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Central Florida vs. Duke
Point-Spread: Duke -3.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: Duke 33 – UL 29.5
Weather: 41 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Central Florida:
Top Play(s) – QB John Rhys Plumlee ($7,500) Hoping we have clarity prior to game time as to the status of JRP who dealt with a severe hamstring injury that clearly hampered his play the last few games of the regular season. A dynamic athlete that led UCF in rushing during the regular season with 841 yards, Plumlee was limited to -7 yards in the finale vs. Tulane and averaged just 6.3 rushing attempts over the final three weeks – 14 attempts per in the nine games prior. Should Plumlee continue to be limited by the hamstring, UCF may give freshman Thomas Castellanos some reps in certain situations as the team’s backup Mikey Keene has since transferred to Fresno State. The hope is that JRP is healthy because this is a Duke defense that possesses a stout run defense and allowed 27.5 FPPG to opposing QB1s during the regular season. Matchup is there for JRP and the passing game.
Fade – n/a. Everyone listed here is a potential option at an implied team total of 30. Nobody is mispriced to where they’re not considerable.
Bargain Bin – WR Xavier Townsend ($3,000) Bowl game depth chart shows the 3-star freshman getting the starting nod in place of Ryan O’Keefe who transferred to Boston College a few weeks ago. Haven’t seen Townsend play but did have a lengthy offer sheet coming out of high school with several big-time P5 programs offering. Finished the year with 11 receptions on 17 targets, including six receptions in a blowout win over FAU earlier in the year. Also had a touchdown run in the conference championship game vs. Tulane.
Pivot Play – WR Kobe Hudson ($6,200) or Javon Baker ($5,700) Might be tentative to start a UCF receiver with JRP potentially being hobbled. But the likeliest scenario here is JRP is playing, but potentially not running as much as we saw the last few weeks. That could spell good news for the UCF receivers as the Knights averaged well over 30 pass attempts per over the last three games. And there are 100+ vacated targets with O’Keefe out of the picture. Duke had all sorts of troubles defending opposing WRs in the ACC, allowing 20 or more fantasy points to eight different wideouts in conference play.
Best of the Rest – RB Isaiah Bowser ($5,600) and RJ Harvey ($5,200) The 20-3 split in rushing attempts in the conference championship game vs. Tulane are not an indication of how this distribution of carries. Harvey was mysteriously absent for about two quarters of the game; I would assume due to some sort of injury. Assuming both are healthy, this should be a 50-50 split as it was in the second half of the regular season. The trouble is the Duke rush defense, ranked 24th in yards allowed per game and 18th in rush play success rate. The Blue Devils were the only team in the ACC not to allow double-digit rushing TDs in the regular season.
Injury Notes – Stay tuned to the JRP news leading up to game time.
Duke:
Top Play(s) – QB Riley Leonard ($7,700) The Blue Devils offer one of the more balanced offenses in the country under offensive coordinator Kevin Johns, ranked third in the ACC in rushing (185 ypg) and sixth in passing (236 ypg), averaging just over 33 ppg. Duke hadn’t averaged more than 30 ppg in a season since 2015. First-year starting quarterback Riley Leonard spearheaded the offensive revival, completing 64% of his passes for nearly 2,800 yards and 20 passing touchdowns, while also leading the team in rushing yards (636) and touchdowns (11). Amazing to think about considering Leonard was in a quarterback competition all the way through fall practices prior to the season opener. If there is an area to exploit on the UCF defense, it would be the secondary that ranks 81st in Pro Football Focus coverage grade and allowing 257 yards per game over the last 10 weeks. That number jumps to 286 ypg if you discount the Navy game where the Midshipmen threw just one pass.
Fade – “QB” Jordan Moore ($4,500) Shame that we can’t play Moore at his conventional position at wide receiver where he made the change from quarterback…IN WEEK ONE. Monster performance in the finale vs. Wake Forest with 8-76-1 on 13 targets, but there are way too many real quarterback options to risk this one.
Bargain Bin – WR Sahmir Hagans ($4,600) Duke didn’t rotate WRs at all in the last two games. Hagans was an integral part of the passing game in the finale with 8-139-2 on 11 targets. More outlier than repeatable as Hagans scored double-digit fantasy points just twice all season, but Duke seemed to settle on a rotation, or lack thereof, later in the year with 60% of the sophomore’s targets coming in the final month.
Pivot Play – WR Jalon Calhoun ($6,000) $6k might seem expensive for Calhoun with only 24% target share and four touchdowns on the season, but our projection calls for 84 receiving yards and the prop markets thought highly enough to listed at 88 yards. Closed the year on a very high note with nine or more targets in each of the last four games. WR1s averaged 16.4 FPPG against UCF during the regular season.
Best of the Rest – RBs. Good luck deciphering this one. Is it necessary to? No, this is a full-fledged RBBC between three options, where it is very likely that the leading rusher could be the quarterback – who did lead the Blue Devils in rushing yards during the regular season. But UCF did struggle down the stretch, allowing 240 or more rushing yards to Navy, USF and Tulane to close the year. If the season finale is the indicator, with all three backs healthy and available, it was Coleman who held the slight edge over Jordan Waters in snap counts and rushing attempts. All three RBs will see time in the backfield.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas vs. Arkansas
Point-Spread: Ark -2.5
O/U Total: 68.5
Implied Score: Ark 35.5 – KU 33
Weather: 52 degrees / 7% rain / 12 mph winds
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – RB Devin Neal ($6,300) Sounds like backups Ky Thomas and Sevion Morrison could get some work, but this was Neal’s backfield to end the year, averaging 21 attempts over the final four weeks. Arkansas already had trouble stopping the run this season, ranked 119th in rush play success rate defensively and now will be without two starting linebackers, one of which was an All-American. I think our 16.7-point projection could even be on the light side here if Arkansas isn’t motivated. Most important note entering this matchup – Arkansas will enter this game with less than 50 scholarship players available.
Fade – n/a. Everyone is priced fairly and expect Kansas to win this game. Everyone listed here is an option.
Bargain Bin – TE Mason Fairchild ($4,300) Arkansas defended the tight end position well this season, but will be without their top two linebackers, nickelback and starting safeties – aka the defenders that would be covering a tight end. Would have very little exposure to Fairchild but did close the year on a high note with 50% of his receptions on the season coming in the last three games.
Pivot Play – WRs. With the defections in the secondary, all three of Luke Grimm ($5,500), Quentin Skinner ($4,700) and Lawrence Arnold ($5,200) are possible options here. Trio combined for 53% of the team’s target share, and really only saw Neal and Fairchild as the additional pass-catching options this year for the Jayhawks. Not much rotation at the WR spots. WR1s did average over 21 fantasy points against the Razorbacks this year – shame Kansas doesn’t really have “a guy.”
Best of the Rest – QB Jalon Daniels ($7,000) Arkansas was better on the backend of the defense but will be without three starters in the secondary. The Razorbacks allowed 22.7 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season, but that included 36 points to Jaren Hall, 30 points to Johnathan Bennett and 28 points to Robby Ashford – all in games where Arkansas did not appear to be motivated whatsoever. Daniels is a legit option and pairable with Neal if you so choose.
Injury Notes – RB Daniel Hishaw Jr. ($3,300) Hishaw suffered a leg injury on the first day of October and has reportedly been taking part in bowl game prep. Doesn’t sound like he’s fully healthy, and doubt he risks playing in an exhibition.
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – RB Raheim Sanders ($6,900) We’ll dive into this situation more, but the Arkansas WR group is decimated. This will be a run, run and run some more approach with Sanders and the entire Arkansas RB group. Kansas allowed 19 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season.
Fade – WRs beyond Matt Landers. So, we do have a depth chart that provides clarity at least. But Arkansas will be without four of its top five options in the passing game with Jadon Haselwood, Trey Knox, Ketron Jackson Jr, and Warren Thompson all not playing for a variety of reasons. That’s 167 targets and 13 of the team’s 24 receiving touchdowns unavailable. Starting in their place will be Jaedon Wilson ($3,000), Bryce Stephens ($4,400) and Nathan Bax ($3,000). I know absolutely nothing about Wilson. Bax is not an option. Stephens has played the most of any option here with eight receptions on 12 targets in 2022. But there is a good chance that Arkansas throws less than 20 passes on Wednesday, and half of those likely go to Landers. Not worth the risk here.
Bargain Bin – RB AJ Green ($3,200) More a fan of Rashod Dubinion ($3,900) than Green personally, but I do think both players will get some run Wednesday in a run-based gameplan for the Razorbacks. Four of the five starting offensive linemen will be available, so I do expect success for Arkansas on the ground. Not a priority play by any stretch, but if in desperate need of a flex play, I think these two could see 5-7 carries each. Kansas was 124th in rush play success rate so Arkansas should feast on the ground.
Pivot Play – QB KJ Jefferson ($8,500) Can’t imagine myself, or anyone else for that matter, have much exposure to Jefferson at his pricing with the depleted WR group. Kansas did rank 104th in pass play success rate and allowed five QBs to score 30 or more fantasy points on them this season, though. With his rushing ability, Jefferson can always get there.
Best of the Rest – WR Matt Landers ($5,800) Kansas allowed 27 played of 25+ yards or more this season to opposing wide receivers, so that plays well into Landers’ 14.2 aDOT and 17.7 YPC average. The Jayhawks allowed 20.9 FPPG to opposing WR1s this season with bigger bodied options like Quentin Johnston, Xavier Hutchinson and Bryce Ford-Wheaton giving this secondary the most fits.
Injury Notes – Too many to list here with opt-outs and injuries. This link should be your bible – https://www.fantasypros.com/2022/12/college-football-bowl-game-player-opt-out-tracker-head-coaching-changes-2022/
Oregon vs. North Carolina
Point-Spread: Oreg -13.5
O/U Total: 74.5
Implied Score: Oreg 44 – UNC 30.5
Weather: 58 degrees / 19% rain / 9 mph winds
Oregon:
Top Play(s) – Bo Nix ($9,400) Our No. 1 projected player during bowl season. And he’s fully healthy. And he’s facing the North Carolina defense. What’s not to love? Yes, worth spending up for. The Heels allowed 30.9 FPPG to opposing QB1s during the regular season. Two lone concerns here are play-caller Kenny Dillingham now the head coach at Arizona State, and Nix potentially not running the ball much as he did earlier in the year to protect his ankle.
Fade – n/a. When your implied team total is over 40 points, everyone is in play.
Bargain Bin – TE Terrance Ferguson ($3,900) Second on the team in touchdown receptions (5), facing a defense that allowed 9.4 FPPG to opposing TE1s. Four different tight ends scored 14 fantasy points or more on the Heels, and figure Oregon will be in the red-zone plenty where the 6-foot-5 Ferguson is at his best.
Pivot Play – WR Chase Cota ($5,100) Will be interesting to see if the 6-foot-4 Cota shifts outside from his normal slot position with the departure of Dont’e Thornton to the transfer portal. Normally, both Cota and Kris Hutson ($5,300) share duties inside. Cota closed the year on a high note with 9-136-1 against Oregon State in the finale and should have prime opportunities to thrive against a secondary that will be without three starters. Even at full strength, the Heels were 108th in pass play success rate and 121st in yards allowed through the air.
Best of the Rest – RB Noah Whittington ($5,000) Whittington was more effective than Mar’Keise Irving ($5,900) down the stretch, averaging more than five yards a carry in each of the last three games, including a 100-yard performance against Washington. We know the situation at running back here – 55-45 split. Don’t be afraid to start either player, or even both in a lineup together as they have some of the highest floors on the entire slate. UNC was obviously equally as poor defending the run, allowing 18 FPPG to opposing RB1s, 97th in rush play success rate defensively and gave up 230 rush yards or more four different opponents this year. UNC actually did a relatively good job holding WR1s in check, allowing just 17.0 FPPG, but that was with Tony Grimes, Storm Duck and Cam’Ron Kelly in the lineup. They are not on Wednesday. WR Troy Franklin ($6,900) and his team leading eight touchdowns and 21% target share should hit double-digit fantasy points with ease.
Injury Notes – Dont’e Thornton is the most notable absence, with backups Byron Cardwell, Seven McGee, Sean Dollars and Jay Butterfield also in the transfer portal.
North Carolina:
Top Play(s) – WR Kobe Paysour ($3,300) No Josh Downs means Kobe Paysour gets the starting nod in the slot for UNC. And luckily for us, we already have evidence of Paysour performing in a starting role this year, posting 13 receptions on 14 targets with a pair of touchdowns against both Appalachian State and Georgia State earlier in the year. Its always dangerous betting on a bargain bin type play this late in the year (Hi, Jeremy Singleton) but Paysour is LEGIT. Listen to these stats, from 247Sports. When targeting Paysour this season, Maye has boasted a passer rating of 120.2, his third-best mark when targeting a UNC wideout, behind Green (144.3) and Downs (135.2). Nickel corner Bennett Williams allowed 43 receptions on 59 targets (73% conversion rate) in coverage this season for Oregon. He’ll be lined up against Paysour.
Fade – RB Elijah Green ($5,700) Realistically, everyone is in play here, including Green who saw 21 of the 23 carries that went to running backs in the conference championship game vs. Clemson. And it’s kinda been that way for the last month or so as the coaching staff as supreme confidence in Green. That said, Green’s averaged just 3.3 YPC in the last two games played and Oregon’s strength is stopping the run, ranked 48th in rush play success rate. Getting 90% of the team’s rushing attempts is huge for DFS, but it’s not a great matchup.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not playing anyone for UNC under $5k unless we get breaking news.
Pivot Play – WR Antoine Green ($7,000) Oregon did a moderate job at limiting big plays during the regular season, ranked 50th in pass plays allowed of 25 yards or more. They’re also 117th in yards allowed per game and will be without top cornerback Christian Gonzalez who apparently might be a Top 10 NFL Draft pick. Sets up well for Antoine Green who could be an NFL Draft early entry candidate with a monster performance. Double-digit targets in his last two games played.
Best of the Rest – QB Drake Maye ($7,900) Not sure there is a DFS soul in the world that didn’t lose money on Drake Maye late in the year. Tough to believe in Maye in this spot without his best receiver and offensive coordinator who left for Wisconsin. This is an Oregon secondary still that ranked 111th in pass play success rate and allowed 24 FPPG to opposing QB1s. Maye returning to the team in 2023 does exude some confidence that he’ll be plenty motivated in this spot, and Downs to Paysour isn’t a devastating downgrade.
Injury Notes – WR Josh Downs ($7,800) Downs opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Nobody else of significance on offense will miss the game.
Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss
Point-Spread: Miss -3.5
O/U Total: 71.5
Implied Score: Miss 37 – Tx Tech 34.5
Weather: Dome
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – QB Tyler Shough ($6,000) Was reported on Tuesday that Behren Morton is healthy and practicing, but this sounds like it will be Shough’s show on Wednesday. Ole Miss ranked 94th in pass play success rate and allowed over 26 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season. At a 25-point projection, Shough is inexpensive for the purposes of this slate and the surest bet among the Tech options.
Fade – WR Xavier White ($4,900) White is listed atop the depth chart and announced he’s coming back as a 5th-year senior, so maybe this backfires with his loyalty to the program. But White was supplanted in the slot by Nehemiah Martinez ($4,000) late in the year, running less routes in each of the last two games. Risky business to roster any Tech receiver given how much they’ll spread the ball around.
Bargain Bin – WR Loic Fouonji ($4,000) Saw an uptick in production the last two games played with nine receptions on 12 targets in his last two games played. The interesting part about his five-catch performance vs. Oklahoma is that it came on just 18 offensive snaps, compared to 74 snaps for Brady Boyd who failed to enter the box score.
Pivot Play – WR Jerand Bradley ($6,100) Got a ton of pub in the preseason, but Bradley really didn’t live up to the hype in 2022 despite leading the team in targets (73) and touchdowns (5). Bradley did seem to reinvigorate his preseason bond with Shough late in the year with 14 receptions in the final three games, including an 8-173-1 performance in the finale vs. Oklahoma. Bradley only accounted for 15% of the team’s total target share, so rostering a receiver for Tech really isn’t necessary.
Best of the Rest – RBs. I compare the Tech running back situation to Brock Bowers. Unless you’re inside the coach’s office or an absolute x/o’s football savant, there is no way of telling who will be the preferred choice here between SaRodorick Thompson ($5,100) and Tahj Brooks ($5,300). The former ended the year with the better performance against Oklahoma, but that means next to nothing in the grand scheme. The biggest question is can Tech run on Ole Miss in this matchup. The Rebels will have most/all of their starting front seven available and were 35th in rush play success rate this season, allowing only 16.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s. I think this is a stay away, personally.
Injury Notes – n/a
Ole Miss:
Top Play(s) – RB Quinshon Judkins ($7,200) Stating the obvious. Tech was a middle of the road rush defense, ranked 58th in success rate, and were gashed on the ground by good running teams (Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas) during the regular season. RB1s averaged over 20 FPPG against the Red Raiders. Tough to fit the high priced QBs with Judkins, but the freshman is the best option on the slate at the position.
Fade – n/a. Can’t make an argument against any Ole Miss player here. Nobody (even Judkins) is a priority play but can mix/match combos with the QB/RB/WRs. Best suggestion I would give is just don’t double-stack Ole Miss receivers. One is more than enough given Ole Miss runs the ball 62% of the time.
Bargain Bin – WR Dayton Wade ($4,100) Ole Miss essentially eliminated the tight end position from the passing offense after Michael Trigg went down and went four-wide in the second half of the year. Because of that, Wade saw a ton of playing time in the month of December, and capped the year with a 8-88-1 performance on 10 targets vs. Mississippi State.
Pivot Play – RB Zach Evans ($5,400) Evans is healthy apparently, and still mulling his future with the program after this season. Wasn’t the year he planned for, but was still effective when on the field, rushing for 900 yards and nine scores. Does he show out for NFL Draft scouts or pack it in for a meaningless game? All we can report is that Evans is healthy.
Best of the Rest – QB Jaxson Dart ($6,700) Interesting spot here for Dart that I’m warming up to as he really played well in the season finale, completing 30-of-38 passes for 250 yards and two scores vs. Mississippi State. Tech allowed 25 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks in 2022 and were absolutely gashed by running quarterbacks. Adrian Martinez had over 100 yards and two scores. Spencer Sanders had 56 yards and two scores. Jason Bean managed 10 rushing yards and a score. WR Jonathan Mingo ($6,300) led the team with 24% target share and five touchdowns. Hit or miss fantasy option. Same goes for WR Malik Heath ($6,600) who was second on the team with 70 targets, and his most memorable bowl game moment to date has been kicking a Tulsa player in the helmet back with Mississippi State. Slot-man Jordan Watkins ($4,500) has converted on all 12 of his targets in the last two games. WR1s only averaged 16 FPPG against the Red Raiders this season with just two receivers topping 20+ fantasy points.
Injury Notes – n/a
Syracuse vs. Minnesota
Point-Spread: Minn -9.5
O/U Total: 41.5
Implied Score: Minn 25.5 – Syra 16
Weather: 44 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Syracuse:
Top Play(s) – n/a. This is a full-team fade as the lowest implied total on the slate for a team that won’t have their best offensive weapon, lost their offensive coordinator to NC State and lost five of its last six games.
Fade – Everyone. See above.
Bargain Bin – RB LeQuint Allen ($4,100) The Gophers ranked 19th in rush play success rate defensively and allowed just 12.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s during the regular season so this isn’t a good matchup for the running back, particularly without Sean Tucker. But LeQuint Allen does have a good bit of talent and could be Syracuse’s RB1 in 2023. A bit on the smaller side at 195 pounds, Allen did average close to seven yards per carry on 26 attempts this season in abbreviated action. The 3-star freshman is an explosive athlete that was recruited by the likes of West Virginia, Rutgers, Virginia and Pittsburgh.
Pivot Play – WR Orondre Gadsden ($6,000) Cuse’s WR1 led the team with 80 targets, six touchdowns and 27% of the target share. Take out Sean Tucker’s numbers and that rises to 32%. For better or worse, Syracuse will at least have its starting quarterback in this matchup so there’s a chance Gadsden is productive. Minnesota allowed the fewest fantasy points in the entire country to opposing WR1s this season. Take that with grains of salt because their schedule also featured Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois and other inept passing attacks.
Best of the Rest – QB Garrett Shrader ($6,300) Don’t like the juju around this Syracuse program after losing five of six and their star offensive coordinator in Robert Anae who left for ACC foe NC State. Reading up, there does seem to be some good rapport between Shrader and quarterback’s coach Jason Beck who was promoted to OC and will call plays Thursday. Maybe that leads to success? No idea. But Minnesota was 18th in pass play success rate this season and allowed just 12.8 FPPG to opposing QB1s – second best mark in the country. To his credit, I thought Shrader played well in the final two games but didn’t run nearly as much as he was in the first half of the year.
Injury Notes – Sean Tucker, Isaiah Jones, Courtney Jackson, and Anthony Queeley are the contributors that will not play.
Minnesota:
We know the drill with Minnesota. As long as Mo Ibrahim ($7,600) is a go, and appears that he will be, that’s all there is needed to know with the Gophers. Haven’t seen any hints he won’t play the entirety of the game to this point. We know this for certain – Big Mo is 32 rushing yards, 10 rushing attempts and one touchdown away from breaking three school rushing records. Ibrahim is 57 yards away from the all-time school rushing record. There is zero doubt he’s attempting to nab all four records on Thursday. I’ll give an ode to two other Gopher players as we did see some signs of life with the passing game late in the year even with a backup QB. The duo of WR Daniel Jackson ($4,800) and TE Brevyn Spann-Ford ($4,200) combined for 44% of the team’s total target share and were targeted 16 times in the finale vs. Wisconsin. Syracuse will be without most of its starting secondary in this matchup.
Oklahoma vs. Florida State
Point-Spread: FSU -9.5
O/U Total: 65.5
Implied Score: FSU 37.5 – OU 28
Weather: 70 degrees / 7% rain / 8 mph winds
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – RB Jovantae Barnes ($4,500) Has the questionable tag on DK, but there are videos out there of Barnes taking first-team reps with Dillon Gabriel in bowl practices so I’m not concerned here. Of the two defensive components, Florida State is worse at defending the run, ranked 80th in rush play success rate but also allowed just 12.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season. And OU is down two starting linemen. Barnes is my favorite play for OU, but it’s closer to a full fade for me.
Fade – RB Marcus Major ($4,300) Major is listed atop the depth chart but feels like a prime transfer candidate. Also listed as doubtful on DK, though I haven’t seen that confirmed elsewhere. Either way, this is a showcase game for the younger options in the OU backfield, not a junior who averaged less than three yards a carry over the last month.
Bargain Bin – RB Gavin Sawchuk ($3,000) Barnes was the preferred choice by the coaching staff this season to see the field early, but there are some that viewed Sawchuk as the better talent coming in. With Eric Gray out and Sawchuk having only played one game this season, we’ll see the 4-star freshman get some reps Thursday. Big risk rostering him in DFS that is probably not worth it, but throwing this name out there. We saw this exact situation last year with Jalil Farooq who had 64 yards in the bowl game despite barely playing in the regular season.
Pivot Play – QB Dillon Gabriel and WR Marvin Mims ($6,800) I simply refuse to lose money anymore to this pairing of the OU starting quarterback and Mims who have cost me countless dollars over the last two seasons. But as we saw in the finale, this can be a deadly combination, combining for over 80 points in the finale vs. Texas Tech. Florida State is very good in the secondary, ranked 40th in pass play success rate and gave up just 13.5 FPPG to opposing WR1s. I’m fading this group but so will others. Best suggestion is if playing one, you have to pair with the other in the hopes this shoots out.
Best of the Rest – WR Jalil Farooq ($5,100) The sophomore receiver finished second on the team in targets (57) and no longer has to share his starting spot with Theo Wease out of the picture. Slot-man Drake Stoops ($4,700) announced he’s returning for his sixth season of CFB and will start inside. Was targeted a combined 19 times in the last two games. I haven’t read anywhere that we should expect much rotation at WR. Mims, Stoops and Farooq should get the majority of the game. TE Brayden Willis ($5,200) led the Sooners in touchdowns (7), was fourth in targets (53) and second in routes run.
Injury Notes – Eric Gray opted out. Theo Wease hit the portal (finally). Biggest development, even moreso than Gray, is that Oklahoma’s two starting tackles both opted out in preparation for the NFL Draft. Florida State is winning this game.
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – RB Trey Benson ($5,400) Benson has a stranglehold on the RB1 job after his performances in the second half of the year, rushing for 100+ yards in four of the last five games. We’ll see a rotation still, because that’s what this scheme does, but Benson is “the” guy. RB1s only averaged 15.9 FPPG vs. Oklahoma this season but the Sooners were 107th in rush play success rate, 90th in explosiveness allowed and 107th in total rush yards allowed per game.
Fade – WR Ontaria Wilson ($5,000) Juice not worth the squeeze at $5k. Failed to catch more than a single pass in five of the last six games played. He’ll start, play 3/4s of the game, but won’t see more than two or three targets.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Nobody below $5k worth considering.
Pivot Play – WR Johnny Wilson ($5,800) The only constant among FSU receivers all year long. And even his production fell flat the last month of the year, with just five receptions on nine targets. Emergence of Benson seems to coincide with this. Led the team with 20% of the target share, five touchdowns and a 15.3 aDOT. Won’t see a ton of targets, but capable of a big play at any moment.
Best of the Rest – QB Jordan Travis ($7,400) Highest floor of any QB on this slate, scoring 20 fantasy points or more in all but two games this season. Has already announced he’ll return for the 2023 season and will be a Top 20 CFF option at quarterback. Oklahoma doesn’t have any significant opt-outs on the defensive side of the ball, though debatable whether that is good or bad. Allowed over 30 FPPG this season to opposing QB1s. Travis is playable with Benson or naked. No need to pair with a WR.
Injury Notes – n/a. FSU should have their full complement of regular contributors available.
Texas vs. Washington
Point-Spread: Tex -3.5
O/U Total: 66.5
Implied Score: Tex 35 – UW 31.5
Weather: Dome
Texas:
Top Play(s) – RB Jonathon Brooks ($4,900) Very excited to see Brooks in this matchup as this is his opportunity to have a leg up on the RB1 job next year to replace Bijan Robinson. A tad on the slender side and needs to put on weight, but players described Brooks as having some of the best vision they’ve seen from a running back not named Bijan. I do not fully trust this Texas passing game with an inaccurate Quinn Ewers and a WR1 in Xavier Worthy who might have one foot out the door already looking at the portal. Washington was moderate at stopping the run this season, ranked 81st in rush play success rate, allowing 15.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Fade – WR Jordan Whittington ($4,900) Simply put, Jordan Whittington just isn’t helping you win a GPP. Failed to hit 15 fantasy points in any game this season despite being second on the team in targets. Why? 8.3 aDOT and one touchdown. He’s dependent on Texas getting to the red-zone because Whittington doesn’t run routes beyond the first-down marker.
Bargain Bin – RB Keilan Robinson ($3,900) Should get the RB2 nod behind Brooks and has proven to be an effective pass-catcher with 14 receptions and three touchdowns on 16 targets this season.
Pivot Play – QB Quinn Ewers ($6,100) or WR Xavier Worthy ($6,300) Similar to Gabriel/Mims, I’m starting both or none here. Sounds like Ewers has been productive with this time in between the regular season finale and Thursday, with a lot of personal reflection. I think the indoor conditions of the Alamo Dome absolutely help here. The Huskies have also not been great in the secondary this season, ranking 74th in success rate, 105th in explosiveness and allow 28.4 FPPG to opposing QB1s. Ewers is cheap enough here to consider as a second QB. Worthy leads the team in target share (30%) and touchdowns (8) but his comments yesterday didn’t move the needle for me in thinking he’ll enter the portal potentially still. If he’s motivated and Ewers is on his game, the Huskies allowed the third most fantasy points in the country to opposing WR1s. Could be a huge day if these two are clicking.
Best of the Rest – TE JaTavion Sanders ($5,500) Potential first-round NFL Draft pick in 2024, imo. Second on the team in targets (66), touchdowns (5), receptions (49) and routes run. Washington did a good job of limiting opposing tight ends where only two players hit double-digit fantasy points against them.
Injury Notes – Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson both opted out, as did tight end Jahleel Billingsley. WR Agiye Hall hit the portal.
Washington:
Top Play(s) – QB Michael Penix Jr. ($8,400) Going to be tough not having Penix and Jordan Travis as my two quarterbacks on the slate because of the high floor they provide. Penix announced he’s returning in 2023 as a potential Heisman candidate and this will be his first appearance in a bowl game. Projection of just 22 points here isn’t great so I can envision a fade here because of pricing. But I don’t see a lot of risk starting Penix here. Texas allowed 21.9 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season.
Fade – n/a. All of the key rotational pieces are options in this matchup.
Bargain Bin – TE Devin Culp ($3,400) Probably not advisable to have any exposure to Culp, but should Jack Westover be out, the tight ends combined for 52 receptions on 105 targets this season. Just one tight end scored double-digit fantasy points against Texas all year.
Pivot Play – RBs. This is a very good Texas run defense that ranked 12th in success rate, 11th in explosiveness allowed and gave up just 15 FPPG to opposing RB1s. But the success of the passing game leads prime red-zone opportunities for both Wayne Taulapapa ($6,100) and Cameron Davis ($5,600) who combined for 23 rushing touchdowns during the regular season. 53 targets in the passing game between them as well. Would not start them together but can mix in match them in multi-entry GPP lineups.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Five wide receivers scored 20 or more fantasy points against the Longhorns this season. Texas’ secondary does appear to be intact for this game, though, with no injuries or opt-outs. WR Jalen McMillan ($7,100) led the Huskies in targets in each of the final three games, and has already confirmed he’ll return for the 2023 season which is huge news. Rome Odunze ($7,300) would be the pivot here because of pricing and McMillan’s emergence. His numbers are nearly identical to McMillan. I would only suggest starting one Washington WR in a lineup. Ja’Lynn Polk ($5,300) is very hit or miss with his production, but 1/3 of his targets came in the final month of the season so he closed strong. He’s on the field just as much as both Odunze and McMillan.
Injury Notes – TE Jack Westover ($3,700) Westover is questionable with a concussion. Outside of that, zero opt-outs.
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