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Miami (Ohio) vs. UAB
Point-Spread: UAB -10.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: UAB 27.5 – Miami (OH) 17
Weather: 77 degrees / 0% rain / 11 mph winds
Miami (OH):
Top Play(s) – WR Mac Hippenhammer ($6,500) No Brett Gabbert in the lineup means everyone in the passing game gets a downgrade, including Hippenhammer. Averaged 6.25 receptions on 11 targets in the four games that Gabbert played in. Just 3.6 receptions on 7 targets in the eight games that Aveon Smith started. The last two games give us confidence that we could still see a big performance out of Hippenhammer regardless of the QB, where the senior receiver saw a combined 24 targets over the that span. UAB is far better against the pass than the run, but we did see four wide receivers score 19 or more fantasy points against the Blazers this season.
Fade – RBs. Same story, different year. Miami (Ohio) will use up to four different running backs, neither of which will accumulate double-digit carries, and none of them will have much success either. Tyre Shelton ($5,000) sits atop the depth chart this week, but continues to underwhelm, failing to rush for four yards a carry in any of the last four games. I’d probably take a shot on either Kevin Davis ($4,100) or Kenny Tracy ($3,100) if throwing a dart on a Miami (OH) running back – not suggested. Davis is the team’s third-down, pass-catching option. Tracy’s snap counts are mere percentage points behind Shelton’s the last month or so.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – QB Aveon Smith ($6,700) I’m conflicted with this play. On one hand, Smith scored over 60 fantasy points the last two weeks of the regular season, almost exclusively because of his running ability with three rushing scores on 38 attempts. On the other hand, I also remember Championship Saturday where we had this same rationale with CJ Harris of Ohio who was a complete dud. Smith is just as poor a passer, completing less than 50% of his passes. Dual-threats did give UAB the most trouble defensively in 2022 with Kaidon Salter, N’Kosi Perry and Frank Harris all scoring 20+ fantasy points against the Blazers, combining for 156 rushing yards between them.
Best of the Rest – WR Miles Marshall ($5,000) No surprise that Marshall also benefitted from having Gabbert under center with 16 of his 24 receptions coming in games that the QB1 started. Clear-cut WR2 that was second on the team in targets and routes run during the regular season. WR3 Jalen Walker ($3,800) posted a season-high four receptions in the finale but is not listed on the bowl game two-deep – is on the listed roster though in the bowl guide. TE Jack Coldiron ($3,600) finished fourth in targets (34) and routes run, though facing a UAB defense that allowed just one tight end to score double-digit fantasy points against them all year.
Injury Notes – QB Brett Gabbert ($4,900) Barring a late surprise, Gabbert is not expected to participate in the bowl game despite announcing his intentions to return to the team in 2023 after a brief stint in the transfer portal. Gabbert is not listed on the bowl game two-deep.
UAB:
Top Play(s) – RB DeWayne McBride ($7,600) Set and forget…as long as we get confirmation that McBride is active and playing. You might chuckle at that notion, but this is silly season and McBride was just named a third-team All-American. He’s a potential NFL Draft early entry candidate playing in a meaningless game.
Fade – QB Dylan Hopkins ($5,500) Scored more than 20 fantasy points just twice this season and failed to accumulate double-digit fantasy points in three of the last four games. This is simply a run-based offense – 10th nationally in rush play percentage (62%). Whether it’s McBride or Brown carrying the rock, I don’t see a need for UAB to throw much on Friday, particularly in high winds.
Bargain Bin – TE Bryce Damous ($3,500) To those reading this, I haven’t given a rat’s you know what about UAB pass-catchers since I did our first round of CFF projections. Sorry, not sorry. We did not see a Gerrit Prince-like performance this season from a UAB tight end, but Damous did get more involvement as the season wore along with 12 of his 20 targets coming over the last five games.
Pivot Play – RB Jermaine Brown ($6,300) Would not be shocked in the slightest if Brown Jr. somehow ends up in the winning GPP lineup. UAB’s RB2 actually out-carried McBride in two out of the last three games, topping 100 yards rushing against both North Texas and Louisiana Tech. UAB has one of the best G5 offensive lines in the country and would expect them to dominate a MAC defense in the trenches.
Best of the Rest – WR Trea Shropshire ($5,600) One of the most explosive receivers in college football that has finished inside the top five in yards per catch in each of the last two seasons. We have very little interest in the UAB passing attack, but the matchup is there against this Miami (OH) secondary that has allowed 20.3 FPPG to opposing WR1s in 2022. The RedHawks were 82nd in pass play success rate. I’d probably lean WR Tejhaun Palmer ($3,900) as the next best option in the UAB passing game, as he finished second on the team in targets, but selecting any Blazer receiver outside of Shropshire is the literal definition of a crapshoot.
Injury Notes – n/a
UTSA vs. Troy
Point-Spread: Troy -1.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: Troy 28.5 – UTSA 27
Weather: 67 degrees / 9% rain / 7 mph winds
UTSA:
Top Play(s) – QB Frank Harris ($8,200) Will have the highest exposure on the slate next to DeWayne McBride as the clear-cut top quarterback. Tough to envision myself going with a QB pairing that doesn’t have Harris included, but here’s the argument against it. Troy possessed the No. 2 scoring defense in the Sun Belt during the regular season, and were particularly strong against the pass, ranking 27th in success rate, 17th in explosiveness allowed and gave up just 16 FPPG to opposing QBs during the regular season. Just one QB scored more than 22 fantasy points against the Trojans.
Fade – WR Tykee Ogle-Kellogg ($3,500) TOK will be the popular salary-saving candidate on the slate, but is it worth it? Played 69 of 88 snaps in the C-USA title game vs. North Texas and has largely taken most of the offensive snaps for UTSA since the DeCorian Clark injury as the WR3. But aside from the 142-yard performance in the finale vs. UTEP, Ogle-Kellogg has been largely ineffective. Don’t see the value here if he’s going to have more than 30-40% ownership. Particularly in this matchup against this secondary.
Bargain Bin – See above. This is just how I strategize my lineups in DFS by fading the popular bargain bin plays, because there is a far better chance they bust rather than hit. But can admit Ogle-Kellogg is the top option for UTSA that is sub $4k. Has played over 80% of the team’s offensive snaps in each of the last two games.
Pivot Play – WR Zakhari Franklin ($7,400) and Joshua Cephus ($6,900) Combined for 21 of the team’s 33 receptions in win over North Texas. The duo combines for 53% of the team’s total target share and that number jumps to 63% if you eliminate De’Corian Clark from the mix. If trying to differentiate from the pack in a larger GPP, I think the most diverse combination would be pairing these two in a lineup together without Harris. Best strategy is probably rolling Franklin/Harris together.
Best of the Rest – RB Kevorian Barnes ($5,200) Barnes is looking like a Top 10 CFF running back in 2023 after his late-season performance, including his 175-yard outing in the conference title game vs. UNT. Troy is probably better on the backend defending the pass, but are no slouches against the run, allowing just 12 FPPG to opposing RB1s during the regular season. Just two RBs scored over 20 fantasy points against the Trojans, and even limited Quinshon Judkins to just 87 rushing yards – his second lowest output of the season. UTSA’s offensive line ranks 10th in stuff rate and 11th in line yards and is one of the best groups among G5 schools. TE Oscar Cardenas ($4,800) caught a season-high six passes on six targets vs. UNT and has scored twice in the last three games.
Injury Notes – RB Trelon Smith ($3,900) Smith has been a non-factor since early October but is listed as the RB2 on the bowl game depth chart. I would not expect him to see many carries with the emergence of Barnes. No sign of Brenden Brady ($3,000) on the depth chart.
Troy:
Top Play(s) – RB Kimani Vidal ($5,900) Who else was burned by the Kimani Vidal play on Championship weekend? Unfortunately, just a “hot hand” scenario as Vidal was bottled up much of the game vs. Coastal, averaging just 2.6 YPC, and giving way to backup DK Billingsley ($4,200) who scored a touchdown on 1/3 of his rushing attempts. Not impossible but would say the chances of that happening again are very unlikely. UTSA boasts an above average rush defense for C-USA standards, but fell off a cliff the last two games, allowing over 400 combined rushing yards to UTEP and North Texas. I’m going back to Kimani Vidal this week.
Fade – n/a. Everyone listed here under Troy is a potential option as everyone is priced appropriately. Closest option to a fade would be Gunnar Watson.
Bargain Bin – WR Deshon Stoudemire ($4,500) Suggested to fade Stoudemire last time out and I didn’t consider he was facing the lifeless Coastal Carolina secondary. Posted 3-99-1 on four targets. Argument in favor of Stoudemire is that he was one of just five players to see a target vs. Coastal as Troy is not rotating their receivers at all right now. While Stoudemire is on the field plenty, that performance was the first time since Week 6 he’s done anything noteworthy. Under 25 receiving yards in the prior six games. He’s an option but won’t have much exposure.
Pivot Play – WR Tez Johnson ($6,100) Johnson might see the lowest ownership percentage of any Troy receiver given he’s the highest-priced wideout on the slate. As stated above, Troy isn’t rotating their receivers much at all, so the trio of Johnson, Stoudemire and RaJae Johnson are the only options – which we love for easy analysis. Far and away the team’s most effective receiver with 22% target share and 3.61 yards per route run.
Best of the Rest – QB Gunnar Watson ($6,300) I take blame for not emphasizing enough the matchup Gunnar Watson had during championship week facing a terrible Coastal Carolina secondary that had quit on the season knowing their head coach was about to take the Liberty job. UTSA is not Coastal Carolina. 23% of Watson’s passing touchdowns for the year came in one game. The Roadrunners did allow 24.6 FPPG to opposing QBs during the regular season but were also 46th in pass play success rate, and harassed UNT quarterback Austin Aune in the conference championship game. Can’t say outright fade on the second or third best quarterback on a two-game slate, but don’t go into Friday thinking Watson’s last performance was the norm. WR RaJae Johnson ($5,300) was the slate-breaker during championship week with 4-134-2 – the second straight game he topped 100 yards receiving. Just third on the team in targets, but leads all Trojan receivers in routes run, with the highest aDOT (13.4) and YPC average (19.8). UTSA is 46th in pass play success rate, but 110th in explosiveness allowed in the air.
Injury Notes – n/a
