Ohio vs. Miami (Ohio)
Point-Spread: MOH -2.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: MOH 23.5 – Ohio 21
Weather: Dome
Ohio:
Top Play(s) – QB Parker Navarro ($8,500) Preferred on DK over FD because of salary, but don’t love either play personally because of the Miami (Ohio) defense that is equally stingy vs. the run and pass. Just two quarterbacks this season scored over 20 fantasy points against this RedHawks defense, though it is noticeable the types of QBs that succeeded against Miami (Ohio). Riley Leonard – 143 rushing yards and two scores. Tucker Gleason – 8 rushing yards and a TD. Taisun Phommachanh – 80 rushing yards on 18 attempts. Mike Wright – 65 yards and a TD. We know what Navarro can do with his legs.
Fade – RB Rickey Hunt ($4,200) Remember when Hunt rushed for five touchdowns in last year’s bowl game? Distant memory. Just nine attempts in the last three games and we’ll dig into why rostering any RB from Ohio is a treacherous endeavor below.
Bargain Bin – WR Chase Hendricks ($4,300) Why are we mentioning a player that has a grand total of 12 receiving yards in the last two games? Well, that’s somewhat understandable when your offense only threw 30 passes combined in that stretch. Assuming Ohio needs to air it out a bit more as a 2.5-point dog, Hendricks becomes more viable.
Pivot Play – WR Coleman Owen ($7,100) Receivers have found some success against this secondary with four wideouts scoring at least 21 fantasy points. Two of which came from the MAC in Ball State’s Justin Bowick (31 fpts) and WR Jerjuan Newton (26 fpts). Owen is unlikely to have much ownership at $7.1k yet has slate-busting upside as we’ve seen this season, scoring 30 or more fantasy points in three games.
Best of the Rest – RB Anthony Tyus ($5,600) We side closer to a fade than a play for Tyus, going against a defense that ranks third in the conference in yards allowed on the ground and is allowing just a combined 18 fantasy points to opposing backfields this season. I feel like we need 20 points from Tyus to justify his salary. The issue is that not one running back accomplished that against MOH at any point this year.
Injury Notes – n/a
Miami, OH:
Top Play(s) – RB Keyon Mozee ($4,500) Apples to apples, I prefer Mozee over Louisiana’s Bill Davis, but the matchup is why folks will gravitate more to the Ragin Cajun. Ohio is 12th in rush D success rate and 7th nationally in EPA per run play which is, by far, tops in the MAC conference. 100+ rushing yards for Mozee in six of the last seven games and doesn’t have to fight for carries unlike Davis as the solidified RB1 for the RedHawks.
Fade – QB Brett Gabbert ($6,000) This number has much to do with the lack of talent remaining in the MAC conference these days because of the transfer portal, but Ohio gave up just 14.3 FPPG to quarterbacks during the regular season. Only one QB scored more than 20 fantasy points against Ohio this year, and that was Kyle McCord.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Nobody playable under $4.5k.
Pivot Play – Stacking Multiple Miami (Ohio) receivers in same lineup. See below.
Best of the Rest – WRs. When all three starting receivers are healthy, Miami (Ohio) only throws that trio, comprising of Javon Tracy, Reggie Virgil and Cade McDonald. Against Bowling Green in the season finale, those three had all 28 of the targets from passes thrown that game. McDonald has the lowest projection but has been peppered with targets in the last three games he’s been fully healthy, including nine catches on 12 targets vs. BG. McDonald also scored 19 fantasy points in the previous matchup with Ohio.
Injury Notes – n/a
Iowa State vs. Arizona State
Point-Spread: ASU -2.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: ASU 26.5 – ISU 24
Weather: Dome
Iowa State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jayden Higgins ($7,500) and / or WR Jaylin Noel ($6,500) For our long-time readers this season, you know the drill by now. Two 100-target receivers for Iowa State that are playable separately or as a stack, as the duo combines for 62% of the team’s target share and 15 of the 20 receiving touchdowns. Arizona State has allowed five wide receivers to score 21 or more fantasy points against them this season.
Fade – RB Jaylon Jackson ($3,400) Remember back in September when Jaylon Jackson emerged as Iowa State’s RB1? The Eastern Michigan transfer has failed to surpass 20 yards rushing since Week 6.
Bargain Bin – TE Gabe Burkle ($3,000) Burkle has played nearly 80% of the team’s snaps over the last five games with 19 of his 24 targets coming in that span. A WR3 beyond Higgins and Noel potentially has emerged with WR Carson Brown ($3,400) who’s been targeted 10 times in the last two games.
Pivot Play – RB Carson Hansen ($4,000) or RB Abu Sama ($3,500) Hansen and Sama have separated themselves from Jaylon Jackson but remains a split backfield between the two. So, if wanting to roster an Iowa State RB, we would strongly advise just one and not stacking. ASU’s strength on defense is defending the run, allowing just 21 combined fantasy points per contest to opposing backfields.
Best of the Rest – QB Rocco Becht ($7,600) Interesting to see that Arizona State only allowed 14.9 FPPG to quarterbacks during the regular season because their pass defense is the weakness on that side of the ball, ranked 99th in success rate. Becht is a safe, but limited upside play, though we like his rushing trends of late, with a combined three rushing scores in the last three weeks.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arizona State:
Top Play(s) – RB Cam Skattebo ($10,300) Top play of the slate and a spend-up candidate on both sites as Skattebo is likely to touch the ball 30+ times. We sound like a broken record at this point discussing the Iowa State run defense, but they’re not an imposing front seven, ranked 85th in rush D success rate and 14th of 16 Big 12 teams in yards allowed per game on the ground.
Fade – RB Kyson Brown ($3,500) So long as he’s healthy, Skattebo is getting ALL the touches on Saturday.
Bargain Bin – WRs. They’re all cheap, and all should be relevant now with Jordyn Tyson out for the season. I’m hesitant to say that Xavier Guillory is a shoo-in for the WR1 role because he’s played the most offensive snaps among the wideouts. For all the attention that Tyson received from defenses, Guillory and his fellow Arizona State counterparts did very little with their opportunities. Any one of Guillory, Melquan Stovall or former Texas transfer Troy Omerie are playable at cost.
Pivot Play – QB Sam Leavitt ($7,300) Warming up to the idea of considering Leavitt solo, but also with Cam Skattebo as a potential game stack. Not having Jordyn Tyson hurts considerably, but we know that Leavitt can run – although not so much as of late. The game I cannot get out of my head is the UCF / Iowa State matchup from earlier in the year where RJ Harvey and Jacurri Brown combined for nearly 350 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Does Arizona State take a similar approach?
Best of the Rest – TE Chamon Metayer ($3,100) All hands on deck for the other Arizona State pass-catchers having to replicate the production of their injured WR1. We know Metayer is on the field a lot, playing over 75% of the team’s offensive snaps. Metayer is second on the team in targets (41), touchdowns (5) and fourth in routes run.
Injury Notes – WR Jordyn Tyson ($7,200) Out for the season.
Georgia vs. Texas
Point-Spread: Tex -2.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: Tex 25.5 – UGA 23
Weather: Dome
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – RB Nate Frazier ($5,500) Better game to watch as a viewer than risk actual currency on in DFS with limited fantasy appeal. Frazier gets the slight nod as the team’s RB1 with Trevor Etienne out of the lineup. Texas is very good against the run, but not elite, ranked 43rd in rush D success rate. Etienne had the highest mark of any running back in the previous meeting, scoring 32 fantasy points against the Longhorns, and Frazier is just a step below Etienne from a talent perspective.
Fade – QB Carson Beck ($8,000) Scored just 4.8 fantasy points in the previous meeting, tossing three interceptions, and facing a defense that allowed just 7.2 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks during the regular season.
Bargain Bin – TE Lawson Luckie ($3,100) or TE Oscar Delp ($3,000) There’s always an x-factor in these championship matchups that is not at the top of the scouting report. Tight ends have had some success against the Longhorns defense this season, including Colston Loveland (14 fpts) and Eli Stowers (12 fpts).
Pivot Play – WR London Humphreys ($3,200) Humphreys is still a distant fourth option at receiver behind the top three, but usage is up the last three weeks with 50% of his 26 targets coming in that stretch to close out the year. His second touchdown of the season came just last week against Georgia Tech.
Best of the Rest – Starting WRs. The overall season numbers for the trio of Dom Lovett, Arian Smith and Dillon Bell are nearly identical, so put the names in a hat and pick one essentially. In all seriousness, Lovett gets the nod over the others, as he was targeted 10 times in the previous matchup. In addition, four of the five highest scoring receivers to face Texas this year played in the slot where Lovett lines up.
Injury Notes – RB Trevor Etienne ($6,500) We don’t have a projection currently for Etienne but see a few predictions of him trying to give it a go on Saturday. Either way, he’s unplayable at this price if he suits up or not.
Texas:
Top Play(s) – TE Gunnar Helm ($4,000) They need to nickname Helm “Big Game Gunnar” with how he performs in Texas’ biggest matchups. 7 catches for 98 yards vs. Michigan. 5 catches for 91 yards vs. Oklahoma. 6 catches for 62 yards in the last matchup with Georgia. And then 56 yards and 6 catches last week against A&M.
Fade – QB Quinn Ewers ($8,200) Ankle is still a hinderance and Ewers is coming out of the game in the red-zone for backup Arch Manning as we saw last week vs. A&M. Reducing scoring opportunities for Ewers lowers our interest here to a big fat zero.
Bargain Bin – WR Matthew Golden ($4,100) Not a coincidence that Golden has emerged as the team’s WR1 with Isaiah Bond at less than 100% the last several weeks. 60 or more receiving yards in four of the last six games. Five wide receivers this season have scored at least 18 fantasy points against this UGA defense, including 24 fpts from Eric Singleton in Week 14.
Pivot Play – RB Tre Wisner ($6,300) Another volume boosted option because of a banged-up Jaydon Blue, as Wisner has posted 59 rushing attempts over the last two games alone. The game script played a huge role in the previous meeting, but Wisner struggled with just 52 yards on 15 carries in that matchup at home. But if we’re referencing game script, we’d be remiss not to mention the five receptions on eight targets for Wisner in that same matchup.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Golden and Helm are the only pass-catchers I’m interested in this week, but Texas has been shuffling Ryan Wingo, DeAndre Moore Jr. and Bond evenly the last three weeks, all playing around 50% of the team’s snaps. No strong preference of the three.
Injury Notes – n/a
Marshall vs. Louisiana
Point-Spread: UL -5
O/U Total: 57
Implied Score: UL 31 – Mar 26
Weather: 60 degrees / 52% rain / 6 mph winds
Marshall:
Top Play(s) – QB Braylon Braxton ($7,100) Really the only reliable option on the Marshall side and a solid pairing with SMU’s Kevin Jennings in two-QB lineups with the reasonable pricing and both being dual threats. I do wonder, though, if Braxton will see too much ownership where it makes sense to fade in GPPs as this Louisiana defense is only giving up around 15 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. Just three QBs scored over 20 fantasy points this season against the Ragin Cajuns, though two were Hank Bachmeier and a walk-on at Troy in Matthew Caldwell. Braxton is better than both of those QBs.
Fade – RB A.J. Turner ($5,500) Turner is Marshall’s best offensive player, but his usage has come down since the midseason injury, with just 21 rushing attempts in the last three games. Essentially, Turner and Jordan Houston are rotating in every other series, while also mixing in third-stringer Ethan Payne every fourth series or in red-zone situations. Tough to rationalize those factors at this price with so many other good RBs on the slate.
Bargain Bin – TE Toby Payne ($3,400) Low-volume tight end that averages just 1.6 targets per game, but is tied for the team lead in touchdowns (6), facing a defense that allows 11.3 FPPG to opposing tight ends. Five tight ends have scored at least 10 fantasy points against this UL defense.
Pivot Play – A Marshall Running Back. Whether it’s Turner, Houston or Ethan Payne, rostering a Marshall running back will be a leverage play against the field. Louisiana is equally as putrid defending the run as Marshall is, ranked 133rd in rush D success rate and giving up 28 FPPG to opposing backfields. I know we stated to fade Turner above, but that’s mostly for cash games. The sophomore back still averages over eight yards per attempt against a very bad defense with low ownership. Something to consider in GPPs.
Best of the Rest – WR Christian Fitzpatrick ($5,600) The former Louisville and Michigan State transfer leads the team by a considerable margin in routes run, targets (74) and tied for the team lead in receiving touchdowns (6). I’d limit my lineups to just one Marshall receiver, as the Herd are 117th in pass play rate. Carl Chester, Bralon Brown and Chuck Montgomery are rotational options, aside from Fitzpatrick.
Injury Notes – n/a
Louisiana:
Top Play(s) – RB Bill Davis ($4,900) Too cheap for Louisiana’s top running back, facing one of the worst rush defenses in the country. Marshall is 99th in rush D success rate and giving up 33 FPPG to opposing backfields. Preferred on DK over FD because of salaries.
Fade – QB Chandler Fields ($6,800) Just nothing particularly exciting about Fields as an option. He’s a clear downgrade from Ben Wooldridge who is out for the season due to injury, and a non-runner. Marshall’s defense is significantly better against the pass vs. the run, ranking 45th in success rate and giving up just 17.7 FPPG to opposing QBs. Fields is functional with starting experience, but nothing enticing from a fantasy lense.
Bargain Bin – TE Terrance Carter ($4,100) Carter was Louisiana’s top pass-catching option for much of the season with 48 receptions on 58 targets with an incredible 83% catch rate and four touchdowns. Marshall hasn’t allowed a ton of fantasy points to opposing tight ends, but the position isn’t all that prevalent in the Sun Belt. For the year, four tight ends scored at least 11 fantasy points against the Herd.
Pivot Play – RB Zylan Perry ($3,600) Perry is the RB2 behind Davis, but it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that he leads Louisiana in rushing attempts on Saturday. It happened in the season finale as well, rushing for 148 yards and two scores vs. ULM. Perry averages nearly seven yards a carry and could easily hit value with 7-8 carries. I don’t hate stacking both Louisiana RBs together because of the Marshall run defense being as bad as it is.
Best of the Rest – WR Lance Legendre ($4,500) Legendre has accounted for 30% of the team’s target share in each of the last three games, now leading the team with 61 targets for the year. He’s solidified as the team’s WR1. Outside of that, a mixed bag that I admittedly don’t have a great read on. UL will deploy five receivers relatively consistently between Legendre, Harvey Broussard, Jacob Bernard, Robert Williams and Tavion Smith.
Injury Notes – RB Dre’Lyn Washington ($3,300) Washington is officially questionable for Saturday, but quotes from the head coach doesn’t sound promising that the junior running back will suit up. FWIW – I’d fade Davis and his hefty ownership if Washington is surprisingly a go.
Clemson vs. SMU
Point-Spread: SMU -2.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: SMU 29.5 – Clem 27
Weather: 39 degrees / 1% rain / 3 mph winds
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – QB Cade Klubnik ($9,000) SMU is solid across the board defensively, but the pass defense leaves a bit to be desired, ranked 85th in yards per game through the air and 128th in pass attempts allowed. Klubnik closed the year on a high note with 28 fantasy points in two of the last three games and would’ve easily cleared that against the Citadel had he played more than a half. Clemson’s top beat writer’s official prediction for the game is that Klubnik would be named the MVP of the game. Not that it matters, but always like to read the predictions from those that cover the team on a daily basis.
Fade – Non-Starting Receivers. Last time out against South Carolina, no wide receiver beyond the top three played more than 16% of the team’s snaps.
Bargain Bin – TE Jake Briningstool ($3,500) The SMU defense has been cooked by opposing tight ends this season, allowing around 15 FPPG to the position, with five players scoring double-digit fantasy points.
Pivot Play – RB Phil Mafah ($6,700) Folks will be off Mafah with how he closed the year, averaging just three yards a carry over the last three weeks. But look at the volume since Week 6, averaging 17 carries a game over that span. Three ACC running backs scored at least 20 fantasy points against SMU this season.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore have combined to play 75% of the team’s offensive snaps in the last four games against FBS opponents. Clemson is no longer rotating at the position. All three are in play, and the prices make this a stackable situation if you chose to roster two in the same lineup.
Injury Notes – WR Tyler Brown ($3,000) Too big of a risk for the slate, but last year’s leading receiver did return to practice on Monday and is now questionable. Still one game of eligibility to play for Brown this season and still preserve his redshirt should he want that.
SMU:
Top Play(s) – QB Kevin Jennings ($6,900) Jennings is the starting point for me when concocting my builds on DraftKings in particular, but the salary is fine on both sites to where he’s my preferred option at the QB position. 19 or more fantasy points in every start this season for Jennings, and no reason he should be priced below QBs like Drew Allar or Braylon Braxton.
Fade – RB LJ Johnson ($3,400) The only instance this season in which Johnson accumulated double-digit rushing attempts was in a 33-7 romp over Virginia in Week 13. It is very unlikely this ACC Championship is a blowout.
Bargain Bin – TE Matthew Hibner ($3,500) Has played over 77% of the team’s offensive snaps since RJ Maryland was lost for the season, now with three receiving touchdowns in the last four games. Essentially, there’s no drop-off in terms of production at the tight end position going from a potential all-conference candidate to Hibner. Clemson allowed 10.8 FPPG to the tight end position this season.
Pivot Play – RB Brashard Smith ($8,200) When most will be on the team’s QB, that makes the RB the top pivot play with Smith. Clemson’s run defense was abysmal the last two games, allowing 288 yards to the Citadel and 267 yards with over six yards per carry to South Carolina in the finale. For the season, the Tigers finished 113th in EPA per run play defensively. Smith should get the lion’s share of the carries.
Best of the Rest – WRs. There’s still no target hog amongst the SMU receivers, but at least this season we must decide between four options versus 6-7 like it was last year. Key’Shawn Smith and Roderick Daniels Jr. are the preferred options, as they both have played over 80% of the team’s snaps in each of the last four games, whereas Moochie Dixon and Jordan Hudson rotate in and out of the lineup more periodically.
Injury Notes – n/a
Penn State vs. Oregon
Point-Spread: Oreg -3.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: Oreg 26.5 – PSU 23
Weather: Dome
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – RB Nick Singleton ($6,600) Truthfully, I don’t think we need any Penn State exposure on this slate, but Singleton would just narrowly beat out Tyler Warren for my top option. Metrics point to the Penn State run game having a favorable matchup as Oregon is just 80th in rush D success rate and 79th in EPA per run play defensively. The Oregon run defense has been better in B1G play, but still allowed some big performances this season, including 40 fpts from Ashton Jeanty and 27 fpts from Oregon State’s Anthony Hankerson. Singleton’s refreshing usage in the passing game is why he’s playing more than Kaytron Allen, now with 33 receptions on 35 targets this season.
Fade – RB Kaytron Allen ($5,400) Too expensive for a player that has fallen off the last month, with fewer than 35 rushing yards in four of the last five games. Dig further than that, Allen has averaged less than four yards a carry in six of the last eight games.
Bargain Bin – WR Omari Evans ($3,600) Evans deserves more touches as the team’s most explosive wide receiver, averaging nearly 19 yards per catch. His playing time has increased the last two games, combining for over 100 yards receiving in that span. He’s taken over the starting job ahead of the ineffective Julian Fleming.
Pivot Play – TE Tyler Warren ($7,700) Hopefully James Franklin and OC Andy Kotelnicki learned their lesson from the Ohio State game to not avoid their best player until the second half of the game. Warren is a unicorn tight end that will get touches as a pass-catcher, running back and wildcat QB. Just two tight ends this season scored double-digit fantasy points against Oregon.
Best of the Rest – QB Drew Allar ($7,000) Don’t think playing Allar makes a ton of sense with Braylon Braxton having a better matchup at a similar pricing. Oregon gave up just 11.3 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. WR Harrison Wallace ($3,800) missed the Maryland matchup in the season finale, but returned to practice on Wednesday and will start.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oregon:
Top Play(s) – RB Jordan James ($7,700) There’s a notable trend with Oregon games and how competitive those contests are. In the three games this season that the Ducks have played that were decided by three points or less, James averaged 22 rushing attempts and hit 100+ yards in all three games. Assuming this is a competitive matchup, no matter how many times James Franklin tries to screw that up, James should see a healthy dose of carries.
Fade – QB Dillon Gabriel ($8,600) Not an outright fade, but I won’t have a ton of exposure here given the PSU secondary allowing just 9.2 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. Obviously, Dillon Gabriel is substantially better than the likes of Connor Bazelak, Justyn Martin and Max Brosmer, but the numbers are what they are. No quarterback scored more than 18 fantasy points against Penn State this year, and you’ll need at least 20 from Gabriel at this price.
Bargain Bin – TE Terrance Ferguson ($3,100) If there was a position that succeeded against the Penn State defense this season, it was tight ends. Two performances in particular – Harold Fannin (30 fpts) and Max Klare (22 fpts). 52% of Ferguson’s targets this season have come in the last four games alone.
Pivot Play – RB Noah Whittington ($4,100) Only play Whittington in GPP lineups you’re constructing for an Oregon blowout situation, which is probably unlikely to begin with. In those three games that James dominated the touch counts, Whittington rushed for a combined 33 yards.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Max one Oregon receiver in a lineup between Tez Johnson, Traeshon Holden and Evan Stewart. Just one wideout this season scored more than 20 fantasy points in a game vs. the Nittany Lions. Three of the four highest scoring fantasy performances against this PSU defense came from a slot receiver, so we’d slightly favor Tez Johnson in this situation.
Injury Notes – n/a
Mike’s Core Four:
- Cam Skattebo, Arizona State
- Jordan James, Oregon
- Kevin Jennings, SMU
- Bill Davis, Louisiana
