Washington State vs. Fresno State
Point-Spread: Fres St -3.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: Fres St 29 – Wazzu 25.5
Weather: Dome
Washington State:
Top Play(s) – RB Nakia Watson ($6,500) Former Wisconsin transfer Nakia Watson had a strong year with 736 rushing yards and 12 total touchdowns. Watson hit a groove late in the year, averaging 6.2 yards per carry over the last four weeks, with seven of his eight rushing scores coming in that span. Washington State should have the advantage in the trenches, facing a Fresno State run defense that allowed five of its last six opponents to average over four yards a carry. With multiple starting receivers not playing, we probably should expect the pass game usage to continue for Watson, with 13 of his 32 targets coming in the last two games alone.
Fade – RB Jaylen Jenkins ($5,200) Should see between 5-7 carries Saturday, assuming there isn’t any funny business going around with Nakia Watson’s playing status. If that’s the case, you aren’t spending up to $5.2k for a backup that will only see 5-7 touches and not being featured in the passing game.
Bargain Bin – WR Lincoln Victor ($3,600) I expect to have plenty of Victor exposure Saturday as he’ll bump up to the WR2 role with the departures of multiple starting receivers to the transfer portal in the last few weeks. There’s an article out there too on Victor displaying his passionate speech in front of teammates, telling them essentially to pack up and leave to the portal if you aren’t 100% in with the team. Victor finished just fourth on the team in targets (40) but will assume a much larger role Saturday within the offense.
Pivot Play – QB Cameron Ward ($7,400) Don’t love this matchup for Ward, but with all of the defections/opt-outs, it’s tough to outright fade the junior quarterback. The situation isn’t optimal, though. Three starting receivers out and OC Eric Morris left to be the head coach at North Texas. Fresno State is also strong in the secondary, allowing just 22 FPPG to opposing QB1s and 42nd in pass play success rate. There are only so many sure-fire quarterbacks to go around on this slate, though.
Best of the Rest – Robert Ferrel ($5,100) The former Incarnate Word slot man will assume the WR1 role on Saturday, ranked third on the team in targets (61) and routes run behind Stribling and Ollie. Don’t love this play at his pricing as Wazzu spread the ball around for much of 2022, with the WR1 only accounting for 18% target share during the regular season. Ferrel needs a high amount of targets to be effective with an aDOT of only 6.3. WR Leyton Smithson ($3,800) will assume one of Stribling’s or Ollie’s starting role on the outside and was incorporated plenty within the offense in the second half of the year with 31 of his 36 targets coming in the last six games. Freshman Orion Peters ($3,200) garnered praise from the coaching staff this offseason, but didn’t contribute much in his debut season. Did run 10 or more routes in four of the last five games and there are 181 vacated targets to assume.
Injury Notes – Where to start. WRs Donovan Ollie ($4,900) and De’Zhaun Stribling ($6,100) hit the transfer portal and will not play. WR Renard Bell ($6,300) is also not expected to play.
Fresno State:
Top Play(s) – n/a. There isn’t a prominent top play for Fresno State that we need to jam in our lineups as everyone is relatively expensive, yet we don’t have a Bulldog projected to score over 21 fantasy points. Fresno State hasn’t run the football all that effectively in 2022. Wazzu has allowed the seventh fewest FPPG to opposing WR1s in the country this season. And just one quarterback has scored more than 25 fantasy points all year against a Washington State secondary that ranked 39th in pass success rate. Best argument for rostering Mims is his 64% volume share is one of, if not the highest on the entire slate for a RB.
Fade – WRs beyond the top 3. In the MWC championship vs. Boise State, Fresno’s starting receivers all played 71% or more of the team’s offensive snaps. The duo of Jalen Moreno-Cropper ($7,000) and Nikko Remigio ($6,900) combined for over 50% of the team’s receiving production in 2022. Don’t get cute trying to find a cheap option beyond the notable WR options.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Every notable Fresno State option is $5k or more.
Pivot Play – WR Zane Pope ($5,100) Pope emerged as the team’s WR3 with Josh Kelly out of the picture, with 35 of his 54 targets coming in the last six games.
Best of the Rest – RB Jordan Mims ($7,400) Not an outright fade, obviously, but will have very little exposure given Mims’ pricing. There’s a chance that Fresno does find a bit more success on the ground Saturday given Wazzu will be without two starting linebackers, including an all-conference performer, but the Bulldogs’ offensive line has not performed up to expectations. Just 96th in line yards. You see why Mims has averaged under four yards a carry in three of the last four games. There are equal-to-better RB options on this slate at cheaper salaries.
Injury Notes – WR Josh Kelly ($3,600) Kelly is the only player of note not available for the Fresno offense as he’s hit the portal.
Rice vs. Southern Miss
Point-Spread: SMiss -6.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: SMiss 26 – Rice 19.5
Weather: 74 degrees / 0% rain / 12 mph winds
Rice:
Top Play(s) – WR Bradley Rozner ($5,900) First on the team in touchdowns (9) and routes run this season, showcasing his big play ability with a 15.1 aDOT and a team-high 20.8 yards per catch average. Luke McCaffrey being potentially back in the fold diminishes Rozner’s value slightly, but we don’t know that the former is 100% healthy after missing the last portion of the regular season. For as good as the Southern Miss secondary has been in 2022, they’re 108th in pass play explosiveness allowed which plays right into the hands of the 6-foot-5 Rozner.
Fade – QB AJ Padgett ($7,000) Padgett should be throwing Saturday with Rice being a near-touchdown underdog but will be facing one of the best G5 defensive units in the country in just his second career start. Southern Miss is 25th in pass play success rate and allowed just 19.7 FPPG to opposing QB1s in 2022. Between his two appearances this season against UTSA and UNT, Padgett completed just 51% of his throws and fumbled the ball four times.
Bargain Bin – WR Braylen Walker ($3,000) This listing is just in case we get word that WR Luke McCaffrey ($6,700) is out Saturday, though he is expected back after missing the last two games due to injury. Walker’s viability goes away I would think if McCaffrey is indeed back as he sits on the two line on the depth chart. That said, these bowl games are prime opportunity to get younger guys involved and Walker made waves in his first career outing in the season finale, catching all four of his targets vs. North Texas with a 48-yard touchdown. Could be a name to know down the line, or maybe Saturday?
Pivot Play – WR Isaiah Esdale ($4,200) The former West Virginia transfer was a not-to-distant third in targets (66) and receptions (39) for Rice this season, while finishing second in routes run among receivers. Not usually in the business of rostering receivers that haven’t scored a single touchdown all season, but he’s on the field just as much as the other starting receivers we’re also considering. At least five receptions in three of the last four games.
Best of the Rest – RBs. Good luck deciphering this situation…and not even really worth it to do so. Almost dead even in snap counts the last 3-4 weeks between Cameron Montgomery and Juma Otoviano, facing a Southern Miss defense that is 27th in rush play success rate and 15th in rush play explosiveness allowed. Just two RBs scored over 20 fantasy points against the Golden Eagles this season.
Injury Notes – WR Kobie Campbell ($3,000) Doubt we get any solidifying news beforehand for an obscure Rice receiver on a five-game slate. The 5-foot-7 sophomore slot receiver is listed on the team’s bowl game depth chart but did not play a single snap in the Week 13 loss to North Texas. Would likely be the fourth option with McCaffrey expected back, but Campbell is min priced, and was target 19 times in a two-game span between Week’s 11-12. We’ll continue to do some digging here.
Southern Miss:
Top Play(s) – RB Frank Gore Jr. ($7,200) Only choice for the top play for USM, and maybe the only play we’d consider. 20+ rushing attempts for Gore Jr. in each of the last two games to close out the regular season, facing a Rice rush defense that allowed over six yards a carry over the final three weeks. The Owls are 94th in rush play success rate, though to their credit, only allowed a two RBs all season to top 20 fantasy points against them. According to the Biloxi Sun Herald who covers USM, the team is also expected to “mix in some super back action” on Saturday – aka Gore Jr. will be throwing some passes.
Fade – WR Tiaquelin Mims ($3,300) Bright future for the 5-foot-9 freshman slot receiver who made a name for himself between Week’s 7-11 with 22 of his 24 receptions this season coming in that five-game span. The issue is that 96% of his routes run this season have come in the slot, and Mims plays second fiddle to WR Jakarius Caston ($4,200) – another slot receiver. Just one target over the last two games for Mims with Caston back from injury.
Bargain Bin – WR Latreal Jones ($3,600) Will have little to no ownership on Saturday, and rightfully so if box score scouting. I won’t have any exposure here, but Jones has played 70% of the team’s offensive snaps in each of the last three games.
Pivot Play – WR Jason Brownlee ($6,000) One of the very few target hogs on the slate as Brownlee accounts for 35% of the target share and 7 of the team’s 17 receiving touchdowns. The 6-foot-3 senior was targeted at least eight times in seven of his last eight games played in 2022. Opposing WR1s averaged over 20 FPPG against the Owls this season with five different receivers scoring at least 20 fantasy points.
Best of the Rest – QB Trey Lowe ($5,100) Head coach Will Hall said Lowe will remain the starter at QB for the fourth-straight game, but the wording on that does not sound as though his starting spot is locked in stone should he struggle. Completed under 55% of his passes in three of the last four games and hasn’t thrown more than a single touchdown in a game. The fact USM is expected to mix in Gore Jr. at quarterback lowers my interest level here even more.
Injury Notes – RB Janari Dean ($3,700) Probably won’t matter in the grand scheme, but Dean does have the doubtful tag on DraftKings. Cannot locate a depth chart for Southern Miss nor an update on Dean. Did average 10 rushing attempts over the last month in what could be a blowout situation as Southern Miss is the far superior team here, so might just want to check in briefly before game time to see if Dean is in or not.
Florida vs. Oregon State
Point-Spread: Oreg St -10.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: Oreg St 31.5 – UF 21
Weather: Dome
Florida:
Top Play(s) – RB Montrell Johnson ($6,000) I actually might prefer the cheaper of the two Florida options here (more on that below) but can’t ignore the team’s leader in rushing yards and attempts. High level numbers for the Oregon State run defense show a stout group, ranked second in the Pac-12 in yards allowed per game and gave up just 15 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Advanced data doesn’t paint as pretty a picture where the Beavers are 92nd in rush play success rate and 82nd in explosiveness defensively.
Fade – QB Jack Miller III ($4,500) As alluded to above, we’re expecting a very run-heavy approach from the Gators Saturday given Florida’s personnel in the backfield and the matchup against one of the best secondaries in the country in Oregon State. The Beavers allowed the fewest touchdown passes (11) in the Pac-12, ranked 26th in pass play success rate and allowed just 21 FPPG to opposing QBs during the regular season. Not a situation that I want to play a QB making his first career start, despite his pricing and former 4-star recruit status.
Bargain Bin – TE Jonathan Odom ($3,800) Won’t be investing much at all in the Florida passing game, but Odom will be the top pass-catching option at tight end Saturday with Keon Zipperer not available again. Close the year on a high note with three receptions and a touchdown in six targets in the finale vs. Vanderbilt.
Pivot Play – RB Trevor Etienne ($4,600) TheCFFSite currently has Johnson and Etienne right around the same projection and you’re getting a $1.4k discount with the 4-star freshman. Etienne closed the year on a tear with 80 or more rushing yards in three of the last four, including a season-high 129 yards in the finale against Florida State. We do believe Florida will still find success on the ground against Oregon State despite missing a pair of starters along the offensive line. SEC talent usually wins out…if Florida is motivated.
Best of the Rest – WR Ricky Pearsall ($5,200) Team leader in targets (54), touchdowns (5) and routes run this season. Posted eight targets in three of the last five games and was second on the team with a 17.0 aDOT – we’ll see how many deep balls are thrown, though, with a new quarterback. Slot receivers did find success against Oregon State this season with Jaylen Dixon, Nikko Remigio and Robert Ferrel all scoring 16 fantasy points or more.
Injury Notes – TE Keon Zipperer ($3,300) Zipperer will miss the game with a lower body injury. QB Anthony Richardson ($6,400) is already announced out as he is preparing for the NFL Draft. Not fantasy relevant but starting offensive guard O’Cyrus Torrence is taking a similar path to Richardson and will not play. Torrence was an All-American this season, so that is a big blow to the OL. WR Xzavier Henderson ($4,600) is back on the team’s depth chart and is listed as a starting receiver. Assume that means he’s a go. RB Nay’Quan Wright ($3,600) and Lorenzo Lingard ($3,000) will not play as both have entered the transfer portal.
Oregon State:
Top Play(s) – RB Damien Martinez ($5,800) Stating the obvious here. Despite not being the starter until Week 7, the 3-star true freshman is now just 30 yards shy from being the 18th player in school history to hit the 1,000-yard rushing mark in a season. The Florida run defense did improve later in the year, limiting both South Carolina and Vanderbilt to under four yards a carry, but the dam broke in the finale, allowing five rushing TDs to Florida State. I expect Oregon State to be the hungrier team in this matchup, and Martinez to become a household name on the national scene.
Fade – QB Ben Gulbranson ($6,500) Oregon State scored 38 points in the season finale victory over Oregon despite only throwing 13 passes. The Beavers win despite the quarterback play and will be one of the top schools in the transfer market looking for an upgrade this offseason. We’d only consider Gulbranson if he were $2k cheaper.
Bargain Bin – WR Silas Bolden ($3,600) I still took Bolden’s prop under at 31.5 receiving yards as he’s hit that mark just twice this season but has played over 65% of the offensive snaps in each of the last two games due to Anthony Gould’s injury. Should Gould play, Bolden is irrelevant to us (and probably still that way regardless).
Pivot Play – WR Treshaun Harrison ($7,200) Will see little to no ownership Saturday given his pricing, but Harrison is one of the few alphas among WRs on the slate, garnering 28% of Oregon State’s target share with four receiving touchdowns. Only two WRs scored 20 or more fantasy points against the Gators’ secondary this season, though, and we need 20 points, if not 30, for Harrison to reach value.
Best of the Rest – TE Jack Velling ($3,800) Shame we didn’t get to see starting tight end Luke Musgrave much this season as he was set for a breakout season, but injury forced him to miss much of the year. Backup Jack Velling came on strong the last month and a half, scoring nine or more fantasy points in four of the last five games with three receiving touchdowns. Florida really struggled to defend the tight end position in 2022, allowing 9.8 FPPG to opposing TE1s – 10th highest mark in the country.
Injury Notes – WR Anthony Gould ($5,600) Gould missed the last two games of the regular season with an undisclosed injury and his status for Saturday is unknown. Silas Bolden gets a significant downgrade if Gould is available.
SMU vs. BYU
Point-Spread: SMU -3.5
O/U Total: 64.5
Implied Score: SMU 34 – BYU 30.5
Weather: 34 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
SMU:
Top Play(s) – RB Tyler Lavine ($5,400) Lavine has had a stranglehold of the SMU backfield for the last month and a half, averaging 20.4 carries per game over the last five weeks with seven rushing TDs coming in that span. Looks like Camar Wheaton ($3,000) will play after not suiting up in the finale vs. Memphis so this isn’t necessarily a cut and dry situation as we all remember the infamous matchup with USF in Week 11 where the Alabama transfer vultured two touchdowns away from Lavine. High-level numbers suggest SMU should run over BYU Saturday, but credit to the Cougars for rebounding at the end of the season, limiting it’s last three opponents to under four yards a carry. In fairness, one of those teams was Dixie State and another was down to their sixth string running back who converted over from safety just a few weeks prior (Stanford).
Fade – n/a. Everyone that is playing for SMU is priced accordingly and is an option. Key here really is just making sure who is in fact playing.
Bargain Bin – RJ Maryland ($3,500) The 6-foot-3 freshman is going to be a prized selection next year in CFF drafts, finishing his debut season with 27 receptions and six touchdowns on 38 targets. There’s a distinct chance Maryland flames out Saturday after posting less than five receiving yards in four of his last seven games, but the matchup dictates heavily that we consider him. Opposing TE1s averaged 11.2 FPPG against BYU this season, tied for second most in the entire country.
Pivot Play – QB Tanner Mordecai ($6,900) Will be interested to see how Mordecai performs without his stud receiver in Rashee Rice in this spot, because SMU really struggled to find a No. 2 option all year. Benefit here is that Mordecai had two weeks to gain rapport with his wideouts during bowl practices and has a favorable matchup against a BYU secondary that was 114th in pass play success rate, allowing 28 FPPG to opposing QB1s. Mordecai has the highest floor of any QB on the slate which tends to be pretty valuable in bowl season.
Best of the Rest – WR Jordan Kerley ($5,600) Safe to expect Kerley will assume the WR1 role with Rice out of the lineup, finishing second on the team in targets, and posted 6-76-1 on nine targets in the finale vs. Memphis. He’ll be popular, but I’m interested to see if anyone emerges outside of that. WR Moochie Dixon ($4,700) will start opposite Kerley on the outside, and will “have a chance to breakout” per the Dallas Morning News. Once in the transfer portal earlier in the year, I believe Roderick Daniels ($4,500) would get the starting nod in the slot with Goffney out. Daniels played 40 of 78 snaps against Memphis, including five rushing attempts.
Injury Notes – WR Rashee Rice ($6,800) We know Rice will not play after declaring for the NFL Draft. WR Dylan Goffney ($3,400) has also been ruled out, per the Dallas Morning News. RB TJ McDaniel ($3,800) entered the transfer portal and will not play.
BYU:
Top Play(s) – RB Christopher Brooks ($6,300) Brooks is the one known commodity for BYU that we know is healthy and will play on Saturday. Dealt with injury at times this season, as has been the case for much of his college career but closed the year strong with back-to-back 100-yard rushing performances. He’ll be counted on heavily against an SMU defense that is 126th in rush play success rate and gave up 18.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s. I’d imagine this is another team with a run-heavy approach on the slate.
Fade – QBs. I got nothing here as I’ve never seen Cade Fennegan or Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters throw a football.
Bargain Bin – RB Hinckley Ropati ($4,000) Ropati got some late-season run as the RB2 with Lopini Katoa banged up, and performed well with his limited reps, including 85 yards and a score vs. Stanford in Week 13. I wouldn’t advise heavy exposure, but we’ve already noted to expected a run-heavy approach from BYU this weekend to go along with Brooks’ long list of injuries during his collegiate career.
Pivot Play – TE Isaac Rex ($4,300) Recency bias as Rex caught a pair of touchdowns in the season finale over Stanford and found the end-zone in four of the last six games. SMU allowed just around eight fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season. Only five players saw a single target against Stanford and one of them is not expected to play, so we know Rex should be featured some in the passing game.
Best of the Rest – WR Keanu Hill ($5,300) Hill will play on Saturday after being questionable entering the week. Due in part to the surplus of injuries to the BYU WR corps this season, but Hill wound up finishing first on the team in routes run, touchdowns (7) and second in targets (50). Not investing personally in the BYU pass-catchers if the Cougars are starting a third string QB, but starters should comprise of Hill, Brayden Cosper ($4,000) and Chase Roberts ($3,900) who all played 60% or more of the offensive snaps vs. Stanford. Very little rotation here due to lack of available options.
Injury Notes – Would it be quicker to tell you who is playing vs. not? QB Jaren Hall ($8,800) is not expected to play. Backup QB Jacob Conover ($7,500) hit the transfer portal and is not expected to play. WR Puka Nacua ($7,400) is trending downward and not expected to play. I’m surprised BYU beat writers are still expecting a high-scoring affair Saturday even with BYU’s best offensive pieces not participating. RB Lopini Katoa ($5,400) was also ruled out a few weeks ago.
North Texas vs. Boise State
Point-Spread: BSU -9.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: BSU 33 – UNT 23.5
Weather: 41 degrees / 2% rain / 3 mph winds
North Texas:
Top Play(s) – RB Ikaika Ragsdale ($4,700) I’ll never understand the DK algorithm. Why is someone like Treshaun Harrison sitting at over $7k, yet we have a running back in Ragsdale sitting at just $4.7k despite rushing for 100+ yards in each of the last two games. 16 or more carries in each of the last three games. This is far from a smash play, though, facing a Boise State defense that gave up the fourth fewest FPPG to opposing RB1s in the country this season. Of the defensive components, Boise is weaker vs. the run, though, and UNT’s strength is their offensive line.
Fade – WR Roderic Burns ($5,000) Team leader in targets (56) and routes run but has essentially been a non-factor the last month and a half. Less than 30 receiving yards in four of the last seven games, coincidentally taking a back seat once Jyaire Shorter re-entered the lineup. Take a look at his PFF snap counts. Downward trend since Week 7.
Bargain Bin – WR Damon Ward ($3,000) or Jordan Smart ($3,000) Production isn’t there, but those snap counts we spoke on above with regard to Burns…they’re going to Ward and Smart. Ward, in fact, led all receivers playing over 65% of the offensive snaps. The duo combined for just two receptions on five targets, so these are far from priority plays and closer to outright fades in reality facing this Boise secondary, but both players are on the field quite a bit.
Pivot Play – WR Jyaire Shorter ($4,900) Only averages 4.3 targets per game but makes the most of his opportunities with a team-high 10 receiving touchdowns. That’s what happens with a 27 YPC average and aDOT of over 21 yards. WR1s average just 13.6 FPPG against Boise State, but the Broncos are 122nd in pass play explosiveness allowed. RB Ayo Adeyi ($3,900) gets some consideration as a pivot as he’s rushed for over 50 yards in each of the last three games he’s played in, and we’ve seen UNT rotate their backs at times throughout the year.
Best of the Rest – QB Austin Aune ($5,400) Cheap enough to consider an option, but this is the best G5 secondary in the country Aune will be facing Saturday. Allowed just 15.6 FPPG to opposing QB1s during the regular season. And after the hot streak Aune was on in the middle of the season, the 28-year-old has come back down to Earth, failing to top 16 fantasy points in the last three games. Boise State is No. 1 in the country in pass play success rate defensively. TE Var’Keyes Gumms ($3,600) has arguably been UNT’s most consistent pass-catcher the second half of the year, now tied for second in targets (52) and fourth in routes run. As with most Boise State’s defensive statistics, the Broncos have been exceptional against opposing tight ends, allowing just 3.4 FPPG.
Injury Notes – n/a
Boise State:
Top Play(s) – QB Taylen Green ($7,200) Could go either way here for Boise’s top play between Green and George Holani, but I’ll lean the dual-threat quarterback as there are far more options to choose from at RB on the slate. Opposing QBs had their way with North Texas this season, averaging 28 FPPG against the Mean Green, with allowing 30 fantasy points or more six times. It was a struggle for Green in the MWC Championship vs. Fresno State, but don’t discount the prior three games where the redshirt FR dual threat averaged just under 28 FPPG.
Fade – n/a. Everyone for Boise State is priced appropriately so I can’t suggest completely fading anyone here.
Bargain Bin – TE Riley Smith ($3,500) Season-high six targets for Smith in finale vs. Fresno State, playing 64 of the available 69 offensive snaps. Just two tight ends scored double-digit fantasy points this season against the Mean Green, but that included UTSA’s Oscar Cardenas last week who had 84 yards and a score.
Pivot Play – RB Ashton Jeanty ($4,800) I believe that George Holani ($7,700) does have one year of eligibility remaining but considering the season he’s had along with his history of injuries, I’d be shocked if he comes back in 2023. Aka – this is a prime opportunity to showcase the future in the Boise State backfield in Jeanty. Around 10 total touches is a near lock even with a healthy Holani, and with Boise being a 10-point favorite, I’d suspect we see a bit more than that for Jeanty. North Texas allowed 17.8 FPPG to opposing RBs during the regular season and are 118th in rush play success rate defensively. If looking to get funky with your lineup, Jeanty over Holani might be worthwhile.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Notice that we didn’t include the WRs in the fade portion of this writeup as we normally have throughout the year for Boise State. 10. Count them. 10 different receivers scored 20 or more fantasy points against North Texas this season. Leading receiver Latrell Caples ($5,800) only accounted for 19% of the target share, so Boise doesn’t have a go-to option, but between him, Billy Bowens ($5,400) and Davis Koetter ($4,200), an argument could be made for all three. That trio all played over 64% of the snaps in the MWC championship game. Suggestion – do not double stack here, though. Only have one Boise State receiver max in your lineup.
Injury Notes – WR Stefan Cobbs ($4,900) Cobbs did not play in the MWC championship game and hasn’t been available for two weeks. Boise State’s beat writer has been very good this season of announcing inactives prior to the game, so we’ll know who is available or not.
