Arizona State @ Washington
Point-Spread: Az St -5.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Weather: 49 degrees / 90% rain / 3 mph winds
Arizona State:
Only play here is Rachaad White. QB Jayden Daniels is also projected at over 20 fantasy points, but teams don’t throw with much success against this Washington secondary which is second in PFF coverage grades only to Georgia. The Huskies are 10th in Pass Play PPA, 13th in Pass Play Success Rate and allowing just 16.4 FPPG to opposing QBs on the year. Adding insult to injury, as of writing this there is expected 80 percent chance of rain. The Arizona State passing game is terrible as it is with perfect conditions against mediocre competition. Bad matchup, poor weather conditions. Fade Arizona State’s passing game. On the flipside, teams can run on Washington, allowing over 20 FPPG to opposing RB1s and 107th in Rush Play Success Rate. Normally a split backfield with DeaMontre Traynum, we saw White dominate the volume share in the Sun Devils’ backfield with 28 carries against USC for 202 yards and three scores. Why the lopsided split in favor of White? Trayanum now has three fumbles in the last four games. I’ll have to double check on Saturday what’s being said about the talented sophomore – if he’s completely in the doghouse or does he have a chance to rebound? I do not advise rostering an Arizona State receiver but sounds like a bunch of dudes are either injured or have transferred from the program over the last few weeks. I think we are down to just Ricky Pearsall, Bryan Thompson and LV Bunkley-Shelton who combined for 17 of the 20 targets last week. While we hate the Arizona State passing game, it appears down to just three receivers seeing the majority of offensive snaps.
Washington:
The head coach is suspended for striking a player and the offensive coordinator has been fired. Its going to be raining in Seattle and this offense is inept even in perfect weather, averaging just 19.6 PPG over the last five weeks. Should we care at all about Washington here? Rumors swirling about Dylan Morris splitting QB reps this week with 5-star freshman Sam Huard, but neither is dirt cheap at the position like we’ve seen ala Chandler Morris in the $4k range previously, and difficult for us to know whether the QB or the system was the cause for the offensive woes. The Sun Devils have allowed just nine passing TDs this season, are 45th in Pass Play Success Rate and giving up just 21 FPPG to opposing QBs. I think we need to see progress with a new offensive play-caller before investing here.
After splitting carries in Week 9 vs. Stanford, Sean McGrew dominated the volume distribution in the Washington backfield last week with 15 attempts compared to just five carries for backup Cameron Davis. Does the new OC favor one player over the other? No way for us to know here so best bet is to ride McGrew if choosing one – recency bias. Probably another fade spot for me, though, as Arizona State is allowing just 11.0 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season. Middle of the road statistically, ranking 62nd in Rush Play Success Rate, but 33rd in Explosive Rush Plays allowed and have held four of their last five opponents to under four yards a carry.
The calls have been LOUD for Washington to open up the offense, so I’d expect new play-caller Junior Adams to appease those desires on Saturday. How effective will that be? Not very is my guess, but could open up the Washington pass-catchers as potential options. I’m seeing multiple references by those that cover the team that suggest getting Cade Otton more involved in the offense is best course of action. His targets have fallen dramatically over the last five weeks, but did have four catches on seven targets vs. Oregon. Very inexpensive at $4k. Jalen McMillan, Rome Odunze and Terrell Bynum dominate the snap count share at wide receiver, with McMillan targeted 24 times in the last four games. Odunze was targeted 10 times in Week 9 vs. Stanford, while Bynum has been targeted just twice in the last two weeks.
Kentucky @ Vanderbilt
Point-Spread: UK -21.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Weather: 41 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Kentucky:
Will Levis is likely to have the highest ownership of any player on the slate with a projection of 26 fantasy points, coming off his best performance of the year with over 400 total yards and five touchdowns against Tennessee. Why Levis will also be popular? Look at Kentucky blowouts this year over LSU and in the opener against Louisiana-Monroe. A combined nine touchdowns in those two contests. Vanderbilt is dead last in the SEC in pass defense and allowing 29.0 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. I would say that a strong GPP pivot would be to roll with Chris Rodriguez instead with players flocking towards Levis, but both players have affordable salaries in the $6k range so why not roster both with the 38.5 implied team total. Rodriguez was apparently not 100 percent earlier this season, hence the lull in production vs. Georgia and Mississippi State, but looked closer to full health last week, rushing for 109 yards on 22 carries. Vanderbilt is allowing 21.0 FPPG to opposing RB1s, are 104th in Rush Play Success Rate and 107th in Rush Explosiveness. Kentucky’s offensive line should have a field day, ranking 7th in Line Yards.
Wan’Dale Robinson continues his absurd pace with over 40 percent of the team target share and a whopping 48 targets in the last three games alone. Mercy. You still don’t have to pay an arm/leg either to get him at $7,300. The true pivot play would be to nab his sidekick Josh Ali instead at $5k who returned to the lineup in Week 9, and had 7-74-0 on 10 targets against Tennessee. In the opener against ULM we reference earlier, Ali had 136 yards and a TD. I don’t think there is another realistic option here on the Kentucky side but want to give mention to tight end Justin Rigg at $3,300 who does have two TDs in the last three games. Vanderbilt is allowing 10.3 FPPG to opposing TE1s this season.
Vanderbilt:
Starting with the injuries, RB Rocko Griffin was back at practice this week but head coach called him “questionable” for Saturday. Doesn’t sound like he’s ready to roll yet personally just from what I glean with the quotes. Patrick Smith would start in place of Griffin, and did rush for 95 yards on 17 carries against Missouri in Week 9. Kentucky is NOT Missouri. Not the dominant rush defense they’ve been recently, but still ranked 24th in Rush Play Success Rate. I don’t see Vandy finding a ton of success on the ground here. Maybe Smith is an option at $3,600 as he saw the bulk of the carries vs. the Tigers, but you need to get confirmation Griffin is out.
QB Ken Seals practiced fully this week and appears to be 100 percent. Does he get his starting job back over Mike Wright who rushed for 162 yards and a TD against Missouri? His passing leaves some to be desired, completing just 54 percent of his passes with an interception in all three starts, but did toss three scores against the Tigers. I have no clue who gets the nod here, and while I’m probably not starting a Vandy QB with such a low implied total (15.5), this Kentucky pass defense is very suspect. Allowing a 69 percent completion rate with 16 touchdowns given up to just three interceptions on the year. UK is 128th in Pass Play Success Rate and giving up 24.5 FPPG to opposing QB1s. Seals back at QB would help out the receivers here as the better thrower of the two quarterbacks. Targets have really been dispersed evenly between the top three options of late with Chris Pierce Jr., Will Sheppard and Cam Johnson. All three are feasible options for me this week given their pricing and potential game script, but don’t see a distinguishable stat that would help prioritize one over the other. Their production has been nearly identical over the last 3-4 weeks.
Texas A&M @ Mississippi
Point-Spread: A&M -2.5
O/U Total: 57
Weather: 41 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Texas A&M:
We’ve seen the Aggies go back to their primary strength on offense the last three games, averaging 263 yards on the ground, and limiting Zach Calzada to just 24, 25 and 29 passing attempts, respectively, in that span. Level of competition has a lot to do with both the success on the ground and game-script in my opinion, but also quite possible the offensive line is rounding into form at just the right time and the Aggies have their typical identity back. I lean the latter since A&M has used the same offensive line combination in those three games so it looks as though they’ve settled on a starting group for the rest of the season. That means plenty of Isaiah Spiller and Devon Achane on Saturday night as the Aggies look to dictate the tempo of the game and keep Ole Miss’ fast-paced offense off the field. With the O-line rounding into form, I do like Spiller specifically this week given his pricing, against a Rebels defense that is 123rd in Rush Success Rate. Against Missouri and South Carolina, the backfield duo was essentially splitting carries, but we got back to normal in a semi-competitive matchup with a 2-1 advantage in favor of Spiller.
Calzada is likely to see low ownership on Saturday with his passing volume decreasing the last month, but this could be a decent pivot play here, particularly if Ole Miss decides to load the box and force the sophomore QB to beat you. If that happens, Calzada will have his opportunities against a secondary that is 9th in the SEC in pass efficiency and allowing over 30 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season. Usual suspects catching the football for A&M with Ainias Smith (55) and Jalen Wydermyer (56) who are separated by a single target this season, accounting for 44 percent of the target share. Ole Miss has done a good job against opposing TE1s this season, allowing just 3.9 FPPG, so I might lean towards Smith here as a better play in GPPs given the salary. Complete roll of the dice if expecting production from Demond Demas, Jalen Preston, Caleb Chapman and others.
Mississippi:
I must start with this statement made by the Ole Miss beat writer within his “Seven Bold Predictions” for Saturday’s matchup because it just made my jaw drop. Listen to this…” After sort of getting the week off against Liberty, Henry Parrish returns as the Rebels’ featured back.” HUH?!?! Would have been nice to know that was the plan heading into last week against Liberty, but that statement also speaks to exactly what we should expect from the Ole Miss backfield. Parrish, Jerrion Ealy and Snoop Conner will rotate all game and there is no way of knowing which RB will be the focus that day. Against A&M, I’d venture to guess the better pass-catchers of the group will be in as the Aggies are among the best in the nation at stopping the run, limiting opponents to under 100 yards in five of the last seven games.
Also mentioned on the same site was this statement – “Word on the street is that Braylon Sanders, Dontario Drummond and Jonathan Mingo could all possibly give it a go this weekend.” INTERESTING! That makes me more inclined to play even a hobbled Matt Corral given how this offense was rolling when all three receivers were on the field. That is far from a guarantee at this point it sounds like, but the return of those three would give a boost to every aspect of the Ole Miss offense. Of that trio, give me Drummond at his pricing as he was thriving early in the year in the slot with 20 receptions and four touchdowns in the first three weeks. A&M has also been successful defending the pass this season, limiting opposing QB1s to just 16.8 FPPG and 10th in Pass Play Success Rate so I’m only interested in Corral if his receivers are back. Dannis Jackson, John Rhys Plumlee and Jahcour Pearson won’t cut it. After posting 15 targets in the previous three games, tight end Casey Kelly was goose-egged against Liberty.
Arkansas @ LSU
Point-Spread: Ark -3
O/U Total: 59
Weather: 50 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Arkansas:
Projections are liking KJ Jefferson this week at 25.4 points facing an LSU defense that is allowing over 30 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season. At his $7,400 price tag, I really like the sound of rostering Jefferson, but will be a tad cautious because this LSU defense has played really well the last two weeks after the disastrous performance against Florida. Alabama rushed for just six (yes six) yards against the Tigers last weekend, and are now coming home to Death Valley in a SEC night game. Dangerous proposition for those rostering Jefferson. Jefferson ranks fourth in the SEC in passing efficiency at 164.7. he is 129 of 201 passing (64.2%) for 1,848 yards, 16 touchdowns and three interceptions. He also ranks fourth among SEC quarterbacks in rushing yards with 433, though he hasn’t run as much of late with just eight carries in the last two games.
Mentioned this on the Discord already but there is a stone cold lock for this slate at $3k in Dominique Johnson. Apparently, the Razorbacks are “fully invested” as Johnson being the lead back, averaging just under eight yards a carry on the year after a career-high 107 yards and two touchdowns against a really good Mississippi State defense. Johnson’s ascension to the top of the depth chart sounds like a surprise to everyone on the coaching staff with the talent already in place, but all the quotes are pointing to Johnson being THE guy for the foreseeable future. The Razorbacks still distributed a few carries to Trelon Smith and Raheim Sanders as they’ve done for much of the season, but shouldn’t deter you away from Johnson. Last week’s performance against Alabama feels like a one-off, as they’re just two weeks removed from allowing 265 yards to Ole Miss in late October.
Some secondary characters in the Arkansas passing game will receive targets, but there is one and only one option at receiver in Treylon Burks. 32 percent of the target share and half of the team’s receiving touchdowns. Burning money if you choose anyone else.
LSU:
LSU beat writers are surprisingly confident that the Tigers are winning this game. I understand they played well at Alabama but this roster is decimated with injuries and now we have a quarterback competition between Max Johnson and Garrett Nussmeier. Sounds like a situation where the staff will ride the hot hand so I think we can safely fade this spot. The Razorbacks are starting to show some cracks in the secondary, allowing eight passing touchdowns in the last four games, but are 66th in Pass Play Success Rate this season and giving up around 23 FPPG to opposing QBs. I think if we knew for sure who was getting the majority of the game, they’d be in play, but no way of predicting who that will be unless we get official word. If we’re out on the QBs against a middling secondary, maybe we look to the LSU receivers here. Trouble is they’re rotating six receivers extensively here, though starters Jaray Jenkins, Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. had a healthy advantage in terms of snap counts last week. Really no preference from me between the three as to who you choose, though Jenkins has led the Tigers in targets the last two games. Trey Palmer and Jontre Kirklin will get some rotational work. Arkansas has done well this season covering the middle of the field, limiting opposing TE1s to just 2.7 FPPG. 15 targets the last two weeks to freshman Jack Bech, though he’s only on the field around 45 percent of the team’s offensive snaps.
Tyrion Davis-Price has come back down to earth after laying scorch to said earth a few weeks ago, averaging under four yards a carry over the last two games, though did top 100 yards against Bama. I won’t outright fade TDP and will sprinkle him in some lineups, but not the greatest of matchups here. LSU will be down two starters along the offensive line, and Arkansas is 36th in Rush Success Rate, allowing just 16.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season. Numbers look good the last three weeks for the Razorbacks, but that includes Auburn with a less-than-100 percent Tank Bigsby, Arkansas Pine Bluff and Mississippi State. Did dominate the rushing volume in the backfield last week with a 23-5 advantage over backup Corey Kiner, and would assume it remains that way in what looks to be a competitive matchup.
Kansas @ Texas
Point-Spread: Tex -31
O/U Total: 62
Weather: 58 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Kansas:
We’re short on time on this Friday evening as I’m typing this and I’m having a drink – aka we’re not doing a deep dive into the Kansas offense who has the lowest implied total of the slate and scored exactly 13 points in the last two games. It’s basketball season for the Jayhawks. In all seriousness, maybe we give Devin Neal a look at $4,100 as he projects well this week at 17+ fantasy points, taking on a Texas defense that allows 19.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s and is just ahead of the Jayhawks at ninth in the Big 12 in rushing defense. Nobody else is really getting carries in the backfield right now. WR1 Kwamie Lassiter is the other KU player I’d potentially consider rostering, with 15 receptions on 19 targets in the last three games.
Texas:
I know there are some fantastic RBs at the top of the slate, but why spend up when we have some superb deals with the previously-mentioned Dominique Johnson and possibly Texas RB3 turned starter Keilan Robinson in this matchup. Both Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson will be game-time decisions, and as 31-point favorites, it probably makes a good bit of sense to hold both out on Saturday if not 100 percent. Will have to monitor Saturday night because Robinson, the Alabama transfer, becomes a smash play at $3,500 if both RBs ahead of him on the depth chart are unavailable. I compare Robinson to Chandler Morris last week. This is a former 4-star recruit that has plenty of talent, not your prototypical $3k option, and has a favorable matchup against a Kansas defense that is allowing 24.0 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Sounds like FR Jonathon Brooks would be the backup on Saturday if Robinson/Johnson were unable to play, with senior Gabe Watson as the third man in the rotation.
Injuries to monitor here at QB as well with Casey Thompson nursing a thumb injury. Sounds like Thompson has practiced and performed well according to Steve Sarkisian, but we’re seeing indication that both he and Hudson Card will play this weekend. If we get word that Thompson is out (unlikely), Card is definitely in play at $5,500 going against a defense that is allowing 33.5 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. Unfortunately, it looks to be both guys and we’ll have to fade the Texas quarterbacks in a favorable matchup. The Longhorns are down to one proven commodity at receiver with Xavier Worthy now that Joshua Moore has entered the transfer portal. Doesn’t matter who is in at QB, they’ll get the ball to the team’s WR1 so Worthy is definitely in play here at $6,600. With Moore in the portal, Marcus Washington and Kelvontay Dixon will join Worthy in the starting lineup. With question marks at WR, we also saw increased activity from tight end Cade Brewer as one of the trusted pass-catchers for Texas with seven of his 15 targets coming in the last two games.
Notre Dame @ Virginia
Point-Spread: ND -6.5
O/U Total: 63
Weather: 39 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Notre Dame:
Notre Dame’s offense has revolved around Kyren Williams in the last month, averaging nearly 26 touches per game. Due in part to injuries with Chris Tyree having been banged up, but Williams has just been dominant in that span as well, averaging close to 33 fantasy points. UVA is allowing the fourth most fantasy points to running backs in the country currently and are 122nd against the run. Remember what Tyler Allgeier did to the Hoos’ defense last time out? Just one of the many sensational plays at running back in this night slate. Williams projects over 30 fantasy points this week, so he’s as close to a lock as it gets.
The rest of the ND components on offense are in the conversation here with the implied total of nearly five touchdowns, but am I giddy about rostering any of them? Not really. Jack Coan has completed over 70 percent of his passes the last four games, but hasn’t thrown more than a touchdown in any game, and still gives way to FR Tyler Buchner in situational spots. UVA is allowing 30.0 FPPG to opposing QBs this season so could be a pivot away from Williams if Virginia made use of the bye week to create a plan of attack to stop the run. We know Virginia will give up points Saturday. Kevin Austin Jr. and tight end Michael Mayer are the primaries in the ND passing game, combining for 10 receptions on 11 targets last week against Navy. Avery Davis starts in the slot with Braden Lenzy re-assuming his starting role last week over Lorenzo Styles, dominating the snap counts at the LWR position. Looking at Pro Football Focus’ new matchup tool on their site, looks as though UVA’s slot receiver and linebackers are quiet poor in coverage so might be a good day for someone like a Michael Mayer over the middle of the field.
Virginia:
Looks like money came in over the course of Friday evening in favor of the Irish here, now 6.5-point favorites and the total dropped a point to 63. Is that a sign we do not see Brennan Armstrong on Saturday night? We know Armstrong is a tough SOB and the guy you’d want on your team in a backyard football game, but rib injuries are difficult to play through and doesn’t sound like Armstrong is 100 percent even if he did play. Should we get word he’s playing, I think Armstrong is a viable GPP option even at $10k because we can easily spend down at running back as mentioned above. I suspect very low ownership there with the injury uncertainty. If Armstrong can’t go, it sounds like Jay Woolfolk would get the starting nod at $4,500 and Mendenhall stated the offense would not change much with the freshman under center. I’d be lying if I said I knew much about Woolfolk, and his high school stats indicate he was a better baseball player than football player. Did have 38 yards rushing on five attempts against Duke earlier in the year. With the way UVA’s offense has been performing this year, I want to say Woolfolk would be a lock at min salary, but I caution against this line of thinking in that Mendenhall is likely to use both Keytaon Thompson and Jacob Rodriguez in the backfield as well. This won’t be all Woolfolk at QB and the staff has had two weeks now to devise a game plan.
With QB question marks, do we see Virginia run the ball more on Saturday with their running backs? More injuries to account for there as Wayne Taulapapa suffered a concussion against BYU and Mendenhall provided no update on the senior running back. Mike Hollins was confirmed to be a go, and we could also see more of grad transfer Devin Darrington who does have 60 yards rushing and a touchdown in two of the last three games. UVA is last in the ACC in run play percentage and 126th in the country, so playing a Virginia running back is not a necessity.
No Armstrong means no Dontavian Wicks at $8,000, despite three-straight games of at least 125 receiving yards with three touchdowns. Running backs in this slate pretty much allow us to do whatever we want, so we could get a little contrarian here with Wicks is Armstrong doesn’t play as I assume everyone will jump off the WR1 if we get that news, but I’m not sure I can trust a player with six career passing attempts to get Wicks the rock consistently. Billy Kemp shows as questionable and I haven’t seen a status update on his health yet. If he does play, Kemp is the perfect architype of receiver that a young QB can lean on in the passing game as his routes are close to the LOS with an aDOT of just 5.7. Double-digit targets in six of the last seven games. Tight ends can be a young quarterback’s best friend as well, and Jelani Woods is one of the best in the game, now with a touchdown in six of his last seven games as well. DraftKings continues their buffoonery and lists Keytaon Thompson as a quarterback, rendering him unplayable.
NC State @ Wake Forest
Point-Spread: WF -2
O/U Total: 64.5
Weather: 42 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
NC State:
Bam Knight breakout game? Game-plan should be pretty clear-cut for the Wolfpack entering Saturday – limit the possessions for the Wake Forest offense and establish the ground game against a run defense that ranks 121st in the country. We finally saw a mini-breakout of sorts last week against Florida State with both Knight and Ricky Person topping 75 total yards, but the struggles to run the ball consistently were apparent again as NC State averaged just 3.1 YPC as a team. Overall on the year, NC State is just 91st in Rush Play Success Rate. Something is not jiving because it’s not as though the offensive line is playing poorly, ranking 5th in Stuff Rate and 52nd in Line Yards. The outcome of this game for me comes down to if the Wolfpack are able to establish the run. I’ll be underweight on both players because this is generally a split backfield and NC State has yet to prove this season they can move the ball consistently on the ground. But I can definitely see myself regretting that decision as both Person/Knight rushed for 100+ yards last year against WF with four total touchdowns. They’ve succeeded against this defense before.
I wish QB Devin Leary was just a tad cheaper at $7,600, but I guess that’s what happens when you top 30+ fantasy points in the last two games and throw for 300+ in the last three. A 25-3 touchdown to interception ratio is just absurd, and you don’t hear much national pub at all regarding Leary. WF is a bit better defending the pass, but still allowing 28.9 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. Against FSU last week, we saw eight different players catch passes, with non-starters Porter Rooks and C.J. Riley leading the way. That’s an anomaly, but does speak to how much Leary will spread the ball around to a wealth of options. There is no target hog here, and I’d be more than comfortable rostering Leary naked. Leading receivers Emeka Emezie and Thayer Thomas were held to just 11 receiving yards despite being targeted six times. WR3 Devin Carter was shut out of the stat column. Might have been performance-related. Looking at the PFF matchups page, Emezie looks to have the best matchup here lining up across from cornerback Ja’Sir Taylor who has a 46.1 coverage grade. NOT great, Bob.
Wake Forest:
Is the Wake Forest offense matchup proof at this point? We’ll find out Saturday against an NC State defense that is trending upwards, limiting Louisville and Florida State to just 13 and 14 points, respectively, in the last two games, and the Wolfpack are now 6th in the country in scoring defense. Vegas still expects points, though, with an implied team total of 34.25. If this were a normal slate and DraftKings didn’t screw up pricing at running back, I’d say lets play it safe and fade Sam Hartman at $10,200 given the matchup, but I think we can easily slide him in here with a projection of over 32 fantasy points. Averaging 35 FPPG on the season, and over 50 (!) fantasy points over the last three weeks. Defense is optional with those three opponents, so we should not expect that against a formidable opponent, but tough to fade Hartman the way he’s playing at the moment. His rushing volume increasing this season is why Hartman is now a top-tier fantasy quarterback, now with seven rushing scores in the last five games.
We’ve covered the WF receivers at length this season so we’re not doing a deep dive on Jaquarii Roberson or A.T. Perry. NC State’s nickel corner Tyler Baker-Williams grades out very well in coverage this season so maybe we look to Perry this week as opposed to Roberson? We did see WR3 Taylor Morin finally make an appearance last week with 60 yards and a touchdown on five targets. Production hasn’t been there but Morin continues to be on the field more than backups Donald Stewart and Ke’Shawn Williams who rotate in sparingly. We’re not normally interested in the WF backfield as a full-fledged RBBC, but sounds as though Christian Beal-Smith may be out. We’ll have to monitor pregame, but Justice Ellison would likely get the starting nod and he’s only $4,400. Tempting but I would not be overweight there as NC State is 7th in the country in Rush Play Success Rate and allows just 12.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season. Not a great matchup.
TCU @ Oklahoma State
Point-Spread: OK State -12
O/U Total: 54
Weather: 47 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
TCU:
Chandler Morris was indeed a free square last week and I 100 percent regret not having more shares after his 40+ point performance. Back to reality this week as Oklahoma State allows just 13.7 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season and are 10th in PFF coverage grades. It was a nice story but I’m out this week at $6,400. His rushing upside at least keeps him somewhat in the conversation with over 100 yards on 19 carries over the last two weeks. One feather in the cap for Morris would be that the entire offense might have to revolve around him on Saturday as TCU could be without both Zach Evans and Keandre Miller in the backfield. With the team’s RB4 now out for the season too, the running game would solely fall on the legs of Emari Demercado who had 89 total yards last week in relief against Baylor. That Oklahoma State defense is just as good, if not better, at defending the run, ranked fourth in the country, allowing just 2.61 YPC. WR Quentin Johnston is talented enough to beat any secondary in the country – I question if Morris can get it to him consistently against this pass defense. Three 100-yard performances in the last four weeks. If looking elsewhere at receivers for TCU, Derius Davis would be the shot in the dark at $3,900, targeted 12 times in the last two weeks. Slot-man Taye Barber was targeted a season-high eight times last week, while Quincy Brown and Blair Conwright saw rotational work.
Oklahoma State:
Jaylen Warren still feels like a smash play here at just $6,500, but there are some concerns. For one, TCU seems to be improving on the defensive end the last two weeks. Still allowed nearly five yards a carry last week to Baylor, but that’s a significant upgrade since the middle portion of the season. Both Kansas State and the Bears were held to under five yards a carry. Warren, on the other hand, is trending downwards the last three weeks. Not only is the volume not there, but the production isn’t either with under 80 yards rushing over that span. To be fair, Iowa State and West Virginia are good at stopping the run, and the Kansas game was just a matter of game script with it being a blowout. The Horned Frogs are still allowing the most fantasy points in the country to opposing RBs and Warren has to be considered here. If you believe the downward trend, Warren would be a wise fade for GPP. TCU also struggles to defend the pass this year, allowing 28.1 FPPG to opposing QBs, and Spencer Sanders projects well this week for a QB at $7,300. I like the idea of pairing Sanders and WR1 Tay Martin if fading Warren here as he’s found the end-zone four times in the last three games. Volume is a bit sporadic, but averaging nearly nine targets a game on the year. Bigger bodied receivers have really exposed the TCU defense this season as we’ve seen with Tyquan Thornton, Trevon Clark and Jadon Haselwood who all posted 20+ fantasy points. Brennan Presley is the only other pass-catcher worthy of consideration for Oklahoma State with 14 of his 29 receptions coming in the last three games alone.
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