North Texas vs. Miami (Ohio)
Point-Spread: Mia OH -2.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Weather: 68 degrees / 0% rain / 18 mph winds
North Texas:
If you watched this North Texas team in September and October, you would have never believed they would even sniff a possible appearance in a bowl game, let along make one. But here they are, riding a five-game win streak on the back of a very strong rushing attack that finished No. 1 in Conference USA, averaging 246 YPG, and rank fourth in the country in attempts per game. Reasoning for that is two-fold. On one hand, RB1 DeAndre Torrey has been one of the best running backs in the country in 2021 for a guy that wasn’t even slated to start entering the year. After hitting a bit of a speed bump in early November when he was nicked up, Torrey closed the year like he began it, topping 100 yards vs. FIU and UTSA with a combined five touchdowns. Torrey will have the highest ownership on the slate of any player, and while you should never have 100 percent exposure to cover yourself, he’s pretty damn close on a two-game slate.
There is zero concern with Torrey with regards to the Miami (Ohio) defense. UNT is 27th in Line Yards and the RedHawks are 88th in Rush Play Success Rate. He should feast. The lone concern is how the Mean Green divvy up the carries with a quartette of RBs with Ikaika Ragsdale, Ayo Adeyi and Isaiah Johnson all getting carries. Given how much UNT runs the football, and these ABSURD prices, everyone is viable here even as a 2.5-point dog. Ragsdale is ridiculously mispriced at min-salary as he’s topped 100 yards in three of the last four games. Granted, these came in blowouts, but why wouldn’t you give that a shot at $3k with that potential payoff. Even Adeyi is averaging 10 carries and 10 FPPG this season. The biggest concern for me here is that both are listed behind Johnson on the bowl game depth chart – though he does have the “questionable” tag on DK. I have no idea if Johnson will play or not, but I think both min priced players are worth the risk on a team that runs the ball 61.3 percent of the time.
Contrarian play in GPPs will be the North Texas passing game that has seen somewhat of a surge the last month or so behind 50-year old (kidding) quarterback Austin Aune. With the available options to us being less-than-inspiring, I can see going in that direction, but not sure they have to against this RedHawks defense that won’t provide a ton of resistance – unless they load the box and force the UNT passing game to beat them. Not that Aune hasn’t been part of the problem, but biggest issue is the lack of WRs outside of Roderic Burns. Who else is there that Aune can trust throwing to? Really don’t think it’s a necessity to roster any part of this Mean Green passing game. FWIW – Bryson Jackson and Damon Ward are listed as the starters alongside Burns on the depth chart, but that duo combined for all of five targets in the last two games. Detraveon Brown and Khatib Lyles will see rotational work, but it’s a crapshoot outside of Burns at receiver. Second-best option might be tight end Jason Pirtle who finished second with 38 receptions on 51 targets.
Miami (OH):
Not doing a deep dive here because, if you’re playing tomorrow then you’ve followed along all season with our DFS content, and know by now there isn’t much to know about Miami (Ohio) outside of a few players. I know the RedHawks are a slight favorite here, but this sets up for Brett Gabbert and the passing game to have a big day, unless North Texas decides to drop eight in coverage because they don’t believe in the Miami (Ohio) ground game. UNT allows 23.9 FPPG to opposing QB1s, are 37th in Pass Play Success Rate, but also 124th in Pass Play Explosiveness. That spells good news for both Jack Sorenson and Mac Hippenhammer who averaged over 16 YPC with 15 of the team’s 30 touchdowns. Both are very much in play as they account for over 50 percent of the team target share, and I have zero issue about having both in a single lineup together. That number jumps to 67 percent if you include WR3 Jalen Walker who found the end-zone in three of the last four games. Surprised to see he only had one drop this season, but was still inefficient, converting on just 56 percent of passes directed his way. Storyline to monitor at tight end with Andrew Homer barely playing in Week 12 and not seeing a single snap in Week 13. He is listed atop the depth chart, but if he does not play, sophomore Jack Coldiron enters the equation after posting 5-83-1 on six targets in the season finale. Will have to check Thursday if Homer is a go or not.
RBBC with four different running backs seeing between 5-12 carries each game. No sense in rostering any of them vs. a North Texas defense that is very stout against the run, ranking 14th in Rush Play Success Rate. Game week depth chart reads…Keyon Mozee -> Kenny Tracy -> Tyre Shelton. If Miami (Ohio) goes into full Air Raid, Tracy is the best pass-catcher of the bunch with 21 targets – topped 100 yards receiving vs. Kent State in the season finale.
Central Florida vs. Florida
Point-Spread: FL -7
O/U Total: 55.5
Weather: 59 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
UCF:
This matchup is all about motivation for me. Florida has a decided talent advantage, but will they care about this mediocre bowl against a AAC team? Guess it helps that the opponent is UCF that has been clamoring for a matchup against an in-state P5 school for years, yet the Florida’s and FSU’s of the world kept ducking them – or at least the Knights and their fanbase perceived it that way. Let’s start with the injury news here as RB1 Isaiah Bowser is ready to go per head coach Gus Malzahn. Safe to assume he’ll start and play extensively based on quotes from media day. WR1 Jaylon Robinson sounds a bit murkier with Malzahn stating “we’ll, we’ll, we’ll see. We’ll see where that thing goes.” Out on the Florida defense will be a host of critical components, including starting linebacker Mohamoud Diabate who led the team with 89 tackles, and defensive end Zach Carter who had eight sacks and numerous tackles for loss.
With multiple Gators out on defense, how does the UCF run game stack up? Statistically, looks to be an even matchup that could go either way. Florida is just 68th in Rush Play Success Rate defensively and allows nearly 20 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season. UCF is 38th in the country in rush yards per game, averaging well over five yards a carry with 25 rushing scores, and are 23rd in Rush Play Success Rate. So…UCF should be able to find success on the ground if advanced stats are the primary indicator. The issue is we have three of which to choose from with Bowser, Johnny Richardson and Mark Antony-Richards. Both of the backups played well as the year came to a close, but when Bowser’s been healthy, he’s clearly the RB1 of the group. Does that change any with how MAR and Richardson performed down the stretch? Nobody knows. Richardson is bound to see the lowest ownership of the trio given his salary, because I’d assume DFS players will either spend up slightly for Bowser or go with the punt play. FWIW – of the four teams on this slate, this backfield probably sits third behind North Texas and Florida in terms of interest level for my lineups.
Despite Robinson looking to be questionable, he is listed atop the depth chart along with usual starters Ryan O’Keefe and Brandon Johnson. Not seeing any distinct advantage with the receivers vs. the Florida secondary as both outside and inside receivers have fared well against the Gators. Johnson likely matches up with Florida’s top CB in Kaiir Elam, so I think O’Keefe is likely the best play here even at $6,500 as he’s had at least five receptions in each of the last eight games. Florida’s slot corner doesn’t grade out well at all on PFF. If Robinson is limited or doesn’t play, I believe the fourth option would likely be 4-star FR Titus Mokiao-Atimalala who dies see his snaps increase over the final three weeks of the season. Bowl games are always a great chance at getting talented freshmen reps, so I’d expect to see him regardless. Tight ends are not featured in this offense and would be an extreme longshot punt play.
Florida allowed just 17.4 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season and the backend of the defense was the undoubted strength. That number isn’t fully accurate, though, as it doesn’t include the 416-yard, three touchdown performance allowed to Samford in Week 11. Remember when we said motivation will play a major part in the outcome of this game? I’m not a Mikey Keene fan, and probably stay away here as there really isn’t anything he does well. Six times this season he scored less than 10 fantasy points and is not a dual-threat. Only reason to roster him would be his minimal ownership in GPPs and you want to be contrarian.
Florida:
As has been the case with all of bowl season, let’s start with who won’t be available. Anthony Richardson is out. Jacob Copeland is in the transfer portal. I haven’t located a depth chart, but I assume this will not be a Mitchell Tinsley-like situation where a player is in the transfer portal, yet will play in the bowl game. Continue to see Copeland being “crystal-balled” to different schools and I assume he will not play on Thursday. Will do our due diligence but my initial assumption is he won’t play. No Copeland doesn’t provide a ton of clarity for us as to which direction passes will be going in as no WR had more than 17 percent of the target share in 2021, but I think that does give us a better idea of who to prioritize.
Some projected former 5-star Justin Shorter to have a breakout season, and he did of sorts with a career-high 38-496-3. Still didn’t live up to the 5-star status he had coming out of high school. 25 of his 38 receptions came in the back-half of the season and is the likeliest candidate to assume the WR1 with Copeland out. Whoever starts in the slot has the best matchup of the Florida receivers as UCF nickel corner grades out very poorly in coverage, but we are seeing a split between Rick Wells and Trent Whittemore – the latter does see more snaps on a per-game basis and would be my selection if choosing between the two. Slight discount in salary is an added bonus. Starting opposite Shorter on the outside is probably Xzavier Henderson, who did have an 11-target outing against Samford in Week 11, but was quiet in the final two games. I could envision a scenario where the interim staff gets some other players involved, but I don’t have insights into how that rotation might go. Safest bet of the Florida pass-catchers might be tight end Kemore Gamble who averaged five targets per game over the final month and a half of the season. UCF allowed 7.8 FPPG to opposing tight ends this season, so that might be the play.
Reading the tea leaves of some of the Florida articles and message boards, I have a feeling that we might see Dameon Pierce get fed the rock in his final collegiate game. Maybe just the sentiment that Florida fans have for the senior running back, but I really like Pierce here at $5,300 despite averaging just seven carries a game this season. With a team-high 15 touchdowns, Pierce is absolutely going to get a look from the NFL and this is the perfect chance to showcase. Those seven carries a game mean someone else will see touches, though, whether it be QB Emory Jones or backups Malik Davis and Nay’Quan Wright. Davis got heavy work as a pass-catcher in the back half of the year with 21 of his 31 targets coming in the last six games. Wright is a talented player, but has suffered from playing behind a pair of upperclassmen, in a system that has primarily been RBBC. I assume that won’t change even with the interim staff and is purely a dart throw candidate. As long as the offensive line is intact, the Gators have the decided advantage in the ground game, ranking 44th in Rush Play Success Rate and 31st in Line Yards vs. a UCF defense that is 99th in Rush Play Success Rate. The Knights did close the year holding opponents to 4.0 YPC or less in six of the last eight weeks, but that included Connecticut, USF, Tulane, Temple, Memphis and East Carolina.
As for Jones, I have no clue what to expect out of him Thursday. Playing the narrative game…does Emory keep himself healthy for his next destination as he’s already in the transfer portal? Pierce commented on Jones during media day, stating he’s going to lay it all out on the line vs. UCF. Narratives aside, the projection for Jones feels high this week sitting at nearly 30 fantasy points as he’s hit that number just twice all year, and facing a UCF defense that allows just 19.8 FPPG. Jones obviously has the highest upside of any QB on the slate with his legs and should hit double-digit carries. The Gabbert and Jones duo at the QB and S-Flex will have the highest ownership on the slate in GPPs, and I’ll probably be overweight on Jones because of the upside factor. No other player on this slate outside of Jones, Sorenson and Torrey have 40-point upside.