne Durham last week.
Pivot Play – WR Ronnie Bell ($5,900) Everyone knows by now the weekly routine with Michigan receivers – a complete guessing game. And not a game we should want to play against a team that has allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing WR1s. Bell continues to lead the Wolverines with 28% target share and 45 receptions.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Nothing here dictates playing any Wolverines on the Saturday Main Slate given matchup, pricing and implied team total that has dropped throughout the week. That said, this is a ramp-up game for the Wolverines as opposed to a look-ahead spot. Expect Michigan to potentially open up the playbook some in preparation for next Saturday.
Injury Notes – Keep tabs on Donovan Edwards and Luke Schoonmaker. Michigan beat writers have been good about announcing who isn’t suited up.
Wisconsin vs. Nebraska
Point-Spread: Wisc -10.5
O/U Total: 38.5
Implied Score: Wisc 24.5 – Neb 14
Weather: 30 degrees / 0% rain / 16 mph winds
Wisconsin:
I wonder if Wisconsin takes the same approach Michigan did a week ago vs. the Cornhuskers and just bleed the clock with the running game against an inept Nebraska offense. Turnovers is essentially the only way Nebraska wins this game and we know Graham Mertz is prone to those. RB Braelon Allen ($7,000) might go under-owned this week against a Cornhuskers rush defense that is allowing 22.9 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season – eighth most in the country.
Nebraska:
Who do we think Nebraska will hire to be their next football coach? I’d rather have that conversation than the on-field play right now. Matt Rhule seems to be the trending name, with Lance Leipold and Chris Klieman in the mix.
Washington State vs. Arizona
Point-Spread: Wazzu -3.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: Wazzu 33 – Az 29.5
Weather: 65 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Washington State:
Top Play(s) – RB Nakia Watson ($3,800) Blatant mispricing here by DraftKings. Watson is our highest projected Washington State player this week and sitting at $3.8k. 100+ rushing yards in back-to-back games since returning from injury with four rushing scores in that span. Arizona isn’t much better than Arizona State at defending the run, allowing 22.0 FPPG to opposing RB1s for the year. Lock of the slate.
Fade – WR De’Zhaun Stribling ($6,000) Stribling is the best Washington State receiver but just doesn’t make much fiscal sense to roster him at his pricing with the way the Cougars spread it around in the passing game. At least not on a main slate. 18% target share is not a number we like to see, essentially making this a crapshoot.
Bargain Bin – WR Leyton Smithson ($3,000) I was going to say fade all Washington State receivers for reasons stated above, but Smithson is dirt cheap at $3k for a full-time starter. 22 of his 27 targets this season have come in the last four games.
Pivot Play – QB Cameron Ward ($6,800) We love to target the Arizona rush defense in college fantasy, but the pass defense is equally as inept. 125th in pass play success rate and allowing 31.6 FPPG to opposing QB1s. If this were a larger game spread, I’d say we could fade Ward as Wazzu would dominate on the ground, but Vegas thinks Arizona is going to keep this one close apparently.
Best of the Rest – WR Donovan Ollie ($4,300) Second on the team in routes run, targets (57) and touchdowns (3) yet priced as the fourth or fifth option. Makes some sense when you consider Ollie hasn’t hit 40 receiving yards in a game since September. For a 6-foot-3 receiver, it’s stunning to see Ollie’s aDOT of just 1.7. Doesn’t feel like he’s being utilized properly in this scheme.
Injury Notes – WR Renard Bell ($5,600) HC Jake Dickert said that Bell will return this week “but in a lesser role.” The leans more to the fact we just fade the entire Wazzu WR corps.
Arizona:
Top Play(s) – QB Jayden de Laura ($7,900) Jayden de Laura vs. the team that cast him aside last year. We all love a good revenge game. And JDL is coming off a superb performance last week against UCLA on the road. This isn’t the greatest of matchups though against a Washington State secondary that ranks 27th in PFF coverage grades and allows just 20.9 FPPG to opposing QB1s.
Fade – n/a. Going to say n/a here for a fade play with the offensive production centralized among the key contributors, but I don’t love the matchup for any Arizona player this week outside of McLachlan.
Bargain Bin – TE Tanner McLachlan ($3,600) Nothing flashy, but McLachlan has been a pleasant surprise this year for the Wildcats, now fourth on the team in receptions (29) and targets (43). Strong matchup against a Washington State defense that is struggling to defend the tight end position, allowing 10.3 FPPG in 2022. Four Pac-12 tight ends have scored double digit fantasy points against the Cougars, and McLachlan is better than all but Dalton Kincaid.
Pivot Play – RB Michael Wiley ($6,200) Similar to de Laura, Wiley is coming off his best performance of the year vs. UCLA with 97 yards and a TD on 22 carries, while also catching six passes on as many targets. Wazzu is top 30 nationally in rush play success rate, yet they’re allowing 17.9 FPPG to opposing RB1s for the year with four Pac-12 running backs hitting 20 fantasy points or more against the Cougars. 15 targets in the last three games for Wiley who is a tremendous option out of the backfield.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Pick your poison between the trio of Jacob Cowing, Dorian Singer and Tetairoa who makeup one of the best WR trios in the country. The issue – Washington State’s secondary. We spoke on their coverage grades per PFF. WR1s are averaging just 14.5 FPPG against Washington State this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
TCU vs. Baylor
Point-Spread: TCU -2.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: TCU 30 – Bayl 27.5
Weather: 47 degrees / 38% rain / 12 mph winds
TCU:
We’re cheating here as TCU has been on every main or night slate this season so those that have kept up with the writeups this year know the main players. Everyone is priced accordingly so there are not any major deals to be had or major injuries that we need to be wary of. QB Max Duggan is an ok play at $8,000 with a projection of 24 fantasy points. That is directly in line with the Baylor defense that allows 24.9 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season. RB Kendre Miller ($6,800) continues to be matchup proof as one of the best running backs in the nation, though Baylor is stout up front, ranking 31st in rush play success rate. The Bears have been absolutely gashed by Big 12 running backs, though, where five different players have scored 20 fantasy points or more against them. No TCU receiver has had more than 70 yards receiving in the last two games as Duggan is spreading the ball around to 5-6 different options. We’re out on the TCU wideouts. Horned Frogs should be on upset alert here on the road against a team that just took a beating the week prior.
Baylor:
Top Play(s) – RB Richard Reese ($6,100) Do you know what Baylor was doing when Richard Reese had around 300 combined rushing yards against Texas Tech and Kansas in a two-game span? WINNING. Hopefully Dave Aranda realizes the key to Baylor’s success offensively and gives their best player the football. Reese did lead the team in attempts (9) last week, but we saw both Qualan Jones and Craig Williams get run too. I don’t trust Aranda right now to give Reese 15+ touches, but he’s the best option Baylor has.
Fade – QB Blake Shapen ($5,900) Should we be worried about Shapen’s long-term outlook? Two passing touchdowns in the last four games. Still completing 65% of his passes and the third best QB rating in the Big 12, but the fantasy production hasn’t been there. Shapen threw the ball 38 times last week, resulting in three points. That is not the recipe to success for the Baylor offense.
Bargain Bin – WR Josh Cameron ($3,800) Game script last week played a major role in Cameron getting 10 targets last week, but his playing time has increased substantially in the last three games. 18 of his 28 targets have come in that span.
Pivot Play – WR Monaray Baldwin ($6,000) Inconsistent production but Baldwin is the game-breaker of the Baylor WR room and was targeted a season-high 13 times last week vs. Kansas State. Another situation where game script aided that volume, because Baldwin had just 22 targets in the seven games prior. TCU is 21st in pass play success rate, but 123rd in explosiveness so they’re prone to giving up big plays, and Baldwin averages 17 YPC.
Best of the Rest – n/a. We have just four players projected to score double-digit fantasy points with nobody over 16. Realistically, this is a full-team fade barring we get news that someone is out.
Injury Notes – n/a.
Indiana vs. Michigan State
Point-Spread: MSU -10.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: MSU 29 – IU 18.5
Weather: 22 degrees / 0% rain / 20 mph winds
Indiana:
Situation where we’re going to have to monitor up until game time and will probably all be for naught with Indiana’s implied total of just 18.5 points. Head coach Tom Allen has not fully committed to a starting quarterback, though it would make some sense at this juncture to play the young guns. QB Dexter Williams ($5,500) struggled to throw the ball against Ohio State, completing just 6-of-19 passes, but still tossed two touchdowns and ran for 75 yards on six attempts. Williams has exciting physical traits. I’m slightly intrigued by freshman RB Jaylin Lucas ($3,700) who is averaging seven attempts per game over the last three weeks and Allen said he wants to get him move involved in the slot receiver role moving forward. I need to see that before believing. If D.J. Matthews ($5,000) is out again this week, Lucas seeing those slot reps does make some sense, though. Michigan State has completely revamped their defense in defending the tight end position, allowing just 5.6 FPPG this season. The Spartans were the worst in the country at defending opposing tight ends a year ago. AJ Barner ($3,800) found the end-zone vs. the Buckeyes last week with a team-high seven targets.
Michigan State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jayden Reed ($5,600) Five touchdowns in the last six games for Reed who is averaging 7.2 targets per game. Some slight concern with the weather with 20 mph winds expected, but the Hoosiers are 127th in pass play success rate and allow 23.2 FPPG to opposing WR1s for the year. I like him as a stand-alone play here.
Fade – Anyone beyond the Top 4. We have four Spartans projected at over 15 fantasy points this week. Next highest would be Daniel Barker at just eight fantasy points. Centralized production this year for the MSU offense.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – RB Jalen Berger ($5,700) Advanced stats like the Indiana rush defense far more than the high-level numbers. 21st in rush play success rate, but are 12th in the Big Ten in yards allowed per game on the ground and give up 19.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Despite playing in negative game scripts, we’ve seen Berger put up some decent numbers in recent weeks, averaging 14 attempts per with over 80 yards rushing in the last two games.
Best of the Rest – WR Keon Coleman ($5,500) Coleman trails Reed on a target-per-game basis but does lead the team for the year with 68 targets and six touchdowns. Prefer Reed as the top option, but Coleman has a very similar projection. QB Payton Thorne ($6,000) has scored 20+ fantasy points just three times this year and will be playing in 20+ mph winds. Zero chance I roster him, but faces an Indiana defense that is giving up 30.1 FPPG to opposing QBs in 2022.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas State vs. West Virginia
Point-Spread: KSU -7.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: KSU 31 – WVU 23.5
Weather: 33 degrees / 0% rain / 13 mph winds
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – RB Deuce Vaughn ($7,400) Monster projection this week for Deuce Vaughn, facing a West Virginia defense that is allowing 22.4 FPPG to RB1s on the year – ninth most in FBS. On a cold day like Saturday will be, expect Kansas State to keep the ball on the ground.
Fade – n/a. Anyone not listed here is a fade. Kansas State’s offensive production is very concentrated between just a few players.
Bargain Bin – RB DJ Giddens ($3,900) Maybe I’m late to the party but have we identified Vaughn’s successor for 2023 should he depart for the NFL? The 212-pound sophomore is now averaging 5.7 YPC for the year, coming off a seasons-best 58 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries in the blowout over Baylor.
Pivot Play – WRs Malik Knowles ($4,800). In games that Will Howard has started, Knowles is averaging 12.6 FPPG and seven targets. In games where Adrian Martinez started, those numbers drop to 4.1 targets and 11.7 FPPG. Clearly more productive with a better passer under center.
Best of the Rest – QB Will Howard ($6,400) Howard will get the start in place of the injured Adrian Martinez, and likely is QB1 moving forward. Nine passing touchdowns in each of the three games he’s played this season, completing over 64% of his throws. For as bad as the WVU rush defense is, they’re worse against the pass, ranking 99th in success rate and allowing 25.8 FPPG to opposing QB1s.
Injury Notes – n/a
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – QB Garrett Greene ($6,600) Not sure if it’s been officially announced or not, but expect Greene to start Saturday after leading the Mountaineers to the 23-20 comeback victory over Oklahoma last week. If you haven’t seen Greene play before, think a slightly less fast (poor English I know) version of John Rhys Plumlee. Greene became the third QB in WVU history with 100+ passing yards, 100+ rushing yards and three TDs in the same game.
Fade – RB Justin Johnson ($4,500) Some excellent analysis by the West Virginia 247 beat writer in projecting what he believes will be the Mountaineers game plan on Saturday:
“The Wildcats have played 10 games so far this season. In six of them, their defense has been dominant, allowing, on average, 6.8 points per game. Yes, less than a touchdown per game across six games. The other four? They’re allowing 41 points per game. So…. what’s happening in those other four games? Well, in three of them, the opposing team just smothered the Wildcats in runs. Heck, even in the loss to Tulane (when K-State lost, 17-10), the Green Wave rushed the ball 40 times. Oklahoma went 34 times for 220 yards. Texas Tech (28 points in a loss) rushed 34 times. TCU ran 56 times. Texas ran 40 times. Some of that is the nature of the game – team takes the lead, team starts running the ball to control the clock. This attitude of running, running, and running might be good for WVU, especially if Garrett Greene is starting at quarterback.”
Bargain Bin – RB Tony Mathis Jr. ($4,900) I thought Greene’s appearance would’ve opened up running lanes for Mathis last week, but the junior back averaged just 2.3 YPC against a bad Oklahoma defense. The more important number? 23 carries. If the Mountaineers take a run-based approach like the beat writer insinuates above, Mathis is in play at his pricing. KSU is allowing just 14.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, so not a gimme matchup by any stretch.
Pivot Play – WRs. Seems like running the ball will be the game plan, but Greene is not much of a downgrade from JT Daniels as a passer. And as the situation has been all year, this is a funnel with the top three receivers for WVU where Bryce Ford-Wheaton, Sam James and Kaden Prather combined for 27 of the 30 targets that went to Mountaineer pass-catchers.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – n/a
Houston vs. East Carolina
Point-Spread: ECU -5.5
O/U Total: 68.5
Implied Score: ECU 38 – Hou 31.5
Weather: 52 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Houston:
Top Play(s) – WR Nathaniel Dell ($8,200) ***Sirens…game stack alert. Houston starts and ends with Tank Dell who has been arguably the best WR in the entire country. Double digit targets in each of the last five games. 32% team target share. 11 touchdowns in the last seven weeks, scoring at least once in each game. WR1s are averaging 23.3 FPPG against East Carolina this season – 10th highest mark in country. If giving me the choice of Dell vs. Bijan, I’m taking the WR.
Fade – WR Kesean Carter ($4,000) Five drops in the last four games for Carter who should be out of the rotation now with Matthew Golden back in the lineup. The only scenario I see Carter being value is if this game shoots out Houston/SMU style which is unlikely.
Bargain Bin – RB Stacy Sneed ($3,800) 20+ fantasy points in each of the last three games as Houston’s lead back. Ta’Zhawn Henry was back in the lineup Saturday and Sneed continues to get the bulk of the work. ECU has been one of the better rush defenses in the country, though, ranking 17th in success rate, 24th overall in yards allowed on the ground and giving up just 13.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season. Sneed continues to make plays each week, finding the end-zone, and you’re not paying a hefty price at all.
Pivot Play – WR Sam Brown ($4,200) I know Matthew Golden is around for 2023 and would be our projected WR1 if pressed to choose, but Brown is making a case for that job with his late-season performance. Another productive day with 8-91-0 on 11 targets in the win over Temple. Averaging nine targets a game over the last five weeks. One of the best options at his pricing for the entire slate.
Best of the Rest – WR Matthew Golden ($5,200) Seems like the month off for Golden was a major boost as the 4-star freshman has found the end-zone in each of the last two games. Probably won’t see the ownership numbers he should with all the attention on Dell and Brown as priority plays. I think we could all agree that QB Clayton Tune ($8,100) is a better fantasy option than an actual quarterback at this stage in his career, but that’s perfectly fine for us. Because of Houston’s putrid defense, Tune is in a positive game script situation almost weekly, and the fantasy production has come with that, scoring 30+ points in each of the last five games. ECU is allowing 26.6 FPPG to opposing QBs this season with three AAC quarterbacks scoring 30+ fantasy points or more. This is a bad ECU secondary.
Injury Notes – n/a
East Carolina:
Top Play(s) – QB Holton Ahlers ($6,200) A QB with a 26-point projection, sitting at over 300 projected passing yards, facing a defense that ranks 123rd in the country, with a less than 100% running back behind him, AND a $6.2k salary. No other way around it…Ahlers is one of the best plays on the slate. Houston is allowing 36 FPPG which is, by far, the most in the country. Sure, Tanner Mordecai’s 80 fantasy points boosts those numbers, but Houston has allowed four quarterbacks this season to score 40 or more fantasy points in a game. Brutal.
Fade – RB Marlon Gunn Jr. ($3,500) Gunn was going to be the lock of the slate if Keaton Mitchell were out on Saturday after suffering an injury vs. Cincinnati but is expected to be back according to the ECU beat writer.
Bargain Bin – WR Jsi Hatfield ($3,500) By far the fourth option in the passing game for ECU, but 14 of his 16 targets have come in the last four weeks. One of the highest aDOT’s on the team at 14.0 and his speed can stretch the field vertically. Last resort type option, though.
Pivot Play – RB Keaton Mitchell ($7,100) The focus will be on the passing games for both sides, but the Houston defense is only marginally better at defending the run in 2022. 87th in success rate and allowing 18.7 FPPG to opposing RB1s. There was concern about Mitchell not being available for Saturday, but all signs point to him starting now.
Best of the Rest – WR Isaiah Winstead ($7,000) The former Toledo transfer continues to pace the Pirates with 29% of the target share with a team-high 72 receptions, but production has tailed off slightly the last few weeks. WR CJ Johnson ($6,200) is the low floor / high ceiling play, capable of 40 or 4 points. He was stretchered off the field last week vs. Cincinnati but is expected at 100% health for this weekend. If you game stack ECU, I would suggest Ahlers, Mitchell and just one receiver. Rarely, if at all, this season have Winstead and Johnson popped in the same game.
Injury Notes – We expect CJ Johnson and Keaton Mitchell to play Saturday but doesn’t hurt to do your due diligence to ensure that is the case.
Boston College vs. Notre Dame
Point-Spread: ND -20.5
O/U Total: 43.5
Implied Score: ND 32 – BC 11.5
Weather: 26 degrees / 19% rain / 17 mph winds
Boston College:
Top Play(s) – WR Zay Flowers ($6,900) Decisions to be made here. On one hand, Boston College has the lowest implied total on the slate in poor weather conditions on the road. On the other hand, Flowers has essentially been matchup proof in 2022, scoring double-digit fantasy points in every game but one this season. That one, unbelievably, was against bowl-bound Connecticut. 31% target share for the season, seeing double-digit targets in four of the last five games. Four wide receivers have scored 20+ fantasy points vs. the Irish this season.
Fade – RB Pat Garwo ($6,600) Not exaggerating when I say this is the easiest fade play of the entire college football season. The pricing is absurd for a running back on the worst rushing offense in all of FBS.
Bargain Bin – WR Joseph Griffin ($3,300) Maybe you won’t play him this week, but Griffin is a player to know down the line for BC in the years to come. The 6-foot-4 true freshman now has three touchdowns in the last two games, with 13 of his 18 receptions coming in the last four weeks.
Pivot Play – WR Jaelen Gill ($3,900) Targeted a season-high nine times last week vs. NC State. Like the rest of the BC receivers, Gill is the beneficiary of game script as the Eagles are weekly underdogs and cannot run the football…at all.
Best of the Rest – QB Emmett Morehead ($6,100) Morehead’s play over the last two weeks is why I was surprised to see BC’s implied total at just 11.5 this week. 330 passing yards in each of the last two games with a combined seven passing touchdowns. And because BC can’t run the ball, Morehead attempted 93 passes in that span. Just one QB all season has scored 25 fantasy points or more against ND this season. There is no shot we’re playing Morehead on Saturday – we just would need him to be competent in order to support the production of the BC receivers.
Injury Notes – HC Jeff Hafley mentioned this week that up to a dozen players have been hit with a high fever – the offensive line being the position group hit hardest. We’ll have to monitor up to game time to make sure Flowers or whoever else you planned on rostering from BC is healthy.
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – RB Audric Estime ($5,700) I heard Marcus Freeman’s postgame comments right after the win vs. Navy last week, saying that they reverted to the pass more than they’d like in the second half because of the Irish’s struggles to run the football. Strange because Notre Dame had been dominating the trenches in the matchups with Syracuse and Clemson leading up to last Saturday. Just an assumption here that we see Notre Dame get back to bully ball in sub 30-degree temps on Saturday.
Fade – QB Drew Pyne ($6,700) Going to really go out on a limb here and respectfully say that Pyne’s five touchdown performance last week vs. Navy will not be replicated this week or at any other point in his collegiate career. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 26 FPPG against BC this season, but that is far better than the 31.3 FPPG that Navy is allowing on the year. BC is at least capable in the secondary.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – RB Logan Diggs ($4,600) Should the above outlined scenario play out as anticipated with ND leaning on the run Saturday, don’t forget about Diggs who has scored double-digit fantasy points in three of the last four games and is averaging 19.5 attempts per in that span. BC has been above average this season in terms of defending the run, ranking 59th in rush play success rate and allowing just 12.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Best of the Rest – TE Michael Mayer ($6,400) Not much else to be said that we haven’t already with regards to Mayer. I’m not all that interested when he’s in the $6k range personally. Just one opposing tight end has scored more than 10 fantasy points against BC this season. WR Jayden Thomas ($4,100) has scored two touchdowns in the last three games. ND has featured more two tight end sets lately with Thomas and WR Braden Lenzy ($3,800) getting the majority of the playing time among the Notre Dame receivers.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas vs. Kansas
Point-Spread: Tex -9.5
O/U Total: 63.5
Implied Score: Tex 36.5 – KU 27
Weather: 37 degrees / 0% rain / 15 mph winds
Texas:
Top Play(s) – RB Bijan Robinson ($9,100) An angry/motivated Bijan, coming off his worst rushing performance of the season vs. TCU last week, facing a Kansas defense that is 115th in rush play success rate, 112th in rush play explosiveness allowed and giving up 19.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Don’t care about the price, sometimes you just make it work.
Fade – QB Quinn Ewers ($6,900) Maybe it was time a few weeks ago to admit it, but Quinn Ewers just isn’t a good quarterback right now. Poor accuracy, terrible footwork, struggling to read defenses and lackadaisical with the football. Numbers would suggest that Ewers should be in for a bounce back week, facing a Kansas secondary that is 115th in success rate and allowing 29.7 FPPG to opposing QBs. Yet, the Jayhawks are 22nd in explosiveness and play soft coverage in the secondary in attempt to limiting big plays. So, you’re telling me Kansas will force Ewers to read a defense and march the offense down the field?
Bargain Bin – TE Ja’Tavion Sanders ($4,500) Kansas is allowing 8.7 FPPG to opposing TE1s on the year, and Sanders plays damn near every offensive snap. Game script played a major role in this, but Sanders was targeted a season-high 12 times a week ago with seven receptions.
Pivot Play – WR Xavier Worthy ($6,500) I’ve gone down this path many times this season and come away disappointed each week that I’ve rostered Worthy. Don’t think work ethic needs to be questioned here, but another two drops last week for Worthy against TCU, converting on only 33% of his 12 targets. Something is just off. That said, the sophomore receiver projects well this week with an attainable price point. Worthy has been targeted 10 or more times in three of the last four games.
Best of the Rest – WR Jordan Whittington ($5,200) We spoke about how Kansas plays soft coverage in order to limit big plays. I would assume that could favor Whittington here where Kansas will allow everything underneath from Ewers to his slot receiver. Targeted a season-high 11 times last week. The trio of Whittington, Worthy and Sanders combined for 35 of the team’s 39 targets vs. TCU, so there isn’t anyone to consider beyond those three in the passing game.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – RB Devin Neal ($6,400) Listing Neal as Kansas’ top play but I don’t feel great about it despite the 20-point projection. The strength of the Texas defense is in the trenches where they’re 13th in success rate and allowing just 16.9 FPPG to opposing RB1s. That said, five different running backs have scored 20 or more fantasy points on the Longhorns this season, and Neal’s workload has done a 180 the last two games with a combined 56 attempts. Does that change at all if Daniels is back in the lineup?
Fade – WR Luke Grimm ($5,700) This isn’t a knock on Grimm, who does lead the Jayhawks in both receptions (36) and targets (51). But if you’re a $5.7k receiver that averages just 10.7 yards per catch with a 10.9 aDOT, there needs to be high target volume for me to have any interest. And Grimm averages just 5.6 targets per game. I’d take a shot elsewhere.
Bargain Bin – TE Mason Fairchild ($3,400) Tied a season-high with six targets vs. Texas Tech last week as the Jayhawks attempted to make a comeback and think we should see a similar game script this week with Kansas being a 9.5-point dog. In fact, Fairchild’s best performances this season have been when Kansas is losing – 3-80-1 vs. TCU, 6-106-2 vs. Oklahoma and then 5-49-0 last week.
Pivot Play – Starting QB. Who that is, we do not know. For now, the CFF Site has Jason Bean ($6,800) projected at 26.5 fantasy points at 6.8k. Reading some of the tea leaves, I think we see Jalon Daniels ($7,500) start on Saturday which could change the dynamic of this offense. Is it possible we see two quarterbacks with their differing styles of play or Daniels not at 100% full bill of health? Lot of factors, but the Kansas QB is going to project well this week, regardless of who it is.
Best of the Rest – WR Lawrence Arnold ($5,400) Cheaper than his counterpart Luke Grimm, and more productive, averaging 16.8 FPPG with three receiving touchdowns over the last month. WR3 Quentin Skinner (4,500) played just 48% of the offensive snaps vs. Texas Tech after suffering an injury the week prior against Oklahoma State but was targeted four times and found the end-zone. Leads the team with a 16.8 aDOT as the top big-play threat for the Jayhawks.
Injury Notes – Stay tuned to the QB situation.
NC State vs. Louisville
Point-Spread: UL -3.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: UL 24.5 – NC St 21
Weather: 38 degrees / 0% rain / 12 mph winds
NC State:
I apologize from veering away from our typical DFS format for many of these teams, but this really is one of the worst slates of the season from a fantasy perspective, and some of these teams aren’t worth diving into. There is serious message board chatter that QB MJ Morris ($5,700) is out this week, meaning NC State will be down to their third-string quarterback and I’m not sure who that would be between Jack Chambers ($5,400) or Ben Finley ($4,500). At running back, Demie Sumo ($4,100) clearly isn’t healthy after playing just two snaps last week. 4-star FR Michael Allen ($3,600) saw some extended run against Boston College, rushing for 77 yards on 14 carries. Trouble here is NC State has one of the worst run blocking O-Lines in the ACC, facing a Louisville defense that is 39th in rush play success rate. NC State receivers are only viable if MJ Morris somehow plays. We all saw Jack Chambers throw a football a few weeks back.
Louisville:
I didn’t ever think I’d say this about a Malik Cunningham-led roster, but Louisville is actually a better football team in 2022 than they are a fantasy option. The Cardinals have injuries of their own with the aforementioned QB Malik Cunningham ($7,300) deemed questionable and we don’t even have him in the projections as of now, believing that it will be Brock Domann ($5,900) getting the nod. We’ve actually seen Domann do some nice things this year in relief of Cunningham, including throwing for 175 yards and a score last week against Clemson. I can’t view myself rostering him this week on a main slate against NC State, but look at the list of the three quarterbacks that have scored 30 fantasy points on the Wolfpack this season – Emmett Moorhead, D.J. Uiagalelei and Grant Wells.
If I were interested in a piece of the Louisville passing game, it would be WR1 Tyler Hudson ($6,800). 31% target share for the Cardinals and back-to-back 20+ point fantasy performances where Hudson was targeted a combined 22 times. Doesn’t matter who is at quarterback for Louisville, Hudson continues to show out. Game script should work in the favor here of RB Tiyon Evans ($5,200) if NC State is without several starters on the offensive side of the ball. Unfortunately the Tennessee transfer was relegated to just seven carries last week after leaving the contest due to injury. RB Jahwar Jordan ($3,500) would enter the picture if Evans were to miss the game.
Georgia vs. Kentucky
Point-Spread: UGA -22.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: UGA 36 – UK 13.5
Weather: 37 degrees / 0% rain / 19 mph winds
Georgia:
New week, same situation. QB Stetson Bennett ($8,800) is overpriced and a GPP play only. Four different running backs will see between 5-10 carries. WR Ladd McConkey ($6,500) and TE Brock Bowers ($6,600) will give you eight fantasy points if you insert them into your DFS lineup and 38 points if you fade them. There’s no point in doing deep-dive analysis on this offense.
Kentucky:
It’s basketball season in Lexington. Even Ashley Judd won’t watch this ensuing beat down by the reigning national champs.
Miami vs. Clemson
Point-Spread: Clem -19.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: Clem 33.5 – Mia 14
Weather: 54 degrees / 0% rain / 13 mph winds
Miami:
To quote friend of the site, Eric Froton, using one of his many favorite phrases, Miami is going to get taken to “pound town” on Saturday. HC Mario Cristobal is sounding off in the media about player’s parents whining about their son’s playing time. Sounds like we could see two quarterbacks potentially. If it’s just one quarterback, I’m not starting a true freshman in Jacurri Brown ($4,500) on the road at Clemson in what would be just his second career start. The backfield is riddled with injuries and the Tigers allow just 11.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s. No thanks. And the wide receiver room has been a trouble spot all season long, devoid of talent.
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – RB Will Shipley ($6,500) For the season, Miami’s defense stacks up well vs. the run, ranking 36th in success rate and fifth overall in the ACC. Last four weeks, the group has fallen off a tad, allowing three of the last four teams to average well over four yards a carry. Will Shipley needs 101 yards to post the 23rd 1,000-yard rushing season in school history. He also needs two touchdowns to move into the Top 10 in Clemson history for rushing TDs in a season. My guess is he gets at least one, if not both, on Saturday.
Fade – WR Beaux Collins ($5,400) Collins missed last week’s contest with a shoulder injury but was back at practice and should play on Saturday. My rule of thumb with not rostering players in their first game back applies here, particularly a player like Collins who is tied for the team lead with three drops and a 57.1% conversion rate.
Bargain Bin – RB Phil Mafah ($4,200) Assuming Clemson blows out Miami like they should on Saturday, expect double-digit carries from Mafah, as he’s done two of the last three games. Would love to see what the sophomore running back could do with more carries, averaging 5.3 YPC for the year, but is stuck behind Shipley on the depth chart.
Pivot Play – WR Antonio Williams ($5,200) Williams now ranks first on the team in nearly every receiving category aside from touchdowns. Had his breakout game last week vs. Louisville with a season-high 10 receptions on 11 targets for 85 yards and a TD. Miami has allowed some huge fantasy performances to mediocre WRs this season – DJ England Chisolm (30.9 fantasy points) / Nate McCollum (24.9 fantasy points) – so I’ll be interested to see what a 5-star looks like against this secondary.
Best of the Rest – QB D.J. Uiagalelei ($7,000) Conventional wisdom suggests Clemson would mash their way to victory with a dominant rushing performance that is trending upwards the last three weeks. But this is a very average Miami secondary that is prone to giving up big plays through the air, ranked 126th in explosiveness and 86th in passes of 25 yards or more allowed. The Hurricanes are allowing 25.7 FPPG to opposing QBs with five different quarterbacks scoring 24 fantasy points or more. DJU should have very low ownership on Saturday.
Injury Notes – n/a
Ohio State vs. Maryland
Point-Spread: OSU -27.5
O/U Total: 63.5
Implied Score: OSU 45.5 – MD 18
Weather: 41 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – Ohio State Passing Stack. How many countless times does this happen on a DFS slate? We’re all so focused on the Ohio State running back situation and who is going to play that we forget about the obvious. The Buckeyes are using this game as prep for Michigan so expect them to turn up the intensity this week. CJ Stroud is still very much in the Heisman conversation, and this is a great opportunity to bolster those stats. HC Ryan Day said he’d be shocked if at least two of the three RBs were not available for Saturday so we could see a RBBC. Stacking the Ohio State passing game with some cheap RBs and S-Flex will be the route I take in quite a few lineups.
Fade – Top two RBs. Regardless of who is available, I highly doubt we see a full workload from Miyan Williams or TreVeyon Henderson should they play Saturday. Maybe some reps as a tune up for The Game but that’s it. RB is the position to spend down on this week (Bijan aside).
Bargain Bin – RB Dallan Hayden ($3,700) On that note, Hayden might see the highest ownership on the slate at his pricing if we get word that both Miyan and TreVeyon are out. Rushed for 102 yards on 19 carries last week vs. Indiana and will faced a Maryland rush defense that has allowed over 200+ yards on the ground in each of the last three games.
Pivot Play – RB TreVeyon Henderson ($6,300) Between Henderson and Williams, I personally believe the former has a better shot at playing Saturday (still very much TBD). And if he’s getting 15 carries against this defense at $6.3k, a 20-25-point performance is well within his range. Unless we get firm word that Henderson is full-go and Williams is out, I can see Henderson having very low ownership.
Best of the Rest – OSU Pass Catchers. We’ve given our thoughts on the Ohio State passing stack being a contrarian play for Saturday. I’d suggest CJ Stroud with probably just two pass-catchers but have seen Stroud paired with three atop a GPP leaderboard as well. That puts the top three WRs in play, but also TE Cade Stover ($4,900). Five tight ends have scored double digit fantasy points vs. Maryland this season. This strategy is a risk, but we’ll see most DFS players focus on the RB situation here, and OSU passing stacks have won GPPs multiple times the last few years.
Injury Notes – Ohio State RBs and their status for Saturday might hold the key to the slate.
Maryland:
Shocked to see that Maryland’s implied total of 18 points here. I’d have set it at 13.5 with the way the Terps have played lately. I hinted at this in the Michigan writeup. This is a ramp-up game for Ohio State with THE Game next week. Remember back to last year, Ohio State faced Michigan State in an important Week 12 matchup and routed the Spartans 59-7. This won’t be a lookahead spot for the Buckeyes. Full-team fade.
Penn State vs. Rutgers
Point-Spread: PSU -19.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: PSU 32 – Rut 12.5
Weather: 38 degrees / 0% rain / 11 mph winds
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – n/a. Penn State could score five touchdowns here from five different places, and we don’t have a player projected at over 20 fantasy points this week so there really isn’t a must-have. Rutgers will put nine guys in the box to attempt to bottle up the running game, and I’m not a huge fan of playing the guessing game of which RB between Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton will pop off in that given week. Rutgers is allowing 19.9 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season and are 68th in rush play success rate, so the Nittany Lions should have success on the ground Saturday.
Fade – QB Sean Clifford ($7,100) Penn State’s running game has hit its stride. The defense is playing exceptional football, facing a team with one of the lowest implied totals on the slate. Clifford’s WR1 might be out. And Rutgers has not scored double-digit points against Penn State since 2014. This one could be over by half time, meaning we might get more glimpses of backup Drew Allar. Rutgers is also 38th in pass play success rate and allowing just 19.0 FPPG to opposing QBs. So if this game is close or a blowout, I don’t see a scenario in which we’re interested in Clifford.
Bargain Bin – WR Liam Clifford ($3,200) This play hinges on Parker Washington’s status for Saturday. Clifford would start in the slot should Washington sit and does have four targets in the last two games.
Pivot Play – WR Mitchell Tinsley ($6,100) If, if Parker Washington is unavailable, my interest in Tinsley does grow given he’s second on the team in receptions (39), targets (6) and touchdowns (4). With the way Penn State’s rushing attack has been rolling the last few weeks, there should be some opportunities over the top as Rutgers defenders creep in.
Best of the Rest – Tight ends. Rutgers has struggled to defend tight ends this season, allowing 8.6 FPPG to opposing TE1 and allowing four different players to hit double-digit fantasy points. The tight end duo of Theo Johnson ($3,600) and Brenton Strange ($4,800) have combined for 32 targets and three touchdowns in the last month.
Injury Notes – WR Parker Washington ($6,300) Not sure what’s up here, but Washington was missing from practice as of Wednesday night. Stay tuned Friday/Saturday for any updates as it does sound like he’s questionable.
Rutgers:
I know QB Gavin Wimsatt ($5,300) had a career day last week vs. Michigan State, but there’s an enormous difference playing the Spartans secondary vs. the Penn State secondary. The Nittany Lions are allowing just 15.6 FPPG to opposing QBs, are 20th in pass play success rate and 33rd in limiting explosiveness through the air. Our mild interest is with RB Kyle Monangai ($4,900) who rushed for a season-high 162 yards on 24 attempts in the loss to Michigan State. I do have some concerns that the running game wouldn’t be as effective this week if Wimsatt struggles, and the Penn State rush defense has been lights out in the last two weeks, limiting both Indiana and Maryland to under two yards a carry. Those are two of the worst rush offenses in the country, though, so that also needs to be taken into consideration. I’m less interested in the Rutgers receivers, but former West Virginia transfer Sean Ryan ($4,500) does have 18 targets in the last two games alone. FWIW – Penn State is expected to be without top cornerback Joey Porter Jr. due to injury.