Mississippi State vs. Illinois
Point-Spread: Miss St -2.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: Miss St 24.5 – Illini 21.5
Weather: 75 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Mississippi State:
Top Play(s) – RB Jo’Quavious Marks ($5,800) No Dillon Johnson, along with two other Mississippi State backups. Illinois has one of the top rush defenses in the country, allowing just 11.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s, but as we unfortunately saw with Michigan yesterday, many of the Big Ten’s defensive statistics have been inflated by bad offenses. And even if Illinois shuts down the run, Marks is fourth on the team with 52 targets.
Fade – WR Caleb Ducking ($5,300) The yearly trend of the RWR being the WR1 in this offensive system came crashing to a halt around Week 7. Ducking failed to post more than 40 yards in each of his last six games, finding the end-zone just once in that span. Averaged 6.5 targets in the first six weeks and just 3.6 targets in the final six weeks.
Bargain Bin – RB Simeon Price ($3,700) We really like Marks here without Dillon Johnson, but this offensive scheme has predominantly featured two RBs getting a 55-45 share. 5-7 carries and 4-5 targets is the expectation here.
Pivot Play – WR Justin Robinson ($5,300) The former Georgia transfer will step into a starting role with Rara Thomas transferring out, and Robinson saw his reps increase with each passing game from about Week 5 on. I like players that are on an upward trend than what we saw from Ducking.
Best of the Rest – QB Will Rogers ($7,000) Best strategy here if investing in the Mississippi State side is to just play Rogers naked as WR1 Rufus Harvey ($5,400) accounted for just 13% of the team’s total target share. We will see 8-10 different wide receivers for the Bulldogs get 20 or more offensive snaps. Save yourself the headache and just roster Rogers by himself. For a reference point, Illinois allowed just 14 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season, but when facing another air raid offense in Purdue, Aidan O’Connell posted 32 fantasy points. So Rogers is plenty viable.
Injury Notes – WR Rara Thomas ($3,000) Thomas and his 44 receptions and seven touchdowns are on their way to Athens to play for Georgia next season. RB Dillon Johnson ($3,000) will also head elsewhere. Two other Mississippi State running backs hit the transfer portal as well, so this could be the Marks show.
Illinois:
Top Play(s) – Illinois RB1. We have Reggie Love III ($5,200) projected to get the bulk of the workload on Monday, but I’m not convinced. All things equal, Josh McCray ($3,200) is the far better player and is reportedly 100% healthy heading into this matchup. The 240-pound sophomore has been hampered all season by injury but is still considered to be the future at the position next season with Chase Brown departing. This could be a very strong pivot here if most sites have Love projected highest.
Fade – QB Tommy DeVito ($5,900) I would say this season for DeVito went how everyone expected it to. Very proficient throwing the football in a run-based offense, completing nearly 70% of his throws with just four interceptions. Those stats really don’t matter to us in fantasy. Miss State had multiple starters in the secondary announce that they’re entering the NFL Draft but are playing on Monday. The Bulldogs were 37th in pass play success rate this season and allowed just two QB to score more than 30 fantasy points against them in 2022.
Bargain Bin – See above on McCray.
Pivot Play – WR Isaiah Williams ($6,200) The last three weeks weren’t great as Williams posted fewer than 30 receiving yards in each of the last three games, hampered by a 1.0 aDOT in that span. The senior receiver still accounted for 26% of the team’s target share with a team-leading five receiving touchdowns. We are used to seeing trick plays in bowl games, we can all agree? I’d be shocked if the Illini staff doesn’t have something cooked up for Williams as a wildcat quarterback or as a runner.
Best of the Rest – WR Casey Washington ($4,800) Strong close to the year for Washington who saw the most reps of any Illinois receiver not named Isaiah Williams. 13 of his 38 targets for the season came in the last two weeks. WR Brian Hightower ($5,000) was second on the team in targets (54) and routes run but was goose-egged in the finale vs. Northwestern, playing significantly less snaps than normal. Unsure of the reason, but we’re not spending $5k on an Illinois WR2/3 anyways.
Injury Notes – Chase Brown was an expected opt-out. TE Luke Ford ($3,500) and his 10 receptions was a surprise.
Tulane vs. USC
Point-Spread: USC -1.5
O/U Total: 63.5
Implied Score: USC 32.5 – Tul 31
Weather: Dome
Tulane:
Top Play(s) – RB Tyjae Spears ($6,900) No NFL scout here obviously, but I would imagine Tyjae Spears was a fringe NFL Draft prospect heading into this season. And I would venture to guess that’s changed in a big way after rushing for 1,376 yards and 17 touchdowns this season, closing the year with six straight 100-yard rushing performances. AND probably enhances that stock even more after a big performance against a P5 opponent on national television. Lots of motivation for Spears to play well. USC allowed 20.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season – 15th most in the country.
Fade – TE Tyrick James ($4,400) I was really tempted to put James as a pivot play given that USC has allowed the fifth most fantasy points to opposing TE1s this season. But Just look at James’ box scores and it paints a gloomy picture. Six targets the last four games and played just three offensive snaps in the conference title game vs. Cincinnati. James should be $3.4k.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Tulane’s WR rotation has shrunk to where there aren’t any sub $4k options.
Pivot Play – WR Deuce Watts ($5,400) or Shae Wyatt ($5,900) We harped all year to avoid Tulane receivers. Not the case late in the year as the rotation shrank, with Watts and Wyatt becoming the primary options. Don’t know what happened the first four games, the light switch turned on once September ended. Still only averaged 5.3 targets per game but scored a touchdown in seven of the last nine. In the last five games, Watts posted a whopping 21.8 aDOT, finishing the year averaging 18.4 yards per catch. USC is eighth in the country, having allowed 20 plays of 40 yards or more (eyes emoji). 41% of Wyatt’s targets came in the last four games with four touchdowns. Not sure I’d double stack the two receivers with Pratt but would pair at least one with their QB.
Best of the Rest – QB Michael Pratt ($7,200) Highest projected scoring game of the day, and with many of the USC key offensive pieces playing, this could become a high-scoring back-and-forth affair. That means Pratt is needed to throw the football, something that wasn’t always the case in many of Tulane’s double-digit wins in conference play. USC only allowed 22 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season, but really struggled against the better passers on their schedule. Cam Rising scored a combined 90 fantasy points against the Trojans. Jack Plummer posted 37 fantasy points. Jayden de Laura 41 points. If this game shoots out, Pratt will have a monster day.
Injury Notes – n/a. Look to be fully healthy and intact.
USC:
Top Play(s) – QB Caleb Williams ($8,600) Caleb Williams is healthy and “ready to play.” So, we have to proceed as he’s 100% and will play the whole game. Tulane allowed just 21.9 FPPG to opposing QBs this season…but this is the Heisman Trophy winner facing a G5 defense.
Fade – RB Darwin Barlow ($4,900). Thought the TCU transfer might be incorporated more in the rotation after the Travis Dye injury but saw just four offensive snaps in USC’s last game. Austin Jones ($6,200) will handle the bulk of the carries, and this is a prime opportunity to showcase 4-star freshman Raleek Brown ($5,100) who posted a pair of double-digit fantasy performances in the final month. We’ve already seen freshmen have some big outings in bowl season, most notably Gavin Sawchuk (Oklahoma) who didn’t do anything in the regular season. Tulane was very strong against the run this season, allowing just 11.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Not a single RB scored over 20 fantasy points against the Green Wave in 2022.
Bargain Bin – WR Kyle Ford ($4,500) Another homecoming here for Ford who saw an uptick in production this second half of the season with 26 of his 30 targets coming in the last six games. Always love a storyline scenario.
Pivot Play – WR Mario Williams ($6,100) Everyone will be on Tahj Washington here (and rightfully so) or try and go cheap at WR. Williams came back from injury and did post 3-51-1 on three targets in the conference title game vs. Utah and played the third most offensive snaps behind Addison and Washington. He’ll be a top two target Monday for Caleb Williams at lesser ownership than he should have.
Best of the Rest – WR Tahj Washington ($6,700) I might lock Washington into my lineups. For starters, he’ll have 40+ family and friends in attendance for this Texas homecoming. Secondly, Washington was a star when Jordan Addison was out of the lineup with 14 receptions on 19 targets with consecutive 100-yard performances and three touchdowns against Arizona and California.
Injury Notes – Only opt-out of importance was Jordan Addison.
LSU vs. Purdue
Point-Spread: LSU -15.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: LSU 35 – Purd 19.5
Weather: 76 degrees / 1% rain / 5 mph winds
LSU:
Top Play(s) – QB Jayden Daniels ($7,700) Second-highest projected QB on the slate for us (though I do like his under of 280.5 passing yards). Daniels suffered an ankle injury in the season finale vs. A&M, and then re-aggravated that same ankle injury in the SEC title game vs. Georgia. But as of Saturday meeting with the media, Daniels proclaimed to be 100% healthy. Purdue will be without its top cornerback and defensive coordinator. Can play Daniels naked because of his rushing ability, though I question how much he’ll put his body in harm’s way here.
Fade – RB Noah Cain ($4,700) Sounds like Josh Williams ($5,400) is set to play on Monday after being banged up late in the year, pitting Noah Cain as a distant third in LSU’s three-man rotation at running back. All three LSU running backs had between 70-97 rushing attempts for the year, and that’s not even factoring in the 76 rushing attempts from Daniels. In playing an LSU running back, it would be Williams who scored a touchdown in four of the last six games after taking over the starting RB1 job in Week 5. The Boilermakers struggled defending the run in its last two games, allowing five yards a carry to both Indiana and Michigan. Senior defensive end Jack Sullivan leads the group with 5.5 sacks and seven tackles for loss.
Bargain Bin – WR Kyren Lacy ($3,600) The former Louisiana transfer only saw rotational reps this year, finishing with 22 receptions on 31 targets, but will enter the starting lineup as he sits behind Boutte on the depth chart.
Pivot Play – WR Malik Nabers ($6,500) Second-highest salary on the slate may see pricy for Nabers, but he’ll be the certified alpha in the room with Boutte and Jenkins out of the picture. Was a breakout sophomore campaign for Nabers with 63 receptions for 854 yards on 88 targets. Saw six or more targets in all but three games this season and would expect that number to tick up even more in this matchup. Purdue being without their best cover corner also helps matters.
Best of the Rest – WR Brian Thomas ($4,000) Listed as questionable on DK, but don’t see any indication that Thomas won’t play. A 4-star recruit with size and athleticism, but that hasn’t translated to the field, posting under 40 yards receiving in each of the last seven games. I’d probably lean Lacy over Thomas in this situation, but he’ll see starter reps. TE Mason Taylor ($3,800) finished third on the team in targets (49) and receptions (33). Purdue struggled to defend the tight end position this season, allowing 8.6 FPPG. RB John Emery ($5,000) started to see more involvement once he overcame the fumbling issues, scoring four rushing TDs in the final three games. A true RBBC, though, for LSU.
Injury Notes – WR Jaray Jenkins ($4,900) Jenkins opted out and will not play. Kayshon Boutte ($5,800) declared for the NFL Draft. TE Jack Bech ($3,500) transferred to TCU and will not play. That’s 31% of LSU’s receiving production not available.
Purdue:
Top Play(s) – RB Devin Mockobee ($6,600) Quite simply the only playmaker Purdue has left at this point. Don’t have much confidence of Purdue running against LSU in normal circumstances as RB1s only averaged 14.2 FPPG against the Tigers this season. That said, LSU will be without at least three key contributors in the front seven. And who knows maybe there’s another trick play in the book featuring Mockobee, ala the fake fleaflicker in the Big Ten title game. Purdue will absolutely be diving into the bag of tricks with Drew Brees (yes, you heard that right) coaching this game.
Fade – QB Austin Burton ($5,200) Backup QB. Best WR not playing. Best TE not playing. Don’t even try it. With O’Connell sitting, the Boilermakers will be turning to senior Austin Burton at quarterback, who completed 24-of-32 attempts in 2022. In his lone start this season in place of O’Connell, Burton performed well with 166 yards and three scores in a win over Florida Atlantic. He can run, but a below average passer facing an LSU secondary that ranked 13th in pass play success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Mershawn Rice ($4,700) Played the second most snaps of any Purdue WR behind Charlie Jones in the B1G title game, finishing with 4-46-0 on six targets. We’re playing a guessing game with the Purdue receivers, so might as well roll with what happened most recently.
Pivot Play – WR TJ Sheffield ($5,100) If there is a “Charlie Jones light” in this matchup, one would think its TJ Sheffield who sits third on the team in targets (63), receptions (39) and touchdowns (3). I would tread very carefully here with a backup QB and not invest a ton of exposure.
Best of the Rest – WR Tyrone Tracy ($4,300) Tracy did not have the season most anticipated with some believing he could be WR1. Only played 19 snaps vs. Michigan last time out, so he’s been passed up by several other WRs on the depth chart. TE Paul Piferi ($3,200) will step in as TE1 in place of Payne Durham. TE usage has been featured extensively in the past system under Jeff Brohm, but Piferi was targeted all of 11 times this season.
Injury Notes – Big three have opted out in preparation for the NFL Draft in Aidan O’Connell, Payne Durham, and Charlie Jones.
Penn State vs. Utah
Point-Spread: Utah -1.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: Utah 27 – PSU 25.5
Weather: 58 degrees / 1% rain / 8 mph winds
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – RB Nick Singleton ($6,400) Really is a guessing game as to which running back will have the big day between Singleton and Kaytron Allen ($6,100). We actually have Allen projected higher at a lower cost. I cannot escape reading Penn State previews and multiple writers suggesting that Singleton will have a monster day against this Utah defense. There are not any opt-outs of significance in the Utah front seven, and the Utes allowed just 10.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s during the regular season. Strategy with this duo is play one or none. Do not stack both.
Fade – QB Sean Clifford ($6,500) Too many options at QB at this slate to even consider Clifford here. Utah was 28th in pass play success rate in 2022, giving up 22.5 FPPG to opposing QBs. True dual threats gave Utah the most fits with Caleb Williams, DTR and Anthony Richardson as the only QBs posting more than 25 fantasy points. Only way you play Clifford here is a game stack.
Bargain Bin – Tight ends. Penn State will use three of them. Roll a dice and hope you land on the correct one. Between Theo Johnson, Tyler Warren and Brenton Strange, a Penn State tight end has scored a touchdown in four straight games. They’re needed following the Parker Washington season-ending injury.
Pivot Play – WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith ($5,200) KLS takes on the WR2 role with the aforementioned Washington out of the lineup. Nearly 1/3 of his season-long targets came in the last two weeks, including a season’s best 83 yards and a touchdown vs. Michigan State.
Best of the Rest – WR Mitchell Tinsley ($6,000) Tinsley was a productive addition to the Nittany Lions roster this season but was a clear downgrade from Jahan Dotson. Closer to a fade than a play for me against a Utah secondary that allowed just one receiver to score 20 fantasy points or more during the regular season.
Injury Notes – RB Keyvone Lee ($3,300) Lee is expected to play as of Sunday afternoon but would be shocked if he saw more than five carries. The torch has been passed here to the two stud freshmen.
Utah:
Top Play(s) – RB Ja’Quinden Jackson ($5,300) Kudos to DraftKings for finally switching Jackson to his proper position at running back. Whereas a complete fade at his previously listed position, Jackson is squarely in play as he’s looked like the best Utah running back during the month of November with 76% of his season-long rushing yards coming in that span. We’ll still see a committee approach from the Utes with Micah Bernard ($5,900) but there’s a talent discrepancy between the two. Penn State is a formidable rush defense, but the Utes combat that with an offensive line that was 7th in line yards, 32nd in stuff rate and 5th in rush play success rate. Potentially throwing a wrench into this is freshman Jaylon Glover ($4,100) back practicing with the team after not playing in the conference title game. Think he’s a distant third right now behind the other two though.
Fade – WR Jaylen Dixon ($5,600) Just way too expensive for someone that scored double digit fantasy points just once all year long. Played a season-high in snaps against USC with seven targets (also a season high) but game script played a major role as we saw over 120 combined plays run in that game. This will be much slower paced.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – TE Thomas Yassmin ($5,100) Not Dalton Kincaid, but Yassmin displayed some intriguing talent the last month of the season, scoring a touchdown in each of his last four games, including a 60-yard scamper in the Pac-12 championship vs. USC. Simply put – whomever has stepped into the TE1 spot for the Utes the last few years has been productive, and Yassmin looks to be next.
Best of the Rest – QB Cam Rising ($7,500) Penn State allowed just 15.1 FPPG to opposing QBs and didn’t allow a single quarterback in the country to score more than 25 fantasy points against them. That said, the Nittany Lions will be without star corner Joey Porter Jr. who opted out for the NFL Draft. Best guess is this game does not shoot out like last year’s Rose Bowl with Ohio State as the Penn State defense comes into the matchup motivated. I’m fine with having less exposure on Rising. WR1 Devaughn Vele ($6,400) led all receivers with 21% target share and five touchdowns. WR Money Parks ($4,500) began to emerge in the second half of the year as a legitimate WR2 option next to Vele with at least four targets in each of the last five weeks. You can pair Yassmin and a wide receiver together but would not double-stack wideouts.
Injury Notes – TE Dalton Kincaid and RB Tavion Thomas are the only players to opt out on the offensive side.
