Western Michigan @ Michigan
Point-Spread: Mich -17
O/U Total: 67
Weather: 72 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Western Michigan:
I’ll be totally honest – even as a fan, I don’t have a clue what to expect from the Michigan defense Saturday. They were atrocious last year, but hired a new DC and implementing a new 3-4. Could go either way honestly. We are getting three touchdowns somewhere from this Western Michigan offense, though, and have a pretty good idea where it will come from.
Of the receivers, I prefer Jaylen Hall over Skyy Moore personally. Not just because of salary, but because I think it’s a great pivot where most will focus on Moore with his higher target totals. Hall is perfectly suited to fill D’Wayne Eskridge’s role as the team’s deep threat, averaging nearly 27 yards per catch and an aDOT of 24. Starting CB Vincent Gray struggled mightily last year in one-on-one coverage defending the deep ball vs. outside receivers – remember what Michigan State’s Ricky White did to him? WR3 is up for grabs here, but I believe Tennessee-Chattanooga transfer Bryce Nunnelly will fill the outside role opposite Hall. He had over 150 receptions in two years there. Tight ends are no longer a part of this offense.
WMU brings back four starters along the offensive line and they were outstanding last year during MAC play, ranking 25th nationally in line yards created. Michigan does have some questions along the offensive front, but have generally succeeded in the past vs. G5 opponents. I’m fading La’Darius Jefferson and that WMU backfield which could be a RBBC with Sean Tyler and Jaxson Kincaide back.
Kaleb Eleby as a second quarterback will be tempting. With our options on this slate for DK, I’m mostly looking to spend up at quarterback and find deals elsewhere, but if WMU is to score on Saturday, it will be via Eleby and his receivers against Michigan’s questionable secondary. I don’t think he’s completely off the table here
Michigan:
Surprised by the 42 implied total for Michigan this week, but just reading up on their opponent a bit more, I think WMU could have their struggles on defense not only on Saturday, but throughout the year. Problem is we aren’t getting any discounts with Michigan players despite their lack of production last season.
Expect a three-man committee at running back with Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum handling the duties, and 5-star FR Donovan Edwards getting some run late as well. While I still believe Haskins will lead the way Saturday, Corum has been a standout all offseason, transforming his body by packing on weight and will see a significant amount of playing time Saturday. Limited upside given this is a full-fledged RBBC, but Corum should undoubtedly surpass his $3,600 salary in production. There is also a growing confidence around the program that the offensive line will be better than anticipated.
I can’t get on board with Ronnie Bell at $7,000 after topping double-digit fantasy points just twice last season. At least four catches in every game, but he should be in the $5k range. If Corum has been the No. 1 standout of the offseason, junior Cornelius Johnson would be No. 2 among the skill positions, but even he is priced up to $6,700 on DK. For GPPs, I think you’ll see low ownership here, and these two should distance themselves as the top targets in the passing game.
Think Brian Griese when you look at Cade McNamara. Or the opposite of Joe Milton for a recent comparison. Won’t wow anyone with physical attributes but he’s accurate throwing the ball and makes his teammates better. $8,100 is just too pricey for a QB that doesn’t run at all, and an offense that should favor the run to start the year. I’ll pass.
Penn State @ Wisconsin
Point-Spread: Wisc -5.5
O/U Total: 50
Weather: 66 degrees / 9% rain / 7 mph winds
Penn State:
I think this Penn State offense will be vastly improved from a year ago with new offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich, but I’m staying away in DFS this week against a Top 5 defense in Wisconsin. Start at running back where Noah Cain looks to be the clear-cut starter here, but there’s a ton of depth in the backfield with Baylor transfer John Lovett and Keyvone Lee. With quarterback Sean Clifford also dipping into the rushing distribution, I’m avoiding the Penn State backfield.
As for Clifford, he’s priced down this week compared to where he was a year ago at this time in the $7k range, and won’t have to deal with any quarterback rotation as he did a year ago with Will Levis. This scheme has never been shy about involving the QBs in the run game, averaging 124 carries and nine rushing TDs the last three seasons, so I do really like Clifford as a potential DFS option later in the year. This isn’t the matchup for him.
Passing attack will once again center around Jahan Dotson and slot receiver Parker Washington. Outside receivers have been the primaries in a Yurcich led offense which bodes well for his outlook in 2021, and Dotson was a slate-breaker a time or two last season. Wisconsin’s pass rush and press coverage were points of emphasis in the offseason, and the Badgers have now forced a turnover in 13-straight games. That doesn’t bode well for Clifford or this passing game. Again…like the Penn State offense, just not Saturday.
Wisconsin:
It’s been expected the last few weeks from reading up on Wisconsin that we should not expect a bell-cow in the backfield this season. Jalen Berger said as much recently speaking to the media that he expects him and Chez Mellusi to share the load this season. The warning signs regarding Berger’s build at 6-foot, 203 pounds, came true as some didn’t think he could handle a Jonathan Taylor-like load. Turns out that might wind up being the case. On the plus side, both Mellusi and Berger are expected to get more looks as pass-catchers which adds to their value. Odds would side with us looking at a 15-10 split in terms of rushing attempts between the two, unless Mellusi gets rolling against a Top 30 rush defense in Penn State. Spending $5k given the historical production of Wisconsin running backs might be worth it, regardless of the opponent.
Starting QB Graham Mertz was abysmal last from a fantasy standpoint outside of the opener vs. Illinois. Penn State’s defense is far better. Wisconsin will have their full complement of pass-catchers on Saturday with tight end Jake Ferguson healthy, and both Danny Davis and Kendric Pryor returning after missing much of last season. As much as it’s indicated the Badgers will throw it more in 2021, this is still a run-based scheme that will top 550 combined carries on the year. No interest in the Wisconsin passing game.
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