Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State
- Point-Spread: Kenn St -2
- O/U Total: 59
- Implied Score: Kenn St 30.5 – JSU 28.5
- Weather: 43 degrees / 65% rain / 4 mph winds
Kennesaw State:
Top Play(s) – WR Gabriel Benyard ($6,900) The converted running back turned wide receiver was Kennesaw’s best offensive weapon this season, ranked first in receptions (54) and touchdowns (9), with 26% of the team’s target share. Benyard was either tied for or had the most targets among any Kennesaw pass-catcher in each of the last nine games to end the regular season and closed the year with six receiving touchdowns in his last four games. There are three elite WR options on the slate, and Benyard is in that group.
Fade – RB Alexander Diggs ($4,400) and WR Lyndon Ravare ($3,400) Diggs began the season as Kennesaw’s RB2 behind Coleman Bennett but has since fallen to third on the depth chart, averaging less than three yards per carry over the last four games played. Diggs did not register a single carry vs. Liberty in the finale. Kennesaw has reduced its WR rotation to just three players over the last month of the season. Ravare is no longer part of the equation, playing just one offensive snap over the last three weeks.
Bargain Bin – TE Gerard Bullock Jr. ($3,100) Bullock finished fourth on the team in routes run, fifth in targets (26) and fourth in receptions (23). Nothing eye-popping about those numbers, but if there was a position that Jacksonville State struggled to defend this season it was tight ends. For the season, JSU allowed just over 9 FPPG to the position, with tight ends averaging 30% above their seasonal average when facing the Gamecocks. Just in his last matchup with JSU three weeks ago, Bullock posted season-highs in receptions (5) and targets (5).
Pivot Play – RB Coleman Bennett ($5,600) or RB Chase Belcher ($4,900) What we do know is that Kennesaw should be able to run on JSU, a team that allowed over 200+ rushing yards in each of the last three games. Bennett has been the team’s RB1 for the entirety of the year, but this is a 55-45 split situation between he and Belcher. And for the season, Bennett and Belcher finished in a tie with 19 red zone rushing attempts.
Best of the Rest – QB Amari Odom ($8,500) The only reason Odom wasn’t Kennesaw’s top play on the slate for me is that you can go in several different directions at the QB position. But his play in the last two games is more the deserving, scoring 86 combined fantasy points against Missouri State and Liberty. For the season, Jacksonville State allowed just over 24 FPPG to quarterbacks and have been susceptible to running QBs like Odom. Three of the last four QBs faced this season have run for at least 40+ yards against the Gamecocks, including Odom who had 51 yards and a TD in his matchup with JSU.
WR Christian Moss ($4,400) and WR Clayton Coppock ($3,900) are the second and third options in the Kennesaw passing game, the latter of which ranks second on the team in receiving touchdowns (5) despite just playing in nine games this season. Kennesaw finished the season ranked just 103rd in pass play rate, so I’m not sure we should have too many lineups with multiple Owl WRs.
Injury Notes – n/a
Jacksonville State:
Top Play(s) – RB Cam Cook ($8,000) and / or QB Caden Creel ($8,200) Two elite options at their respective positions on the slate, as Cook and Creel led Jacksonville State to the No. 1 rushing offense in Conference USA by a WIDE margin, averaging 262 YPG on the ground. The duo is playable together considering JSU finished the season 6th nationally in run play percentage at a 66% clip, and face a Kennesaw run defense that fell off a cliff in the final month, giving up over six yards per carry and nine rushing TDs in the last three games. Both Creel and Cook rushed for 100+ in the team’s first meeting.
Fade – WR Michael Pettway ($3,000) Somewhat of a copout answer here given that Pettway is just $3k, but he did start in Week 14 against Western Kentucky. That will likely be short-lived with WR Brock Rechsteiner ($4,300) expected back this week. Pettway hadn’t played more than 30% of the team’s offensive snaps in the previous six games prior to last week as he was relegated to backup duties.
Bargain Bin – WR Deondre Johnson ($4,000) Johnson is a behemoth of a WR, standing 6-foot-8, and has been a terror of CUSA defenses over the last month and a half with all six of his receiving touchdowns in the last five games. 491 of Johnson’s 564 receiving yards this season came in that five-game stretch, including 112 yards on just two catches in the previous matchup with Kennesaw.
Best of the Rest – WR Caleb Coombs ($4,000) Absolutely no idea why Coombs and Johnson are the same pricing. Coombs ranks fifth on the team in routes run this season, but first in targets (52) and receptions (36), though is a low floor play with a 7.7 YPC average and 5.6 aDOT. Limit one JSU receiver per lineup with the Gamecocks throwing the ball just 37% of the time. Kennesaw State did allow over 41 FPPG to opposing team WRs, so having one JSU wideout in a lineup makes sense.
Injury Notes – n/a
Troy vs. James Madison
- Point-Spread: JMU -22.5
- O/U Total: 47.5
- Implied Score: JMU 35 – Troy 12.5
- Weather: 30 degrees / 22% rain / 4 mph winds
Troy:
Top Play(s) – WR Rara Thomas ($3,800) Troy is, by far, the team we’ll have the least exposure to on the slate – no surprising given the lowest implied team total of the eight schools. Thomas, a former Georgia transfer, had his best performance of the season last week with 118 yards and two touchdowns vs. Southern Miss. Thomas’ 89% of snaps played in the matchup was also his highest total of the season. JMU doesn’t give up many fantasy points to any skill positions, but boundary WRs have found the best success against this secondary in 2025. ODU’s Tre Brown had 138 yards and two touchdowns against the Dukes. Georgia Southern’s Camden Brown posted 100+ in his respective matchup with JMU. And going back all the way to September, Louisville’s Chris Bell had 83 yards and a score.
Fade – RBs. I did take a small stab at Tae Meadows Any Time Touchdown prop bet, but only because it was sitting at +900 over at MGM earlier in the week. Aside from that, our interest here should be minimal against the No. 1 run defense in the Sun Belt. JMU allowed over 50 fewer yards per game on the ground than the next closest team in the conference. Opposing backfields averaged just 12 FPPG during the regular season.
Bargain Bin – WR Peyton Higgins ($3,300) Higgins had his best two game-stretch of the season in the final weeks, combining for 11 receptions on 13 targets, including a touchdown vs. Southern Miss in the finale. His uptick seems to coincide with fellow slot receiver Roman Mothershed not playing in Week 14, so we’ll want to double check his status, though he doesn’t have an injury tag on DK.
Pivot Play – WR DJ Epps ($4,600) Epps remains tied for the team lead in touchdowns (5), while leading the Trojans in receptions (41) and routes run this season. Not a scenario to stack Troy receivers despite the likely game script, but Epps is a strong pivot option to what will likely be a heavily owned Rara Thomas.
Best of the Rest – QB Goose Crowder ($6,300) Strong close to the year for a healthy Goose Crowder, throwing seven touchdowns and over 540 combined passing yards. While impressive, that came against the 10th and 6th ranked pass defenses in the Sun Belt. JMU is first. Play Troy wideouts solo without stacking with Crowder – the Dukes allowed just 15 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
James Madison:
Top Play(s) – RB Wayne Knight ($6,500) Best play on the slate considering projection, matchup and price. Troy has allowed six 100-yard rushers this season and giving up over 28 FPPG to opposing backfields this season. While Troy is just 7th in the Sun Belt in yards allowed on the ground, they’ve specifically had a difficult time against teams with running QBs which JMU has. 217 yards to Memphis, 265 to South Alabama, 326 to Texas State and 351 to Old Dominion.
Fade – WR Jaylan Sanchez ($4,300) Didn’t catch enough JMU games towards the end of the season to fully know the slot receiver situation, but it was WR Braeden Wisloski ($3,200) who ran the second most routes in the finale vs. Coastal Carolina. PFF listed Sanchez as a starter but was relegated to just 35% snaps play against CCU, while Wisloski had the team high in receiving yards (64) and found the end zone.
Bargain Bin – WR Nick DeGennaro ($3,600) The one JMU receiver that doesn’t have injury questions, and his standing in the starting lineup is not in jeopardy like it is with Jaylan Sanchez. DeGennaro finished the year with just 21 catches on 37 targets, but was the team leader in routes run, playing nearly 70% of the team’s offensive snaps for the year. While we’re hitting on the JMU receivers, don’t feel pressured to play any of them, considering the Dukes are just 127th this season in pass rate at 38.3%.
Pivot Play – RB Jobi Malary ($4,400) GPP play here stacked with Knight or playable solo with JMU being three-touchdown favorites. Malary closed the year with multiple 100-yard rushing performances in the last three games, including four rushing touchdowns and eight red zone carries in that final stretch.
Best of the Rest – QB Alonza Barnett ($7,400) Our interest on the JMU side lies more with the running backs than with Barnett, as Troy finished 4th in the Sun Belt in yards allowed through the air and only 19 FPPG to quarterbacks. That said, dual threats like Barnett gave this defense all sorts of fits in the regular season. Old Dominion’s Colton Joseph scored 34 fantasy points with 90 yards on the ground. Texas State’s Brad Jackson scored 24 fantasy points with 77 yards rushing. Even South Alabama’s Bishop Davenport, who was largely underwhelming this season, scored 29 fantasy points with 72 yards rushing against this Troy defense.
Injury Notes – WR Landon Ellis (probable)
North Texas vs. Tulane
- Point-Spread: UNT -2.5
- O/U Total: 66.5
- Implied Score: UNT 34.5 – Tul 32
- Weather: 57 degrees / 73% rain / 5 mph winds
North Texas:
Top Play(s) – QB Drew Mestemaker ($7,800) The efficiency of this North Texas passing game is insane and will be fun to watch next season at Oklahoma State when inevitably Drew Mestemaker joins his former head coach in Stillwater. Mestemaker is averaging just 24 passes attempts over his last three games yet has scored 22+ fantasy points in all three weeks with an 80% completion rate and eight touchdown passes. Tulane finished towards the bottom of the American conference in yards allowed through the air, with five opponents throwing for 300+ yards against them in 2025.
Bargain Bin – WR Landon Sides ($4,100) Sides has not been the difference maker some thought he’d be in 2025 but still ranks second on the team in routes run and fourth in targets (46). TE Tre Williams ($3,500) is fifth in routes run and has barely left the field in the last two games, playing all but one offensive snap. Tulane allowed just under 8 FPPG to tight ends this season. What Wyatt Young is doing this season is what most expected from WR Miles Coleman ($3,600) in the slot, but that obviously didn’t transpire. His playing time has significantly declined over the second half of the year, playing just 30% of snaps in the last four games.
Pivot Play – WR Wyatt Young ($8,100) and / or WR Cameron Dorner ($4,700) Young and Dorner are just 28 yards shy of 2,000 combined receiving yards for the season as both hit the century mark last week vs. Temple. Opposing team WRs are averaging nearly 42 FPPG against Tulane this season, so Young and Dorner are playable solo or stacked against this secondary. If there was one small argument against Young or Dorner, it would be that both thrive on the big play, and Tulane did an excellent job this year at limiting explosives through the air, ranked 17th nationally.
Best of the Rest – RB Caleb Hawkins ($10,500) You can’t list the No. 1 fantasy running back in the country as a fade option, but we’ll probably be underweight on Hawkins for this slate given his enormous price tag. Tulane was better against the run than the pass this year, ranked 2nd in the conference in yards allowed on the ground and 45th nationally at limiting explosive run plays. Does Tulane take the same approach they had vs. Ole Miss earlier in the year, stacking the box which resulted in just 68 yards (and two touchdowns) on 18 attempts for Kewan Lacy. Tulane gave up three 100-yard rushing performances this season – two of which were by quarterbacks.
Injury Notes – n/a
Tulane:
Top Play(s) – QB Jake Retzlaff ($7,200) If Tulane wins this game, it’ll be due to the arm and legs of Retzlaff who has scored at least 20 fantasy points and one rushing touchdown in each of the last six games. We’ve seen a good bit of rushing usage from quarterbacks facing North Texas this season – Byrum Brown, Bishop Davenport, Blake Horvath and Chase Jenkins all had north of 15 carries in their respective matchups vs. UNT. Six different quarterbacks posted 50+ rushing yards against the Mean Green.
Fade – RB Javin Gordon ($5,000) Gordon has a bright future, rushing for 478 yards and five touchdowns as a true freshman, and maybe follows his former head coach to Gainesville next season. But Gordon did not start the season finale against Charlotte and likely doesn’t again this week.
Pivot Play – RB Jamauri McClure ($5,400) It was said all the way back in spring camp that McClure was the most physically-gifted running back on the Tulane roster, but a matter of if the redshirt freshman learned the other nuances of the position…playbook, pass protection, etc. Tulane gave McClure his opportunity late in the year and the decision is paying off, rushing for 284 combined yards in the last three games on 38 carries. North Texas finished the regular season dead last in the American in yards allowed on the ground, giving up nearly 27 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Best of the Rest – WRs. No Tulane receiver had more than 16% of the team target share with just one (Shazz Preston) having more than two receiving touchdowns. Jake Retzlaff is playable solo, but if stacking with a Tulane wideout, we would have no more than one per lineup. WR Anthony Brown-Stephens ($4,600) had his best game of the year in the finale with 98 yards and nine catches on 11 targets.
Injury Notes – WR Bryce Bohanon (questionable)
UNLV vs. Boise State
- Point-Spread: BSU -3.5
- O/U Total: 58.5
- Implied Score: BSU 31 – UNLV 27.5
- Weather: 44 degrees / 52% rain / 4 mph winds
UNLV:
Top Play(s) – QB Anthony Colandrea ($7,000) Colandrea scored 30 fantasy points in the previous meeting with Boise State, combining for over 300 total yards of offense, including 87 yards and a TD on the ground. That has been a theme when Boise State’s defense has struggled this season – giving up yards on the ground to quarterbacks. Byrum Brown had 40 yards and two TDs in the opener vs. the Broncos. Just last week, Bryson Barnes carried the ball 18 times for nearly 90 yards on the ground. For the season, though, Boise State has given up just 17 FPPG to quarterbacks. FWIW – Colandrea absolutely dominated the red zone usage among all Rebels with 48 carries inside the 20. More than double the next closest player.
Fade – RB Keyvone Lee ($5,300) Not the slate to use a backup running back when the starter looked to be in full form in the season finale. Lee did finish the year with 18 red zone attempts, just one behind UNLV’s RB1 and was effective in the passing game with 18 receptions on 20 targets. It would take injury, though, for Lee to be in the winning lineup.
Bargain Bin – WR Troy Omeire ($4,200) or WR Dae Dae Reynolds ($4,200) Not surprising that Omeire and Reynolds have identical salaries, because their stat-lines this season are the same way. Limit one UNLV receiver per lineup from a team that throws the ball just 47% of the time. Boise State limited opposing team’s WRs to just 25 combined fantasy points per game this season.
Pivot Play – RB Jai’Den Thomas ($7,000) Thomas looked plenty healthy in UNLV’s Week 14 matchup with Nevada, rushing for 103 yards on just 11 carries with four rushing touchdowns. When Boise has been beaten this season, it’s been on the ground. In the four losses, the Broncos allowed a combined 10 rushing touchdowns. For the season, Boise State is giving up over 25 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Best of the Rest – WR Jaden Bradley ($6,400) Bradley had one of his lowest outputs of the season in the previous matchup, converting on just one of his six targets that night, though did find the end zone with a 35-yard reception. Bradley is a true alpha for the Rebels with more the double the number of targets as the next closest UNLV receiver.
Injury Notes – n/a
Boise State:
Top Play(s) – RB Dylan Riley ($7,200) and / or RB Sire Gaines ($6,300) UNLV is abysmal at stopping the run, ranked 91st in rush D success rate and 11th among 12 teams in the Mountain West in yards allowed per game on the ground. The 5.33 YPC average allowed on the ground is the most in the conference. Boise State already dominated this matchup earlier in the year, racking up nearly 300 yards on the ground as a team with 201 of those yards coming from Riley. He’s the preferred option between he and Gaines, specifically after last week where Riley saw 25 rushing attempts, compared to just 10 for Gaines, who also fumbled against Utah State. That said, Boise State has been a committee backfield for much of the year, and Gaines holds a 38 to 29 advantage over Riley in red zone opportunities. Gaines solo or even stacking the Boise backfield is a GPP option.
Fade – QB Maddux Madsen ($6,600) Madsen returns as the starter after missing the last three games with a lower-body injury. I’m not convinced he plays the entirety of the game after what backup Max Cutforth displayed over the last two weeks, throwing for nearly 600 passing yards with two touchdowns vs. Colorado State and Utah State. If playing Madsen, you need to have a Boise State receiver in the lineup too, because he’s unlikely to get much done on the ground coming back from a leg injury.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Boise State throws the ball less than UNLV did this season, ranked 81st in pass rate at just 46%, and with a QB making his first start since the injury, there’s not a ton of motivation to roster any Bronco pass-catcher in our lineups. WR Latrell Caples ($5,400) is the priority play of the group, ranking first on the team in targets (76), receptions (43) and routes run. WR Chris Marshall ($4,800) has been in and out of the lineup due to various reasons this season but did return last week after missing the previous three games. Marshall averages nearly 20 yards per catch, but was completely ineffective last week vs. Utah State, failing to record a reception on six targets. WR Chase Penry ($4,100) has arguably been the most effective Boise wideout over the last month, with a season-high six catches last week vs. Utah State. His playing time dropped, though, with Marshall back in the lineup, playing just 58% of snaps.
Injury Notes – n/a
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- RB Wayne Knight, James Madison
- One of Caden Creel or Cam Cook
- QB Jake Retzlaff, Tulane
- Gabriel Benyard, Kennesaw State
- ***Fit North Texas exposure where possible
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- RB Wayne Knight, James Madison
- One of Caden Creel or Cam Cook
- QB Amari Odom, Kennesaw State
- RB Jamauri McClure, Tulane
- ***Fit North Texas exposure where possible
