Michigan @ Wisconsin
Point-Spread: Wisc -2
O/U Total: 43.5
Weather: 70 degrees / 4% rain / 9 mph winds
Michigan:
This Michigan fan is going full-team fade with the Wolverines on Saturday as I’m not sure how this offense will generate points. After averaging 350 yards per game rushing through the first three weeks, Michigan finally took on an opponent that loaded the box in Rutgers, forcing quarterback Cade McNamara to beat them. Results weren’t pretty as the Wolverines rushed for just 112 yards total and nearly blew a 17-point lead late in the fourth quarter. McNamara hasn’t proven yet this season he can be a proficient passer when asked to throw more than 15 attempts in a game, which he will have to on Saturday. Blake Corum is the best skill position player on the Michigan offense, but way too expensive at $7,600 facing the No. 1 rush defense in the country. Expect Michigan to find more creative ways to get him the football this week after the coaching staff was criticized for their game plan against Rutgers, but this isn’t the spot. Hassan Haskins rushed for two TDs last week, but had a season-low 3.4 yards per carry average and is never used in the passing game. Pass-catching priorities remain the same here with Cornelius Johnson > Daylen Baldwin > Mike Sainristil > Erick All. Anyone else is a crapshoot.
Wisconsin:
Maybe this is the Michigan bias in me, but our projections like Chez Mellusi a lot more than I do this week as he’s projected to top 100 rushing yards and over a touchdown. The Wolverines have allowed over four yards a carry in each of the last two games, but this Wisconsin ground game has struggled mightily against both Penn State and Notre Dame, averaging less than 3.1 yards a carry vs. both teams, and Michigan’s defense is at that level, if not better. Don’t really think Graham Mertz is even under consideration here at $5,200. Over the last eight games, Mertz has thrown just three touchdowns to 12 interceptions and has not looked comfortable in the pocket against high-level opponents like Notre Dame. Turnovers aren’t the only problem, either, as Mertz missed at least two throws against the Irish that would have gone for touchdowns had he connected on them. He’ll have another challenge this week against a Michigan secondary that is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete just 55 percent of their throws and for 172 yards per game through the air.
While we strongly dislike Mertz, using the site’s projections, some of the WRs are popping up as possible options this week given some of Wisconsin’s struggles on the ground. Danny Davis hasn’t found the end-zone yet but is averaging five catches and over seven targets in three games played. Kendric Pryor had the huge performance against Notre Dame with 6-69-1 on 14 targets. After a strong fall camp, some thought the Chimere Dike would be a breakout player this season. He’s been quiet with four catches for 39 yards and one rushing attempt for 10 yards. His snap counts decreased by game. He played 51 against Penn State, 40 against Eastern Michigan and just 21 against Notre Dame. Tight end Jake Ferguson has been practically non-existent since the opener with six targets in the last two games. Opposing TEs are averaging just 3.5 FPPG against the Wolverines this season.
Ole Miss @ Alabama
Point-Spread: Ala -14.5
O/U Total: 79.5
Weather: 83 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Ole Miss:
This shouldn’t be earth-shattering news when I say that I am no DFS professional so strategy and game theory in matchups like this are out of my expertise, but I do know our projections love the Ole Miss offense this week with Matt Corral being the highest-ranked QB in all of CFF and this is a game script that should favor the Rebels’ passing game as a 14.5-point dog. Vegas does as well with an implied total of 32.5. While Corral can do plenty with his legs, as he showed against Tulane with four rushing touchdowns, I don’t think we play him naked this week so we must stack. The antithesis of Max Duggan this week – either stack Corral or don’t play at all.
Good news there is we have plenty of clarity at wide receiver with Dontario Drummond, Jonathan Mingo and Braylon Sanders being the clear-cut Top 3 with no other wideouts really in the mix – 65 percent of the target share. Sanders is going to be popular at $4,800, though he is the clear third option of the ground. Did have a season-high 4-74-1 on five targets against Tulane. Mingo is also going to be a popular GPP play at just $6,100 considering back-to-back 30-point performances and his target distribution is near even with that of Drummond’s over the last two games. I was under the belief that the slot receiver didn’t matter much in Jeff Lebby’s system looking back at his history, but Drummond is disproving that notion as the clear WR1 with at least nine targets in all three games. His salary will steer folks away, which makes him a more attractive play for larger GPPs.
I don’t love Jerrion Ealy this week, taking on the Alabama front seven that is 26th in Defensive Rush Play Success Rate, but I would be remissed if I didn’t mention that he did rush for 103 yards and two TDs last season against the Tide. Similar to Drummond, I think Ealy is a solid GPP play with low ownership given that he only receives around 50 percent of the rushing volume with both Henry Parrish and Snoop Conner eating into the workload. Conner does have three rushing TDs in three games.
Alabama:
Sounds as though Brian Robinson Jr. will be a go this week after not playing against Southern Miss with a rib injury. How healthy is he truly? Jase McClellan started in Robinson’s place against Southern Miss, recording 97 yards on 12 carries while pulling in a 9-yard touchdown reception. Fellow sophomore back Roydell Williams led Alabama on the ground, rushing for 110 yards and a score on 11 carries. Don’t discount McClellan’s ability as a pass-catcher here either with a receiving touchdown in each of the last three games. The Ole Miss run defense has been vastly improved through the early going, allowing 100 yards less than they did a year ago. The Bama offensive line hasn’t been as good to date, ranking 65th in line yards, but beat writers on 247 are projecting the Tide have another 200-yard rushing game as a team on the ground this weekend.
Is Bryce Young worth his $10,000 price tag this weekend? Game script potentially doesn’t favor him as two-TD favorites, and if Corral reverts back to his old ways of turning the ball over, maybe this game gets out of hand? Conjecture. Young has yet to use his legs much this season with negative yardage on the ground so we likely need 300+ yards and four TDs to match that salary. Rebels are allowing just 208 yards per game through the air so far, and 58th in Pass Play Success Rate. Jameson Williams did it all last week with an 81-yard receiving touchdown and two return scores. His season-long target numbers are right on par with John Metchie, and is the higher-upside play of the two with an aDOT of 16.5 compared to just 5.9 with Metchie. We are due for a breakout from Metchie at some point, though, (we said that all last year) and he does have twice as many receptions as Williams does this season so volume isn’t the issue. Alabama had two 100-yard receivers the last time these two team’s met and the target disparity between Metchie/Williams and everyone else could mean a repeat performance. At $3,600, Jahleel Billingsley will be the highest-owned player on the slate of options under $4k. Based on the play-by-play data, he is seemingly out of the doghouse after most of his work came on the first half last week with 6-105-1 on six targets. Cameron Latu recorded two receiving TDs for the second time this year against Southern Miss. Slade Bolden is…a JAG…but a decent punt option at $3,900 in this sort of game environment.
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