Nebraska @ Illinois
Point-Spread: Neb -7
O/U Total: 55
Weather: 90 degrees / 7% rain / 8 mph winds
Nebraska:
Adrian Martinez will be a popular choice via any optimizers out there as the lowest-priced QB of the Big 4 in this slate, and the floor he brings to the table with his rushing ability. At a projected 25.9 fantasy points, that’s just 0.06 points less than Chevan Cordeiro’s for $700 cheaper. Martinez’ rushing ability will likely be counted on, facing the worst rush defense in the Big Ten last season as the Illini allowed over 230 yards per contest. Martinez topped double-digit carries in six of the seven games played last season. High-floor, low-ceiling given the 55 o/u total being the lowest of the three-game slate.
Running back will be a major storyline in warmups with no starter being named to this point. All indications leading up to this week appeared to be that true FR Gabe Ervin would be the guy on Saturday, but the Athletic’s Mitch Sherman is now hinting that second-year back Sevion Morrison might be the likeliest candidate to get the first carry vs. the Illini. Regardless of the starter, the situation has been the same for the entirety of the offseason – whoever amongst the three between Ervin, Morrison, or USC transfer Markese Stepp has the hot hand will get the most opportunities. While Illinois’ suspect run defense is appealing, I’m fading this group until we have more clarity. Morrison’s recent surge towards the starting job, and his min salary, make him the most tempting choice.
Starting receivers should be set for Nebraska with Samori Toure, Omar Manning and Oliver Martin. Toure remains our prediction to lead the Cornhuskers in receptions for 2021, and is a strong play at $4,900 in DK’s PPR setting. One interesting note per Sherman, Manning was the only starting receiver to not be made available for media interviews this summer. Does that have an impact on his playing status? Martin is the highest priced of the three which probably takes him out of the running as a playable option unless Manning doesn’t sees limited reps for whatever reason.
Austin Allen will start at tight end and leads all returning Nebraska pass-catchers with a 12.4 percent target share. Backup Travis Vokolek is nursing an injury currently, so it’s feasible Allen sees extended time on Saturday.
Illinois:
Quick and painless – Brandon Peters gets little to no justification for being a viable option in this slate. His passing leaves much to be desired, completing just 49 percent of his throws. The only way in which Peters can match/surpass value this week is with his legs, where new OC Tony Petersen has utilized his QBs in the past, averaging 105 carries over the last three seasons as a play-caller.
At running back, we discussed this offseason how Petersen has utilized both a workhorse and committee approach in the backfield over the years. Indications appear to be that this will lean more towards the committee side as the Illini coaching staff love their depth behind starter-in-name Chase Brown. Backups Chase Hayden and Reggie Love have garnered heavy praise this fall from the staff, and will see the field on Saturday. Nebraska allowed almost 170 yards per game on the ground in 2020 and ranks 89th in returning defensive production. Brown is a viable option but not a lock for the slate.
No official depth chart release for Illinois, but 247 is signaling that the top three receivers for Saturday will be Brian Hightower, Donny Navarro and converted quarterback Isaiah Williams. If taking a chance on one, give me Hightower with his big-play ability, averaging a team-high 19.0 YPC (min. 10 targets) and 13.0 aDOT. One long touchdown pays off his salary. Jafar Armstrong will garner some ownership given his versatility as both a runner and receiver, along with his min salary, but I don’t have a grasp as to how Illinois will apply him Saturday. Min salary dart throws did not work out well last season for me personally, so I’m steering clear.
Petersen said the top three at TE in order are – Luke Ford, Daniel Barker and Tip Reiman. How they’ll be used, I have no idea. Petersen has rarely included the tight end in his schemes, while Bret Bielema loves them. Best to avoid for now, but that seems to be the pecking order.
UTEP @ New Mexico State
Point-Spread: UTEP -10
O/U Total: 59
Weather: 95 degrees / 15% rain / 7 mph winds
UTEP:
Won’t do a deep dive on the UTEP running backs as Deion Hankins is the lock of the two-game slate facing a New Mexico State defense likely will be one of the worst in the country by season’s end. The former high 3-star prospect led the Miners with 592 rushing yards and nine TDs on 121 carries (4.89 YPA) and will be the centerpiece of the UTEP offense in 2021. Hankins offers little as a receiver – just one reception LY – but those touches could increase with new OC Dave Warner who comes over previously from Michigan State. Senior Quardraiz Wadley is back in the fold after playing in just one game due to injury, and could dip into Hankins’ workload as he’s seen success in the past, rushing for 627 yards back in 2018. RB1s under Warner average 191 carries per season over the last six years which is a significant bump up from what we’ve seen under HC Dana Dimel.
Starting QB Gavin Hardison is the surest bet aside from Nick Starkel among the QBs in this two-game teaser, but failed to top 17 fantasy points once all season last year. This is not a slate in which you need to use two QBs, but Hardison would be the choice by default.
Shame the UTEP passing game has been so anemic as they have two talented receivers in Jacob Cowing and Justin Garrett who accounted for 59 percent of the target share in 2020. Cowing led the way with 41 catches on 75 targets and his aDOT of 17.3 was near the tops on the team despite playing mostly in the slot. Garrett was more efficient, converting on 67 percent of his targets and his 13.2 yards per catch was very impressive despite an aDOT of just 12.4. Both receivers are in play despite our limited interest in Hardison. Walter Dawn appears to be the third option, accounting for 20 receptions last year, though the change in OC may lead to more two-receiver sets that feature more of starting tight end Trent Thompson. Neither player should garner much consideration on Saturday.
New Mexico State:
While my distaste for New Mexico State is still fresh for them losing me money vs. Tarleton State back in the spring, I think there could be some value here given the possible game script as a 10-point dog. The Aggies under HC Doug Martin have traditionally been one of the most pass-happy teams in the country, averaging over 40 attempts per game between 2017-19. The issue is that Martin has not confirmed a starting QB for Saturday with Jonah Johnson and Weston Eget labeled with the dreaded OR on the depth chart. Recent reports indicate Johnson taking most of the first-team reps in practice leading up to the opener, but the leash will be short. Passing volume will make Johnson an intriguing lineup candidate, particularly with his added abilities on the ground where he ran the ball 11 times in two games with two rushing TDs vs. Dixie State.
Seems like the Aggies will feature a similar approach to years past with using two running backs on a frequent basis with former Michigan transfer O’Maury Samuels and redshirt freshman Juwuan Price. Samuels, a former 4-star recruit, sat out the two games in the spring, but was consistently mentioned as their best player in spring ball in 2020 before the season shut down and does sit on the top line of the depth chart. NMSU ran the ball well vs. FCS competition, averaging over six yards a carry, but UTEP brings back 85 percent of their returning production on defense and was 39th nationally in run defense. If NMSU doesn’t find success on the ground, RBs have often been utilized in the passing game, averaging close to 50 receptions per season between the RB1-2.
If rostering NMSU players, receiver is where we will have the most exposure given the price-points of starters Jared Wyatt, Missouri transfer Dominic Gicinto and Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda – all of whom are $3,500 or lower on DK. Garcia-Castaneda was second on the team in targets during the spring (10) with five receptions and was listed as a clear-cut starter, along with Gicinto who projects to be the team’s primary slot man which tends to be a featured role in this particular system. Wyatt is listed as a co-starter along with Robert Downs, both of which should see extensive game action. Terrell Warner will see rotational reps, and it was surprising to not see him listed as a starter given he was the team leader in the spring with eight catches on 15 targets. If choosing one here, Gicinto gets the nod.
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