Mississippi State @ Auburn
Point-Spread: Aub -5.5
O/U Total: 50
Weather: 56 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Mississippi State:
What a bland SEC game to start of this writeup – though I’d argue most games in that conference don’t move the needle in terms of excitement for fantasy purposes. Funny to think now that there was a legitimate quarterback competition this past offseason for Mississippi State with some thinking that Will Rogers could potentially lose his grip on the starting job. The sophomore quarterback has played some outstanding football this season, completing 75 percent of his passes with 23 touchdowns and just eight interceptions. Rogers ranks second in the country, averaging 368 yards per game through the air and has now thrown four touchdowns in two of the last three games. Against Arkansas last week, we also saw Rogers push the ball downfield a bit more than he’s accustomed to with an aDOT (average depth of target) at 7.6 yards which was his highest mark of the season. Auburn is 57th in the country at defending the pass, but have not allowed a single passing touchdown in the last two weeks. Love the fantasy floor that Rogers provides, as he’s hit the 300-yard bonus in all but one game this season, and topped 30 fantasy points in five of the last seven weeks.
As has been the case for years under Mike Leach, his team ranks dead last in the country in run play percentage on offense at a 27.5% clip, but his running backs are featured heavily in the passing game. After leading the team in receptions, a year ago, sophomore Jo’Quavious Marks is second in both targets (70) and catches (63). Marks continues to split snaps with backup Dillon Johnson, but we aren’t seeing a third option in the mix anymore like we did earlier this season. Similar to Rogers, Marks provides us with a floor, averaging 19.2 FPPG and double-digit fantasy points in all but one game this season.
Former California transfer Makai Polk has been a welcomed addition to the receiving corps, tied for seventh in the country with 71 catches, but his production has tailed off a bit with just 18 receptions in the last three games. Assume he’ll have low ownership in GPPs at $7,600. The biggest development within the MSU receiving corps is the emergence of FR Rara Thomas who is starting ahead of Malik Heath, now with four touchdowns in the last three games. As with any Mike Leach offense, you’re going to see a rotation of the outside guys, so Thomas won’t play more than 50 percent of the snaps, and will rotate with Heath and Lideatrick Griffin. Jaden Walley still isn’t producing like he was a year ago, but has been targeted at least five times in the last five games, and is second in snaps. Austin Williams is third in snaps and has converted on 90.2 percent of his targets (41) this season. I don’t feel the need to jam any MSU receivers in my lineups given how frequently they are rotated in and out of the lineup.
Auburn:
Nothing went right offensively last week against the Aggies, as Auburn was held to a season-low three points and 226 yards of total offense. Normally one of the better teams in the SEC at third down efficiency, the Tigers were just 4-of-16 on the day, and converted just one of three attempts on fourth down. The lone positive on offense for Auburn was the play of sophomore running back Tank Bigsby who rushed for 69 yards on 15 attempts (4.6 YPC) and has looked healthy the last two weeks following the bye after not being 100 percent earlier in the year. Normally stout against the run, fielding a Top 10 defense for much of the year, Mississippi State was gashed last week by Arkansas for a season-high 202 yards and two scores on the ground. I won’t have a ton of exposure to Bigsby this week against the Bulldogs run D, but I can rationalize rostering him at just $5,800 given the way he’s looked coming out of the bye week, averaging 22 touches over the last two games.
Quarterback Bo Nix had been playing some of his best ball of the season leading up to last Saturday, completing over 70 percent of his throws against Arkansas and Ole Miss, but was harassed all game long vs. A&M, sacked four times en route to one of his worst performances of the season. Nix should have more time to throw this week with an experienced offensive line ahead of him, as the Bulldogs are just 12th out of 14 SEC teams in sacks (19.0). Nix would also be aided with better performances out of his wide receivers this week as that group combined for just five receptions against the Aggies. Tight ends and running backs accounted for 15 of the 20 catches. So, the ultimate question. Is Nix worth it at $6,100 as a SFlex option? My initial lean is yes, thinking last week was just a bad performance on the road against a superior defense. MSU is allowing 23.1 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season, and have been beaten by some marginal QBs like Austin Kendall (37 fantasy points) and Max Johnson (37 fantasy points).
West Virginia @ Kansas State
Point-Spread: KSU -6
O/U Total: 47
Weather: 46 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
West Virginia:
Spread has jumped from -5.5 to -6.5 in favor of the Wildcats and I don’t have a lot of confidence with any aspect of this West Virginia offense right now, so this is probably an all-out fade for me. Better matchup this week than last for Leddie Brown who rushed for just 24 yards on 10 carries against Oklahoma State, but this Kansas State run defense is no slouch. Under four yards a carry allowed in the last two weeks, and just 18.3 FPPG for opposing RB1s on the season. Lines up almost to a tee with his 18.4 projection for this week. Usage in the passing game remains the same for Brown – 25 receptions on 34 targets – and we do have a price drop on DK at $6,100. The Wildcats are 59th in Rush Play Success rate this season so this is not a Georgia-level defense against the run. I’m just not sure I see the upside here with Leddie with an implied total of 20.5.
“Never start Jarret Doege” is typically my mantra in CFB DFS and it applies again this week. Kansas State has allowed under 200 passing yards in each of the last three games with just a single passing touchdown given up. Yes, Doege is cheap and yes, Doege leads the Big 12 in passing (242 YPG). Don’t care. If somehow we get word that Garrett Greene is the starter, maybe we look to him as a former 3-star recruit providing the same spark that Chandler Morris did TCU last weekend. Not sure that happens yet. WV receivers are basically Oregon receivers where you’ll see targets spread out evenly amongst five different options between Bryce Ford-Wheaton, Sam James, Winston Wright, Sean Ryan and Reese Smith. If Doege somehow finds success through the air this week, strong lean towards BFW or Wright if choosing from that quintet. Isaiah Esdale is out for the season.
Kansas State:
Love Deuce Vaughn, but I will not be rostering him this week in my lineups as the highest-priced RB of the slate. West Virginia has underperformed defensively, but are still an above average group when it comes to stopping the run, ranking 50th in Rush Play Success Rate, are allowing just 17.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s, and coming off a performance where the Mountaineers limited Jaylen Warren to just 78 yards on the ground. We know Vaughn racks up the fantasy points in multiple ways, but tough to count on that level of production as a receiver on a weekly basis. Just a situation with pricing and other available running backs at lower salaries that I don’t see us having a ton of exposure this week. Skylar Thompson is interesting this week at $6,100 because his passing attempts are up at 22.4, and is facing a WV secondary that is having all sorts of issues on the backend, allowing 25.7 FPPG and a 65.0 completion rate to QB1s this season. The trouble is we aren’t seeing Thompson run the ball as much as he has in year’s past, averaging just four attempts per game. With a 17-point projection this week at his price-point, I think we can sprinkle Thompson in some lineups, but I don’t see any upside here if he’s not scoring touchdowns on the ground.
Vaughn soaks up a lot of the targets in the passing game, so there is rarely a ton of interest in the KSU receivers. I will say that Malik Knowles at $4,900 makes for a decent play in larger GPPs as someone who will have next to nothing in terms of ownership. Pro Football Focus instituted a new feature on their site looking at specific matchups between offensive and defensive players. And the cornerback lining up opposite Knowles this week has the lowest PFF grade of any starting defender for the Mountaineers. That doesn’t guarantee projection, as Knowles has been targeted just seven times in the last three games, but did find the end-zone last week against Kansas. Slot man Phillip Brooks is the only other noteworthy KSU receiver, but he didn’t have a single target last week vs. the Jayhawks.
Oklahoma @ Baylor
Point-Spread: Okla -5.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Weather: 59 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Oklahoma:
Caleb Williams was well worth the price of admission two weeks ago against Texas Tech at home, throwing six touchdowns at $10k in the rout of the Red Raiders? Worth spending up again at the same price? The only way I can rationalize Williams here is in a game stack with these two teams, but the o/u is already down a point to 62 this week. Where you can make the argument for Williams is he’s facing a secondary that is trending in the wrong direction right now. Still just 10 passing TDs allowed on the year, but are allowing nearly a 70 percent completion rate over the last four games and are struggling mightily to defend the big play. That increases my interest in Marvin Mims who is finally seeing the snap counts a player of his stature deserves, and his aDOT of 17.2 means he’ll be testing these vulnerabilities in the Baylor secondary. After scoring two TDs against Tech, though, he’s priced up at $6,400 over Jadon Haselwood for the first time in a while. Freshman Mario Williams came back from injury with a vengeance, topping 100 yards with a touchdown on six targets against Tech, and the Sooners could get Mike Woods back from injury. With all four back and healthy, might we see more of the rotation that infuriated us earlier in the year?
Projections do not like Kennedy Brooks this week, especially at his $7,700 price tag. The Bears are limiting opponents to under four yards a carry in the last five games, and under three yards a carry three times in that span. RB1s are averaging just 16.5 FPPG against Baylor this season and the Bears are 20th in Rush Play Explosiveness on the year so you’ll have to grind it out on the ground. While the projections don’t love Brooks this week, I have a feeling its due to the Sooners practically avoiding the running game against Texas Tech so there is some recency bias built in. The game prior against Kansas, we saw Brooks maintain his healthy volume advantage over Eric Gray so I don’t think there is anything to worry about from that standpoint.
Baylor:
Credit to friend of the site, Nate Marchese (@CFFNate), for posting some stats this week about opposing offenses facing the Oklahoma secondary. Last four WR1s faced this year – Erik Ezukanma, Xavier Worthy, Quentin Johnston and Kwame Lassiter – averaged around 21 fantasy points (combined) more against Oklahoma than the other opponents faced this season. In total, WR1s are averaging 24.5 FPPG this season against the Sooner, which should bode well for Tyquan Thornton coming off one of his best performances of the year with 5-121-2 on eight targets vs. TCU last weekend. We’ve seen it flip-flopped with production at times between Thornton and R.J. Sneed as the primary receiver, but this looks to be a matchup that favors the WR1 here. If looking at PFF, both outside cornerbacks grade out poorly this season, and Sneed looking to be matched up with the lowest of the trio in Jaden Davis, so maybe both are in play this week. WR2s are averaging around 14.5 FPPG against the Sooners.
If we like both of the receivers this week, we must like Gerry Bohanon right? Projections certainly do at 25.4 points with a very attainable price-point of $7,200. Biggest concern here is Bohanon’s play of late, looking like the erratic prospect that was in a QB battle this offseason, throwing five interceptions in the last three games. Still, tough to ignore Bohanon facing the 114th ranked pass defense in the country and a team allowing 30.7 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season. We absolutely want a piece of the Baylor passing game in our lineups this week.
The Baylor offensive line is still very good, but we continue to see the advanced stats trending downward with this group in Big 12 play. Now 49th in Power Success and 45th in Stuff Rate. Still top 10 in Line Yards and 13th in Rush Play Success Rate, but Baylor was in the top five in all four categories after the first month of the season. That’s part of why we didn’t see Abram Smith run roughshod over the TCU defense last week, though he was still solid with 125 yards on 18 carries. Just a case of bad luck not finding the end-zone, being vultured by backup Trestan Ebner. I don’t view either as a must-play this week against an Oklahoma defense that has generally been solid against the run all year, ranking third in the Big 12 and giving up under 3.5 yards per carry on the year.
UCF @ SMU
Point-Spread: SMU -7
O/U Total: 61
Weather: 57 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
UCF:
I was all in on Mikey Keene last week on FanDuel, facing a Tulane defense that had given up the most fantasy points in the country to opposing QBs. AND Keene was coming off a five-touchdown performance, so confidence had to be sky-high. It was far from the outcome we wanted, scoring just 14.1 fantasy points, but Keene continues to show signs of progression, completing 70 percent of his passes for the second straight week with a pair of touchdowns. Here we are again this week with another favorable matchup as SMU is allowing 30.3 FPPG to opposing QBs this season and are 81st in Pass Success Rate and 118th in Pass Play Explosiveness. Should see fairly low ownership at $6,400 with a couple options behind him that DFS players will flock to at a lower pricing, but the projections don’t love Keene at just 17.2 fantasy points because he offers nothing on the ground.
Keene should have the benefit of Jaylon Robinson being back in the lineup as Gus Malzahn confirmed he was practicing and close to returning last week. “Good chance he’ll be on the field playing and ready to go” per Malzahn. Don’t think I’ll be going there this week at $5,900, but I’ll be curious to see how he looks and performs for games moving forward. UCF has struggled mightily to find a third option behind Ryan O’Keefe and Brandon Johnson, so this addition helps the passing offense as a whole. Looking back at the first few weeks when Robinson was healthy, targets were spread relatively evenly across the board between the three, so I think we’ll touch down the projections a bit for both Johnson and O’Keefe.
Seeing a 2-1 split in the UCF backfield between Isaiah Bowser and Johnny Richardson, and this isn’t a great matchup as SMU is second in the AAC in run defense, and 23rd in Rush Play Success Rate nationally. RB1s averaging just 14.6 FPPG this season vs. the Mustangs.
SMU:
What in the world happened to the SMU offense last week? I had Tanner Mordecai everywhere because of the consistency and high upside / floor combination that he provides week in, week out, but the Mustangs just fell flat against Memphis. Now we have head coach Sonny Dykes saying that we’re at the point in the season where they don’t have to worry about burning the redshirt for prized FR Preston Stone and he could see some playing time in designed plays. SMU still has plenty to play for this season and Mordecai has done enough to where this shouldn’t be a major concern, but that’s now two-straight losses for the Mustangs so maybe Dykes is looking to mix things up a bit? Mordecai still projects well this week at 27.2 fantasy points, but will face a pass defense that is trending upwards at the moment. Just three passing touchdowns given up in the last six games, and held both Temple and Tulane to under 170 yards in the air. 18.3 FPPG allowed to opposing QB1s this season by the Knights.
I wouldn’t count on Ulysses Bentley this week as Dykes confirmed they rushed him back from injury against Houston before he re-tweaked his ankle. Tre Siggers handled the bulk of the workload against Memphis with 56 yards on 12 carries, but didn’t come close to paying off his $6,100 salary as SMU was trailing the entire game. I won’t be rostering him even at $5,600 as I don’t see the upside here. Backup Tyler Lavine found the end-zone last week and is a bigger back so he could realistically steal some goal-line work. SMU remains a pass-first offense, throwing it 54 percent of the time, and the UCF run defense has allowed under four yards a carry the last three weeks. Knights are 92nd in Rush Play Success Rate so I don’t necessarily think SMU will struggle running the ball, but volume isn’t there for Siggers, averaging just 13 att/g.
I’ve covered the WRs extensively this season already so there really isn’t much more to add. Danny Gray is WR1 and always has been, but based on salaries, you can make the argument for both Rashee Rice and Reggie Roberson as they essentially split targets evenly amongst the three. Gray just seems to do more with less. UCF allowed 24 fantasy points to Marshon Ford earlier in the year, but haven’t allowed another tight end to top double-digit fantasy points this season. Grant Calcaterra averages a little over five targets a game this season.
Rutgers @ Indiana
Point-Spread: Ind -7
O/U Total: 42.5
Weather: 40 degrees / 3% rain / 10 mph winds
Rutgers:
I honestly thought this game total would be like 32 given all the injuries on both teams and how inept the offenses have been this season. Maybe some returnees from injury add some juice here. Noah Vedral said he is planning on playing this week, but he’s not in the realm of consideration here even at $5,300. Even when he was 100 percent healthy, he rarely paid off his salary, averaging just 12.6 FPPG. Now, the interesting part here is that Indiana is susceptible through the air which makes the wide receivers viable options. Hoosiers are 97th in Pass Play Success Rate and giving up around 19 FPPG to opposing WR1s this season. Bo Melton in play then at $5k? Volume is there with 30 targets in the last three games alone. I think we can even look towards someone like Shameen Jones at $3,100 as 30 of his 46 total targets have come in the last four games alone. As a touchdown underdog, the game script favors the Rutgers receivers here, and while we have no interest in Vedral, it’s a positive for Melton / Jones if he plays. Don’t even bother with the Rutgers backfield as we’re seeing a three-way split and Indiana thrives at stopping the run.
Indiana:
Lots to digest here for the Indiana offense, which is unfortunate because we realistically should just fade the group that has scored 15 points or less in four of the last five games and one of the biggest disappointments in the country. Interesting dilemma for head coach Tom Allen this week as to who starts at quarterback. Michael Penix Jr. and Jack Tuttle are back at practice this week. Donaven McCulley looked good in the Maryland contest, but was clearly outmatched last week on the road against Michigan. McCulley is the future of the program, for better or worse, because neither Penix nor Tuttle are any good. But McCulley can play in just one more game before his redshirt gets burned. We likely won’t find out until Saturday morning who gets the nod here. Where this decision also comes into play is at receiver because Penix Jr. or Tuttle would boost the values for the Indiana pass-catchers, mainly WR1 Ty Fryfogle and Peyton Hendershot who are both $4,600. When the passing game has a pulse, Fryfogle will get peppered with targets, averaging over 10 per game through the first six weeks. Hendershot has arguably been the focal point of the Indiana passing game this season with at least five targets in all but one game. I’d rather play these two with Penix/Tuttle as opposed to McCulley so the QB decision looms large here.
Per 247Sports, Stephen Carr is “likely out” vs. Rutgers, leaving the Indiana backfield in the hands of two walk-ons with Chris Childers and Davion Ervin-Poindexter. Rutgers is 44th in Rush Play Success Rate, giving up just 16.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season so I’m not really interested in either player. Indiana doesn’t run block all that well either, ranking 96th in Rush Play Success Rate and 119th in Line Yards. I know Rutgers is second to last in the Big Ten in rush defense, but that consists of a schedule featuring Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State and Indiana. Marginal running games like Northwestern and Illinois haven’t done much against the Knights.
Michigan @ Penn State
Point-Spread: Mich -1.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Weather: 41 degrees / 38% rain / 13 mph winds
Michigan:
I find it interesting that this line has swung in favor of the Wolverines this week despite struggling to find wins at Penn State in recent years. Big storyline to monitor is in the backfield where Blake Corum is questionable this week, and I’ve read he could be between 50 and 75 percent health. What makes this even more interesting is RB3 Donovan Edwards remains out and behind that would be an unproven 3-star freshman. So, 30 touches for Hassan Haskins on Saturday? No, the matchup isn’t great but Penn State isn’t this dominant run defense. Holding Maryland to 48 yards on the ground isn’t some amazing accomplishment. RB1s are averaging 17.5 FPPG against the Nittany Lions and are 48th in Rush Play Success Rate. Good, but not dominant. Michigan’s offensive line has fallen back a bit since the start of the year, now ranking 59th in Line Yards, but this is still a formidable group that should be able to generate some push against the PSU defensive front. If Corum and Edwards are out, guaranteed touches for Haskins on Saturday.
New WR1 Andrel Anthony is also questionable this week as he left the game against Indiana. Harbaugh appeared on local radio saying both he and Corum have a chance to play this week, stating some have a “real good chance” but didn’t specify who that was. His availability does have a direct effect on Cornelius Johnson who caught five passes for 108 yards on eight targets with Anthony out for most of last week. Either Roman Wilson or Daylen Baldwin would start in Anthony’s place should he be out. We should also monitor if Erick All will be available Saturday as he did not play against Indiana after his career day against MSU with 10-98-0 on 10 targets. Luke Schoonmaker started in his place last week and had two receiving touchdowns. I mention this increased usage of the Michigan tight ends because PSU is allowing 10.0 FPPG this season to opposing TE1s. Both are sub-$4k. I want no part of Cade McNamara, even at $5,300, against this secondary that is 7th in PFF coverage grades and allowing just 12.0 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks.
Penn St:
Not much of a price bump this week for Sean Clifford after throwing for 363 yards and three touchdowns last week on the road at Maryland. With a 20-point projection this week, I think Clifford is in play again at $5,800, but I have some concerns. We aren’t seeing Clifford get anything done on the ground with negative yardage in the last three games. Michigan’s talented DE duo of Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo are going to wreak havoc in that backfield all game long. The Wolverines are allowing just 15.7 FPPG to opposing QBs this season – 9th best mark in the country – and are 26th in Pass Play Success Rate. Lastly, weather won’t great with rain and wind expected. Working in favor of Clifford is the fact that Penn State can’t run the football AT ALL. Yes, the Wolverines were gashed by Kenneth Walker, but have been excellent at stopping the run outside of that game. Zero interest in the Penn State backfield.
Jahan Dotson is an absolute monster and one of just a handful target hogs at wide receiver in the country. Will I be spending up to $8,800 to roster him against this defense? Most likely not. Last year against Michigan: 3-30-0. In 2019: 1-37-0. In 2018: 2-29-0. Is that lack of success in the back of Dotson’s mind? Nobody knows but him, but he’s never been impactful against the Wolverines in three meetings. Michigan doesn’t have a dominant shutdown corner this year, but are solid on the outside between Vincent Gray and Gemon Green who both grade out well on PFF. If you think it’s a good matchup then for maybe Parker Washington in the slot? Think again. Michigan’s best defender in Daxton Hill will match up with him much of the day. He is cheap at $4,400 for someone that plays 70 percent of the team’s offensive snaps and has been targeted 23 times in the last three weeks. WR3 KeAndre Lambert-Smith is on the field just as much as the other two starting receivers, and has been targeted at least four times in every game this season.
Northwestern @ Wisconsin
Point-Spread: Wisc -24.5
O/U Total: 41
Weather: 40 degrees / 3% rain / 10 mph winds
Northwestern:
Nothing to see here with an 8.5 implied team total. Full-team fade.
Wisconsin:
Just a single play here for me in Braelon Allen who should now have the backfield to himself with Chez Mellusi out for the season. Northwestern remains dead last in the conference in rushing and allows over 24 FPPG this season to opposing RB1s. The other option, which would be a risk as all $3k players are, is newly-minted RB2 Julius Davis who assumes the backup role with both Mellusi and Isaac Guerendo out for the year. 40 carries a game were going to Allen/Mellusi so I would think at least 10 would now be attributed to Davis because I find it hard to believe the coaching staff will put 30 touches a game on a true freshman. Assuming we see a volume distribution like Allen – 22, Davis – 10, Mertz/Fullbacks – 8.
Georgia @ Tennessee
Point-Spread: UGA -20
O/U Total: 56
Weather: 48 degrees / 2% rain / 6 mph winds
Georgia:
This has the feel of a Zamir White week. Regardless of how much success Georgia has on defense this week, we know Tennessee under Josh Heupel is going to play fast. Kirby Smart has mentioned this week that’s his biggest concern with the UT offense is the pace they play at, and keeping his defense fresh is priority numero uno. That means getting the running game back on track this week after they were underwhelming against Missouri, rushing for just 168 yards on 33 carries. Averaging 5.1 YPC is a disappointing statistic for the No. 1 team in the country taking on the worst run defense. Reading quotes from some of the Georgia players this week, sounds as though this was the emphasis in practice. With regards to White, we know the floor. He’s found the end-zone at least one time in each of the last seven games. Upside is the issue as UGA will rotate in both James Cook and Kenny McIntosh as they did last week, and even more so in blowout settings. Tennessee keeping this game close would be the best scenario if planning on rostering White.
Is this the week to get Brock Bowers in your lineups? The FR tight end remains our top projected pass-catcher for the Dawgs, and Tennessee has really struggled defending the position this season, allowing 9.3 FPPG to opposing TE1s. Trust me, I get it. It’s so difficult rostering a tight end at $5,800 on a team that spreads the ball out like Georgia does. But this week dictates we give Bowers a look. The fact that Bowers has been quiet the last two weeks from a production standpoint entices me even more to get him in a lineup or two. The other notable storyline from the passing game is WR1 Jermaine Burton looking healthy for the first time in weeks, snagging three passes for 76 yards and a touchdown against Missouri. Given his lack of production this season, I’m stunned he’s listed at $5,200 already, meaning I’ll likely fade here. With Burton in the lineup, the top three at receiver looks set with Adonai Mitchell and Ladd McConkey in the starting lineup, combining for 50 percent of the targets last week that went to UGA pass-catchers.
UGA may rank 59th in pass yards per game, but are third in the country in pass efficiency. Kudos to former walk-on Stetson Bennett for how he’s performed given the pressure of captaining the No. 1 team in the country, combined with all the injuries the Bulldogs have suffered at receiver. GPP play here, as I think Bennett will go under-owned at $7,500 with a plethora of options at lower salaries. I do believe this is a game in which Georgia will try and get the run game going to keep their defense fresh as we mentioned above, but would be remiss if I didn’t also mention that Tennessee is allowing 31.3 FPPG to opposing QBs this season.
Tennessee:
We’ve seen Tennessee have success on offense this season against a superior team in Alabama already, but facing the Georgia defense is a different kind of adventure. Lets get the running game out of the way first – no chance we start either Jabari Small or Tiyon Evans against the No. 2 rush defense in the country. FWIW – sounds like it might be just Small in the backfield Saturday as Evans re-injured his ankle. Georgia has allowed the second fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs in the country. Running QBs like Hendon Hooker haven’t had much success either against the Dawgs. KJ Jefferson and Emory Jones combined for just 27 yards on the ground. If you’re thinking Hooker can succeed through the air, I’d reconsider as UGA might be better defending the pass. Bulldogs are second in the nation, allowing 149.6 YPG through the air and the fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs in all of college football. Hooker is playing some of the best football of his career, but I can’t see a path to success here. Is there a chance this UGA secondary has a lapse in concentration and allows a big play? UT is near the top of the country in explosive pass plays this season with 10 of 40 yards or more and 20 plays of 30+ yards. The trio of Velus Jones Jr., Cedric Tillman and JaVonta Payton dominated the snap counts last week against Kentucky, accounting for 16 of the 19 targets that went to Tennessee pass-catchers and each found the end-zone once. Is someone like Payton worth the risk at $3,900 as he’s scored at least once in six of the last seven games?
Miami @ Florida State
Point-Spread: Mia -2.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Weather: 65 degrees / 1% rain / 8 mph winds
Miami:
Initially I wanted to be all in on this Miami offense, and still might be, but the advanced metrics do like the Florida State defense quite a bit. 40th in Pass Play Success Rate and 25th in Rush Play Success Rate. The Seminoles are also getting after the quarterback of late, tied for 27th in the country with 25 sacks – 10 of which coming in the last three games alone. That makes me tentative on Tyler Van Dyke this week, who does come in with a healthy projection of over 25 fantasy points. TVD has been one of the best QBs in the country over the last three games, completing over 70 percent of his passes with 10 touchdowns and just one interception in that span, but this will be a challenge on the road against an in-state rival. Working in the favor of TVD – Florida State is allowing 31 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Didn’t expect Jaylan Knighton to become a workhorse because of his slighter build, but I’ve been dead wrong there, as Rooster is averaging 146 yards and 23 touches per game over the last four weeks. His big-play ability is what sets him apart from some of the other backs on the slate with three touchdowns of at least 40 yards in that span. As we noted above, it’s not a bad Florida State run D, giving up under four yards a carry this season and allowing just 16.0 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Even if Knighton is limited on the ground, I still think he can find a way to reach value with his ability as a pass-catcher with 13 receptions on 16 targets in five games.
While FSU’s pass defense is average overall, they’ve been prone to allowing the big play, ranking 99th in Pass Play Explosiveness. That should help favor Charleston Rambo in Saturday’s matchup as he’s been one of the most productive receivers in the country of late, with 431 receiving yards and three TDs during this 3-game win streak. Rambo has caught 5-of-7 deep ball opportunities in that span, and is averaging over nine targets per game in the last five weeks. WR2 Keyshawn Smith has come back to reality following his 15 targets vs. North Carolina in Week 7 with just 14 targets in the last three games, but has found the end-zone in each of the last two. He’s also a deep-play threat alongside Rambo, with an aDOT of 14.4 over the last month. Both WRs are viable options here. Slot-man Mike Harley continues to split time in the slot with Xavier Restrepo which diminishes his value, but has at least three receptions in nine of the 10 games played this season. Tight end Will Mallory, who just announced he is returning in 2022, has seen a bit of a resurgence of late with three catches in each of the last three weeks with a pair of touchdowns.
Florida State:
Jordan Travis is back in the saddle as QB1 this week with an intriguing matchup against a Miami defense that allows 30.5 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. We know what Travis can do with his legs, rushing for 100+ yards in Weeks 5 and 6 against Syracuse and North Carolina, and averaging 13.8 carries per game in that five-game span as the starter. Travis also has shown signs of progression as a passer this year, completing 63 percent of his throws for 11 touchdowns and just five interceptions. At least two touchdown passes for Travis in all four ACC games he’s played this year. Relatively inexpensive on DK at $6,900 but dirt cheap on FD so I’ll probably have more exposure there. Jashaun Corbin is completely out of the picture here at $7k as he’ll be splitting carries with backup Treshaun Ward and Travis. In those five games where Travis played extensive snaps, Corbin averaged 10.8 rushing attempts and 55 yards. I’d much rather play Ward here at $3,900 as he averaged around seven carries in that same span. Miami also struggles at limiting the big play via the pass, so at least one WR for Florida State will likely find the end-zone, we just don’t know who as the targets are spread out all over the place. Ontaria Wilson is consistently seeing the most snaps of the core four at receiver with Malik McClain, Keyshawn Helton and Andrew Parchment. And Wilson’s three TD receptions this season have all come from the arm of Travis. Interesting at $3,900.
Iowa State @ Texas Tech
Point-Spread: ISU -10.5
O/U Total: 58
Weather: 71 degrees / 0% rain / 14 mph winds
Iowa State:
The Iowa State offense doesn’t blow anyone away, ranked just fifth in the Big 12 in scoring (31.9 ppg) and fourth in total yards (433.6 ypg). But we know what to expect on a week-to-week basis from this group, and that consistency is part of the reason the Cyclones have won four of their last five. Brock Purdy continues to have a bounce-back year, completing 73 percent of his passes with 12 touchdowns. Since the benching against Iowa in Week 2, Purdy has thrown just one interception in the last seven games. Texas Tech is allowing 28.7 FPPG to opposing QBs this season and I think Purdy is definitely in play at his salary as the Raiders struggle to generate a ton of pressure with their front four and perform poorly in coverage even when playing prevent.
Breece Hall is not in the Heisman conversation that many felt he would be in leading up to the season, but remains one of the best running backs in college football, averaging 125 yards per game on the ground with six 100-yard rushing performances in the last seven games. Hall has found the end-zone in every single game to date. When Purdy looks to throw, Xavier Hutchinson and Charlie Kolar are usually on the receiving end, accounting for about 49 percent of the team’s total production. This should be a favorable matchup for the Cyclones against this Texas Tech defense no matter what method they use to move the football, as the Red Raiders are allowing 33 points per game and are in the bottom half of the conference at defending both the run and pass.
Texas Tech:
Amid all of the hoopla with the coaching hire, there is still a game to play on Saturday for the Red Raiders, and we don’t know yet who the starter will be at quarterback. Report from last night said that it will either be Donovan Smith or Tyler Shough getting the nod. According to the beat writer on 247Sports, he indicates that it is unlikely Shough will play as he hasn’t been medically available as of last week, so very little preparation time if he was just cleared. Smith replaced Henry Colombi against Oklahoma and saw his most extended action of the season, completing 17 of 22 passes for 191 yards and a touchdown. Smith’s size (6-5, 230) can offer a different dynamic to the Red Raiders’ offense with his legs, as he had been utilized in zone-read plays prior to his insertion into the starting lineup. Being at home with two weeks of game prep is good, but tough matchup for your first career start against one of the best defenses in the country. Opposing QBs are averaging just 19.1 FPPG against the Cyclones this season.
Iowa State has fallen behind Oklahoma State in numerous defensive categories but remain an elite unit that is second in the Big 12 in total defense (281.4 ypg), first in passing defense (179.3 ypg), and 11th nationally in run defense (102.1 ypg). With those numbers, count me out on the backfield with SaRodorick Thompson, Tahj Brooks and Xavier White splitting carries. PFF indicates Brooks got the start over Thompson last week and was on the field significantly more, so maybe he’s in play at $3,700. Could be a sign of what the Sonny Cumbie and the interim staff think of the backfield pecking order. Erik Ezukanma led Tech in targets vs. Oklahoma (9), finishing with 8-123-1. He’s really the only option for me in the passing game for the Raiders as his size/speed combination can match up with any DB on Iowa State, no matter how they rank. Kaylon Geiger split snaps with talented redshirt FR J.J. Sparkman against Oklahoma. Yes, Sparkman played more in garbage time when the game was decided, but never know Cumbie’s impressions of the two players have any influence as to why they split reps. No interest in slot-man Myles Price. Converted on 24 of 29 targets this year, but his aDOT of 7.9 means he has almost no upside.
Minnesota @ Iowa
Point-Spread: Iowa -4.5
O/U Total: 37
Weather: 39 degrees / 2% rain / 10 mph winds
Minnesota:
We don’t have a single Minnesota player projected to score more than 11 fantasy points this week. The only player I’m even slightly interested in here is Chris Autman-Bell at $4,100. We saw earlier in the year with David Bell that talented/athletic receivers can give the Iowa secondary some trouble, but I’m not sure we can trust Tanner Morgan to get CAB the football successfully. FWIW – head coach PJ Fleck stated on Tuesday that Autman-Bell should return this week after suffering an apparent concussion against the Illini. If Minnesota follows the same game script that opponents have utilized against this Iowa defense in games the Hawkeyes have either lost or been competitive in, Morgan should be throwing until his arm falls off (for better or worse). Northwestern attempted 44 passes. Purdue threw it 40 times. Penn State QBs threw it 46 times. If we get that volume from Morgan, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that one Minnesota receiver has a decent day production wise.
Iowa:
Truly nothing about this game is attractive from the Iowa side, even as a 5.5-point favorite. Out on the passing game with a backup quarterback starting in Alex Padilla. He can move around the pocket better than Spencer Petras, but he ain’t no Lamar Jackson back there. Tyler Goodson should be fed the rock, but are we spending $7,300 for a running back facing a Top 15 run defense in Minnesota? Gophers are allowing just 13.3 FPPG this season to opposing RB1s. If desperately wanting to play someone from Iowa, might I suggest talented FR Keagan Johnson at receiver for $3,900. Does have 16 targets in the last two games alone.
Purdue @ Ohio State
Point-Spread: OSU -21
O/U Total: 63.5
Weather: 41 degrees / 2% rain / 14 mph winds
Purdue:
There’s only been one matchup between Ohio State and Purdue with Jeff Brohm at the helm, with the Boilermakers winning by four touchdowns in 2018 in West Lafayette. Like Michigan State last week, this feels like a letdown spot for Purdue going on the road, facing a motivated Ohio State team that did not play up to their standards last week against Nebraska. QB Aidan O’Connell is very enticing given his $5,400 salary that has inexplicitly dropped $200 after throwing for 536 yards and three touchdowns last week against MSU? If we could put the GIF in this writeup of General Ackbar from Star Wars yelling “It’s a Trap”, I’d be tempted. Projections do like him a bit this week at 21 fantasy points and over 300 passing yards which would easily pay off his salary. I just caution slightly because the Ohio State pass defense is much improved since the beginning of the season, allowing just three TDs in the last three weeks through the air. 69th overall this year in Pass Play Success Rate.
Fade the running backs. Purdue will need to chuck it 50 times more than likely this week and we’re seeing a split backfield between King Doerue and Zander Horvath. If playing one, it would definitely be Horvath given the pricing as the split in snap counts wasn’t drastic and volume was near even with Horvath getting 10 carries and three receptions on three targets. Ohio State is allowing just 13.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season and 5th nationally in Rush Play Success Rate.
So looking at the receivers that have had success against the Buckeyes this season, I’ve noticed a trend. There’s been a mixture of those that have put up numbers between the primary outside receiver and the slot-man, but I’m noticing slot receivers have done well against this Buckeye secondary. Tulsa’s Josh Johnson had 28.9 fantasy points. Samori Toure last week had over 25 fantasy points. Penn State’s Parker Washington had 20 fantasy points. Aron Cruickshank had 19 fantasy points. That’s a trend, folks. Won’t always pan out, but do I like Jackson Anthrop a bit more now this week? You sure bet. Six catches on six targets with a touchdown in each of the last two weeks. David Bell – you know what you’re getting at this point. Double-digit targets in seven of the eight games played this season. Worth spending up to get him? Bell will be locked in a battle with a true freshman in Denzel Burke who has just a 67.1 PPF coverage grade. Brohm said that top tight end Payne Durham will see more game action this week but remains less than 100 percent. Backup Garrett Miller posted season-highs of 8-74-0 on nine targets.
Ohio State:
We’ve seen Ohio State so much on the slate that I’m running out of ideas to write about with the Buckeyes. At receiver, Garrett Wilson looks like he’ll return this week so we’re back to a three-man split at receiver with Chris Olave and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. JSN is probably a fade here at $7,800 as he’s likely relegated to his WR3 status now with a fully healthy WR corps. Still plenty productive before last week’s 40-point bonanza, averaging 100 receiving yards per game in the three games leading up to last Saturday, but not worth $7,800 with both Olave/Wilson garnering equal targets. Purdue is 17th in Pass Play Success Rate, but 126th in Pass Play Explosiveness, so maybe this is the Chris Olave breakout game we’ve been waiting on. Highest aDOT among the starting receivers at 15.6.
Projection of 27.1 for CJ Stroud this week is nearly the same projection he had a week ago against Nebraska, but a major bump up in salary at $9,400. On the plus side, he’s got his three superstar receivers intact and the implied total of 41.5 means points a plenty as usual for the Buckeyes. But this is not your typical Purdue secondary. We mentioned their success rate above. The Boilermakers are allowing just 14.6 FPPG to opposing QBs this season which is tied for seventh-best in the country. I think we’ll see low ownership in GPPs for Stroud this week. It’s not as though the Ohio State offense has been humming of late either, with just two offensive touchdowns and four FGs against Penn State and Nebraska.
Are we due for another Tre Henderson breakout performance? Purdue is just 40th in Rush Play Success Rate this season, but allowed six yards a carry last week to Kenneth Walker and are giving up over five yards a carry in the last three games. In OSU’s first four Big Ten games, the Buckeyes averaged 190.5 rushing yards per game and 6.0 yards per carry. The last two weeks against Penn State and Nebraska those numbers have dropped to 125.5 yards per game and just 3.9 yards per attempt. I think this could be a bounce-back week for the running game. My only concern here is if the coaching staff decides to limit Henderson’s snaps to avoid any freshman burnout as he’s been on the field significantly more over the last two games. Master Teague and Miyan Williams are both healthy.
Maryland @ Michigan State
Point-Spread: MSU -12
O/U Total: 61.5
Weather: 40 degrees / 41% rain / 13 mph winds
Maryland:
Got to be honest – I’m sick and tired of writing about Maryland. Feels like they’ve been on the Main Slate every single week. The unfortunate part is this week, we MUST cover them because of the matchup with the Michigan State secondary that is being carved up game after game by marginal quarterbacks. And Taulia Tagovailoa certainly fits that description. I get nervous rostering Tagovailoa any time he’s on the road, and the weather doesn’t appear to be great in East Lansing on Saturday. That said, MSU is allowing 28.1 FPPG to opposing QBs this season and are dead last in the country in passing yards allowed per game. 112th in Pass Play Success Rate. If you don’t want to roster Taulia, trust me, I get it. But we do want a share of this passing game regardless, because the yards will be there at least and a favorable game script as a near two touchdown underdog.
Best play of the entire slate might be Maryland tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo at $4,200. Yes, a tight end. Coming of his best performance of the season last week against Penn State where he was targeted 15 times, resulting in 85 yards and 12 receptions, Okonkwo now faces a MSU defense that has given up the second most points in the country to tight ends, allowing 11.9 FPPG. Considering price and matchup, I’ll have a good bit of Okonkwo in my Saturday lineups. WR1 Rakim Jarrett is also very inexpensive at $4,500 and his production has been steadily increasing the last few games with 15 receptions on 18 targets in the last three weeks. Due to injury, Maryland will mix in between 4-5 other receivers in the rotation but Marcus Fleming and Carlos Carriere seem to be the primaries alongside Jarrett, playing around 66 percent of the offensive snaps last week. Very little interest in the Maryland running backs as we’re seeing a 50-50 split now between Tayon Fleet-Davis and Challen Faamatau, facing a MSU run defense allowing only 18 fantasy points combined to opposing RBs this season. Maryland is 95th in Line Yards and 103rd in Stuff Rate. Not the matchup for Maryland running backs to succeed.
Michigan State:
I really hate to cheat here, but what more can I say about the MSU offense with the Big Ten featured seemingly each and every week on the Main Slate. Kenneth Walker is an elite play again, projected at 28 fantasy points, facing a Maryland defense that is allowing 22.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s. The Terps field a below-average run defense, ranked 85th in Rush Play Success Rate defensively and 12th overall in the Big Ten. Maryland is a bit better this season against the pass, ranking 44th in Pass Play Success Rate, but are still giving up 26.1 FPPG to opposing QBs so we can’t discount Payton Thorne here at $7k. Its cold, windy and rainy up here now in Big Ten country so how much do we trust him in inclement weather? Injuries to monitor at receiver with Jalen Nailor who did not suit up last week, and I’m having a difficult time finding any updates on him. Everyone was on the min salaried Montorie Foster last week, but why not spend up just a little for Tre Mosley who has been productive for much of the season as the team’s third option? Found the end-zone twice on three targets vs. Purdue. If Nailor is out, Jayden Reed becomes much more attractive given he was targeted 10 times against the Boilermakers. Nobody else came close to that mark with the next highest pass-catcher targeted just four times.
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