Georgia Southern vs. Buffalo
Point-Spread: GSU -4.5
O/U Total: 66.5
Implied Score: GSU 35.5 – Buff 31
Weather: 46 degrees / 1% rain / 5 mph winds
Georgia Southern:
Top Play(s) – WR Jeremy Singleton ($3,000) DraftKings mispricing. The former Houston transfer wasn’t the team’s WR1 like we expected in the preseason, but now assumes that role with the season-ending injuries to multiple WRs in the starting lineup. 30 targets in the last two games along. While I typically like to fade the popular punt plays, Singleton is tough to ignore with his pricing and production. As safe a mid-priced option as you can find this late in the year.
Fade – n/a. Don’t often see this, but we have eight players for Georgia Southern projected at six fantasy points or more. Will everyone hit that mark? Probably not. But that puts nearly everyone in play here based on pricing/production in what should be a high-scoring affair.
Bargain Bin – RWR. The question is…who is it? All things level, WR Marcus Sanders Jr. ($4,200) started over WR Ezrah Archie ($3,000) following the season-ending injury to Derwin Burgess. In the finale, it doesn’t appear Sanders played a single snap, leaving Archie to play 95% of the game. And played well for that matter with 5-71-1 on eight targets. I cannot locate a depth chart, so I’m admittedly unsure of how this one plays out. Is it even worth it? The WR3 for Georgia Southern had 100 targets in 2022, so I’d say yes.
Pivot Play – RB Jalen White ($5,100) Buffalo was actually quite good against the run this season, ranking 64th in rush play success rate and allowing only 13.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s. And White probably won’t get a ton of run considering he did not play in the Week 13 finale due to injury and plays in an offense that ranked 129th nationally in rush play percentage.
Best of the Rest – WR Khaleb Hood ($5,900) With question marks at the WR3 position in an offense that throws the ball 62% of the time, don’t be afraid to roster both Hood and Singleton in the same lineup. Both players posted 100 targets in 2022. QB Kyle Vantrease ($7,500) has the motivation factor in this matchup, facing his former team that he started three seasons for. Will also be facing a secondary without their best player who entered the transfer portal earlier in the offseason. Opposing QBs averaged 28.8 FPPG against the Bulls this season so this is a very favorable matchup for Vantrease against his old squad.
Injury Notes – WR Derwin Burgess Jr. ($3,000) and Amare Jones ($3,000) are out for the season with injuries. We’ll see if we can uncover a status update or a depth chart for the Sanders/Archie decision.
Buffalo:
Top Play(s) – WR Justin Marshall ($5,500) Marshall finished second in receptions and targets but was arguably the team’s top receiving option down the stretch with 33 targets in the final four games. Georgia Southern allowed 19.6 FPPG to opposing WR1s during the regular season – 28th highest FPPG average in the country. Vegas number has grown from 3.5 to 4.5 over the course of the week, and with a depleted RB room, one would think Buffalo will be chucking it around.
Fade – Any WRs beyond the top two. Between Marshall and WR Quian Williams ($5,000), the duo combined for 48% of the team’s total target share. That number jumps to 54% if you eliminate WR3 Jamari Gassett who entered the transfer portal. WR3 Marlyn Johnson will get the starting nod in Gassett’s spot but posted more than 20 receiving yards just one all year. Don’t think it makes much sense rostering anyone outside of Marshall/Williams.
Bargain Bin – WR Mike Washington ($4,200) Debated Washington along with Marshall as Buffalo’s top play here, but the inconsistency with the Bulls running game all year long kept the RB1 out of the top spot. Two saving graces for Washington here which make him a viable option. (1) Pass-catching ability, which was exemplified over the final two weeks with 12 receptions on 17 targets. This Buffalo offense loves to feature its backs in the passing game. (2) Georgia Southern ranked 123rd in rush play success rate defensively, 118th in rush play explosiveness and allowed well over 21 FPPG to opposing RB1s. This is a bad run defense.
Pivot Play – RB Al-jay Henderson ($4,100) For one, you need to ensure Henderson is playing as he did not participate in the Week 14 matchup vs. Akron. But in the last two games played in which both Henderson and Washington were available, it was Henderson who outperformed the latter. This play is probably being a little “too cute” but Henderson will see little to no ownership and there is a better than zero chance he leads the team in rushing.
Best of the Rest – QB Cole Snyder ($5,200) Not a Snyder fan, but he’s cheap, Buffalo is projected to score 30 points and they’ll likely be throwing as a 4.5-point underdog. Georgia Southern is 68th in pass play success rate defensively, so the group is a bit better than the high-level stats would indicate, but the Eagles gave up 31.6 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season. Snyder should find some success here.
Injury Notes – RB Ron Cook Jr ($4,300) Cook has not played since Week 11 and is not listed on the Camellia Bowl game depth chart (three other RBs are). I would not expect him to play.
Memphis vs. Utah State
Point-Spread: Mem -7.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: Mem 34 – Utah St 26.5
Weather: 45 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Memphis:
Top Play(s) – QB Seth Henigan ($7,700) By default because I don’t trust Memphis running backs or receivers. Remember when this was a fantasy hotbed at both running back and wide receiver under previous regimes. HC Ryan Silverfield has destroyed any fantasy relevancy with this team outside of his sophomore quarterback. And this realistically isn’t even that great of a matchup as Utah State allows just 19.8 FPPG to opposing QB1s, are 33rd in pass play success rate defensively and allowed just one opponent this season to throw for over 300 yards.
Fade – Memphis WRs. I’m sure at least one between Javon Ivory ($6,300), Gabriel Rogers ($5,100) and Eddie Lewis ($5,400) will find success on Tuesday. But I don’t see any reason to force either of the three options into my lineups. Ivory led the Tigers with just 18% target share, facing a Utah State secondary that allowed just 14 FPPG to opposing WR1s in 2022 – 13th best in the nation. If you’re hellbent on starting someone, might want to stray from the field and start Rogers here as the Aggies struggled to defense slot receivers. Traeshon Holden and Latrell Caples put up the most fantasy points against Utah State among WRs this season – both of which played in the slot.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – RB Asa Martin ($6,100) I still hate what Ryan Silverfield has done with the program. Remember when Memphis was a fantasy hot bed for CFF goodness at running back and wide receiver? That all evaporated when Silverfield took over the head coaching job. That said, we cannot ignore the matchup Martin had against a Utah State rush defense that has allowed 208 or more rushing yards in four of the last five games. Advanced metrics do show this Memphis running game took steps forward in 2022, and Martin has posted double-digit fantasy points in each of the last five games. Martin remains the starter, but former NIU transfer Jeyvon Ducker ($4,900) is seeing just under 40% of Memphis’ offensive snaps since November rolled around so this is closer to a committee.
Best of the Rest – TE Caden Prieskorn ($6,400) Tough pill to swallow here for a tight end at $6.4k, but Prieskorn has been the most reliable pass-catching option for the Tigers all season. Did fail to hit double-digit fantasy points in three of the last five games, so perhaps defenses have been adjusting. Just two tight ends scored double-digit fantasy points against Utah State all season. First on the team in touchdowns and routes run, second in receptions and third in targets (61). Prieskorn has not found the end-zone in six straight games.
Injury Notes – RB Brandon Thomas ($3,000) Thomas is out for the season due to injury, leaving Martin/Ducker to man the backfield. WR Joe Scates ($3,000) is questionable with an injury as he did not play in the last two games, but is listed on the team’s depth chart. He’s not viable here, but his absence would increase the value to the other Memphis pass-catchers.
Utah St:
Top Play(s) – RB Calvin Tyler ($6,300) Tyler declared for the NFL Draft but took to Twitter to announce that he was participating in the bowl game. Outside of the performance against New Mexico in Week 10 where Tyler was forced out of the game with a concussion, he was outstanding in the month of November with multiple 100-yard rushing performances and six total touchdowns. Tyler will be facing the 27th best rush defense in the country as the Tigers allowed under four yards a carry in each of the final three games and finished 31st in rush play success rate. Still, there aren’t many 200+ carry running backs on this slate, and Tyler has been THE guy for the Aggies late in the year.
Fade – RB Pailate Makakona ($4,100) Makakona will be the RB2 behind Tyler on Tuesday with usual backup Robert Briggs out due to injury. The last time a Utah State RB not named Calvin Tyler had double-digit carries was Week 6.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – QB Cooper Legas ($6,300) Curious to see if Legas has an affinity for bowl games, because the last time he played in one, the junior quarterback was named the MVP, throwing for 171 yards and two touchdowns last year against Oregon State. If the matchup advantages for Memphis hold, Utah State will be forced to throw on Tuesday, facing a secondary that ranked 102nd in pass play success rate and gave up 27.6 FPPG to opposing QB1s during the regular season. Taylen Green, Holton Ahlers and Clayton Tune all had rushing touchdowns against Memphis this season, and Legas can scoot a bit. I’d probably rather play the Utah State WRs naked against this secondary rather than roster Legas, but the matchup dictates he deserves consideration.
Best of the Rest – WR Brian Cobbs ($6,800) I would assume our projection shows Terrell Vaughn ($6,200) listed higher than Cobbs strictly because the latter hasn’t scored a touchdown in six weeks. I’d disagree with the projection as Cobbs continues to pace the Aggies with 70 receptions on 109 targets this season. While this has been a down year for WRs in Blake Anderson’s system, the top three of Cobbs, Vaughn and Justin McGriff ($5,200) have performed adequately, accounting for 70% of the team’s total target share. These are the only three pass-catching options to choose from with Utah State. Memphis allowed 17.2 FPPG to opposing WR1s and 10.2 FPPG to WR2s during the regular season.
Injury Notes – RB Robert Briggs ($3,900) No designation (as of Monday) on DK for Briggs, but he is expected to be OUT due to injury.
Coastal Carolina vs. East Carolina
Point-Spread: ECU -7.5
O/U Total: 64.5
Implied Score: ECU 36 – CCU 28.5
Weather: 40 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Coastal Carolina:
Top Play(s) – QB Grayson McCall ($7,900) I’m listing McCall as the top play here but trying to think of a positive reason for him playing in this game being that he’s already in the portal and appears close (ish) to settling on a future destination. Closer to a fade than a play for me here given the above, plus he’s coming back from a foot injury that clearly limited him in the Sun Belt championship game. A ton of risk for McCall playing the entirety of this football game. All things level, this is a good matchup against an East Carolina secondary that allowed 24 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season and ranked 123rd in pass play success rate.
Fade – RB CJ Beasley ($5,500) Could make the argument that Reese White ($5,600) is also a fade against this ECU run defense that is 15th in rush play success rate and allowed only 14.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s. But with Braydon Bennett back in the lineup, Beasley has fallen to RB3 essentially, and has not scored double-digit fantasy points since Week 6. A Coastal running back hasn’t had double-digit carries in three games now as this is, once again, a full-fledged RBBC.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – RB Braydon Bennett ($5,000) After missing the first 10 games of the season due to unknown circumstances, Coastal has increased Bennett’s reps with each passing game, playing a season-high in snaps in the SBC championship game vs. Troy. Does that trend continue on Tuesday? Don’t expect Coastal to have a ton of success running the football, but Bennett’s been targeted 10 times total in the three games played. Easily the most explosive of the CCU running backs.
Best of the Rest – WR Sam Pinckney ($6,600) Pinckney thrives with a healthy McCall in the lineup, posting 80 yards or more in four of the last five games the duo played together. The former Georgia State transfer led the team with 31% target share and 67 receptions. WR1s averaged 24.3 FPPG against East Carolina this season – tied for fifth most in the nation. Suppose it is debatable as to who CCU’s WR1 is actually with Jared Brown ($6,100) who does have the higher projection at a cheaper price. His production has been down the last three games, but like Pinckney, the numbers look much better with McCall under center. WR Tyson Mobley ($5,800) is the forgotten man at times but posted double-digit fantasy points in three of the last four and does lead Coastal receivers in routes run this season. Been a mix of slot and outside receivers that have killed ECU this season so no distinction there to help us decide.
Injury Notes – n/a. Only significant opt-out for Coastal on the offensive side appears to be their starting center, only emphasizing the notion that CCU should struggle running the ball against the ECU front.
East Carolina:
Top Play(s) – RB Keaton Mitchell ($7,700) Best offensive player on the field, regardless of team, facing a Coastal Carolina run defense that is average across the board. Ranked sixth in the Sun Belt in yards allowed on the ground, 72nd in rush play success rate and 77th in explosiveness allowed. As long as Mitchell is full-go, and we have no reason to believe he’s not at this point, Mitchell is close to a lock. And maybe an audition for future Power 5 schools if Mitchell chooses to enter the portal and chase bigger/better opportunities.
Fade – n/a. Everyone listed for ECU in our projections is a possible option for multi-entry GPP.
Bargain Bin – WR Jaylen Johnson ($4,700) Johnson played 44 of 69 snaps in the season finale vs. Temple, catching two passes for 44 yards and a touchdown. Have not seen anything to indicate he’s questionable as DraftKings’ suggests and should see an uptick with Ryan Jones out of the lineup. Against Temple, no other receiver played more than 20% of the offensive snaps so we saw very little rotation amongst the top three.
Pivot Play – WR Isaiah Winstead ($7,200) and CJ Johnson ($6,900) stack. The ECU duo combined for 48% of the team’s target share and 13 of the 23 receiving touchdowns during the regular season. Take Ryan Jones out of the equation and that’s now 55% of the target share. Juicy matchup for the East Carolina passing game vs. a Coastal secondary that ranked 117th in pass play success rate and 120th in PFF coverage grades. If Troy can put up 350+ against Coastal, ECU should feast, and there is a massive gap between Winstead/Johnson and the third option in the Pirates’ passing attack.
Best of the Rest – QB Holton Ahlers ($7,300) See above. This is the worst secondary in the Sun Belt that made Gunnar Watson look like Joe Naimath. I’m shocked the quarterbacks only averaged 21 FPPG against the Chants during the regular season.
Injury Notes – TE Ryan Jones ($5,300) Jones opted out of the bowl game. Finished third on the team in routes run, targets (59), receptions (42) and touchdowns (4). TE Shane Calhoun ($4,300) will start in his place – not the same player, but a capable one with 22 receptions and a touchdown this season on 26 receptions.
Wisconsin vs. Oklahoma State
Point-Spread: UW -3.5
O/U Total: 43.5
Implied Score: UW 23.5 – OK St 20
Weather: Dome
Wisconsin:
Top Play(s) – RB Braelon Allen ($6,900) Sounds like Allen will play in the bowl game after dealing with shoulder and ankle injuries during the second half of the year. And this obviously is a good matchup taking on an Oklahoma State run defense that allowed the fourth most fantasy points in the country to opposing RB1s. Highly doubt we see Allen get 30 touches given the meaningly bowl game factor + potentially being less than 100%. Allen did shoot down rumors floating around of being a transfer candidate this offseason, but a new staff in town could change his tune in the coming days/weeks. We’ll see here, but leaning towards a fade.
Fade – QB Myles Burkett ($4,500) Simply not starting a true freshman quarterback, in his first career start, playing in a Wisconsin offense, in a bowl game against a P5 opponent. Don’t even care that Oklahoma State gives up over 30 FPPG to opposing QBs. FWIW – Chase Wolf is listed first on the bowl game depth chart, but most believe the staff will want to get a look at Burkett as a potential option down the line (longshot). Wolf has already stated he’s not coming back as a redshirt senior.
Bargain Bin – WR Keontez Lewis ($4,500) Third on team in targets (40) and receiving touchdowns. 23 of Lewis’ 40 targets came in the last four games played and will be the third option in the passing game with two other Wisconsin WRs hitting the transfer portal.
Pivot Play – RB Chez Mellusi ($5,300) Would not be surprised in the slightest if Mellusi ends up leading the Badgers in rushing attempts as he’s done the last two games. Among P5 teams, Oklahoma State ranks 50th of 65 schools, allowing 171.3 yards per game on the ground. Mellusi is an option regardless of if Allen gets a full workload or not.
Best of the Rest – WR Chimere Dike ($6,000) and Skyler Bell ($5,600) Duo combined for 46% of the team target share and 11 of the 20 receiving touchdowns. Sensational matchup against an Oklahoma State secondary that allowed the fourth most fantasy points in the country to opposing WR1s. But this is also Wisconsin. I didn’t have confidence rostering these two with Graham Mertz, I certainly won’t with a backup or potential third stringer throwing the ball.
Injury Notes – RB Isaac Guerendo ($4,700) Guerendo entered the portal a few weeks back and is not expected to play. Primary a special teams contributor but did average eight totes a game.
Oklahoma State:
Top Play(s) – RB Ollie Gordon ($4,500) We’ll see some of Deondre Jackson ($4,000) along with Jaden Nixon ($5,200) but would imagine we see a whole bunch of the 4-star freshman running back with Dominic Richardson now committed to Baylor after departing via the portal. Gordon is out highest projected Oklahoma State player, and is the Cowboys future at the position, but this is a brutal matchup. Wisconsin is 8th nationally in rush play success rate and allowed just 13.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s. From what I can see though, Wisconsin will be without a starting nose tackle and multiple contributors at linebacker.
Fade – QBs. No official starter has been named but looks like we’ll see true freshman Garret Rangel get the starting nod, with Gunnar Gundy also seeing some reps. Neither impressed in brief stints this season filling in for Spencer Sanders against mediocre Big 12 opponents. We’re certainly not risking that here against a Wisconsin defense that allowed just 19 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – WR Stephon Johnson Jr. ($3,600) Played 84 of 87 snaps in the season finale against West Virginia as Bryson Green did not play in the contest. Zero idea as of now if Green will play in the game, and his availability directly impacts if Johnson is a viable candidate to roster or not. Strong lean towards no, regardless of any injuries, with backup quarterbacks playing, but he’s the cheapest potential option on the OSU side.
Pivot Play – WR Braydon Johnson ($6,900) Following his return from injury, Johnson was the most targeted Oklahoma State receiver in the final two games with 11 vs. both Oklahoma and West Virginia. Johnson plays in the coveted RWR positional designation that produced many of Mike Gundy’s WR1s over the years and when in the starting lineup, Johnson has typically been the preferred option among the OSU pass-catchers. With Jaden Bray out for the season and Bryson Green out potentially, I’d imagine Johnson will lead the Cowboys in targets again.
Best of the Rest – WR Brennan Presley ($6,500) Team leader in receptions (63), targets (81) and yards (737), while second in routes run to only Bryson Green. WR John Paul Richardson ($5,700) finished second in targets (79) and third in routes run, with an almost identical aDOT (7.4) to that of Presley. Only difference between the two essentially is the 4-2 advantage in touchdowns for JPR. The above four names should be the core receiving group if Green ends up unavailable.
Injury Notes – Too many to list. Stay tuned to the CFFSite Discord as we’ll post any and all updates. Oklahoma State’s beat writers have been excellent about listing inactives ahead of kickoff.
