Maryland vs. North Carolina State
Point-Spread: NC St -1.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: NC St 23.5 – MD 22
Weather: 54 degrees / 13% rain / 2 mph winds
Maryland:
Top Play(s) – WR Jeshaun Jones ($5,700) Season finale a precursor of what to expect on Friday? 9-152-1 on 12 targets in Week 13 vs. Rutgers for Jones, and that was with Dontay Demus and Jacob Copeland in the lineup. Neither will be in this game, along with Rakim Jarrett. That’s 88 vacated receptions and 32% of Maryland’s receiving production for the season.
Fade – RB Roman Hemby ($6,900) This is more of light exposure than an all-out fade with Hemby given the uncertainty with many teams on this slate with opt-outs, etc. You’re getting 5 fantasy points or 20 fantasy points, there is no in-between for Hemby it feels like. Strong lean towards the former here against an NC State defense that was 23rd in rush play success rate, seventh in rush explosiveness allowed and gave up only 12.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s during the regular season. But we also know Hemby is getting 15 touches in this game which doesn’t rule him out completely
Bargain Bin – TE Corey Dyches ($4,200) Finished third on team in targets (48) and receptions (35) and won’t have to share the tight end position as CJ Dippre recently committed to Alabama via the transfer portal. A versatile athlete that played wide receiver at times during the offseason, Dyches will be the secondary option in the passing game behind Jones.
Pivot Play – QB Taulia Tagovailoa ($7,800) Just never been a fan of Taulia Tagovailoa or this offense, but he did close the year on a high note, completing nearly 70% of his passes with three touchdowns against two above average defenses in Ohio State and Rutgers. NC State is 18th in pass play success rate, but they also allowed 30 fantasy points to Emmett Moorhead, Grant Wells and DJ Uiagalelei in their matchups.
Best of the Rest – WR Tai Felton ($3,500) Cannot locate the depth chart but appears Tai Felton will nab one starting spot after playing 58 of the 94 snaps in the finale vs. Rutgers. He was a rotational piece for much of the year, catching 19 passes on 26 targets. Looks like freshman Octavian Smith Jr. ($3,000) would nab the third starting job in the slot as he posted 4-79-0 on five targets in Week 13. HC Mike Locksley said expect to see plenty of underclassmen that maybe we haven’t seen much this year. Could that mean 4-star freshman Ramon Brown ($3,000) who saw his most significant action vs. Rutgers, rushing for 51 yards on eight attempts. Would be more interest there if not for the stout NC State defense.
Injury Notes – Dontay Demus, Rakim Jarrett and Jacob Copeland all opted-out while CJ Dippre is off to Alabama via the transfer portal.
NC State:
Top Play(s) – RB Michael Allen ($4,300) This is a perfect showcase scenario for someone like the 4-star freshman running back who saw extended run late in the year. Preface by saying this is far from a must play because of how ineffective NC State is running the football the last two seasons. But we know without a doubt that Allen is getting double-digit touches on Friday, facing a Maryland defense that allowed 19.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s during the regular season. Just someone to mix into your multi-GPP lineups.
Fade – QB. No depth chart is being released and Dave Doeren is keeping it under his vest as to who will be the starting quarterback between MJ Morris ($5,800) and Ben Finley ($5,000). I would lock Morris if we get word he is the starter based on his potential and pricing. But reading tea leaves it does appear it might be Finley getting the start with packages for Morris despite the true freshman getting a full bill of health. I don’t understand it, but we’ll see leading up to game time. Maryland had excellent play in the secondary this season, allowing just 21.4 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. They will be down one starter in the secondary. My tune on this changes if we get word of a confirmed starter in Morris, but potentially seeing a split means…I’m out.
Bargain Bin – TE Ced Seabrough ($3,300) Longest of longshots. The 6-foot-4 sophomore saw a significant uptick in playing time during the second half of the season with Trent Pennix on the shelf and don’t think Pennix will be available on Friday. Caught two passes on three targets in the finale vs. UNC. I won’t have any exposure here.
Pivot Play – WR Darryl Jones ($4,600) Revenge game factor for Jones facing his former team. Finished fourth on the team in targets (44) and third in receptions (27) and should see an uptick with 47 vacated targets gone from the lineup as Devin Carter hit the transfer portal. Jones now is the team’s top red-zone threat at 6-foot-3.
Best of the Rest – WR Keyon Lesane ($4,200) Lesane finished second on the team in targets and receptions. He’ll start opposite Jones on the outside. WR Thayer Thomas ($6,200) is the ultimate boom/bust type that will have next to nothing in terms of ownership because of his salary. Led the Wolfpack in every receiving category but posted less than five fantasy points in five games this season. I wouldn’t be entirely shocked either if Thomas was a late opt-out. RB Jordan Houston ($5,500) is a rotational player that is the starter in name only. Allen will get more carries, though Houston has proven to be an adequate option out of the backfield as a pass-catcher.
Injury Notes – Stay tuned at QB. WR Devin Carter hit the transfer portal and will not play. Barring a major surprise, doesn’t appear that RB Demie Sumo or TE Trent Pennix will be available due to injury. This roster is messy right now and we don’t have a depth chart or much clarity.
Pitt vs. UCLA
Point-Spread: UCLA -7.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: UCLA 31 – Pitt 23.5
Weather: 51 degrees / 19% rain / 8 mph winds
Pitt:
Top Play(s) – RB Rodney Hammond ($5,700) All those yards Izzy Abanikanda racked up this season? Those may not have happened had Rodney Hammond not gotten injured. Remember all the way back to that Week 1 game against West Virginia? Hammond was the better player. He’ll start with Abanikanda out, and 20 carries should be a lock here I would think. Doesn’t appear UCLA had many opt-outs of importance on the defensive side heading into this matchup, and Pitt will be down at least one starter on the OL. Still like Hammond here facing a UCLA defense ranked 80th in rush play success rate and allowed 18.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Fade – QB. Fade all around. Doesn’t matter who starts between Nick Patti or Nate Yarnell. Don’t even bother.
Bargain Bin – TE Gavin Bartholomew ($3,700) One of the bigger busts in college fantasy football circles as Bartholomew was projected as a top 15 tight end this season. Due in part to the quarterback play, but this just did not pan out as Bartholomew posted just 31 receiving yards in the final five games combined. UCLA did allow five different tight ends to score double-digit fantasy points, though, and we know Bartholomew will be on the field which is half the battle this time of year.
Pivot Play – WR Jared Wayne ($7,000) This one is tough. Probably best to play it safe and fade, but we also have massive upside as shown late in the year with Wayne’s 50-point fantasy performance. HC Pat Narduzzi declined to comment on Wayne’s bowl game status earlier in the process, but we do have confirmation (via Twitter) he’s on location and practicing. Need confirmation here Wayne’s a go before locking him in.
Best of the Rest – WR Konata Mumpfield ($5,400) If we get word Wayne is out, I do think the former Akron transfer is a very strong pivot that will still be low owned. Second on team in receptions (52) and targets (73), though just one touchdown this year because of his 8.3 aDOT. Everything was around the line of scrimmage. WR Bub Means ($3,800) will start in the slot, finishing third on the team with 23 receptions on 39 targets. Pitt lost two key backup receivers to the portal, so we could see this top starting group for the majority of the game. RB C’Bo Flemister ($3,600) will get rotational reps behind Hammond.
Injury Notes – Kedon Slovis transferred to BYU. Izzy Abanikanda opted out.
UCLA:
Top Play(s) – QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson ($9,600) Get ready for silly season here. We dealt with this UCLA nonsense during the regular season in meaningful games, so I’m tempted to just avoid this altogether. As of Wednesday, we saw via Twitter that the UCLA offense was mostly intact and practicing. According to friend of the site, Thor Nystrom and his CFB Bowl Bible (link) he’s putting DTR’s chances of playing at around 75%. That’s good enough for me with DTR probably being a third-day NFL Draft pick at best. He’s got little reason to opt out. And BY FAR, the best QB on the slate.
Fade – See below at the pivot section.
Bargain Bin – RB TJ Harden ($3,800) See more below as to why we like this play. The 210-pound freshman got some run this season with Charbonnet being out or limited and looked good in his appearances with a 6.5 YPC average. Seems like UCLA could dip into the portal for a running back, but Harden will be in contention to start in 2022. Pitt has a very good rush defense, ranked inside the top 20 in rush play success rate and gave up just 11.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s. But UCLA will also have their entire offensive line and Pitt lost a ton on defense due to a multitude of reasons. I’ll have a ton of exposure here.
Pivot Play – Fading Zach Charbonnet ($8,600) Unlike DTR, Charbonnet actually has a chance at being selected on Day 2 of the NFL Draft. It does make sense for him to sit or not play 100% of the game. And according to the link above from Thor, the source put it at about 10% that Charbonnet plays. He is practicing as of this week, but I’ll see it to believe it. I don’t think he’ll play the full game.
Best of the Rest – WR Jake Bobo ($6,900) Bobo is certain to start and play for the Bruins after leading the team in every receiving category, hitting 21% of the team’s target share. Should be featured even more with 61 vacated targets gone with Kazmeir Allen out. WR Kam Brown ($4,200) was second on the team in routes run and third in touchdowns (3) but little production to show for it. Would expect him to be the WR2. WR Logan Loya ($3,300) was targeted two or more times in each of the last five games and should get the starting nod in the slot with Allen out. Selecting a UCLA pass-catcher beyond Bobo is a crapshoot.
Injury Notes – WR Kazmeir Allen ($6,100) Allen declared his intentions to enter the NFL Draft and will not play.
Notre Dame vs. South Carolina
Point-Spread: ND -3.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: ND 27 – SC 23.5
Weather: 74 degrees / 3% rain / 9 mph winds
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – RB Audric Estime ($6,100) or Logan Diggs ($5,400) I’m going to ask around quick to see which one we should prefer between the two. Higher salary for Estime and a higher projection, but Diggs has seen more rushing attempts in the last three games. I would not suggest stacking the two together. One would imagine this is an extremely run heavy approach for the Irish on Friday without their best player on offense in Michael Mayer and the entire offensive line playing. The biggest losses from opt-outs are in South Carolina’s secondary, but this was a good matchup for the ND running game even when the Gamecocks are at full health in the front seven. 120th in rush play success rate defensively and allowed 17.7 FPPG to opposing RB1s during the regular season.
Fade – WRs. The Gamecocks will be without three starters in their secondary that ranked 49th in pass play success rate and allowed just 14.4 FPPG to opposing WR1s during the regular season. Notre Dame’s WR1 isn’t playing on Friday in Michael Mayer, who accounted for 36% of the team’s target share. Nobody else had more than 46 targets for the year – hence why the Irish have already added pieces via the portal and probably aren’t done in that aspect. We don’t have anyone projected here over seven fantasy points in what should be a run-heavy approach.
Bargain Bin – WR Lorenzo Styles ($3,300) That said, I’ll hitch my wagon to Styles if choosing someone from the group. Was targeted five times in the loss to USC in the season finale and his best performance of the year came against Marshall in Week 2 with 7-69-0 on nine targets. Who was the starting QB in that game? Buchner.
Pivot Play – QB Tyler Buchner ($5,900) Very interested in the emotions of Tyler Buchner headed into this game. A projected top 30 fantasy QB by many headed into the year, Buchner was unimpressive in his first two starts before being lost for the regular season due to injury. Now healthy and starting, Buchner should be over the moon at the opportunity. Maybe he still is. But with Notre Dame adding Sam Hartman this week, Buchner knows he will not start for the Irish in 2023, and this might be an audition for his future landing spot. Our interest in Buchner here is as a runner, because if healthy, he could see double-digit carries as he did the first two games. South Carolina will be down multiple starters in the secondary.
Best of the Rest – This late in the year, we’re not doing a deep dive on a Notre Dame position group that’s been insignificant for the entire season. Aside from Styles, they’ll rotate between three other primary options of Braden Lenzy ($3,700), Jaylen Thomas ($4,000) and WR Deion Colzie ($4,200) – neither of whom are likely to put up double-digit fantasy points.
Injury Notes – TE Michael Mayer opted out. QB Drew Pyne transferred to Arizona State. The one I’m unsure of as of Thursday is WR Tobias Merriweather ($3,000) who is coming back from a concussion and is said to be ready to roll per OC Tommy Rees. Is that Friday or 2023?
South Carolina:
Top Play(s) – WR Antwane Wells ($6,300) The former James Madison transfer is undecided where he’ll play ball in 2023, but he’s set to show out in potentially his final game with South Carolina. Just as he did during the month of November where he scored four touchdowns in the final four games with three 100-yard performances. Double digit targets in each of the last two games to close the regular season. Notre Dame is very good on the backend, ranked 10th in pass play success rate, but will be without one starter. WR1s averaged 16.2 FPPG against the Irish this season.
Fade – RB Christian Beal-Smith ($5,000) For starters, I don’t believe South Carolina will run the ball all that effectively against Notre Dame, though the Irish will be without their best front seven player in this matchup. Beal-Smith is trending towards playing Friday but was seen in a walking boot as of mid-December. Sounds like we’re going to see a tandem of CBS and JuJu McDowell ($4,800) in some fashion, potentially in two-back sets. I actually like the South Carolina offense more now with OC Marcus Satterfield off to Nebraska and not calling plays here, but that adds more uncertainty. I’d rather just avoid the situation entirely. 56% of the team’s rushing production this season is gone with MarShawn Lloyd and Jaheim Bell no longer on the team.
Bargain Bin – TE Nate Adkins ($3,500) Quite literally the last man standing. On the two-deep, there’s only one tight end listed and its Adkins as both Austin Stogner and Jaheim Bell hit the portal. Normally I would just bypass this, and probably should anyways, but Adkins did post seven of his eight regular season receptions in the last two games. He’s cheap enough to consider.
Pivot Play – WR Dakereon Joyner ($3,700) Was disappointed to see that Joyner only played five snaps in the finale vs. Clemson, because I would’ve had more confidence, he’d be a bigger part of the game plan Friday. But I still have a feeling he will be considering he’s listed as the backup at two spots on the depth chart because of how depleted the WR corps is. Best part about Joyner – he could see reps at WR, RB and QB like he has in the past. And don’t forget, while it plays no part in this year’s game, Joyner was the MVP of last year’s bowl game against UNC. A lot of risk here if considering Joyner though.
Best of the Rest – QB Spencer Rattler ($7,100) The two best quarterbacks Notre Dame faced this season – Drake Maye and Caleb Williams – both put 40+ fantasy points on the Irish. Outside of that, Notre Dame was very good against opposing QBs, allowing just 20 FPPG. Spencer Rattler isn’t Drake Maye nor Caleb Williams. But he might be the safest QB on the entire slate, depending on DTR’s status. As mentioned already, 12 sacks are gone from the Irish with Isaiah Foskey opting out and will be down one starter in the secondary. He’s in the pool of options.
Injury Notes – WR Josh Vann is ruled out. Austin Stogner and Jaheim Bell hit the portal. South Carolina will be down to one fourth-string tight end. Corey Rucker also hit the portal again. Jalen Brooks is not expected to play. Marshawn Lloyd won’t play either as he’s hit the portal as well.
Ohio vs. Wyoming
Point-Spread: Ohio -2.5
O/U Total: 41.5
Implied Score: Ohio 22 – Wyo 19.5
Weather: 61 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Ohio:
Top Play(s) – RB Sieh Bangura ($7,300) There are more options at RB than WR in the slate, so I debated another selection here as Ohio’s top choice, but I don’t trust CJ Harris to throw the football against anyone. Bangura is one of the safest bets on the slate and should get another 20+ carries in this matchup. Wyoming was 5th in the Mountain West in rush defense and allowed 16.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Fade – Backup RBs and Tight ends. Bangura dominated the volume share in the Ohio backfield at 47%. Don’t get cute with Nolan McCormick. Three-way split at tight end for a group that combined for 34 receptions and three touchdowns. Not worth it.
Bargain Bin – WR James Bostic ($4,200) The cheapest of the four Ohio wide receivers, and accurately listed as he is fourth in most receiving categories. Bostic is also second on the team in routes run in 2022 so he sees just as many reps as any Ohio receiver not names Sam Wiglusz.
Pivot Play – QB CJ Harris ($6,100) I was one of the many that was completely burned by the CJ Harris play in DFS on conference championship weekend. In hindsight, it was embarrassing considering the Bobcats were facing the top secondary in the MAC. Wyoming is not quite as good as Toledo and will be missing some pieces in the secondary who left via the portal. But I don’t know that I trust Harris in this spot still. The hope is the coaching staff uses the same gameplan against Bowling Green in the finale where Harris ran it 12 times for 65 yards and three scores. The Ohio staff completely abandoned those designed run plays against Toledo. Six quarterbacks scored 20 or more fantasy points against Wyoming this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Sam Wiglusz ($7,100) This might be a fade play because of pricing, which is unfortunate because of just how good the former Ohio State walk-on has been in 2022. But all of the Ohio receivers were downgraded the second Kurtis Rourke suffered his season-ending injury. Seven combined targets in the last two games with Harris as the quarterback. Should see very little ownership. WR Jacoby Jones ($5,800) will see even less ownership but has double the targets that Wiglusz has in that same two-game span. Bigger bodied receivers have given Wyoming fits this season. Keanu Hill, Elijah Cooks and Tory Horton all scored 23 or more fantasy points against the Cowboys.
Injury Notes – n/a. No changes to the depth chart since the MAC Championship it appears.
Wyoming:
Most likely a full team fade here with Wyoming down their top four running backs on the roster. We’re not investing anything in the passing game. But the Cowboys know how to produce good fantasy running backs and the two lone options are min-priced in Jordon Vaughn ($3,000) and LJ Richardson ($3,000). Our only hint is the Casper Star Tribune stating that Vaughn is “likely the next man up”. Ohio’s run defense wasn’t that bad this season, ranked 39th in success rate, 43rd in explosiveness and gave up just 16.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Vast improvement over year’s past.
Tennessee vs. Clemson
Point-Spread: Clem -5.5
O/U Total: 63.5
Implied Score: Clem 34.5 – Tenn 29
Weather: 75 degrees / 7% rain / 3 mph winds
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – WR Bru McCoy ($6,500) Preface by saying I really don’t feel the need to force any Tennessee pieces into my lineup despite Vegas’ implied total of nearly 30 points. We’ll see a three-man backfield. Joe Milton isn’t trustworthy. And the Vols will have two new starting pieces at wide receiver. I’d lean the most experienced of the bunch in McCoy here who has already announced he’ll return for the 2023 season. Second on the team in receptions (48), targets (70) and routes run this season.
Fade – RB Jabari Small ($5,800) Clemson allowed the fifth fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing RB1s and are 16th in rush play success rate. Small is expected to play, but I’d venture to guess we see plenty of the younger backs in Dylan Sampson and Jaylen Wright. In argument for Small, Clemson will be missing two key pieces in the front seven in Myles Murphy and Trenton Simpson.
Bargain Bin – WR Squirrel White ($4,800) The 5-foot-10 true freshman will start in the slot and closed the year in style with 11 of his 20 receptions coming in the last three weeks. Led the Vols with nine targets in the finale vs. Vanderbilt.
Pivot Play – WR Ramel Keyton ($4,900) Will undoubtedly see the lowest ownership of the starting three at receiver. And we don’t expect much rotation here, so Keyton will play 80% or more of the offensive snaps. The 6-foot-3 senior has been a backup for much of his career but always came up big this season when counted upon, including a 57-yard touchdown against Akron in place of the injured Cedric Tillman. Same thing against Missouri in the mysterious Tillman absence game, posting 60 yards and another score.
Best of the Rest – QB Joe Milton ($7,400) A 19-point projection at $7.4k really doesn’t get the juices flowing here, not to mention being down the top two wide receivers. Our projection of 250 yards is actually much higher than the FD prop of 219 yards which wouldn’t cut it against this Clemson secondary. The Tigers allowed 22 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season, but that is inflated by the 53-point performance from Sam Hartman earlier in the year. Only one other QB scored 30 fantasy points against this secondary that ranked 22nd in pass play success rate. RB Jaylen Wright ($5,100) averaged 11.3 carries per game this season, but if you don’t like Small in this matchup, probably won’t his backup either.
Injury Notes – Big three are out in Hendon Hooker, Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman. Two backup receivers also hit the transfer portal so the top three of McCoy, White and Keyton should get the majority of the game.
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – QB Cade Klubnik ($6,900) Screw it, this is a showcase game for 2023 to prospective recruits, a few of which are actually still deciding between Clemson and Tennessee. We all know about the Tennessee secondary this season, allowing 287 yards per game, ranked 92nd in pass play success rate and gave up nearly 29 FPPG to opposing QB1s. Tennessee’s rush defense is good enough that I’ll be underweight on Will Shipley here.
Fade – n/a. All of the primary components that’ll play for Clemson are in play.
Bargain Bin – WR Adam Randall ($3,100) With the defections at WR, the 5-star freshman has been getting starting reps on the outside in place of the injured Beaux Collins. As we reiterated, showcase opportunity against a bad secondary. Just seven receptions on 22 targets this season, but as the saying goes….5-star gunna 5-star.
Pivot Play – RB Will Shipley ($7,100) Can see ownership being down on Shipley after his close to the year, rushing for just 18 yards against a terrible North Carolina defense. Now he gets top 20 rush defense in the Vols who ranked 13th in rush play success rate and limited opposing RB1s to 14 FPPG during the regular season. Tennessee will be down their top tackler in Jeremy Banks so that helps.
Best of the Rest – WR Antonio Williams ($5,600) and Joseph Ngata ($4,100) Williams is the WR1 but this is a fun stat for all three of Clemson’s starting wide receivers. WR1s against Tennessee averaged 18 FPPG. WR2s averaged 14 FPPG, sixth most in the country. WR3s averaged 9.1 FPPG against the Vols this season, the most in the nation. Definitely not suggesting stacking the Clemson passing game with multiple receivers but think this keeps everyone in play as an option, even Ngata. We aren’t going to see a big rotation with very little depth behind the top three.
Injury Notes – WR Beaux Collins ($3,000) Arm is in a sling in practice, will not play. Backup WRs Decari Collins and EJ Williams hit the portal, as did RB Kobe Pace.
