Liberty vs. New Mexico State
Point-Spread: Lib -10.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: Lib 32.5 – NMSU 22
Weather: 52 degrees / 68% rain / 6 mph winds
Liberty:
Top Play(s) – RB Quinton Cooley ($6,300) The plethora of options at the quarterback position make Cooley the top play for the Flames, and probably a must-have for our lineups. The Wake Forest transfer rushed for over 1,200 yards and 13 touchdowns this season, dominating the volume share in the Liberty backfield with over 100 carries more than the next closest RB. The Aggies only allow 12.9 FPPG to opposing running backs this season, but NMSU’s front seven is the weak link of the defense. 80th in EPA per play and 96th in rush D success rate. Doesn’t seem like a lot, but running backs are averaging just over three fantasy points more than their seasonal average when playing New Mexico State this season.
Fade – WR Not Named CJ Daniels. Liberty barely throws the football – ranked 130th in pass play percentage – and Daniels commands 27% target share with no other receiver on the roster having more than 20 receptions on the year. WR Noah Frith ($3,000) is on the field a ton, running the second most routes of any wideout on the team, yet has just 12 receptions on the season. Essentially running wind sprints most of the contest. WR Treon Sibley ($3,900) played just six snaps against UTEP in Week 13 but is being reported as good to go for Friday.
Bargain Bin – WR Aaron Bedgood ($3,200) Bedgood won me a small tourney earlier in the year, scoring 20 fantasy points in Week 9 vs. Western Kentucky as he rushed for 68 yards on nine carries, along with 43 yards receiving. Bedgood came over from Coastal Carolina with Jamey Chadwell in the offseason, and is a versatile piece, listed as a starter at two different spots on the CCU two-deep. Finished tied for fourth on the team in targets and fourth in rush yards.
Pivot Play – QB Kaidon Salter ($8,200) Salter has the highest projection of any player among the 20 teams playing on Championship weekend, so he’s absolutely a strong candidate – just gets downgraded to a pivot option because we have four top-tier quarterbacks on this two-gamer. New Mexico State allows the third most fantasy points to quarterbacks among teams playing this weekend and have already given up 35 fantasy points to Salter in their previous meeting this year.
Best of the Rest – RB Billy Lucas ($4,000) For a team that is top five in run play percentage, the backup running back is deserving of a look as Lucas finished the season averaging eight touches a game with five rushing TDs. An extreme longshot that I don’t think I’d even consider further down the depth chart would be true freshman RB Vaughn Blue ($3,000) who made a return to the lineup in Week 13 for UTEP after missing the last 10 weeks due to injury. Blue was projected by some Liberty sites to start ahead of Quinton Cooley this season, so he is highly thought of. Ran for 35 yards on five attempts last week but is at the 4-game max to where another appearance I believe would burn his redshirt opportunity.
Injury Notes – n/a
New Mexico State:
Top Play(s) – QB Diego Pavia ($6,600) Quite a bit more wiggle room with your lineups if having Pavia as one of your two quarterbacks, and while the Liberty defense is good, there’s nothing dominant about the group to where you should be hesitant to play the New Mexico State QB. The Flames are 53rd in pass D success rate and 54th in EPA per pass play defensively, allowing 39 pass attempts per game which was 129th most during the regular season. The biggest hesitancy is that Pavia scored just 13 fantasy points in the earlier meeting.
Fade – QB Eli Stowers ($6,400) Shame that DK hasn’t changed Stowers to his actual position at receiver, because he’d be a viable DFS option otherwise, finishing third on the team in targets with double-digit fantasy points scored in three of the last four games.
Bargain Bin – WR Kordell David ($3,000) I absolutely hate recommending this play as a potential bargain bin option, but the fact is that David has run the most routes of any NMSU receiver in 2023. Hasn’t done much at all with those opportunities – 42% catch rate, four drops and 9.8 YPC average – but is on the field a ton.
Pivot Play – RBs. Roll of the dice. There’s no rhyme or reason as to which RB will be the flavor of the day for this coaching staff between Star Thomas, Jamoni Jones, and Monte Watkins. Liberty is allowing just 11.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, 7th fewest among teams playing this weekend, and the backfield is split three ways. Even if you guess correctly on which NMSU running back has the most carries in that given week, he’s unlikely to move the needle in the standings.
Best of the Rest – WR Trent Hudson ($4,500) Hudson closed the year on a high note with three touchdowns in the last five games, including a season-high five receptions against Jacksonville State. Second on the team in targets (48) and third in routes run, but his 16.4 YPC average and 15.9 aDOT are what make Hudson attractive. He’s the team’s big play threat with 1/3 of NMSU’s receiving touchdowns. WR Jonathan Brady ($4,900) leads the Aggies in every receiving category aside from touchdowns (3). The four highest scoring receivers to face Liberty this season were all slot receivers. Brady played 97% of his snaps in the slot.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oregon vs. Washington
Point-Spread: Oreg -9.5
O/U Total: 65.5
Implied Score: Oreg 37.5 – UW 28
Weather: Dome
Oregon:
Top Play(s) – RB Bucky Irving ($6,900) Same reasoning here as for Quinton Cooley above – we have four viable QB options to choose from and can probably get away without having Bo Nix in our lineups. I don’t believe that’s the case with Bucky Irving, facing a Washington defense that has struggled against the run, ranking 125th in rush D success rate and giving up the third most fantasy points to RBs among teams playing this weekend. Irving has had four performances of 125 rushing yards or more in his career. Half of those have come against Washington.
Fade – WR Traeshon Holden ($3,800) In a matchup of two high-scoring offenses, there aren’t any players that are complete fades. But Holden gets the short end of the stick as the target share for Oregon has crystalized to a point where only the top two receivers are being thrown to. Holden is fourth among Oregon receivers in routes run and has surpassed 30 receiving yards just once in the last seven games.
Bargain Bin – TEs. Washington has allowed the fifth most fantasy points to tight ends among teams playing this weekend. TE Patrick Herbert ($3,000) had the random two touchdown performance against Arizona State two weeks ago, but also found success in the previous matchup with the Huskies with 15 yards and a TD. TE Terrance Ferguson ($3,600) is fifth on the team in targets (42), fourth in receptions (36) and third in routes run.
Pivot Play – RB Jordan James ($4,500) Fun stat – Washington is allowing 7.1 FPPG to RB2s. The most of the 20 teams playing this weekend. James has seen his numbers take a dip over the last six games, failing to hit 50 yards rushing in that span, but this Washington defense has been horrid against the run.
Best of the Rest – QB Bo Nix ($9,500) Heisman Trophy resume booster opportunity here. The trouble is Washington fared well in the first matchup, limiting Nix to just 23 fantasy points and are 56th in pass D success rate. Not great, but good enough to slow down this Oregon passing game. Rostering one or both of WR Troy Franklin ($7,300) and WR Tez Johnson ($6,600) without Nix in the same lineup is also a viable strategy. 25 of 39 targets against Oregon State when to the top two Duck receivers, which is not a one-time occurrence either.
Injury Notes – n/a
Washington:
Top Play(s) – WR Rome Odunze ($8,500) 90 fantasy points scored in the last three games. Odunze also dominated his matchup with the Ducks last time out with 8-128-2 on 12 targets back in Week 7. My only counterargument – Oregon knows who the primary target is and uses extra resources in order to stop Washington’s top playmaker.
Fade – WR Germie Bernard ($3,300) Cheap enough to where you can’t eliminate Bernard from the player pool, but noticeable that his offensive snaps played hit a low at just 32% now that WR Jalen McMillan ($5,600) is fully healthy. McMillan’s 38 snaps played against Washington State was the highest mark since Week 2.
Bargain Bin – TE Jack Westover ($3,300) Third on the team in routes run, targets (41) and touchdowns (4). 13 of Westover’s 34 receptions this season have come in the last three games alone.
Pivot Play – QB Michael Penix Jr. ($9,100) Un-Heisman like numbers from Penix Jr. over the last month, failing to score over 30 fantasy points in the last four games. There’s a chance he’s my favorite QB on the slate. Game script favors Penix as a double-digit underdog. Oregon allows 38 pass attempts per game – 125th in the country. Washington is also fully healthy at receiver for the first time since September. We know the volume will be there. The question is how effective Penix will be facing an Oregon defense that is 13th in pass D success rate and 18th in EPA per pass play. Borderline elite numbers.
Best of the Rest – RB Dillon Johnson ($6,000) This one is tough; hence Johnson winds up in the best of the rest section. Oregon allows the fewest fantasy points to running backs among teams playing this weekend, even ahead of Michigan. But nobody else is getting carries in the Washington backfield. Johnson dominated the volume share against Wazzu last week, getting 21 of the 28 carries, despite being questionable entering the contest. Volume is king in fantasy football.
Injury Notes – n/a
