South Carolina @ Georgia
Point-Spread: UGA -31.5
O/U Total: 47
Weather: 78 degrees / 28% rain / 3 mph winds
South Carolina:
Implied total has now dropped to 7.75. We have zero interest with any South Carolina players. From the sounds of quotes from head coach Shane Beamer, I doubt we see Luke Doty start on Saturday as the staff wants to wait until he is 100 percent healthy. According to Beamer, “we anticipate him being able to play on Saturday night if the situation dictates that he needs to be in.” With a blowout looming, might as well trot out the student manager Zeb Noland to take the eventual beating.
RB1 Kevin Harris made his long-awaited return to the field last week vs. East Carolina but registered just 23 yards on seven carries. As a team, the Gamecocks managed just 3.7 yards a carry against a Pirates defense that allowed north of 200 against Appalachian State in the opener. Expect to see Harris, JuJu McDowell, ZaQuandre White and MarShawn Lloyd all tote the rock on Saturday night, making this a situation to avoid again vs. a Georgia defense that is 26th in Defensive Rush Success. The South Carolina offensive line has not gotten the job done either, ranking 86th in line yards created vs. two below-average opponents.
Top three at receiver is pretty well-established at this point with Jalen Brooks, Josh Vann and Dakereon Joyner dominating the snap counts. Vann led the way in targets with seven vs. East Carolina, and his 18.7 aDot dwarfs the others. Joyner caught all five of the passes directed his way last week with a receiving touchdown, and is tied along with Vann for the team lead in targets with nine. Brooks is on the field more than anyone, but has little to show for it. Tight ends are not part of this scheme in the passing game.
Georgia:
I don’t mind saying it – if you touted Stetson Bennett last week as a DFS/CFF option, that was pure luck. Per 247, Bennett is likely to get the start again this week as he’s gotten the most reps with the first-team offense over J.T. Daniels. This report was as of Thursday morning so TBD if they change between now and Saturday night. Georgia QBs are entering CJ Verdell and Marvin Mims territory for me if they haven’t already – meaning I truly cannot predict when their breakout games happen or not. While the offense sucks, the Gamecocks are transitioning well to the new defensive scheme, rankings 16th in Rush Success, No. 1 overall (tied with Georgia) in Finishing Drives and 20th in Havoc created. USC has allow just two plays of over 20 yards – one of which was the trick play last week vs. East Carolina.
The Georgia backfield is an annual mess and 2021 is no different. Five different running backs have seven or more carries so far with leading rusher Zamir White averaging 10 carries a game. So you have a RBBC here, and the offensive line is failing to create space for the runners as they rank 95th in Line Yards. I’ve been surprised before, as last week indicated with Bennett, but I’ll be fading Georgia backs this week in a tough matchup. White, Kendall Milton and James Cook will all factor in.
Kirby Smart mentioned this week to the media that Kearis Jackson is taking steps in practice to re-enter the starting lineup in the slot as he doesn’t have a single target all year. Ladd McConkey has seen the majority of the playing time inside, and the 247 beat writer expects that to be the case again this week, but could see Jackson dip into those reps. McConkey has just four targets on 25 routes run. Jermaine Burton and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint start outside, but combined for just four targets last week. FR tight end Brock Bowers has been the best pass-catching option for the Dawgs, catching all nine of his targets, and found the end-zone twice vs. UAB. Pricing for Bowers seems extremely low at $3,800 for someone who is tied for the team lead in targets.
Points have to come from somewhere here with an implied total 39, I’m just truly not sure where outside of White, Burton and Bowers who are all priced too high for my tastes. South Carolina’s ability to limit the big play has me steering clear of the low-volume passing offense so maybe Zamir White is of more interest.
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