Tennessee vs. South Carolina
Point-Spread: Tenn -21.5
O/U Total: 65.5
Implied Score: Tenn 43.5 – SC 22
Weather: 47 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – Tennessee Tandem. Separately, paired together, doesn’t matter. You want a piece of either QB Hendon Hooker ($8,200) or Jalin Hyatt ($7,400) in your lineup, and preferably both if you can make it happen. Hyatt has been very vocal this week with the media, stating he has extra motivation for South Carolina not recruiting him. Hooker is simply underpriced for a QB projected at over 30 fantasy points this week.
Fade – RB Jabari Small ($5,800) We’ll cover Small here because he does not have the injury tag on DK. But after suffering a shoulder injury a few weeks back against Georgia, Small is being described as a “game to game” situation by his position coach. Aka…he’s not 100% despite playing the entire game vs. Missouri. Sounds like one good pop and Small could reaggravate the injury.
Bargain Bin – TE Princeton Fant ($4,300) If we expect Tennessee to light up the scoreboard, and we do, then Princeton Fant is an option as arguably the team’s best red-zone threat. Between week’s 7-9, Fant had four rushing touchdowns in a three-game span. Against Missouri, two receiving touchdowns on as many targets.
Pivot Play – RB Jaylen Wright ($4,700) If this game plays out similarly to Tennessee’s last matchup with Missouri, Wright should get extended run in a blowout scenario and to limit the punishment on Small. The sophomore back had a big day last week with 51 yards and two scores, leading the Vols in rushing attempts (11). South Carolina is 13th of 14 teams in the SEC in yards allowed per game on the ground and 119th in rush play success rate. Tennessee should be able to do whatever it wants offensively.
Best of the Rest – WR Bru McCoy ($6,500) Cedric Tillman didn’t look 100% against Georgia, hence him sitting out last week. As a result, McCoy has now been targeted 23 times in the last two games alone. If we get word Tillman is out or limited, our interest in McCoy is enhanced. WR Ramel Keyton ($4,700) is a talented player that enters the mix ONLY if Tillman is out. Just four targets vs. Missouri but caught a TD.
Injury Notes – WR Cedric Tillman ($6,200) Let’s play another game of Tennessee beat writers not doing their job. At least this week, we know that they’ll be on the lookout for news so we should know whether Tillman is available or not. Per 247, “On Monday, Heupel said the Vols expected Tillman “(will) have the ability to play in this one,” but added the team would evaluate it as the week went, so we’ll consider him questionable, though the expectation is he will be available, based on what we’ve heard this week.” This is a “rivalry” game of sorts and an important one for Tennessee being in the thick of the CFP race, but as 21.5-point favorites, how much will the Vols “need” Tillman on Saturday?
South Carolina:
Top Play(s) – WR Dakereon Joyner ($3,200) South Carolina cannot win this game straight up and will likely pull out some trick plays or unexpected lineup combinations. One that we should expect to see is Joyner at quarterback as he’s taken nine snaps there the last two weeks. That was in addition to his 48-yard touchdown reception against Florida last Saturday. Don’t forget the Joyner started the bowl game against UNC last season, compiling over 210 yards of total offense. I think most will be focused on Jaheim Bell this week (more on that below) so this could be an interesting pivot.
Fade – QB Spencer Rattler ($4,700) Saw a comment from someone in the media covering college football say that the only way Spencer Rattler would get drafted is if there was World War III. Harsh, but true.
Bargain Bin – WR Jaheim Bell ($3,900) Bell will get the bulk of the carries again on Saturday with South Carolina suffering a rash of injuries at the RB position. A $3.9k running back listed as a wide receiver on DraftKings is very valuable. The trouble is…South Carolina cannot run the football and Tennessee is a top 10 run defense. Bell has averaged just three yards per attempt. I can see this being a very popular play that winds up crashing and burning.
Pivot Play – WR Antwane Wells ($4,800) South Carolina receivers have combined for just eight receiving touchdowns this season. That’s seven fewer than Jalin Hyatt alone. Half of the eight do belong to Antwane Wells who leads the team with 43 receptions and 22% of the target share.
Best of the Rest – n/a.
Injury Notes – RB Marshawn Lloyd ($5,600) and Christian Beal-Smith ($4,100) were both ruled out this week.
Texas Tech vs. Iowa State
Point-Spread: Iowa St -3.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: Iowa St 25.5 – Tx Tech 22
Weather: 20 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Texas Tech:
Full-team fade. We have just one player projected at over 10 fantasy points. 50-50 split backfield against a defense that allows just 11.7 FPPG to opposing running backs. No receiver has more than 13% target share, so the ball is being spread around all over. QB Tyler Shough ($5,900) played reasonably well in his return to the field last week with over 300 yards of total offense and a pair of touchdowns. Pricing keeps him in the player pool, but Iowa State is allowing just 16 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season. Don’t see Tech having much success against the best defense in the Big 12 in sub 20-degree temps.
Iowa State:
Top Play(s) – WR Xavier Hutchinson ($8,000) 20 points is essentially a lock for the nation’s leader in receptions (94) and targets (142). We need 30 out of Hutchinson to pay off his salary in this slate. Texas Tech has allowed just one receiver all season to hit 20 fantasy points, allowing just 16.1 FPPG to opposing WR1s for the year. The Red Raiders can get beat over the top for explosive plays but are 16th nationally in pass play success rate with tall, rangy starting corners standing 6-foot-3 each.
Fade – QB Hunter Dekkers ($5,400) The only positive thing to say about Hunter Dekkers this year from a fantasy perspective is that he racks up the garbage yards because Iowa State is constantly trailing and can’t run the football whatsoever. Dekkers’ 13 interceptions is second most in the country behind Rice’s T.J. McMahon, and has the third lowest QB rating in the Big 12.
Bargain Bin – WR Dimitri Stanley ($3,700) Playing time has steadily increased all year for the former Colorado transfer. Take out Week 1, and Stanley is averaging 5.6 targets per game with 22 in the last three weeks alone.
Pivot Play – RB Cartevious Norton ($4,600) Shame on me for suggesting we play Norton. Despite the favorable matchup against one of the worst defenses in the country, the 4-star freshman averaged just 2.9 YPC on 17 attempts. It totally escaped my mind that I forgot Iowa State has one of the worst offensive lines in the country, ranking 83rd in stuff rate, 103rd in line yards and 122nd in rush play success rate. On an extremely cold night, I’d suspect Iowa State to still attempt to run the ball, probably more than normal, so Norton could pay off his salary, but I don’t trust it.
Best of the Rest – WR Jaylin Noel ($5,000) Second on the team in routes run, targets (69), receptions (49) and touchdowns (3). Needs high volume of targets to be valuable, though, with a 9.9 yards per catch average and aDOT of 6.0. Everything is close to the LOS.
Injury Notes – n/a
Mississippi vs. Arkansas
Point-Spread: Miss -2.5
O/U Total: 64.5
Implied Score: Miss 33.5 – Ark 31
Weather: 34 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Mississippi:
Top Play(s) – RB Quinshon Judkins ($7,000) Admittedly do not have a great read at all on this game. Both Ole Miss and Arkansas coming off disappointing losses a week ago. Neither have a ton to play with the SEC Championship matchup already decided. And SEC teams proved last week they can’t handle the cold weather. 18 degrees tonight. Sounds like a matchup where both teams lean on their running games. Arkansas is 102nd in rush play success rate defensively and allowing 20.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Fade – WR Jordan Watkins ($4,300) Production has fallen off a cliff for Watkins with zero receptions on just four targets in the last two games as he’s essentially splitting snaps in the slot with Dayton Wade ($3,700). Wade has been the preferred option of the two with seven receptions on 11 targets in that same span, with more routes run/snaps.
Bargain Bin – See above on Dayton Wade.
Pivot Play – QB Jaxson Dart ($6,300) This feels like a run heavy day for the Ole Miss offense with the weather, particularly if Evans is a good to. Would be bad for the quarterback normally, but not for Dart who averages 9.6 carries per game. Our fantasy point projection feels a bit low at just 17 fantasy points this week. Arkansas is allowing 25.1 FPPG this season to opposing QB1s, including 30+ to both Jaren Hall and Johnathan Bennett. Dart at $6.3k just feels a bit underpriced, making him a solid QB2 option here.
Best of the Rest – WR Jonathan Mingo ($6,300) and WR Malik Heath ($6,400) A combined 13 receptions on 19 targets last week vs. Alabama. Here’s why I think these two can be options. Arkansas is tied for last in the SEC with Vanderbilt, having allowed 31 passes of 25 yards or more this season. 122nd in pass play explosiveness defensively. Mingo’s (16.1) and Heath’s (13.6) aDOT are intriguing in this scenario.
Injury Notes – RB Zach Evans ($5,700) Evans played just 14 snaps last week vs. Alabama. Does Evans get the eight rushing attempts he had vs. Texas A&M or the 21 carries like he had against Auburn the game prior is anyone’s guess at this point. Can’t risk playing him.
Arkansas:
Our interest in Arkansas tonight is all pending on the news we get, if any, on QB KJ Jefferson’s ($7,200) status tonight. Beat writers suggest that Jefferson has practiced all week. When healthy, and with the Arkansas running game struggling to find its footing of late, Jefferson is the top play here, averaging just under 29 fantasy points in 2022. Ole Miss is allowing 26.3 FPPG to opposing QBs and 67th in pass play success rate. RB Raheim Sanders ($6,800) is a longshot GPP option as the Arkansas running game is struggling mightily lately, averaging under four yards a carry each of the last two games. Ole Miss run defense is trending upwards with back-to-back strong performances, including limiting Alabama to just 108 yards on 36 carries. WR Matt Landers ($5,200) and WR Jadon Haselwood ($5,500) are dependent on Jefferson playing because we all saw how ugly it got a week ago. Combine for 45% of the team target share.
Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma
Point-Spread: OU -7.5
O/U Total: 66.5
Implied Score: OU 37 – Ok St 29.5
Weather: 39 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Oklahoma State:
Top Play(s) – QB Spencer Sanders ($7,500) As of now, it is expected that Spencer Sanders will start on Saturday in what is likely his last time playing in the annual Bedlam matchup. Fact of the matter, though, is that Sanders is still not 100% and one clean hit could knock him out for the game. On the flip side, Sanders wasn’t 100% against TCU or Texas earlier in the year and he still managed 30+ fantasy points. Five Big 12 quarterbacks have scored 37 or more fantasy points against this Oklahoma defense in 2022.
Fade – WR Braydon Johnson ($6,300) Johnson played 30 offensive snaps last week and didn’t record a single target. He’s the fourth option at best in the Oklahoma State passing game.
Bargain Bin – WR Jaden Bray ($3,200) In his first game action since Week 6, and just the second game played all year, Bray played 44% of the offensive snaps vs. Iowa State, targeted four times. Bray and Braydon Johnson essentially split reps, but it’s quite obvious who the better player is of the two. Bray’s 20.2 aDOT in two games in intriguing with his big play ability.
Pivot Play – WR Bryson Green ($5,800) It was a quiet game for Green last week against Iowa State with 2-13-0 on four targets. That said, it was the first time in quite a while that Oklahoma State had its full complement of receivers available, yet Green was still the player that saw the most snaps of anyone, on the field 66% of the time. Of the Oklahoma State WRs, Green is the most trustworthy for production.
Best of the Rest – RB Dominic Richardson ($5,500) Very indecisive here on how to attack Dominic Richardson this week. Here’s the downside. Like Sanders, Richardson also is less than 100% and runs behind an offensive line that is 82nd in stuff rate, 112th in line yards and 114th in rush play success rate. The upside? Oklahoma is the worst rush defense statistically in the Big 12. If the starting lineup remains intact, meaning Richardson and Sanders play the entirety of the game, I think it’s plausible we see their production mirror what they did earlier in the year.
Injury Notes – n/a. Everyone of note is expected to play, just a matter of how much they can.
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – RB Eric Gray ($7,400) Gray is as close to a lock as it gets for the slate, coming off a career best 211 yards on 25 carries last week in the lost to West Virginia. That’s now four straight 100-yard performances heading into a matchup against a defense that is allowing the second most FPPG in the entire country to opposing RB1s.
Fade – WR Theo Wease ($5,700) I cannot believe DraftKings finally did it. Wease is actually priced less than $6k. Amazing. Still the easiest fade of fades as Wease played all of 15 snaps last week vs. West Virginia. He’s the fifth option in the passing game.
Bargain Bin – TE Brayden Willis ($4,300) Willis was goose-egged last Saturday but remains third among OU skill position players in offensive snaps and routes run. First on the team in touchdowns (5), and third in targets (39). Oklahoma State is allowing 6.1 FPPG to opposing tight ends.
Pivot Play – QB Dillon Gabriel ($7,600) and Marvin Mims ($7,200) I’ve lost track how much money this duo has cost me this year in believing they would smash the slate. It’s not a good sign to me when the best thing your OC can say about you is that you’re doing a good job of not turning the ball over (re Gabriel). The senior QB had a terrible overthrow last Saturday, and Mims had one of the ugliest drops you’ll see. The numbers are the numbers, though. Oklahoma State is allowing 31.6 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. WR1s are averaging 25.0 FPPG against this Cowboys’ secondary – fifth most in the nation. If I’m playing either of them, it will be as a stack, or not at all.
Best of the Rest – n/a.
Injury Notes – n/a
USC vs. UCLA
Point-Spread: USC -2.5
O/U Total: 76.5
Implied Score: USC 39.5 – UCLA 37
Weather: 62 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
USC:
Top Play(s) – QB Caleb Williams ($9,000) We’ll cover off more on the additional parts of the USC offense below, but simply put, Williams is the only trustworthy option for the Trojans on Saturday. Travis Dye’s injury gives some uncertainty as to just how the backfield volume distribution will be sorted out. And the return of two star receivers back in the lineup causes even more headaches. Give me the guy who we know will have the ball in his hands that has scored 30+ fantasy points in each of the last four games. No need to pair him with anyone either.
Fade – WRs. Against Colorado, 11 different USC players split up 33 targets. That tends to happen in blowout situations but makes it incredibly difficult on us to interpret any tendencies or uncover how this Saturday will shake out. And if HC Lincoln Riley is being truthful, USC will have the entire WR corps available on Saturday, meaning Mario Williams is back in the lineup, and it seems like Jordan Addison is at 100%. In the last full game where Addison and Williams were on the field together in Week 7 vs. Utah, the duo combined for 251 receiving yards and 11 receptions on 17 targets to lead the team.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – RB Austin Jones ($5,400) The Bruins have been gashed in recent weeks by opposing RB1s, allowing 40+ fantasy points to Xazavian Valladay, and then 32 fantasy points this past week to Arizona’s Michael Wiley. Common theme with both players is that they were both heavily utilized in the passing game vs. UCLA in their individual matchups, combining for 15 receptions. Not the biggest fan of Austin Jones the running back, but we know he’s an exceptional threat out of the backfield, as he was during his time at Stanford. I think this could also put Raleek Brown ($5,000) in play who caught two passes for 38 yards and a score last Saturday. Riley made it know this week that Jones is the starter in place of the injury Travis Dye, but we could see more rotation than we did previously.
Best of the Rest – WR Tahj Washington ($5,700) Addison and Williams get the headlines, but Washington has been exceptional the last month with 20 receptions and four touchdowns in the last four games. The problem is he was very, very quiet from a production standpoint until the injuries started occurring. One interesting note from USC’s 247 beat writer – Washington has now surpassed Addison with 16 targets when Caleb Williams is under pressure. Tough to see Washington being kicked to the curb the way he’s played the last few games.
Injury Notes – See above on WRs.
UCLA:
Top Play(s) – RB Zach Charbonnet ($8,000) Just a massive advantage here on paper for UCLA and Charbonnet against this USC front. The Trojans are 123rd in rush play success rate, 105th in rushes allowed of 20 yards or more, and giving up 19.7 FPPG to opposing RB1s in 2022. Tough to see any downside here or argument against not having Charbonnet in your lineup. He’s even added a receiving element to his game in recent weeks, targets 20 times in the last three games.
Fade – Anyone beyond the top three. We don’t have a single UCLA player projected at more than six fantasy points this week outside of UCLA’s big three.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson ($8,800) Everyone will be on Charbonnet this week. I’d debate the best pivot play that will be significantly less owned than even playing DTR naked is to have both in a lineup together. And why not? The duo has had a hand in 40 of UCLA’s 51 offensive touchdowns scored this season. Thompson-Robinson is running the football more as the season has gone along, now averaging 10 carries per game in Week 5 and beyond. USC is 92nd in pass play success rate and allowing just 23.2 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season, so they are better at defending the pass. But we’ve seen Cam Rising (59 fantasy points), Jayden de Laura (46 fantasy points) and Jack Plummer (37 fantasy points) all have massive days against this defense.
Best of the Rest – WR Jake Bobo ($6,700) Bobo has 43 catches on 60 targets this season, 20% of the team’s target share, and is averaging 15.1 yards per reception. 40 of the 43 catches have resulted in either a first down or a touchdown.
Injury Notes – n/a
Syracuse vs. Wake Forest
Point-Spread: WF -9.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: WF 34 – Syra 24.5
Weather: 41 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Syracuse:
Zero confidence that Syracuse can rally the troops on the road this week after getting blasted at home vs. Florida State last Saturday, now having lost four straight. That’s on Dino Babers for this nosedive after starting out the season 6-0. After averaging 188.5 rushing yards in the first six games, Syracuse has averaged just 76.3 yards on the ground during the losing streak. That’s due in part to the absence of QB Garrett Shrader ($5,100), but his return last week didn’t help matters against the Noles. A positive for the Orange is that Shrader said this week that he feels much healthier. Still not sure I can trust him even at such a low cost. That said, running quarterbacks have given Wake Forest all sorts of troubles this season, and have allowed the fifth most FPPG (31.9) to opposing QB1s in the country this year. RB Sean Tucker ($6,200) and WR Oronde Gadsden ($5,900) have been minimalized without Shrader in the lineup. They’re the only other Syracuse players projected to score more than four fantasy points this week. I think Syracuse bounces back some after last week’s debacle, but I can’t trust this team from a fantasy standpoint, even against a bad defense.
Wake Forest:
Wake Forest has been on the main or night slate every single week this season, so I think we all know what to expect at this point. You’ll choose the incorrect wide receiver to roster because the Deacs spread it around to five different options. Last week it was Donavon Greene ($5,500) who posted 85 yards and two scores on seven targets. Greene hadn’t found the end-zone in the four games prior to that. Tough to trust the Wake Forest running game that splits the carries 55-45 between Justice Ellison ($5,400) and Christian Turner ($5,000). The Syracuse run defense appears to have quit this season, giving up over 200 rushing yards in three of the last four games. And then there’s Sam Hartman ($8,000) at his lowest salary since Week 4. I like the storyline here of Hartman going out on a high note on senior day after confirming that he will not be using his extra year of eligibility to try his luck with the NFL next season. Advanced stats love the Syracuse secondary which ranks 25th in success rate and 10th in explosiveness allowed, giving up just 16.6 FPPG to opposing QB1s. Jordan Travis sliced and diced this defense last week, though, to the tune of 40.0 fantasy points. Just two QBs have scored more than 15 fantasy points in a game this season vs. the Orange.
UAB vs. LSU
Point-Spread: LSU -14.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: LSU 32.5 – UAB 18
Weather: 28 degrees / 0% rain / 21 mph winds
UAB:
Only deliberation here is whether or not to consider RB DeWayne McBride ($7,700) here as a potential option. Our projection does call for McBride to hit or come close to the 100-yard mark, and I did think it was interesting that the sports books set his rushing line at around 100 yards this week as well. I do think it’s possible McBride can hit that mark, considering he’s done just that EVERY SINGLE GAME this season already. But you simply cannot spend $7.7k on this slate to find out.
LSU:
Sounds like LSU will attempt to treat this as a get-right game for the passing offense that floundered vs. Arkansas last week. We’ll see if the Tigers are able to do that in 21 mph winds and 28-degree weather. LSU could score five touchdowns here from five different players, but the salaries are a bit too high for me to have a ton of interest in anyone on that side. And UAB is no pushover here defensively. RB Josh Williams ($5,100) has not given away the RB1 job to my surprise and has scored double digit fantasy points in five straight games now. He’d get the nod for me if wanting to choose an LSU option.
Colorado vs. Washington
Point-Spread: UW -30.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: UW 46.5 – Col 16
Weather: 40 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Colorado:
Like Nebraska in our main slate writeup, I’d much rather talk about the coaching candidates for the Colorado job, with it looking like Bronco Mendenhall, Deion Sanders and Tom Herman being at the top of the leaderboard. Those first two options would be sensational hires. As for on the field, RB Alex Fontenot ($4,400) is the only player of consideration after rushing for 104 yards on 20 attempts last week vs. USC. The Huskies are a middle of the road rush defense, allowing 16.4 FPPG and 87th in success rate so it’s possible for Fontenot to reach value here if he gets the full workload again. And that is TBD. Colorado beat writers said Deion Smith ($3,900) would play last week, and he didn’t see a single snap.
Washington:
Top Play(s) – QB Michael Penix Jr. ($7,900) What’s the hangover status look like for Penix Jr. and the Huskies coming off one of the biggest victories in program history vs. Oregon last Saturday? As we saw some last week, Colorado still has some fight to them, giving USC fits in the first quarter. With the QB options on the slate, both expensive and cheap, I can see myself fading Penix Jr. here, though a $7.9k quarterback projected at 350 passing yards and three touchdowns would normally be an auto-play. Weather looks good and Colorado is allowing 30.7 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season.
Fade – n/a. Highest implied team total on the slate. Everyone reasonably priced. They’re all in play. I just might not go overboard here with Washington players because hangovers are a real thing and maybe the Huskies are a bit sleepy coming into this matchup.
Bargain Bin – TE Jack Westover ($3,300) Bad teams have bad defensive numbers, so not a surprise that Colorado has given up a lot of fantasy points to every position group. That holds true with opposing tight ends, averaging 9.2 FPPG against the Buffs in 2022. Westover has accounted for two or more receptions for seven straight games.
Pivot Play – RB Cameron Davis ($5,100) 50-50 split at the running back position from a carry distribution standpoint between Davis and RB Wayne Taulapapa ($6,000), but we’re seeing a little separation in the passing game where the former now has 10 receptions on 12 targets. Davis’ involvement in the passing game leads to him being on the field more. We did see Taulapapa vulture away two touchdowns from Davis two weeks ago against Oregon State but would put that in the outlier column. 33% of Davis’ carries this season have come inside the red zone, compared to just 20% for Taulapapa. Of note, Colorado has given up the most fantasy points to opposing running backs in the country this season.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Everyone reading this knows the Washington WR situation as this point. 1A, 1B and 1C situation between Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan and Ja’Lynn Polk where anyone can pop off in a given week. This is not a scenario to stack the Washington passing game fully, so I’d probably lean towards just one WR in a lineup here.
Injury Notes – n/a
