Oklahoma State vs. Texas
Point-Spread: Tex -13.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: Tex 34 – Ok St 20.5
Weather: Dome
Oklahoma State:
Top Play(s) – RB Ollie Gordon ($9,000) Volume won’t be the issue here; it’s a matter of how effective Gordon will be against a stout Texas defensive front. The Longhorns rank 7th in rush D success rate, 10th in EPA per run play and allowed just 10.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s in 2023. While he would never admit it, Gordon largely became the nation’s leading rusher by his own doing because the Oklahoma State offensive line doesn’t grade out that well according to most metrics.
Fade – WR Jaden Bray ($3,600) Bray is being targeted when on the field, he’s just not on the field that much anymore. Three targets against BYU last week but came on just 16 offensive snaps and nine routes run. The top three receivers for Oklahoma State are firmly established.
Bargain Bin – TE Josiah Johnson ($3,200) Sixth on the team with 21 receptions on 29 targets, running the fifth most routes. Texas really struggled to defend the tight end position this season, allowing 7.3 FPPG to TE1s with four players hitting 11 fantasy points or more against the Longhorns.
Pivot Play – QB Alan Bowman ($6,100) Projections indicate we don’t even consider Bowman here at just 15.1 points. Game script should work in Bowman’s favor as a double-digit underdog, but this Texas defense is strong on the back end as well. The Longhorns are 14th in pass D success rate and give up only 16 FPPG to QB1s.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Those that have kept up with our DFS articles the entire year know the situation here with the Cowboys. 31 of the 44 targets last week went to the trio of Leon Johnson III, Rashod Owens and Brennan Presley who all played at least 80% of the team’s offensive snaps against BYU. That’s been the case for the last month and a half now. Texas is 119th in pass attempts allowed and give up close to 40 fantasy points per game to opposing WR groups. So while we may not have interest in Alan Bowman, the volume should be there for one of the Oklahoma State receivers to hit value.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas:
Top Play(s) – RB CJ Baxter ($5,600) The prized freshman left last week’s contest with a hip pointer injury, but all indications point to Baxter being ready and available for Saturday. The Iowa State contest was the best indication of Baxter’s potential as the RB1 securing 20 carries in his first start, on the road, at night. We know the history of RB1s under Steve Sarkisian and that he’ll ride his workhorse. Oklahoma State has a pedestrian run defense, allowing just under 17 FPPG and 69th in EPA per run play defensively.
Fade – RB Jaydon Blue ($6,000) Impressive performance last week from the former 4-star recruit filling in for the injury Baxter, rushing for 121 yards on just 10 carries against Texas Tech. Does he hit that mark, though, if Baxter was healthy? The only way in which Blue reaches value here is (a) Baxter is surprisingly out or still less than 100%, or (b) this is a blowout. Gundy has won 9 of the last 13 games against Texas, with the last few B12 title games all decided by single digits…so a blowout seems unlikely.
Bargain Bin – TE Ja’Tavion Sanders ($3,700) Few Big 12 teams utilize the tight end position, but the ones that do dominated this Oklahoma State defense this season. Kansas’ Mason Fairchild and Kansas State’s Ben Sinnott combined for 40 fantasy points against the Cowboys.
Pivot Play – QB Quinn Ewers ($8,500) Nightmare performance from Ewers in his last showing against Oklahoma State last year, completing 19-of-49 passes with three interceptions. Safe to say Ewers will be plenty motivated for this matchup. This is definitely a byproduct of playing in the B12, but of the teams playing on Saturday, Oklahoma State is allowing the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (22.6).
Best of the Rest – WRs. Similar to Baxter, Xavier Worthy left last week’s contest, but appears he’s 100% for Saturday. Oklahoma State is allowing 20.4 FPPG to opposing WR1s this season, and all reports indicate this will be Worthy’s final game in a Texas uniform with the wideout likely declaring for the NFL Draft. Same goes for Adonai Mitchell. Would only roster one in a lineup and not stack the two together. The potential x-factor here is Jordan Whittington – someone we’ve faded all year. But the middle of the field is open for opposing wideouts facing the Cowboys, as four of the top five highest scoring receivers to face Oklahoma State play in the slot.
Injury Notes – n/a
Miami (Ohio) vs. Toledo
Point-Spread: Tol -7.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: Tol 26 – Mia (OH) 18.5
Weather: Dome
Miami (OH):
Top Play(s) – RB Rashod Amos ($6,200) The former South Carolina transfer has essentially been the entire Miami (Ohio) offense during the month of November, averaging 16 attempts per game with multiple 100-yard rushing performances. For as good as Toledo is in the secondary, they’re just a run of the mill MAC defense when it comes to stopping the run, ranking 84th in rush D success rate. The Rockets allow the second most fantasy points to running backs of the teams playing this weekend. Amos scored just 11.5 fantasy points in the first meeting with Toledo but this was when the RedHawks were still splitting carries in the backfield. The top two Miami (Ohio) RBs combined for 23 fantasy points that day. We’d take that easily from Amos.
Fade – QB Aveon Smith ($5,800) Give Smith credit in that he’s currently 9-4 as a starter with the RedHawks, who are now undefeated in 2023 with the sophomore quarterback under center. Smith is also a very capable runner at a cheap salary which doesn’t fully remove him from contention. With that said, he’s a below-average passer facing the best secondary in the MAC as Toledo ranks 9th in pass D success rate and allows just 13 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – WR Javon Tracy ($3,500) The 6-foot-0 redshirt freshman was mostly a non-factor until the month of November when he entered the starting lineup and has been impressive the last two games with 193 yards and 11 receptions on 14 targets. He leads All Miami (Ohio) receivers in combined targets the last three weeks.
Pivot Play – WR Cade McDonald ($4,500) Last three years with Mac Hippenhammer and Jack Sorenson, it’s been the primary outside receiver that finished as Miami (Ohio)’s WR1. Not this year. Larvadain spent most of his time in the slot when healthy and active. Last few games, either Tracy or former Michigan State transfer Cade McDonald have led the team in targets. McDonald had nine last week with a touchdown against Ball State. Also different than year’s past is the RedHawks are not incorporating a tight end into the passing game. Tracy, McDonald, Miles Marshall, and Joe Wilkins Jr. all played over 67% of the team’s offensive snaps last week.
Best of the Rest – WR Joe Wilkins Jr. ($4,100) or WR Miles Marshall ($3,500) The two primary outside receivers on the outside. Here’s exactly why we should not care about either player and focus our attention to the slot receivers in Tracy or McDonald. Aveon Smith is 27-of-41 (66%) throwing the football between the numbers over the middle of the field. When throwing to outside receivers beyond the hashes, Smith is 15-of-36 (41%) with just one touchdown.
Injury Notes – WR Gage Larvadain ($5,100) Miami (Ohio)’s WR1 has not played in two weeks after battling injury for much of the year. Slate-breaking upside if Larvadain can go, as evidenced by his early-season performances with nearly 100 fantasy points scored in the first three weeks.
Toledo:
Top Play(s) – RB Peny Boone ($7,700) Six times in the last seven games Peny Boone has hit over 20 fantasy points with five 100-yard rushing performances. The game in which Boone did not hit 20 points? His Week 8 matchup with Miami (Ohio) where the RedHawks limited Boone to just 73 yards on 17 attempts with zero catches. This is not just a Boone thing either. Miami (Ohio) did not allow a single running back all season to score more than 17 fantasy points in a game, giving up just 11.3 FPPG to RB1s. I’ll keep Boone as Toledo’s top play because of how good he’s been this season, but if you wanted a reason to pivot away from the crowd…
Fade – RB Jacquez Stuart ($5,800) One of those players that I’ll continue to fade and just live with the results. Miami (Ohio) is too good defensively and too well coached to get blown out in my opinion, so the RB2 will likely be irrelevant unless Stuart hits an explosive run or two. Double digit fantasy points in each of the last four games this season for Stuart but came against four of the bottom-feeder rush defenses in the MAC.
Bargain Bin – WR Jaden Dottin ($3,300) The former Penn State transfer made the rounds on the national networks last week for his absurd touchdown grab against Central Michigan. Dottin’s season-high in targets (6) also came in Toledo’s previous matchup with the RedHawks.
Pivot Play – QB Dequan Finn ($7,800) While Finn and Boone dominate the production share for Toledo, the game total probably isn’t high enough to warrant playing both players in a lineup together as I don’t believe this game has much shootout potential. So we have to choose one or the other. Finn will undoubtedly be the lesser owned of the two, and his matchup isn’t great either, as the RedHawks allowed just 13.9 FPPG to QB1s in the regular season. Unlike Boone, though, Finn did have a solid game against Miami (Ohio) his first time out with 24 fantasy points.
Best of the Rest – Pass-Catchers. Same story as it was during MACtion here, so I don’t anticipate many surprises. Jerjuan Newton continues to lead the team in every receiving category and 36% of the team’s receiving touchdowns. Junior Vandeross III has at least three receptions in each of the last three games, but yardage output is minimal. Miami (Ohio) was 30th nationally in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers during the regular season. Anthony Torress is third on the team in routes run and fourth in targets (29). One of his best performances of the season came against Miami (Ohio) in the first meeting with 49 yards and a score on five targets.
Injury Notes – n/a
Boise State vs. UNLV
Point-Spread: BSU -2.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: BSU 30.5 – UNLV 28
Weather: Dome
Boise State:
Top Play(s) – RB Ashton Jeanty ($8,000) My prediction is this will be Jeanty’s last game in a Boise State uniform as there are some unverified reports out there that the sophomore running back will hit the transfer portal after the season concludes. No surprise given Jeanty is probably one of the 5-10 best running backs in all of college football. UNLV allows 16 FPPG to RB1s and are 85th in rush D success rate.
Fade – WR Billy Bowens ($3,400) Ranks first on the team in routes run and targets (44) among players that are still on the current roster but has not had a single receiving yards in any of the last two games. Fewer than 25 receiving yards in over half the games played this season.
Bargain Bin – WR Prince Strachan ($3,400) If Boise State has a future building block at the WR position, it is the 6-foot-5 true freshman who’s shown glimpses already with 128 yards receiving in a Week 11 matchup with New Mexico. A 16.6 yards aDOT for Strachan who is slotted into Eric McAlister’s old role as the team’s top deep threat. WR Austin Bolt ($3,300) also entered the starting lineup as he returned from injury, running the third most routes among receivers against Air Force.
Pivot Play – QB Taylen Green ($6,700) Against a better defense than UNLV, Green was solid in his first game back as the full-time starter, completing 77% of his throws for 228 yards with two total touchdowns. Two interceptions didn’t help his cause, but Boise State doesn’t have another QB to turn to like they did earlier in the year. UNLV allows the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks among teams playing this weekend and are 119th in EPA per pass play defensively.
Best of the Rest – RB George Holani ($6,300) Volume didn’t change, but just apparent to anyone with eyes the noticeable difference in talent between Holani and Ashton Jeanty. 52 yards and a touchdown on 16 rushing attempts vs. AF. Stacking Jeanty and Holani together in a lineup is a potential longshot GPP option because of how much Boise State will run the football.
Injury Notes – n/a
UNLV:
Top Play(s) – WR Ricky White ($6,700) Tough to say there is a stone-cold lock for an 8-game slate, but White is the closest thing to a lock as the clear-cut top wide receiver by a country mile. 35% of the team target share, 50% of UNLV’s receiving touchdowns and six 100-yard receiving performances in the last seven games. I simply don’t think there’s a way of getting around “not” having White in your lineup. Boise State’s secondary is nowhere near as good as it was a year ago, ranking 78th in EPA per pass play, and allowing 18 FPPG to opposing WR1s.
Fade – RB Courtney Reese ($3,600) We’ll cover off on the running backs below, but Reese is the odd-man out in a deep rotation as his carries have diminished as the season has gone along.
Bargain Bin – TE Kaleo Ballungay ($3,000) Two touchdowns in the last three games for Ballungay who ran the third most routes of any UNLV pass-catcher last week in the loss to UNLV. Of the teams playing this weekend, Boise State is allowing the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends (7.9). WR Corey Thompson Jr. ($3,000), a true freshman, caught three passes for 50 yards and a score last week in his most extended action of the season, running the second most routes behind Ricky White. Still listed as a second-stringer on the official depth chart, but maybe UNLV is looking for another playmaker late in the year at wideout.
Pivot Play – RBs. We correctly predicted this coming into the season with regards to offensive coordinator Brennan Marion and the go-go offensive system that there will not be a volume eater at running back. That held true with three running backs having anywhere between 93 and 117 rushing attempts this season. If you subscribe to the Vegas prop bet predictions, Vincent Davis has the highest number on the prop market of the three running backs, coming off 88 yards rushing against San Jose State. The former Pitt transfer also holds a slight 25-20 edge over Jai’Den Thomas in red-zone opportunities, despite the 12-15 advantage for the latter in rushing touchdowns. All three are viable, but also shouldn’t fret about fading the entire group given it’s a true RBBC. Boise State is 72nd defensively in EPA per rush play, allowing 17 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Best of the Rest – QB Jayden Maiava ($6,800) The Rebels have a building block in the freshman quarterback who completed 64% of his passes for 2,600 yards and 14 touchdowns. Boise State is a middle of the road pass defense, allowing 19 FPPG to quarterbacks, with five different QBs scoring 20 or more fantasy points against the Broncos. There’s a shot this game shoots out, so I like Maiava as a potential QB option. That said, this is also a run-based offensive scheme, ranking 23rd nationally in rush play percentage. WR Jacob De Jesus ($3,200) is second on the team in receptions (46) and targets (62) – extremely cheap for a player of his level of production. Preferred on DK as De Jesus is averaging just 9.8 YPC with only two touchdowns.
Injury Notes – n/a
SMU vs. Tulane
Point-Spread: Tul -5.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: Tul 27 – SMU 21.5
Weather: 69 degrees / 66% rain / 10 mph winds
SMU:
Top Play(s) – RB LJ Johnson ($5,100) We’ve been burned a few times this season by SMU running backs, huh? Jaylan Knighton had an unannounced suspension back in September, and now Johnson was held out against Navy unbeknownst to everyone. HC Rhett Lashlee has confirmed that everyone in the RB room will be available for Saturday. If the head coach is being truthful, we’ll go back to the well with Johnson who seemingly took control of the SMU backfield with 20+ carries against both Memphis and North Texas. Tulane’s strength is limiting the run, ranking 15th in rush D success rate and giving up just 11.7 FPPG to RB1s this season, so a ton of risk here with rostering Johnson or any SMU running back for that matter.
Fade – QB Kevin Jennings ($6,400) The way some of you discuss CFB DFS in the Discord, I already know you’re going to play Jennings this week regardless of the matchup and how difficult it may be. I can’t say I’ve watched any recruiting videos of Jennings, but I do know he’s a 3-star recruit that ran track in high school, so we know he’s mobile. The fact that SMU was his only FBS offer to play quarterback is notable, though. What is disappointing is that this would’ve been a good matchup for Stone, as Tulane ranks 90th in pass D success rate and 60th in EPA per pass play.
Bargain Bin – WRs. They’re all $4k and below, but it’s a matter of landing on the right one. Not an enviable task I’m sure for even SMU fans who watch this team every week. SMU’s leading receiver accounts for just 13% target share with seven different wideouts accounting for anywhere between 31 and 45 targets in 2023. Add in a backup QB, potential rain and Tulane’s strong defense, and we’re likely fading this entire group.
Pivot Play – TE RJ Maryland ($4,700) Only known commodity at this point on the SMU roster. First in targets, receiving yards, routes run and touchdowns (7). Tulane allowed just 4.8 FPPG to TE1s this season, but those players averaged close to 45% above their seasonal fantasy output when facing Tulane in 2023.
Best of the Rest – RB Jaylan Knighton ($4,700) Expect a run-heavy game script from the Mustangs on Saturday and Knighton is the team’s RB2 when healthy. Double-digit rushing attempts in five of the last seven games. Likely would have been six had Knighton not been injured in the first quarter against Memphis.
Injury Notes – QB Preston Stone ($8,400) Stone will miss the rest of the season with a broken leg. The concern now (for College Fantasy) is if this injury lingers into 2024 which would be a massive disappointment given how good the SMU QB1 was during November.
Tulane:
Top Play(s) – RB Makhi Hughes ($6,400) Volume, price and production all make Hughes the top play for Tulane…but with some concerns as well. 20+ carries in seven of the last eight games for the true freshman who is dominating the volume share in the Tulane backfield at 56%. Nobody else carries the ball for Tulane. The opposition is where we run into a potential roadblock as this SMU defense has exceptional against the run, allowing just 3.27 YPC for the season and 8th in rush D success rate. Not a single team on the SMU schedule averaged over five yards a carry in their respective matchup. Hughes will have high ownership numbers so a potential pivot in GPP with the SMU run defense.
Fade – WR Yulkeith Brown ($3,400) The former Texas A&M transfer started in place of the injured WR Jha’Quan Jackson ($4,500) last week, catching just one pass on three targets for negative yardage. This one is simple. If Jackson plays – which he is probable – Brown goes back to the bench. Jackson sits and Brown is in play.
Bargain Bin – TE Alex Bauman ($3,300) Too cheap for how involved Bauman is offensively for Tulane, ranked second on the team in routes run, second in touchdowns (5) and fourth in targets (38). SMU only allowed 4.9 FPPG to TE1s this season, but those players averaged close to 20% above their seasonal fantasy output when facing SMU in 2023.
Pivot Play – QB Michael Pratt ($8,000) Don’t think this game total is high enough to where you can consider both Hughes and Pratt in the same lineup and take down a GPP, so you’ll have to choose between the two if interested in Tulane pieces. And most will be on Hughes as the preferred option. SMU has allowed three quarterbacks this season to score more than 20 fantasy points in a game, and rank 10th in pass D success rate and 12th in EPA per pass play. Combine that with the weather and this doesn’t bode well for Pratt’s chances at hitting 25+ fantasy points.
Best of the Rest – WR Chris Brazzell II ($5,400) The 6-foot-5 redshirt freshman has been the top option for Pratt the last two weeks with the depleted WR room, catching 12 passes for over 200 yards and three scores, while targeted nine teams in each of the two games. Four receivers have scored 20 or more fantasy points on SMU this season.
Injury Notes – WR Lawrence Keys III ($4,800) The former Notre Dame transfer is confirmed out.
Georgia vs. Alabama
Point-Spread: UGA -6.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: UGA 30.5 – Ala 24
Weather: Dome
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – TE Brock Bowers ($7,400) Bowers gets top billing here because he’s the only GPP winning slate-breaker on the Georgia offense at this point with everyone near 100% full health. We have just one game of evidence with Bowers against a Nick Saban-led defense, hauling in four passes for 36 yards and a touchdown in the title game back in 2021. I won’t have much exposure to any UGA player for Saturday.
Fade – WR Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint ($5,800) Assuming Georgia is at full strength at receiver, MRJ will get the short end of the stick in the WR rotation. The last game of evidence we have was in Week 11 against Ole Miss where Rosemy-Jacksaint was targeted just once on 13 passing routes which was a distant fourth among receivers. The same logic applies to WR Dillon Bell ($3,500) but he’s $2.3k cheaper to where you can rationalize considering him.
Bargain Bin – See above on Dillon Bell. Eight receptions on 11 targets in the last two games for the 6-foot-1 sophomore.
Pivot Play – RB Kendall Milton ($6,600) While not the listed starter, Milton is back in the RB1 role after rushing for 156 yards and two scores on 18 carries last week against Georgia Tech. That marked the second-straight week in which Milton saw more rushing attempts than RB Daijun Edwards ($7,400). Just one running back this season scored more than 15 fantasy points against the Tide, and now we are back to the conventional Georgia committee approach in the backfield, which diminishes the value of both players. Would lean Milton if choosing between the two.
Best of the Rest – QB Carson Beck ($8,600) Beck has exceeded all expectations this season and been one of the most consistent quarterbacks in the country. But when you strip it down to the bare bones, you have a non-athlete in a non-high volume passing game. Alabama is 5th in pass D success rate, allowing just 17 FPPG to quarterbacks. Not worth it at $8.6k. WR Dom Lovett’s ($5,300) splits are noticeable when Ladd McConkey/Brock Bowers are in the lineup vs. out of the lineup. He’s also downgraded with UGA at full strength.
Injury Notes – Ladd McConkey, Brock Bowers and Rara Thomas are all expected to play.
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – QB Jalen Milroe ($9,000) This game will be all on Milroe, particularly with Alabama’s RB1 now doubtful for Saturday. No earth-shattering analysis here when looking at Milroe against this Georgia defense. There is no need to stack him with an Alabama wide receiver. UGA is allowing just 14.2 FPPG to QB1s this season, and 4.7 fantasy points below their seasonal average when facing the Dawgs. Just three quarterbacks have scored more than 20 fantasy points against Georgia this season, with all three games decided by more than double digits. That signals to me this defense puts its foot on the gas when needed.
Fade – WR Kobe Prentice ($4,900) Prentice was not targeted a single time vs. Auburn last week, playing just 11 offensive snaps. Probably don’t want to consider a player that was barely used on offense in the team’s second-biggest game of the season.
Bargain Bin – RB Jam Miller ($3,000) I still have an affinity for the 4-star recruit who I believe to be the better talent than both veterans ahead of him. Miller will get 4-6 carries at minimum on Saturday if Jase McClellan is out, and this UGA front seven has not played up to standard defending the run. The Dawgs are 56th in rush D success rate and 106th in EPA per run play.
Pivot Play – RB Roydell Williams ($4,000) See above. Williams will be a major factor even if McClellan plays (more on that situation below). Alabama will be able to run the ball on Georgia.
Best of the Rest – Pass-Catchers. Realistically, the only three options are Isaiah Bond, Jermaine Burton and tight end Amari NiBlack who combined for 16 of the 22 targets vs. Auburn last week. This is an elite Georgia secondary that doesn’t exude much confidence in me wanting to roster any Alabama receivers. The Dawgs allowed the 18th fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers during the regular season.
Injury Notes – RB Jase McClellan ($5,900) McClellan suffered a foot injury against Auburn and was seen coming off the field in a boot with crutches. As of Thursday, I haven’t seen any comments from HC Nick Saban, but the word on the message boards is that McClellan has not participated in practice yet this week. Doesn’t bode well for Saturday.
Appalachian State vs. Troy
Point-Spread: Troy -6.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: Troy 29 – App St 22.5
Weather: 68 degrees / 64% rain / 10 mph winds
Appalachian State:
Top Play(s) – QB Joey Aguilar ($7,000) Severely underpriced for a quarterback that finished as QB10 in college fantasy football with over 360 points scored in 2023. Tough matchup against a Troy defense that allows just 14 FPPG to quarterbacks and 17th in pass D success rate, but we said that about Aguilar’s matchup against James Madison two weeks ago as well, and he finished with 27 fantasy points.
Fade – WR Dalton Stroman ($3,400) With WR Christan Horn ($5,600) back in the lineup, Stroman was relegated to backup duties against Georgia Southern, finishing with a goose egg on three targets, running just 11 routes. Horn stepped right back in as the team’s top deep threat, running the second most routes among App State receiving, catching two passes and a touchdown. Team-high four drops and a 60.4% catch rate but is also second on the team with a 17.3 YPC average.
Bargain Bin – TE Eli Wilson ($3,900) Tied for second on the team in receptions, third in touchdowns (5) and third in routes run. Wilson has been streaking of late with a pair of TDs in the last two games, three in the previous five weeks, and 25% of his season-long targets coming in the last two weeks. I’d reference Troy’s numbers against opposing tight ends this season, but that position is utilized by maybe two teams at most in the Sun Belt.
Pivot Play – RB Kanye Roberts ($5,300) Don’t expect Nate Noel to get a full workload even if he winds up playing, so 10+ attempts are expected regardless from Roberts on Saturday. Some in the community believe the 200-pound sophomore should even be the preferred option over Noel, and hard to deny after averaging 6.0 yards per carry in his first year of extended action. Troy allowed just 13.0 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season and are 29th in rush D success rate.
Best of the Rest – WR Kaedin Robinson ($5,000) Team leader in every receiving category, coming off one of his best performances of the year with 8-108-2 on 10 targets vs. Georgia Southern. Seven different receivers have scored 17 fantasy points or more against Troy this season. The three highest scoring receiver performances against the Trojans in 2023 were all slot receivers, which could bode well for WR Dashaun Davis ($4,300) who was targeted six times in each of the last two games. RB Anderson Castle ($3,400) would be the backup behind Roberts should Nate Noel sit. He came up gimpy apparently in the Week 13 matchup but should be fine for Saturday.
Injury Notes – RB Nate Noel ($5,700) Noel did not play in the season finale vs. Georgia Southern as he’s been banged up for much of the second half of the season. His rushing totals reflect that with the significant volume decline since Week 7. According to the top Appalachian State site, Noel was in a redshirt last week during practice, but has been upgraded to a white jersey in practice. What that entails for Saturday is unknown as of writing this on Thursday.
Troy:
Top Play(s) – RB Kimani Vidal ($7,000) For a player in Vidal that is third in the country in rushing attempts (252), he remains an enigma from a fantasy perspective. Volume isn’t an issue, it’s the production behind an offensive line that has underperformed for two straight years, ranking 111th in EPA per run play and 126th in rush play success rate. Don’t expect those kinds of numbers from Troy when on paper you see a 1,200-yard back in Vidal. That said, the matchup dictates we play him because Appalachian State allows the most fantasy points to running backs among teams playing this weekend.
Fade – Backup RBs. Don’t have the full numbers in front of me, but I’d imagine Vidal has the highest market share among running backs in the country at 60% of Troy’s rushing attempts.
Bargain Bin – TE Ethan Conner ($3,200) I touted Conner in the offseason as a former JUCO transfer that had the ability to play tight end, receiver, and wildcat quarterback. That prediction looked great after one week, with Conner catching a pair of TDs in the opener before fading into oblivion. There’s been a slight resurgence in the last month with seven receptions and two scores in the last four games.
Pivot Play – QB Gunnar Watson ($6,000) Watson will be a popular play on Saturday at this pricing. 20 or more fantasy points in four of his last five games, finishing the season with a 26-5 touchdown to interception ratio and 3,135 passing yards. Appalachian State has a strong secondary, ranking 31st in EPA per pass play and giving up just 15.5 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Troy will rotate four receivers consistently between Jabre Barber, Chris Lewis, Deshon Stoudemire and Devonte Ross to where they’re all viable lineup candidates, but it is also difficult to distinguish which is the preferred choice. Stoudemire runs the fewest routes among the top four so he’s on the field less. Barber leads the team in receptions (61), targets (93) and yards (841), which makes him the preferred candidate on DK in full-point PPR scoring format. Too cheap at $4.4k for a wideout that probably hits 100 targets for the season after this game. Four different receivers have scored 24 or more fantasy points against App State this season, and eight wideouts have scored 17 or more fantasy points. At least one Troy receiver needs to be in your lineup, and potentially two.
Injury Notes – n/a
Michigan vs. Iowa
Point-Spread: UM -23.5
O/U Total: 34.5
Implied Score: UM 29 – Iowa 5.5
Weather: Dome
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Blake Corum ($8,200) This is exactly why Blake Corum only played three quarters in every game prior to entering the month of November. 20+ carries against Penn State, Maryland, and Ohio State, with 20+ fantasy points in each of the last four games. I will be interested to see how Michigan runs the football Saturday without their best offensive linemen who suffered a season-ending leg injury and how that might impact the offense looking towards the College Football Playoff. Iowa allowed the seventh fewest fantasy points in the country to running backs during the regular season if you want an argument against Corum.
Fade – QB J.J. McCarthy ($8,200) Love my QB1 but we’re going to have very limited exposure here. Low projection + high salary being the primary reason. Iowa allowed the second fewest fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks (behind only Michigan). Jim Harbaugh and the offensive coaching staff also reach into their bag of tricks normally in the B1G title game as we’ve seen the last few seasons. Don’t be surprised if we see a RB Donovan Edwards ($5,000) pass attempt – like we did against Ohio State last week. There’s also a shot that we see backup QB Alex Orji ($4,500) line up in the shotgun as he’s considered one of, if not the best, athlete on the entire team. They’ll use him in wildcat packages which, in turn, takes McCarthy off the field.
Bargain Bin – TEs Seven of Michigan’s 17 receptions last week came from either Colston Loveland or AJ Barner, both of whom wound up on All-Big Ten teams this season. For as good as Iowa is at producing tight ends, the Hawkeyes also struggled defending them in 2023, allowing four B1G players to score over 10 fantasy points in their respective matchups.
Pivot Play – WR Cornelius Johnson ($4,200) Just two wide receivers ran more than one route last week against Ohio State. Johnson and WR Roman Wilson ($6,000) barely left the field, and that’ll be the case again Saturday. Major discrepancy in production between the two with Wilson’s 11 receiving touchdowns compared to just one for Johnson. But the 5th year senior also leads Michigan in routes run. Johnson won’t have much ownership, but this is an extremely low price for a guy that never leaves the field.
Best of the Rest – WR Semaj Morgan ($3,500) Looks like a younger version or Roman Wilson or perhaps Ronnie Bell. The 5-foot-10 true freshman only ran one route against Ohio State but has established himself as the WR3 behind Johnson and Wilson, now with at least two receptions in four of the last five games. The Michigan staff has also shown to utilize Morgan on jet sweeps, with two rushing TDs in the last month.
Injury Notes – n/a
Iowa:
What were some of the lower implied team totals of the season? Iowa at Penn State was surely one of them. The Spartans were projected between 6-7 points when Michigan State traveled to Columbus to face Ohio State. But we haven’t had anything below six points until now. Not interested in the quarterback or running back here, but I’m not being sarcastic when I say that some of the receiving options can be viable lineup pieces. WR Kaleb Brown ($3,400), a former Ohio State transfer, had three catches on four targets against Nebraska before sitting out the second half due to injury. Brown is expected to play Saturday. 18 of his 21 targets have come in the last 2.5 games. TE Addison Ostrenga ($3,400) has been a productive player since entering the starting lineup in Week 8 with 20 receptions on 25 targets. Former starting WR Diante Vines ($3,200) is expected to play after missing the three games, though I doubt he’ll regain the starting spot over the aforementioned Brown.
Louisville vs. Florida State
Point-Spread: FSU -2.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: FSU 25.5 – UL 23
Weather: 56 degrees / 31% rain / 8 mph winds
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – RB Jawhar Jordan ($7,100) 62 yards and two rushing scores last week against Kentucky, though Jordan averaged under four yards per attempt with a fumble. We’re also not seeing the same volume share in the backfield that Jordan had earlier in the year, now in a full-fledged 55-45 split with RB Isaac Guerendo ($6,100) which we don’t see changing at this point. The FSU run defense is the lesser of two components on that side of the ball, ranking 60th in EPA per run play and allowing 15 FPPG to RB1s. Just one running back has scored more than 18 fantasy points against the Seminoles this season, so now that we have a RBBC in the UL backfield, neither RB option is a priority.
Fade – QB Jack Plummer ($7,700) FSU secondary is elite, ranking No. 1 in pass D success rate, 4th in EPA per pass play and allowing just 11 FPPG to quarterbacks. There are 2-3 cheaper options at the QB position with higher projections.
Bargain Bin – TE Nate Kurisky ($3,300) Thought it might be a one-time occurrence in Week 12 with Kurisky catching five passes for 50 yards and a score against Miami. Not the case as the redshirt freshman was targeted four times last Saturday against UK. FSU doesn’t allow many fantasy points to the position, but Kurisky is cheap, and Jeff Brohm has an extensive history of producing good fantasy tight ends.
Pivot Play – WR Jamari Thrash ($6,300) Thrash hasn’t been the same since the wrist injury unfortunately, with just 89 receiving yards in the last three games played. That said, the Kentucky performance was his best outing since the injury, targeted eight times and running the most routes of any UL receiver, finishing with 60 yards on six catches. I’d imagine most will fade Thrash because of his late-season spiral, so would favor him most in GPPs. Florida State allows the second fewest fantasy points to receivers among teams playing this weekend.
Best of the Rest – WRs Not Named Jamari Thrash. Five receivers see regular playing time outside of Jamari Thrash, none of which are very productive, and will now face arguably the second-best secondary playing this weekend outside of Georgia. Chris Bell, Kevin Coleman, Ahmari Huggins-Bruce, Jadon Thompson, and Jimmy Calloway are the rotational options. 57 games played this season among that quintet, and just 11 times has one of them surpassed 10 fantasy points in a game. No thanks.
Injury Notes – n/a
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – RB Trey Benson ($6,900) First time all season that Trey Benson posted 16+ rushing attempts in a game last week, rushing for 95 yards and three scores against the Gators. With QB situation in flux, you’d imagine the Seminoles will lean on the run game once again. The question then becomes how successful might Benson be against this Louisville front seven that allowed just 14.7 FPPG to RB1s during the regular season. The positive news for FSU is that the Louisville run defense faltered down the stretch, allowing 28 fantasy points to Miami’s Mark Fletcher, followed by 33 fantasy points this past weekend to Kentucky’s Ray Davis. I trust Mike Norvell to scheme up a game plan to run on this UL defense.
Fade – QB Tate Rodemaker ($6,900) I’d imagine Florida State hits the transfer portal this offseason in search of their replacement for Jordan Travis in 2024. Rodemaker completed less than 50% of his passes against a secondary in shambles in the Florida Gators and came up wobbly after a late hit in the 4th quarter. Rodemaker is still expected to start, but the FSU coaching staff has given three quarterbacks reps in practice. Louisville secondary >>>>> Florida secondary. ***As of Friday morning, there are rumors swirling that freshman QB Brock Glenn could get the starting nod and Rodemaker is not cleared from the late hit taken against UF.
Bargain Bin – WR Ja’Khi Douglas ($3,400) Was targeted just once against Florida, but Douglas has assumed the WR3 role behind Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman, running the third most routes among FSU receivers, playing over 50% of the offensive snaps. Douglas has played running back at times in the past as well, which could be utilized on Saturday. Four highest scoring wide receiver performances against UL this season all came from slot receivers. That’s Douglas.
Pivot Play – WR Keon Coleman ($5,200) or WR Johnny Wilson ($4,900) 16 of the 23 targets last weekend for FSU went to either Coleman or Wilson, which was reflective of their season-long stats as well. With Jordan Travis in the lineup, we could consider stacking both in the same lineup because of the condensed target share + upside with a Heisman-level quarterback. We don’t have that anymore, so would just have one max in a lineup.
Best of the Rest – TE Jaheim Bell ($4,200) Three or more receptions in six of the last seven games for Bell who is third on the team in routes run. Louisville has allowed just one tight end to score more than eight fantasy points against them in 2023.
Injury Notes – n/a
