Middle Tennessee @ Charlotte
Point-Spread: Char -3
O/U Total: 56
Weather: 71 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Middle Tennessee:
Chase Cunningham takes over as the QB1 for Bailey Hockman who decided to step away from football, and has performed well in spot-duty this season, completing 19-of-30 passes for 259 yards and three touchdowns. Cunningham played the entire second half against UTSA, leading the Blue Raiders on two scoring drives. Because of how the run game has struggled, MTSU has had to take to the air more this season than they’d like under new OC Brent Dearmon, averaging around 32 passing attempts per, which feasibly will all go to Cunningham now as the full-time starter, where as they did split some previously with Hockman. Charlotte ranks 10th nationally, allowing just 139 yards per game through the air, but played two anemic passing attacks in Gardner-Webb and Georgia State. Advanced metrics would suggest we probably avoid Cunningham here, though, as the 49ers are 29th in Pass Play Success Rate and 24th in Defensive Points Per Opportunity.
What’s the saying…unstoppable force vs. immovable object? In this case, it would be stoppable force vs. movable object with the Middle Tennessee ground game taking on the Charlotte rush defense. MTSU is averaging just 1.79 yards per carry on the year where the 49ers have allowed nearly 800 rushing yards in three games. Amir Rasul is min priced and has led all running backs in snaps, though it’s been primarily a split between him and Martell Pettaway who is $200 more. Not saying go crazy with a team that averages just 57 yards a game on the ground, but at $3k against this porous run defense, you’d think Rasul (or Pettaway) could hit value.
You’re looking at a 6-7 man rotation at wide receiver every week and their hasn’t been a ton of consistency here either with some players in and out of the lineup due to injury. Game-week depth chart for MTSU indicates your three starters Friday will be Izaiah Gathings, Jarrin Pierce and DJ England-Chisolm which coincides with last week’s target data vs. UTSA as those three combined for six catches on 15 targets. 6-foot-5 senior Jimmy Marshall has also been a constant factor throughout the year with 111 yards receiving in Week 2 and a touchdown last weekend. Those are your four primaries, and while a bad matchup against a tough Charlotte secondary, all four players are so inexpensive that they must be considered.
Charlotte:
Chris Reynolds has cooled off since his opening performance against Duke, throwing just two touchdowns in the last two games and seeing his completion percentage drop each week. Averaging right around seven attempts per game on the ground with two rushing scores, but had just 14 yards on eight carries last week. Looking at the advanced stats for the Middle Tennessee defense, I see a lot of red – aka bad matchup. 5th in Defensive Havoc with three interceptions and five fumble recoveries already, and 13th in Defensive Points Per Opportunity. The Raiders also rank inside the top 50 nationally in both Rush/Pass Play Success Rate. Reynolds is cheap enough to consider, but his downward trends of late and the matchup probably make it low exposure for me.
The 49ers have been strong on the ground thus far, topping 100 rushing yards as a team in every game, including 306 yards against Gardner-Webb. You never want to hear the words “team effort” though, as two players have logged at least 10 attempts in every game with no single rusher topping 75 yards in a contest. Shadrick Byrd has been the one constant in the group with double-digit attempts in every game, and Calvin Camp looks to be the RB2 with the second-most carries for Charlotte in the two games that were competitive. If looking for GPP upside, this isn’t the play with Middle Tennessee being 34th in Defensive Rush Play Success and Charlotte just 83rd in Line Yards.
Realistically we have just two options in the Charlotte passing game with makes things simple as Victor Tucker and Grant Dubose account for 51 percent of the team’s total target share. Both had eight targets each last week. Cameron Dollar is listed as the third starter but has just a single target in the last two games. Despite being listed second on the depth chart, tight end Taylor Thompson does have seven catches on 10 targets with heavy snap counts in every game.
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