Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan
- Point-Spread: WMU -3.5
- O/U Total: 49.5
- Implied Score: WMU 26.5 – Kenn St 23
- Weather: 61 degrees / 38% rain / 10 mph winds
Kennesaw State:
Top Play(s) – RB Coleman Bennett ($5,600) Strong close to the year for Bennett with back-to-back games of 25 or more fantasy points scored. Kennesaw State isn’t a particularly effective team on the ground, ranked just 84th in success rate and 73rd in line yards, so Bennett is far from a must-play, but his usage in the passing game down the stretch is particularly intriguing. 15 of his 25 receptions came in the last four games, including a season-high seven receptions in the conference title game. Half of WMU’s final four opponents averaged over five yards per carry against the Broncos.
Bargain Bin – WR Clayton Coppock ($4,900) or WR Christian Moss ($4,400) Probably wouldn’t stack multiple KSU receivers in a lineup given it’s a team that throws the ball just 44% of the time but would consider it if we did somehow get word that Gabriel Beynard is out for Friday. Aside from injury, Kennesaw did not rotate WRs down the stretch, particularly in the last three games with Coppock / Moss each playing over 90% of the team’s snaps. Outside receivers have found the most success against WMU this season, as we saw just two weeks ago in the MAC championship with Kam Perry going for 100+. That would favor Moss and his 16.0 YPC average in this situation.
Pivot Play – QB Amari Odom ($7,400) Four viable directions you can go at QB on the slate, with Odom being one, having scoring over 100 fantasy points over his last three games. Rushing usage to close the year is most intriguing for Odom, with double-digit carries in each of the last four contests. Western Michigan only allowed 13 FPPG to quarterbacks during the regular season, but were susceptible to running QBs at times, giving up over 100+ on the ground to Ohio’s Parker Navarro and 50+ yards with a TD to Dequan Finn.
Best of the Rest – WR Gabriel Benyard ($5,600) We’ll be on Benyard watch Friday after he was knocked out of the conference championship game vs. Jacksonville State and left with a concussion. If healthy, Benyard is “by far” the team’s best overall playmaker with 55 receptions and nine touchdowns on 88 targets. Should Benyard sit, WR Davis Bryson ($3,000) would be the replacement in the starting lineup.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – n/a
Western Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Jalen Buckley ($6,700) Buckley is coming off his best performance of the season, rushing for 193 yards on just 19 carries in the win over Miami (Ohio) in the MAC title game. Whether it’s Buckley or the WMU quarterback, you need exposure to the Broncos backfield as they’re essentially an Academy on offense, ranked 8th nationally in run rate at 65%. Kennesaw State allowed over 26 FPPG to opposing backfields this season.
Fade – More than one WMU receiver per lineup. Broncos throw at just a 35% clip.
Bargain Bin – WR Tailique Williams ($3,600) Williams is no longer a full-time receiver for WMU but more so used as a gadget type option to throw off defenses. Williams has not recorded a single catch in two games with just one target in that span. That said, we also recall Williams rushing for 67 yards and a TD on five carries in the season-finale. Bowl games are for gadget plays and gimmicks, so we can see Williams getting some usage in that fashion.
Pivot Play – WR Aveion Chenault ($3,400) or WR Baylin Brooks ($3,200) We cannot stress the importance enough to not have more than one WMU receiver per lineup, and preferably none as 3.5-point favorites. Kennesaw State can absolutely get beaten through the air, though, allowing over 41 FPPG to opposing team WRs during the regular season. Brooks and Chenault led the team in routes run in each of the last five games.
Best of the Rest – QB Broc Lowry ($7,200) Debated having Lowry or Buckley in the top spot for WMU, but there’s four realistic options to choose from at QB with little separation with their projections. Just look at Kennesaw State’s last matchup against a similar offense in Jacksonville State for reasoning to roster Lowry here, giving up 100+ on the ground to QB Caden Creel. Stacking Lowry and Buckley together in a GPP lineup is playable given the volume at which WMU runs the football.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – n/a
Memphis vs. NC State
- Point-Spread: NC St -6
- O/U Total: 58
- Implied Score: NC St 32 – Mem 26
- Weather: 74 degrees / 3% rain / 7 mph winds
Memphis:
Top Play(s) – WR Cortez Braham ($6,000) Braham is one of three “alpha” receivers on the slate with more than 24% of the team’s target share, with Gabriel Benyard (possibly injured) and Isaiah Sategna being the others. 50% of the team’s receiving touchdowns have been caught by Braham in 2025, and his 63 receptions are nearly double the number of the next closest Memphis pass-catcher. Worth spending up for in a matchup where NC State has given up the most fantasy points to wide receivers of any team on this slate.
Fade – RBs. We all understand what will happen here, correct? You will pick Greg Desrosiers Jr., and it will be Sutton Smith going for 100+ rushing yards. You’ll go against the grain and pick Smith for your lineups, and it will be third-stringer Frank Peasant rumbling in for three touchdowns, just as he did in Week 10 vs. Rice. That’s how it works with the Memphis backfield. This is a full-on committee, against an NC State defense that ranked 18th in rush D success rate but was 127th in explosive plays allowed. Knowing that, we might favor Smith in this scenario with his 6.6 YPC average. Smith’s 49.9% breakaway run rate is also best on the team.
Pivot Play – WR Jamari Hawkins ($3,400) or WR Brady Kluse ($3,200) Four out of the last five leading receivers to face NC State this season have been boundary wideouts which would favor either Braham or Brady Kluse who did have a spike performance in Week 11 with 83 yards and a score vs. Tulane. Kluse was thought to be the team’s WR1 heading into the season before Cortez Braham arrived via the portal. Hawkins ranks second across the board on the team in targets, catches, yards and routes run.
Best of the Rest – QB Brendon Lewis ($7,600) Lewis was not fully healthy over the final month of the season, but two weeks off should benefit him against an NC State defense that gave up over 24 FPPG to quarterbacks in the regular season. The Wolfpack cleaned up their secondary issues over the final two weeks but still finished 15th among 17 teams in the ACC in yards allowed through the air. On paper, he has the best matchup on the slate among the QB options.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – n/a
NC State:
Top Play(s) – QB CJ Bailey ($8,200) NC State really complicates this slate. The highest team total, no opt-outs (as of now) and there’s an argument not play anyone from the Wolfpack. Bailey has the lowest projection of the four QBs to consider on the slate, yet he’s the lone player that we KNOW is locked into his role as the starting QB. The biggest issue for Bailey in this matchup is what we saw in the season-finale with 230-pound backup QB Will Wilson ($5,000) running for four touchdowns on 12 carries. Eight of those rushing attempts came inside the red zone, and he’s the biggest X-factor on the entire slate arguably.
Fade – RB Hollywood Smothers ($7,500) A fade that could blow up in our face, but Smothers really struggled down the stretch coming back from injury with just 114 yards over his last three games, averaging less than three yards per carry. Being a redshirt sophomore, he’s another “soft out” candidate that could enter the NFL Draft or hit the open market for more NIL money. Memphis finished 3rd in the AAC in yards allowed on the ground, were 28th in rush D success rate, and don’t have any opt-outs in the front seven that are known.
Bargain Bin – WR Teddy Hoffman ($3,300) Will be curious to see if Hoffman gets extended run in this game as the Wolfpack look towards 2026. The true freshman has done well in spurts this season, with 59 yards and a TD vs. Pittsburgh in Week 9, 74 yards and a score the following week vs. Georgia Tech, and 93 yards in the opener against East Carolina. For a team that doesn’t have impact playmakers at WR, this feels like an opportunity for the freshman to be showcased.
Pivot Play – Any NC State WR. We know the drill, because it’s been the same story the past two seasons. NC State’s leading receiver was the tight end, and no receiver had more than 14% of the target share. WR Wesley Grimes ($4,300) had the best outgoing performance in the regular season with 61 yards and a TD. Grimes and WR Terrell Anderson ($4,100) would get the most exposure in my lineups as the team’s top deep threats, with Memphis ranking 115th in explosive pass plays allowed.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – RB Hollywood Smothers and TE Justin Joly will be the candidates on “opt out watch.”
Alabama vs. Oklahoma
- Point-Spread: Ala -1
- O/U Total: 40
- Implied Score: Ala 20.5 – OU 19.5
- Weather: 51 degrees / 0% rain / 14 mph winds
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – WR Germie Bernard ($6,400) Would limit exposure on both teams to one player max per lineup as this is projected to be the lowest scoring game on the slate, and one that did not produce many standout fantasy performances the first time around. Bama was a WR by committee most of the year, outside of Bernard who is six targets away from 100 on the season. His highest target total (13) came in the previous matchup, finishing with 71 yards and seven receptions.
Fade – RBs. 14th ranked rush offense in the SEC vs. the No. 2 run defense in the conference. Enough said. Jam Miller was back at practice and leading the RB room in drills, so expect at least a 50-50 split between him and Daniel Hill. While the Sooners did finish 116th in explosive run plays allowed, that does not give an advantage to either Miller or Hill, who are lumberers more than speedsters.
Bargain Bin – WR Isaiah Horton ($4,000) Hit or miss WR (could say that about all Bama wideouts aside from Bernard) that leads the Tide in touchdowns this season (8) and has led all Alabama starting receivers in red-zone targets in three of the last four games.
Best of the Rest – WR Ryan Williams ($5,800) Most teams have been in trailing positions against the Sooners this season, including the Tide in the previous matchup, so it makes sense that Oklahoma is gave up around 33 FPPG to opposing team WRs. I would construct lineups around how you think the game script might play out. If you believe OU wins this game, one or two WRs are viable, considering Bama threw the ball 42 times in the previous matchup. Limit one WR per lineup if you believe in Vegas who has Alabama as a 1.5-point favorite now. We will have minimal exposure to QB Ty Simpson ($8,000) who scored just 17 points in the previous matchup while throwing the ball 42 times. We do not think he’s 100% healthy with how he’s performed in the last month.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – TE Josh Cuevas (questionable), RB Kevin Riley (doubtful)
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – WR Isaiah Sategna ($6,100) The third of three alpha receivers on the slate, just two targets shy of 100 on the season and 7 of the team’s 15 receiving touchdowns. No wide receiver had more than four receptions in the first meeting, while Alabama allowed just 25 combined fantasy points per game to opposing team’s WRs in the regular season. That said, slot receivers like Sategna have dominated the Tide in the last two games with Auburn’s Malcolm Simmons going for 100+ in the Iron Bowl and then Georgia’s Zachariah Branch catching five passes and a TD in the SEC title game.
Fade – RBs. Teams can run on Alabama – I’m just not sure OU is the team to do so. The Sooners are 113th in rush D success rate, 111th in line yards, and both Xavier Robinson and Tory Blaylock are less than 100 percent healthy. Add in a healthy Jovantae Barnes that could play a role, as he was shown in pads during practice this week, and this is a spot to avoid.
Bargain Bin – WR Deion Burks ($4,500) or WR Javonnie Gibson ($4,100) Burks is second on the team in target (77), receptions (51), touchdowns (3), while tied with Sategna for the team lead in routes run. Gibson missed the first five weeks due to injury, but found his footing in the last two games, scoring a touchdown vs. Missouri and had a season-high 66 yards on seven targets in the finale vs. LSU. Would limit one per lineup.
Pivot Play – QB John Mateer ($7,800) If forced to choose (you’re not) a QB from this game to play, Mateer would be the selection over Simpson. Mateer was a shell of himself after the hand injury but closed the year with a pair of strong performances with 20+ fantasy points against both Missouri and LSU. Alabama has struggled with mobile QBs in the last two games, allowing 108 yards on the ground to Auburn’s Ashton Daniels, and 39 yards on 13 carries last week to Gunner Stockton. Very likely we see 10+ carries from Mateer on Friday.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – n/a
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- RB Jalen Buckley and / or QB Broc Lowry, Western Michigan
- WR Cortez Braham, Memphis
- WR Germie Bernard, Alabama
- RB Coleman Bennett, Kennesaw State
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- RB Jalen Buckley and / or QB Broc Lowry, Western Michigan
- WR Cortez Braham, Memphis
- WR Germie Bernard, Alabama
- RB Coleman Bennett, Kennesaw State
