Western Kentucky @ UTSA
Point-Spread: WKU -3
O/U Total: 72.5
Weather: Dome
UTSA:
The Roadrunners don’t do any one thing on offense exceptionally well but do boast one of the most balanced offenses in the entire country, ranking 46th in passing yards per game and 49th in rush yards. Several players deserve praise for UTSA’s 11-1 season, but none more so than quarterback Frank Harris, who finished with a 66.3 percent completion rate, throwing for 2,688 yards and 23 passing touchdowns – six of which came in the last meeting with WKU. At his current projection at 35 fantasy points (might be a tad high), Harris is a near-lock at his pricing, but should be somewhat cautious here as he is dinged up, having played just half the offensive snaps last week vs. North Texas. Head coach Jeff Traylor said Harris is fine and will be out there, but something to at least monitor leading up to Friday night.
Along with Harris, the ground attack is led by one of the best running backs in all of college football in Sincere McCormick, who topped 1,000 rushing yards for the second straight season. Success running the football will be a key factor in Friday’s matchup, since teams have looked to keep the high-flying WKU passing offense off the field by controlling the clock with the run. The Hilltoppers are just 113th this season in time of possession. That strategy worked much more successfully at the beginning part of the year, as the Hilltoppers have steadily improved defending the run as the season’s gone along, allowing under four yards per carry in six of the last seven games. Just two running backs have surpassed 20 fantasy points against WKU this season, and are allowing just 16.5 FPPG to RB1s. Not a gimme matchup for McCormick by any stretch, but he’s one of the many UTSA players that are severely underpriced on the slate.
Centralized target tree for UTSA with receivers Zakhari Franklin, Joshua Cephas and Decorian Clark who account for 68 percent of the total team share in 2021. Projection and salaries dictate that all three must be considered this week. Against WKU the first time around, Clark was third in terms of targets (7) but converted that into 160 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Looking at the matchups, Clark has the most favorable of the three again, lining up across Kahlef Hailassie who has the lowest coverage grade of the starting defensive backs.
Western Kentucky:
Bailey Zappe at $9k is a lock as the highest-projected player of the entire weekend. Really not need to dissect him any further. As one would expect, running the football is a foreign concept for Western Kentucky with a 33 percent rush play rate on the season, second lowest in the country ahead of only Mississippi State. UTSA ranks second in C-USA in run defense, allowing just 121 yards per game on the ground, but did not close the season well, giving up over five yards a carry to both UAB and North Texas with a combined eight rushing touchdowns. Might we see Western Kentucky adjust its offensive philosophy a bit on Friday? I think you’ll see some look to roster RB1 Noah Whittington at $3,500 as he has a slight advantage over backups Adam Cofield and Kye Robichaux in both snaps and carries the last few weeks. I haven’t begun to construct my lineups for Friday just yet, but that feels like a popular punt play that I’ll look to avoid given that Whittington has topped 10 fantasy points just twice this season and is not involved in the passing game. We can find better salary savers elsewhere at lower ownership percentages.
WR1 Jerreth Sterns and WR2 Mitchell Tinsley have identical projections this week, making Tinsley a lock at $6,000. He’s been targeted 10+ times in each of the last three games with four touchdowns. Has found the end-zone in six of the last eight games. Both players topped 100 yards receiving in the first matchup with UTSA, but will be lining up across two of the Roadrunners’ highest graded defenders on Friday. Malachi Corley is the team’s third option in the passing game, and likely surpasses 100 targets on the season Friday. The secondary slot receiver has found the end-zone in three of the last four games, but will likely have the lowest ownership of the starting receivers due to pricing as he’s $900 more than Daewood Davis. Speaking first-hand from having Corley on my CFF rosters, he doesn’t have a great deal of upside, failing to top 20 fantasy points in all but one game. Consistency – check. Hit double-digit fantasy points in all but one game so he has one of the highest floors of any player on the slate. Davis is the team’s athletic deep threat with an aDOT of 13.0 and eight touchdowns. Lowest ceiling of WKU’s four receivers. Dalvin Smith and tight end Joey Beljan are the extreme punt plays. Smith has two touchdowns in the last three games, but targeted just 12 times on the year. Similar story with Beljan who has found the end-zone three times in the last three weeks, but targeted only 17 times total.
Oregon vs. Utah
Point-Spread: Utah -2.5
O/U Total: 58
Weather: Dome
Oregon:
This is absolutely a two-quarterback slate, but I’m trying to find a reason to roster either QB in this game outside of being contrarian in GPP. Not that Anthony Brown shouldn’t be considered an option, but we have two elite plays in the other game that I don’t see why Brown or Cam Rising should be debated. The senior quarterback did lead the Pac-12 in total offense during the regular season with 3,178 yards over 12 games, but struggled mightily in the first meeting with the Utes, completing just 49 percent of his throws with eight yards on the ground. Utah does allow 21.2 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season, but are 22nd in Pass Play Success Rate, and if they dominate the LOS as they did in the first meeting, Brown’s path to GPP-winning production looks bleak. I believe Jaylon Redd and Johnny Johnson will be out once again, so it’s the same situation at receiver that we’ve seen the last few weeks with starters Devon Williams, Kris Hutson and Troy Franklin who combined for 20 of the 28 targets last week vs. Oregon State. Hutson is my top play of the group considering pricing as he’s been targeted 18 times over the last two weeks in the slot, and his season-high of 96 yards did come vs. the Utes in the previous meeting. He’ll likely see the highest ownership of the Ducks’ receivers.
I took a few under 95.5 rushing yards props for Travis Dye on Prizepicks so you know where my head is at entering this matchup as the RB1 for Oregon had just 29 yards on six carries in the last meeting. On the year, Utah is allowing just 12.0 FPPG to opposing RB1s and are 62nd in Rush Play Success Rate. Game script played a clear factor as Oregon was down 28-0 at one point, but has anything really changed between the two teams in the last two weeks where Utah won’t find similar success in the trenches? Also of note is Dye’s season-low one reception on just two targets vs. the Utes. I don’t see Oregon leaning on the FR Byron Cardwell much this week in such an important spot, so Dye should do the heavy lifting on Friday…just don’t view him as a must on my DFS rosters.
Utah:
So much for Tavion Thomas not being expected to play much last week with Utah having nothing to play for against Colorado as the former JUCO transfer topped 100+ yards for the first-straight game. There is no doubt that Oregon will be better prepared this time around for Utah in the trenches after they were dominated on both sides of the ball in the first meeting, but all the advanced seasonal metrics remain in favor of the Utes here. 26th in Rush Play Success Rate vs. just 60th in Rush Play Success Rate defensively for the Ducks. Utah is 9th in Line Yards vs. 50th in Defensive Line Yards for Oregon. If decision between Thomas and Dye for my lineups, easy decision with the Utah RB1.
Because of game flow, Cam Rising wasn’t tasked to do much the first time around, completing just 10 passes on 18 attempts. Between the two defenses, Oregon’s secondary is probably the weak link as they rank 10th in the Pac-12 in yards allowed per game and give up around 25 FPPG to opposing QB1s. Assuming this game is more competitive, Rising should realistically come closer to his seasonal average of 19.8 FPPG which is right around his projection for this week. But again, same argument for Brown here – not sure it makes sense to roster either QB over a Zappe/Harris combination unless trying to be contrarian. Tight end Brant Kuithe had his best performance of the season vs. Oregon with 118 yards on six targets, and the Ducks allow the second-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends on this slate. Slot receiver Britain Covey has been targeted 10 times in the last two games with two touchdowns – one receiving and one return score. Covey has the best matchup in the slot of any Utah receiver as nickel corner Jamal Hill has a 55.9 PFF coverage grade (not good). Not sure if there was an injury but Devaughn Vele saw just three offensive snaps last week, giving way to Theo Howard. Very little production from Vele, Howard or Solomon Enis this season so I’d avoid that trio altogether.
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