Central Florida vs. Boise State
Point-Spread: UCF -3.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: UCF 32 – Boise 28.5
Weather: 87 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Central Florida:
Top Play(s) – QB John Rhys Plumlee ($8,800) Michael Penix Jr. sliced and diced this Boise State secondary last week that lost two All-Conference performers from last season. Second most fantasy points (38.0) given up to an opposing quarterback in Week 1, behind only LSU who is still having nightmares about Jordan Travis and Keon Coleman. Last week’s performance from JRP was very similar to previous years – a lot of good (four total touchdowns) with plenty of mistakes (three turnovers) mixed in.
Fade – RB Demarkcus Bowman ($4,400) The concerns about the perceived depth in the UCF backfield were overestimated. It wasn’t until the game was out of reach that we saw some of the backup running backs for UCF get extended run. Bowman looks to be the clear RB3 right now, which averages just five touches a game over the last decade under Gus Malzahn.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Would not roster anyone under $5k.
Pivot Play – WR Javon Baker ($5,500) or Kobe Hudson ($5,000) The duo combined for nine receptions on 11 targets, running the most routes of any UCF receivers. Boise State’s secondary was absolutely toasted last week, allowing 16 pass plays of 15 yards or more. Was that a result of just pure talent with Jalen McMillan or Rome Odunze or a sign of things to come?
Best of the Rest – WR Xavier Townsend ($5,400) So this is why UCF was fine with Ryan O’Keefe seeking another destination in the transfer portal. Didn’t see much difference at all between O’Keefe and his successor, with Townsend leading the team with 81 yards and a score on six targets. Not sure that Townsend is in fact the WR1 here, but that has been a valuable spot in Malzahn’s offense, hitting 100 targets in each of the last four years. I’m tentative in rostering RJ Harvey ($6,300) given how the Boise State run defense performed against Washington, limiting the Huskies to just 78 yards on the ground.
Injury Notes – n/a
Boise State:
Top Play(s) – RB Ashton Jeanty ($4,800) Clear as day to everyone who the best running back is on the Boise State roster. But so long as Holani is healthy, which is the furthest thing from a guarantee, this could be a split backfield all year. Jeanty’s usage as a runner and receiver at this pricing is too intriguing regardless of the matchup.
Fade – WR Billy Bowens ($5,200) This could have Holani as well. Last week’s performances just reiterated the fact that Boise State needs to give their younger, more talented options, more opportunities. We saw that with Jeanty. We saw that at wide receiver as well. Bowens did see eight targets but converted on just 37% of those with multiple drops. He’s the third or fourth option in the passing game.
Bargain Bin – WR Eric McAlister ($4,600) Game script played a huge role as Boise won’t throw the ball 44 times every game, but they might want to a bit more than last year with an emerging talent like McAlister. 7-69-0 on 15 targets. The 6-foot-4 sophomore was trending upwards late last year with three touchdowns in the final three weeks and appears to be challenging for the Boise St WR1 role, if he doesn’t have it already.
Pivot Play – WR Stefan Cobbs ($5,300) Cobbs was a CFF bust a year ago, though I’m beginning to think a lot of that was due to Hank Bachmeier’s ineffectiveness throwing the football downfield. 6-56-0 on 10 targets for Cobbs, though another Boise receiver that had a case of the drops with two against Washington.
Best of the Rest – QB Taylen Green ($6,200) Green is one of the reasons we can surpass a stud QB like Bo Nix. Absurdly low pricing for a quarterback that can give you 100 rushing yards potentially on the ground, as he did three times in 10 starts in 2022 with 10 rushing touchdowns. No, it was not a good performance a week ago from Green, completing just 47% of his throws, but we need his effectiveness more on the ground than in the air. With an implied team total of four touchdowns, we have to have some Boise State exposure in our lineups with these prices on Green and the other components.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oregon vs. Texas Tech
Point-Spread: Oreg -6
O/U Total: 69
Implied Score: Oreg 37.5 – Tx Tech 31.5
Weather: 97 degrees / 16% rain / 9 mph winds
Oregon:
Top Play(s) – RB Bucky Irving ($6,800) Going Irving here over Nix because of pricing and the exorbitant number of cheaper quarterbacks to choose from on the slate. The last time Bucky Irving failed to score double-digit fantasy points in a game was October 1st of last season against Stanford where he didn’t catch a single pass. Oregon’s effectiveness on the ground combined with Irving’s usage as a runner and receiver provides such a high floor for the junior back.
Fade – RB Jordan James ($5,500) The former 4-star recruit and Georgia commit was awesome last week showing flashes of brilliance, rushing for 86 yards and three scores on just 10 attempts. That was in a 70-point blowout without primary backup Noah Whittington. Reading pregame reports and it sounds like Whittington is expected back this week which should push James down the depth chart again. Love the outlook for 2024 after last week’s performance but cannot justify James here if Whittington is back.
Bargain Bin – TE Terrance Ferguson ($3,700) One of the better tight ends in the country that just gets overshadowed at times by all the talent on the Oregon roster. Quiet day last week with three catches on three targets. The best part about Ferguson is that he doesn’t spend a lot of time blocking. Similar splits to last year in Week 12, spending 44.4% of the time lined up in the slot.
Pivot Play – WR Gary Bryant Jr. ($4,900) We were so focused on Tez Johnson as the top transfer that we completely forgot about the former USC Trojan. And that was a mistake as Bryant went for 100 yards and two touchdowns on seven targets. Bryant also ran the most routes of any Oregon receiver last week. Kris Hutson returning to the lineup might change the dynamic, but I’d imagine that would be more with Traeshon Holden or the other depth pieces rather than Bryant.
Best of the Rest – QB Bo Nix ($9,400) Nix is currently on a nine-game streak of completing at least 65% of his passes. The transformation from his days at Auburn to now has been incredible. I think we cut costs at the QB position and look elsewhere, but Nix obviously has slate breaking ability with his arm and legs. Game stack with Shough/Bradley on the other side is a viable option. WR Troy Franklin ($6,600) doesn’t often get mentioned nationally as one of the top receivers in the country but continues to go out and produce on a weekly basis. He has now scored a touchdown in his last five games.
Injury Notes – WR Kris Hutson ($5,100) Along with Whittington, Kris Hutson also did not suit up last week, with HC Dan Lanning saying, “we’re going to be smart with our players.” I saw more confirmation that Whittington will be back than Hutson, but we’ll obviously be checking these statuses pregame.
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – WR Jerand Bradley ($5,900) Combined numbers for Bradley in the last three games: 24 receptions on 35 targets for 349 yards and three touchdowns. That’s also four touchdowns in Tyler Shough’s last five starts. Think it’s obvious who Shough’s No. 1 target is in the passing game?
Fade – RB Cam’Ron Valdez ($5,100) Just six carries last week for Valdez as the clear RB2 behind Tahj Brooks. The talk was that the Tech coaching staff was high on its depth behind Brooks in the backfield, but I don’t think its at the level we saw a year ago with SaRodorick Thompson. Valdez was also not targeted a single time coming out of the backfield.
Bargain Bin – WR Jordan Brown ($3,200) Not sure if injury or performance related, or just part of the plan, but Brown 10% more offensive snaps than starter Loic Fouonji vs. Wyoming.
Pivot Play – WR Myles Price ($4,700) Interesting that Price’s salary is lower than Drae McCray despite out-producing him last week with 6-65-1 on eight targets. We know Zach Kittley’s history with production out of the slot receiver (Malachi Corley / Jerreth Sterns), and while Price was a “bust” last season compared to expectations, some of that had to do with health. Price is healthy now.
Best of the Rest – QB Tyler Shough ($8,100) Whether deserved or not, Shough received criticism after last week’s loss to Wyoming for how Tech’s offense stalled repeatedly after the first quarter. One more defeat or average performance and the calls will grow louder for Behren Morton. That said, we have a 30-point projection for Shough in a game total close to 70. Close to a must-have in your lineup. RB Tahj Brooks ($5,400) will never be a 30-point producer as a running back given how little Tech actually runs the football. It bodes well for Brooks, though, that there is no SaRodorick Thompson behind him this year stealing carries. 15+ touches a game should be the standard.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas vs. Alabama
Point-Spread: Bama -7
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: Bama 30 – Tex 23
Weather: 83 degrees / 4% rain / 7 mph winds
Texas:
Top Play(s) – WR Xavier Worthy ($6,200) No drops last week for Worthy, that’s a huge improvement over last year. Still saw shades of 2022, though, with Quinn Ewers missing Worthy on a few deep shots with his wildly inconsistent accuracy. 7-90-0 on 10 targets.
Fade – RBs. We’re going to see a split with Jonathon Brooks and Cedric Baxter, with the 5-star freshman back at practice this week after leaving the contest vs. Rice with an injury. Texas’ offensive line played poorly last week against a lesser opponent with a 33.3% success rate when running the ball. Good luck against the Alabama front.
Bargain Bin – TE Ja’Tavion Sanders ($3,700) Sanders only converted on two of his six targets but averaged 22 yards per catch and found the end-zone. Texas will have to throw to win today, and Sanders is the second most trusted option behind Worthy. Nickel corner Malachi Moore is a game-time decision here (***expected to play) so either Sanders or Jordan Whittington could have an advantage over the middle of the field.
Pivot Play – WR AD Mitchell ($5,600) The Georgia transfer ran the second most routes behind Worthy last Saturday and played 80% of the offensive snaps, catching a touchdown in the process. Mitchell has had success in the past against the Tide, catching a 40-yard touchdown in the National Championship game as a freshman.
Best of the Rest – QB Quinn Ewers ($7,000) Ewers was at his best in this matchup last season before leaving due to injury. The sophomore QB grew into the game against Rice after a slow start, finishing with 260 yards and three scores, but displayed some of the maddening concerns (accuracy) he had in 2022. 19-point projection doesn’t dictate us playing Ewers this week, particularly given the other intriguing QB options on the slate. I tend to think this will be a lower scoring affair. FWIW – Ewers’ passing yard prop is up about 20 yards since open so bettors do think he’ll put up some yards on this secondary.
Injury Notes – n/a
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – QB Jalen Milroe ($9,200) From a projection and numbers standpoint, Milroe stands out as the top play. But I hammered his under passing prop at open. Essentially, prove it to us. Last Saturday was a good start with 194 yards and three touchdowns against Middle Tennessee. His previous start before that? 111 yards and three touchdowns against a very bad Texas A&M team. We know what Milroe is capable of on the ground, and after last week’s performance, it doesn’t appear he has to look over his shoulder at possibly getting replaced.
Fade – WR Ja’Corey Brooks ($6,300) Not exactly sure if performance or injury related but Brooks played just 18 of 57 offensive snaps against Middle Tennessee, targeted just twice. If that keeps up, he’s a transfer candidate by year’s end.
Bargain Bin – TE Amari NiBlack ($3,500) Were we wrong to assume Maryland transfer CJ Dippre would be the top tight end on the Bama roster? After one week that appears to be the case as NiBlack ran the third most routes of any Alabama pass-catcher and caught a 29-yard touchdown.
Pivot Play – WR Isaiah Bond ($6,400) Don’t feel comfortable rostering any Alabama receivers in this game environment on the chance the moment is too big for Milroe, forcing the Tide to lean heavily on the run. If I do, Bond would be the choice after his Week 1 performance with 5-76-1 on five targets and running the most routes of any Bama receiver.
Best of the Rest – RBs. Very interested to see how the RB rotation shakes out in a game that matters. Obvious that Jase McClellan will finish with the most carries among Bama backs on Saturday, but is that 40% of the rushing attempts? 20%? Complete RBBC with Justice Haynes, Roydell Williams and Jam Miller all involved? Texas held Rice to just 27 yards on the ground, but the Owls are also one of the worst rushing teams in the country the last few seasons. I’m fine with rostering Milroe and Milroe alone here with so much vagueness with the Alabama depth chart and rotations.
Injury Notes – n/a
Wisconsin vs. Washington State
Point-Spread: Wisc -6
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: Wisc 32 – Wazzu 26
Weather: 81 degrees / 1% rain / 6 mph winds
Wisconsin:
Top Play(s) – RB Braelon Allen ($6,900) 141 rushing yards against a MAC opponent is expected from Allen. Seven receptions on seven targets is not. The one noted difference between the previous Wisconsin regime and new OC Phil Longo did come into play against Buffalo, though. Longo’s preference on a split backfield has been a thing at all of his previous stops and that continue Saturday with a 17-13 split between Allen and backup Chez Mellusi. 20 carries per game for the Wisconsin RB1 is a thing of the past, but 20 touches might not be with Allen’s active hands in the passing game.
Fade – QB Tanner Mordecai ($7,200) I was out when Mordecai threw five interceptions in the Wisconsin spring game. Last week’s performance against Buffalo did nothing to squash those concerns, throwing for just 189 yards and two touchdowns. Turnovers clearly remain an issue still, and after one week, Wisconsin ranks 100th in pass success rate and 106th in EPA (Expected Points Added).
Bargain Bin – WR Bryson Green ($4,700) The Oklahoma State transfer was tied for the team lead in targets (5) among wideouts. Still a lot of sorting out to do here, though, as to who the preferred options are in the Wisconsin passing game or will it be spread out most of the year?
Pivot Play – WR Will Pauling ($5,100) Really healthy projection for Pauling here despite a mediocre Week 1, hauling in five catches for 55 yards. The intrigue here is past production of slot receivers in Phil Longo’s passing scheme. Five of the last six years the slot receiver finished No. 1 in fantasy points for the respective team under Longo, with three 100-target seasons.
Best of the Rest – WR Chimere Dike ($5,300) Just one target for Dike last week despite running the most routes of any Wisconsin receiver. Did result in a touchdown, though, and his 20.0 aDOT (average depth of target) was highest on the team. Given our hesitancy with trusting Mordecai, we’d probably suggest just one Wisconsin receiver in a lineup and not stacking multiple. Which one is truly the best option is a guessing game.
Injury Notes – n/a
Washington State:
Top Play(s) – WR Lincoln Victor ($4,700) We figured Victor would be among the top three pass-catching options for Wazzu this season, but 11 receptions on 14 targets vs. Colorado State was not on our bingo card. Slot receivers in Ben Arbuckle’s offensive system have proven to be very profitable from a fantasy standpoint (Malachi Corley).
Fade – RB Nakia Watson ($5,800) I remember this matchup last year and us advising to fade Watson against his former team. We downplayed the revenge factor facing his former team and were burned as Watson had over 60 yards of total offense and two touchdowns. Wisconsin did allow over 130 rushing yards last week to Buffalo, but we’re back to fading Watson again in this matchup. Take out the 73 rushing yards from Washington State QBs and the running backs combined for all of 44 yards on the ground. Watson missed most of fall camp due to injury so there is probably a lot of rust there.
Bargain Bin – DT Sheffield ($3,000) Sigh. One of our favorite players this offseason and projected breakout performers of the 2023 season put up a dud with three receptions on four targets. Sheffield was injured for a portion of fall camp, so we’re wondering if that played a role in his limited production. Victor played 79% of the offensive snaps last week, while Sheffield only played 47%. At this pricing though, you can absolutely guarantee we’ll be mixing Sheffield into our lineups. He’s the fastest player on the team.
Pivot Play – WR Josh Kelly ($5,300) Victor wasn’t the only Washington State receiver to surprise last week, as the former Fresno State transfer posted 97 yards and a touchdown on eight targets. While it was debated who was the top slot receiver this offseason between Victor and Sheffield, there was no questioning who was the preferred outside receiver on the roster. High floor / high ceiling combination with many of the Wazzu wideouts.
Best of the Rest – QB Cam Ward ($8,200) So far, so good for Ward assimilating to the new offensive system under Ben Arbuckle. 76% completion rate for 451 yards and four total scores against Colorado State. Even in a blowout, the passing volume looked very similar to Western Kentucky last year under Arbuckle, attempting 49 passes. I’d expect 40+ on Saturday. UNLV transfer Kyle Williams ($5,400) finished third in routes run and targets last week, finding the end-zone once. True freshman WR Carlos Hernandez ($3,400) made his way up the depth chart despite a crowded room and has overtaken several veterans. Converted on all five of his targets. Given the rates at which Washington State throws the football, stacking multiple WRs (with or without Ward) is an definite option.
Injury Notes – n/a
UCLA vs. San Diego State
Point-Spread: UCLA -14
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: UCLA 31 – SDSU 17
Weather: 82 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
UCLA:
Top Play(s) – WR J Michael Sturdivant ($6,900) Divided at the CFFSite on how the running back projections should shake out, so let’s focus our attention on the solidified WR1 for the Bruins in Sturdivant. Team-high nine targets against Coastal Carolina with 136 receiving yards and a score. No other UCLA receiver was targeted more than three times. Through two weeks, San Diego State is allowing 20.3 FPPG to opposing WR1s.
Fade – QBs. Chip Kelly offering no clues as to who will start on Saturday, as well as stating that all three quarterbacks will play against SDSU. Two is probably more reasonable than all three playing, but guessing incorrectly on the starting QB will sink your roster immediately. Though we have a very good hunch that it will be the 5-star freshman getting the starting nod given what he displayed last weekend.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Would not consider anyone under $4.5k.
Pivot Play – RB Carson Steele ($6,700) Folks will be scared off by the potential backfield split with Steele and TJ Harden. Our fearless leader Joe is 100% convinced that this is/will be Carson Steele’s job at some point, as his 19.1 projection indicates. Here are the advantages for the Ball State transfer through one game. 38-23 snap count advantage and more usage in the passing game with four targets.
Best of the Rest – WR Logan Loya ($5,100) Loya ran the most routes of any wideout vs. Coastal Carolina, but the production was minimal with three targets. WR2 only averages around 40 targets per season in this run-based scheme so we’re avoiding anyone outside of Sturdivant. Loya, Kyle Ford and Kam Brown are all P5 transfer castoffs that have minimal production on their resume.
Injury Notes – n/a. On a closing note, I did find it funny that the UCLA beat writer predicted the final score of this contest to be 17-6. Not even remotely close to the Vegas implied total, but maybe we’re fools for analyzing this potentially low-scoring affair.
San Diego State:
We would normally write up a team with an implied team total of 17 points, but the production is so spread out amongst the WRs and RBs that it’s not even worth analyzing extensively. Also, very disappointed with the way QB Jalen Mayden ($6,800) began his season, including last week by throwing for 88 yards against Idaho State. UCLA was average in defending the Coastal Carolina passing game for a half, before tightening the screws late in the game. But San Diego State doesn’t have near the weaponry the Chanticleers possess at receiver. Full-team fade for me. If desperate to find someone on the SDSU side to play, TE Mark Redman ($3,700) is still the play aside from his dud a week ago. Just two targets but played over 90% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Grambling State vs. LSU
Point-Spread: n/a
O/U Total: n/a
Implied Score: n/a
Weather: 90 degrees / 18% rain / 8 mph winds
Grambling State:
Grambling State University is home to the Tiger Marching Band, a world-renowned group that has performed in multiple Super Bowls, at George W. Bush’s inaugural parade in 2001 and was a special guest to the Emperor of Japan in 1982. Their performance in the 1967 Super Bowl has been called one of the Top 10 halftime shows of all time by Sports Illustrated magazine.
LSU:
Top Play(s) – QB Jayden Daniels ($9,000) Always like to look back to previous year(s) and check how FBS vs. FCS games played out to see if we can glean anything. No surprise, both Daniels and Garrett Nussmeier played a 65-17 win over Southern University, with the former accounting for four touchdowns in the win. The Tigers should be plenty motivated to put out a good showing this week after the blowout loss that occurred to Florida State. If the Nuss Bus was $2k cheaper, I might’ve considered him seeing as that he’ll get a lot of work Saturday.
Fade – RB Tre Bradford ($3,700) Just as we all expected last week, Tre Bradford led the LSU running backs in fantasy points scored against Florida State. Check the injury notes as to why we’ll be fading this week. Could be very muddy in the LSU running back room moving forward.
Bargain Bin – TE Mason Taylor ($3,900) Would imagine that Taylor will be in the $4k range for the remainder of the season as LSU’s third best pass-catcher on the roster. Four targets in Week 1 but played every single one of the 65 offensive snaps in the game.
Pivot Play – WR Malik Nabers ($7,200) I know what our site projections say, but I want more proof than one game to say that Nabers is not the WR1 on this team. Great performance from Brian Thomas Jr. with 142 yards and a touchdown, but Nabers was the primary with 12 targets. I’ll spend the extra $500 here for the person who I deem is the better player.
Best of the Rest – WR Kyren Lacy ($6,000) We’ll see more rotation in this impending blowout, but there was very little of it against Florida State. Between Lacy, Nabers and Thomas, the trio combined to play at least 86% of the offensive snaps vs. the Seminoles.
Injury Notes – Sounds like Logan Diggs will play on Saturday after missing the Florida State game. Both Armoni Goodwin and Aaron Anderson have been upgraded to probable. With how much depth LSU has at these positions, we’ll wait a week to consider them.
McNeese vs. Florida
Point-Spread: n/a
O/U Total: n/a
Implied Score: n/a
Weather: 83 degrees / 62% rain / 5 mph winds
McNeese State:
During World War II, the campus of McNeese State University was the headquarters of the ‘Louisiana Maneuvers’, an extensive military exercise to prepare our soldiers for battle.
Florida:
Top Play(s) – RB Trevor Etienne ($6,200) Napier said himself this week that he needs to get both Etienne and Montrell Johnson ($7,000) more involved in the run game, as the duo accounted for just 10 carries in the loss to Utah. Both are potential options (probably not both in one lineup), but favor Etienne here as he did see more carries and offensive snaps. Both offer something in the passing game – targeted nine times combined last week.
Fade – High priced receivers not named Ricky Pearsall. This should be a showcase game for some of the younger, talented receivers on the Florida roster as Napier tries to excite the fan base once again. With how much Florida rotated their receivers in Week 1, we would aim for either Pearsall or one of the freshmen.
Bargain Bin – WR Eugene Wilson III ($3,700) The freshman receiver had just two catches against Utah, but showed a level of explosiveness that we haven’t seen from Florida receivers in some time. It was announced this week that Wilson will be a starter on Saturday.
Pivot Play – QB Graham Mertz ($8,600) There is no doubt the pressure is on both Mertz and Napier after last week’s disastrous performance against Utah. Playing the speculation game, but I’m going to assume that Florida will want to show some progress in the passing game to excite the fan base that is growing tiresome already of both the quarterback and head coach. McNeese State allowed 344 passing yards and three touchdowns in a 52-34 loss last week to Tarleton State. Surely, Mertz can find some success, right?
Best of the Rest – WR Ricky Pearsall ($6,800) Would venture to guess that the 13 targets accumulated for Pearsall last Thursday will be the high point of his season. No other Florida receiver had more than five targets. Would not stack Pearsall and Mertz as that could sink you lineups easily, and I believe Florida would like to get valuable experience for some of their younger players this week.
Injury Notes – WR Kahleil Jackson ($5,800) With Jackson questionable for Saturday and Eugene Wilson’s place on the starting line of the depth chart, we would say it’s a strong likelihood that Jackson does not suit up.
Charlotte vs. Maryland
Point-Spread: ND -8
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: MD 38.5 – Char 11
Weather: 80 degrees / 59% rain / 7 mph winds
Charlotte:
Top Play(s) – QB Jalon Jones ($5,200) We will have zero exposure to Charlotte on this slate, but Jones is undoubtedly the top play on the 49ers. Passing game looks like it could be a major work in progress, throwing just 125 yards in the opener. Charlotte returns just 33% of their offensive production from last season so we knew going in this would be a rebuild of sorts as the new staff turns over the roster. What we do know about Jones, though, is that he’s an athlete, rushing for 574 yards and five TDs last season at Bethune Cookman.
Fade – Tight Ends. New Charlotte HC Biff Poggi does come from the Jim Harbaugh coaching tree so this shouldn’t surprise me, but the 49ers rotated four different tight ends equally in their opening win vs. South Carolina State. Jake Clemons was the starter, but that level of alternation means we wouldn’t consider anyone from that group.
Bargain Bin – WR Jack Hestera ($4,400) Hestera “seems” to have established himself as the WR1, at least through one week. Played the most offensive snaps and led the team in both receptions and targets. Averaged 15.3 YPC and an aDOT of 20.0 so they’re targeting him downfield.
Pivot Play – WR Duane Thomas Jr. ($4,200) When the opening depth chart was released, any freshmen appearing on the starting line will catch our eye. Production was minimal but the usage is what might be intriguing down the line with three targets in the passing game along with a few carries on the ground. That aligns with his high school production with nearly 1,000 total yards of offense as a senior – 606 receiving and 287 yards on the ground.
Best of the Rest – RB Durell Robinson ($4,300) If there was a player on the Charlotte roster who could potentially start at a school like Maryland, it would be Robinson, a former 3-star recruit that was a Top 300 prospect at ESPN. Robinson might still be behind Shadrick Byrd on the official depth chart, but it’s only a matter of time. The freshman rushed for 71 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries in the opener.
Injury Notes – n/a
Maryland:
Top Play(s) – QB Taulia Tagovailoa ($7,600) Backfield is very congested and the Terps have a surplus of receiving options, so why not roll with the guy who we know touches the ball every play, and at a very reasonable pricing. Strong projection at 26.9. Really am not concerned at all with the matchup but two notes I found interesting. (1) Mike Miller, Maryland’s co-OC last season, is now the play-caller at Charlotte. I’d imagine he has a few secrets to dish to the defensive staff about his former QB. (2) It was against South Carolina State, but the Charlotte secondary ranks 4th nationally in pass play success rate defensively. Food for thought is all.
Fade – WR Tyrese Chambers ($6,300) Many projected the FIU transfer to be Maryland’s WR1 coming into 2023. Based off one game, he might not even be in the top 4-5. Ran the seventh most routes on the team in the opener vs. Towson, targeted just four times. The excess of receiving options means we need should look to spend down when investing in Maryland wideouts.
Bargain Bin – TE Corey Dyches ($3,800) Strong opener for a tight end we had projected in our Top 10 CFF rankings at the position. Six catches on six targets for over 100 yards and a touchdown. HC Mike Locksley loves to utilize the tight end position at his previous stops, and Dyches has a very similar build to a previous Maryland stud in Chig Okonkwo.
Pivot Play – RB Roman Hemby ($6,500) I distinctly remember last year Hemby being one of those pesky DFS plays that I could never predict correctly. Insert him into the lineup and he busts. Fade and he goes bonkers. The biggest annoyance is this staff’s insistence on giving backup Antwain Littleton a considerable amount of work despite lesser results. Don’t envision Hemby having much ownership after last week’s ordinary performance and backfield splits.
Best of the Rest – WR Octavian Smith ($3,600) I know from reading Maryland previews over the summer that the staff is super high on this sophomore receiver who wound up leading the Terps last week with seven targets.
Injury Notes – RB Ramon Brown ($4,800) Don’t have an updated injury status here, but the former 4-star recruit was listed as out for the opener. Maryland has a plethora of options in the backfield so wouldn’t risk it.
Eastern Michigan vs. Minnesota
Point-Spread: Minn -20.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: Minn 34 – EMU 13.5
Weather: 71 degrees / 36% rain / 10 mph winds
Eastern Michigan:
Top Play(s) – WR Tanner Knue ($4,800) Not often will the top Eastern Michigan selection NOT be Samson Evans, but here we are. Gone are Dylan Drummond, Hassan Beydoun and Darius Lassiter, so it only makes sense that Knue would get all the targets. And that he did in Week 1 with 35% target share, resulting in 8-73-1. Have to figure that EMU will need to throw in this game.
Fade – QB Austin Smith ($5,300) Self explanatory with a 12.1-point projection at quarterback. Smith does bring some mobility to the table, and Chris Creighton’s offensive system has utilized designed run plays for the QB in the past. Would say zero exposure here.
Bargain Bin – TE Jere Getzinger ($3,000) Some folks were on starting tight end Andreas Paaske in the preseason, but it was Getzinger getting the most reps (not sure if due to injury), targeted five times with the second most routes run outside behind
Knue.
Pivot Play – RB Samson Evans ($5,000) A 38.5% success rate when running the football against Howard? Not great. Evans found the end-zone in the opener but accumulated just 52 yards on 16 carries (3.3). Minnesota wasn’t in defending the run against Nebraska, but much of that had to do with a dynamic dual-threat QB as opposed to defending running backs.
Best of the Rest – Hamze El-Zayat ($4,000) Eastern Michigan rotated between three different tight ends, but the WR rotations almost exclusively consisted of Knue, El-Zayat and JB Mitchell III ($4,200). Just one target to any other wide receiver on the roster.
Injury Notes – n/a
Minnesota:
Top Play(s) – WR Daniel Jackson ($6,100) Of receivers that have played just one game in 2023, Jackson ranks third in targets (15). Do I see this trend continuing necessarily? No, Minnesota has a surplus of pass-catchers at WR and TE, so this could fluctuate. But folks forget that PJ Fleck has also produced top-level fantasy producers at wide receiver in the past (Corey Davis come to mind?). Minnesota’s initial struggles in the run game could also lend to more passing from the Gophers.
Fade – RB Bryce Williams ($4,800) Williams isn’t a bad player and a veteran on the team, but why the insistence of giving him carries with more talented options waiting in the wings with Zach Evans and Darius Taylor considered the future at the position. Minnesota’s beat writer speculated that both could get more run this week to see who the long-term compliment to Tyler in will be 2023.
Bargain Bin – TE Brevyn Spann-Ford ($3,400) We were a bit nervous for BSF in the preseason with Minnesota bringing in two transfer receivers via the portal, when Minnesota was already a low-volume passing offense. Didn’t seem to diminish returns in Week 1 with five receptions on eight targets. Elijah Spencer, who caught 11 passes in the spring game, is the one on the outside looking in if the opener was any indication.
Pivot Play – RB Sean Tyler ($5,900) Ugly performance from the Minnesota running game to open the season, averaging just 3.2 YPC as a team, with Tyler finishing as the leading rusher with 41 yards. I think we could see a bounce back performance against an EMU defense that was gashed on the ground in Week 1 by the Howard Bison for 204 rushing yards. Whether Tyler holds up the entire year as the starter is TBD, but he received 10 of the 17 carries that went to Minny running backs.
Best of the Rest – WR Corey Crooms ($5,100) Overshadowed by Jackson’s performance was the 12 targets Crooms received out of the slot. While we envisioned Minnesota throwing more in 2023 with the pieces brought in through the portal, 41 passing attempts will end up being one of, if not the highest number we saw all year from the Gophers. Would only start one Minnesota receiver in a lineup. QB Athan Kaliakmanis ($7,300) is deserving of some consideration with a 23-point projection and some mobility to add to his value.
Injury Notes – n/a
