Wake Forest vs. Rutgers
Point-Spread: WF -16.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Weather: 79 degrees / 15% rain / 9 mph winds
Wake Forest:
Having Jaquarii Roberson in the lineup is better than not having him, but this Wake Forest passing offense should be just fine with capable replacements waiting in the wings. We already know WR1 A.T. Perry who is now probably a lock given Roberson being out and his pricing at $6,600. I think everyone in the CFF community will be on Ke’Shawn Williams as a Top 100 receiver next season as the Roberson replacement in the slot, and he might be the lock of the slate at $3,100. I typically like to fade these types of options in DFS that everyone will be on but the Wake Forest starting slot man in this scheme averages over 90+ targets a season. With much of the focus on Perry/Williams, I think pivots to either Taylor Morin or Donald Stewart are fine as both played 65 percent of the snaps in the Week 13 matchup with Boston College to close the year. Morin, of the two, is the player that could potentially break a slate so would favor him over Stewart. Roberson’s absence doesn’t affect my opinion of Sam Hartman at all in this situation and is our highest projected QB remaining of the games still to be played. Rutgers only allowed 21.7 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season but some of that is baked into their schedule facing the likes of Wisconsin, Indiana, Northwestern and a horrendous non-conference schedule. Competent QBs lit up this defense all season so Hartman is absolutely in play here. If you’re game stacking a team/component on this slate, it is the Wake Forest passing game, even as a heavy favorite.
Running game was a mess for WF to end the year with injury uncertainty, and not sure we even need to care who is playing as the Deacons averaged under four yards a carry as a team. Depth chart in the Gator Bowl guide still has Roberson listed so I don’t think we can take anything that says with any credence. Christian Turner and Quinton Cooley shared the duties in the season finale, and until I see otherwise, those would be the two players I’d lean towards starting (I wouldn’t play a WF running back). Rutgers was 44th in Rush Play Success Rate this season, and that is not a fake number like their pass defense metrics.
Rutgers:
23.5 implied team total for the Knights here, but so many questions marks, starting with how prepared this team will be after a three-week layoff following the regular season. There was not a typical bowl practice schedule for Rutgers so could be plenty of rust here. In terms of who will be on the field, the biggest question mark is Isaih Pacheco who declared for the NFL Draft, and I don’t believe his intentions on playing in this game are known at the moment. Another backup in Kyle Monangai is recovering from surgery and not expected to play so if Pacheco is out, the bulk of the carries could fall on Aaron Young. And it looks like DK already expects him to start as he’s $1,200 more than Pacheco. As much as I want to avoid the Rutgers offense, I think the matchup might dictate Young being an option as WF allowed 20.7 FPPG to opposing RB1s during the regular season and are 120th in Rush Play Success Rate. Again, the rust with the Rutgers offense that had not been practicing worries me. Will the offensive line be ready to push defenders around on the interior? Phases of the game we are unable to predict, unfortunately. I’ll continue to follow my rule here of never using Noah Vedral as one of my quarterbacks and sounds like we could see freshman Gavin Wimsatt who has one more freebee left before burning a redshirt, so it’s a near certainty he’ll see reps. Bo Melton sounds like he’s also a question mark for Friday too, so we may see a starting WR trio of Isaiah Washington, Josh Youngblood and Shameen Jones. Game script will absolutely favor the passing game as WF likely dominates this game, so those three could see a hefty amount of targets as tight ends aren’t used much in this passing attack, and the Knights would be lacking depth without Melton/Cruickshank. Priority for me would be Jones>Washington>Youngblood.
Washington State vs. Central Michigan
Point-Spread: WSU -7
O/U Total: 57.5
Weather: 48 degrees / 95% rain / 12 mph winds
Washington State:
Still seeing heavy rain in the forecast for tomorrow which doesn’t bode well for Washington State considering they’re making wholesale changes along the offensive line for this game AND are down both of their top two running backs. A familiar name to most will start in the Wazzu backfield with former Wisconsin transfer Nakia Watson handling most of the workload. I’ve never heard of backup Jouvensly Bazil, so I wouldn’t even know how to project him in this game, but sounds like it should be mostly Watson in the backfield. One would think a Pac-12 offensive line should be able to handle a MAC defensive front, but WSU will be without three starters, and will shuffle around the remaining starters to spots they didn’t play at during the regular season. 4 of the 5 did start at least two games in 2021 so it’s not a totally green group.
Even with the impending weather, my guess is we will still see the same Run-and-Shoot-esque offense that has been employed much of the year, meaning Jayden de Laura will throw everything within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Projections indicate to start de Laura at 28 fantasy points, and that makes sense given Central Michigan finished dead last in the MAC, allowing 266 YPG through the air and nearly 27 FPPG to opposing QBs. If the weather is terrible, though, and everything is near the LOS, maybe it would make sense to play some of the WRs without de Laura? This isn’t the narrow passing funnel that we are used to seeing from the RnS where just the slot receivers are getting peppered with targets. Still love both Travell Harris and Calvin Jackson as options, particularly in PPR formats, we have both De’Zhaun Stibling and Donovan Ollie contributing each week. Stribling finished third on the team with 69 targets while Ollie tied a season-high seven targets in the blowout vs. Washington (his best performances have come in garbage time fwiw).
CMU:
Is there any more analysis needed with the country’s leading rusher in Lew Nichols at this point in the year? Be contrarian in GPPs and play Daniel Richardson and the Central Michigan passing game is not advisable by me in this situation with the weather. Matchup dictates starting Nichols here too against a Washington State defense that allowed 19.7 FPPG to RB1s on the season and were 92nd in Rush Play Success Rate defensively. Targets were down in November with just 8-of-44 targets coming in the final four games, but we know Nichols is always a threat coming out of the backfield which boosts his value. Know we can always take depth charts – especially this year – with a grain of salt, but all the normal starters at receiver are included, meaning we should see the full arsenal of Kalil Pimpleton, Dallas Dixon and JaCorey Sullivan. Arguments can be made for all three receivers here. Pimpleton led the team in targets (100) and we get added value potentially with his usage on the ground (two rushing TDs) and as a special teams returner. Dixon was second on the team in targets (70) and touchdowns (8) but his production really faded towards the end of the year – no more than four targets in any of the last six games. With how bowl season as gone, he’ll be the slate-breaker of the three. Sullivan led the Chips with 10 touchdowns and has the best matchup of the three vs. the lowest-graded defensive back in the Washington State secondary per PFF. Just one tight end topped 10 fantasy points vs. the Cougars this year but Joel Wilson came on strong late with four receiving touchdowns in the final five games. Averaged just four targets per game.
Cincinnati vs. Alabama
Point-Spread: Bama -13.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Weather: Dome
Cincinnati:
If Cincinnati is beating the Tide on Friday, it will be with the arm/legs of senior QB Desmond Ridder. The lone weakness to the Alabama defense resides in the secondary that ranks 61st in pass yards allowed, 68th in pass efficiency and 41st in Pass Play Success Rate. Three quarterbacks this season have topped 30+ fantasy points against the Tide this season, two of which are dual threats like Ridder in KJ Jefferson and Hendon Hooker. I don’t think Cincinnati has the weapons on the outside to where Bama has to drop defenders into coverage, so they can put most of their focus into stopping Ridder and Jerome Ford – who does NOT want to be called an Alabama transfer anymore. From a motivational standpoint, I like Ford here, who wants to put up a good showing against his former team. Numbers-wise, he’s an easy fade for me against an Alabama defense that has allowed just one team this season to rush for more than 110 yards against them. Will Cincinnati study the game film from the Florida matchup earlier in the year where the Gators rushed for 246 yards – coincidentally with another dual-threat QB? I’ll be fading Ford here as Bama allowed the third fewest fantasy points this season to opposing running backs and Cincinnati’s offensive line was just 46th in Line Yards. Think the Bearcats have a tough time blocking Will Anderson and Co.
Tight ends might be the plan of attack for the Bearcats with a pair of talented options in Josh Whyle and Leonard Taylor. Alabama allowed 8.5 FPPG to opposing TE1s during the regular season, tied for 11th most in the country, and Georgia’s Brock Bowers was targeted 15 times in the SEC Championship. Alec Pierce is really the only Cincinnati receiver of interest, and his biggest performances have come in the biggest games, including 144 yards at Notre Dame and 136 yards in the finale vs. East Carolina. Michael Young, Tre Tucker and Tyler Scott are all ancillary pieces that have far too infrequent production to be relied upon.
Alabama:
I’m still mad at myself for not stacking the Alabama passing game in the SEC Championship vs. Georgia with a less-than-100 percent Brian Robinson in the backfield vs. the best run defense in the country. Are we thinking the opposite happens on Friday with the Tide looking to dominate the trenches against a G5 opponent with arguably the best secondary in the country? Cincinnati only allowed 13 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season and were 27th in Rush Play Success Rate, but that front seven struggled some in the second half of the season. Meanwhile, the Alabama offensive line is coming off its best game of the year arguably vs. Georgia, having not allowed a sack and topping 100 rush yards as a team. Love Robinson here at full strength as a two-touchdown favorite to get 20+ carries.
If the matchup with Georgia was any indication, it will be JaCorey Brooks starting opposite Jameson Williams on the outside, as the freshman saw considerably more snaps than any other wideout. Considering the matchup with Sauce Gardner and Coby Bryant + pricing with Williams being the highest-priced WR on the slate, I think it best to fade both players and look towards some of the secondary pieces in the passing game. Bryce Young won’t be held down by any defense the way he’s playing of late. No coincidence that the top fantasy producing WRs against the Bearcats have been slot receivers where Slade Bolden resides. DJ Matthews (Indiana), Ryan O’Keefe (UCF) and Braden Lenzy (ND) posted three of the top four fantasy outputs against Cincy this season and all saw significant snaps in the slot. Probably too pricy for a player that has not scored more than 10 fantasy points in a game all season, but worthy of consideration. Cincinnati fared well vs. tight ends, allowing just 3.4 FPPG, but there is little doubt both Cameron Latu and Jahleel Billingsley will be involved in the game plan Friday as it will be all hands on deck without Metchie.
Georgia vs. Michigan
Point-Spread: UGA -7.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Weather: 75 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
UGA:
Everything I’m reading and have been told from our UGA fans on the site Discord is that Stetson Bennett will get the nod on Friday as expected, but the leash will be far shorter than in recent games given the circumstances. Situation with JT Daniels remains the same as it was towards the latter part of the regular season – he’s gotten a bunch of first-team reps in practice and should be ready to go if Bennett struggles. And with the gravity of the situation, Georgia coaches likely will have a quick hook. That alone probably takes him out of the equation for me, not even considering the fact that he faces a Michigan defense that allowed just 16.6 FPPG to opposing QB1s during the regular season.
Important piece of news with Daxton Hill expected to be available on Friday per Michigan’s 247Sports site so that adds another talented defender to the Wolverines’ secondary. And there’s a good chance that it is Hill being matched up with All-American tight end Brock Bowers. The talented freshman is good enough to win any matchup but having Hill available to shadow him downgrades his value, and he’s already too pricy at $7k. Should see low ownership in GPPs and was heavily targets vs. Bama with 15 targets – next closest pass-catcher had just five. Michigan allowed just 4.1 FPPG to opposing tight ends on the season so they’ve held the position in check. I might look towards fellow tight end Darnell Washington at $3,200 who did catch a touchdown pass against Alabama in the SEC Championship and reportedly had one of his best weeks of practice.
Georgia is expected to have their full complement of skill position players available so that means a three-headed backfield of Zamir White, James Cook and Kendall Milton. I maintain that this matchup is a good one for Cook, the best pass-catcher of the group against these Michigan linebackers that do not fare well in coverage. With Bowers garnering a ton of attention, it will be easy to forget about Cook coming out of the backfield who has arguably been UGA’s best running back this season. We saw in Week 13 what Ohio State did featuring TreVeyon Henderson who posted 5-54-1 as a receiver. If you think Georgia blows out Michigan, Milton could be in play at min pricing, but he’s been a distant third in reps this season when healthy.
Don’t see any real edge right now with the WRs as six different wideouts saw between 20 and 37 snaps vs. Alabama. Purely speculation, but Georgia really ramped up George Pickens reps towards the end of the season in preparation for this moment. He’s their best playmaker outside of Bowers and would be the top choice amongst the six options. Kearis Jackson, Jermaine Burton, Ladd McConkey, Adonai Mitchell and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint should all see playing time if the SEC title game was any indication. The Wolverines allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers in the country.
Michigan:
Dilemma – Go with our season-long rule of fading any and all opponents facing the Georgia defense or go with my heart and analyze my beloved Michigan Wolverines. Firmly believe we have a chance at winning this game, but I think it’s a full team fade here with the implied team total of 19 points. Absolutely love Hassan Haskins and he’ll have less than 1 percent ownership on Friday, but it’s for good reason against this Georgia defense that allowed just 6.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Can I see a path behind the best offensive line in the country where Haskins gets to 80 yards and a TD? Yes, but that doesn’t pay off $8,100. Blake Corum remains underpriced at $4,400 and should be 100 percent healthy with this time off since the Big Ten Championship. My assumption is he’ll get utilized in the passing game to spread out the defense, but that part of his game has been minimalized by the presence of Donovan Edwards who has proven to be an exceptional pass-catcher with 15 catches on 18 targets in the last three games. Defeating the UGA defense straight-up is a tall task and OC Josh Gattis may need to open up the bag of tricks on Friday night. Think the Bulldogs saw the 75-yard touchdown pass thrown by Edwards vs. Iowa in the B1G Championship? Game-script likely sets up for Cade McNamara having to throw more than usual, but UGA is just as good defending the pass, allowing 10 FPPG to opposing QB1s during the regular season. Mix in the fact that we should see some of backup J.J. McCarthy in the game plan and I don’t think McNamara is playable. No receiver has more than 19 percent of the target share with the top wideout – Cornelius Johnson – tied for the team lead with just three touchdowns. Michigan spreads the ball around too much to roster any pass-catcher. Johnson > Roman Wilson > Erick All > Mike Sainristil is the order of priority. And that priority is not high at all.
GO BLUE!!!