Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt
Point-Spread: GT -3.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: GT 27.5 – Vandy 24
Weather: 59 degrees / 30% rain / 13 mph winds
Georgia Tech:
Top Play(s) – QB Haynes King ($8,300) King is our second-highest projected player remaining in bowl season. King, who has dealt with a shoulder injury the last two months, was asked by the media if there were conversations with his head coach about playing in the bowl game. King responded, “coach knows better than to ask me. If I can go, I’m going.” Absolute warrior mentality for a player that has run the football 20+ times in two of the last three games despite a shoulder injury. Vanderbilt is 124th in pass D success rate.
Fade – WR Eric Singleton ($5,100) Just listing Singleton here because DK hasn’t listed him as out (as of Wednesday), and the Georgia Tech WR1 has already signed with Auburn, nor is he on the depth chart. Remove him entirely from your queue.
Bargain Bin – TEs. Five tight ends scored at least 10.1 fantasy points this season against Vanderbilt. Neither Jackson Hawes nor Avery Boyd project all that well, but the duo did combine for 37 receptions on 49 targets during the regular season. Be wary, though, because Boyd did not play much at all over the last five games (listed on depth chart), while Hawes is listed as an “opt-out candidate” by the Action Network.
Pivot Play – RB Jamal Haynes ($5,900) Expecting a run heavy script from the Yellow Jackets without Singleton in the lineup, and to protect a Georgia Tech defense that is ravaged by injury and opt-outs. Five running backs scored 20 or more fantasy points against the Vanderbilt defense this season. Stacking Haynes and King is a GPP option.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Malik Rutherford confirmed via Twitter this week that he’s both playing in the bowl game and returning to GT in 2025. With Singleton out, Rutherford now has triple the number of catches as the next closest GT wideout. Chase Lane had just 20 catches on the season but played over 70% of the team’s offensive snaps. Abdul Janneh will start in place of Singleton. Limit GT receivers to just one per lineup.
Injury Notes – WR Eric Singleton (portal), WR Leo Blackburn (portal), QB Zach Pyron (portal)
Vanderbilt:
Top Play(s) – QB Diego Pavia ($6,100) Not-so-bold prediction – we’re going to see both QBs in this game run the football at least 15 times. Pavia is too cheap here at $6.1k on DK, facing a defense that was 86th pass D success rate and gave up over 22 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks.
Fade – Backups. Vanderbilt doesn’t have any opt-outs and should be excited to play in a bowl game for the first time since 2018. We’re considering the starters on the two-deep and nothing else for Vandy.
Bargain Bin – TE Eli Stowers ($3,900) Some are thinking that Stowers is a potential opt-out, and while that could still be the case, the latest report from the Vanderbilt beat writer is that the star tight end is leaning on returning to the Dores in 2025. Four tight ends scored at least 16 fantasy points against Georgia Tech this season. Hint – that’s a LOT.
Pivot Play – RB Sedrick Alexander ($4,000) Over the last three games, exactly 10 rushing attempts went to Vanderbilt running backs not named Sedrick Alexander. When Vandy runs on Friday, it will likely only be Alexander or Pavia toting the rock. Stopping the run is Georgia Tech’s strength, though, having not allowed a single running back to score over 18 fantasy points all year long.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Vanderbilt is 110th nationally in pass play percentage, and the tight end is the best weapon in the passing game. Suffice to say, we’ll have very limited exposure with the Vandy wideouts. Junior Sherrill and Quincy Skinner are the only two under consideration, as they combined for 56 receptions and five touchdowns. No other Vanderbilt receiver had more than 11 catches on the year.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas Tech vs. Arkansas
Point-Spread: Ark -2
O/U Total: 52
Implied Score: Ark 27 – TT 25
Weather: 61 degrees / 48% rain / 9 mph winds
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Tahj Brooks ($9,700) The biggest asterisk is accompanied by Tahj Brooks being listed as a top play. We know he’s a certified dude with nearly 600 carries over the last two seasons. But that is the exact reason why Brooks (in my opinion) should not play in this meaningless game with bowl game. As of now, Brooks is on the depth chart and no reports that he won’t suit up. Arkansas was stout against the run during the regular season, allowing just 21 FPPG to opposing backfields, so we would not be interested in the backup if we find out Brooks is out.
Fade – QB Will Hammond ($6,400) There are some that believe 4-star freshman Will Hammond is already better than starter Behren Morton, and maybe this is his showcase opportunity for 2025. Maybe that is the case, too. But we’ll fade Hammond this time around without his offensive coordinator (Zach Kittley took the HC job with Florida Atlantic) and WR1 Josh Kelly who opted out.
Bargain Bin – TE Jalin Conyers ($3,300) There weren’t many tight ends better than Conyers over the last three games with 19 targets and three touchdowns in that span. Arkansas could not defend tight ends this season, allowing 12.8 FPPG to the position. WR Drae McCray ($3,000) will start in place of Josh Kelly. He was a colossal fantasy bust last year but does have a 1,000-yard season on his resume back at Austin Peay.
Pivot Play – WR Caleb Douglas ($5,000) Most will look to Coy Eakin because of his salary, but Douglas was the better of the two with a team-high six receiving touchdowns and three 100-yard games this season. He’ll be the de facto WR1 now that Josh Kelly has opted out.
Best of the Rest – WR Coy Eakin ($4,000) Eakin and Douglas rarely left the field this season as Texas Tech did not rotate at receiver. So, barring anything unforeseen, we expect both players to play 90% of the game. Arkansas is poor in the secondary, ranked 105th in pass D success rate and allowed 43 FPPG to opposing wide receiver groups. Stacking Eakin and Douglas in the same lineup together is a possibility, though you’re relying heavily on a freshman QB in that scenario.
Injury Notes – WR Micah Hudson (portal), WR Jordan Brown (portal), QB Behren Morton (out with injury), WR Josh Kelly (opt-out)
Arkansas:
Play anyone at your own risk here. The top three running backs and top three receivers are out. Arkansas will have just six healthy offensive linemen available, missing two starters. I don’t understand how Arkansas’ implied team total is close to four touchdowns.
Here’s the two deep that is a who’s who outside of Taylen Green:
QB – Taylen Green, KJ Jackson
RB – Rodney Hill, Tyrell Reed Jr.
WR – Isaac TeSlaa, Monte Harrison, WR CJ Brown, Dazmin James, Shamar Easter, Krosse Johnson
TE – Andreas Paaske, Maddox Lassiter
Injury Notes – TE Luke Hasz (portal), WR Isaiah Sategna (portal), RB Rashod Dubinion (portal), TE Ty Washington (portal), TE Var’Keyes Gumms (portal), WR Andrew Armstrong (opt-out), RB Ja’Quinden Jackson (opt-out), WR Tyrone Broden (doubtful)
Syracuse vs. Washington State
Point-Spread: SU -16
O/U Total: 60
Implied Score: SU 38 – WSU 22
Weather: 59 degrees / 13% rain / 5 mph winds
Syracuse:
Top Play(s) – RB LeQuint Allen ($8,600) Per HC Fran Brown, “We don’t opt out here” at Syracuse, so all systems go for the Orange. I’m somewhat timid here with Allen considering he’s likely going pro after this season, so maybe we get a soft-out, but he’s got a juicy matchup against a Washington State defense that was 113th in rush D success rate. Not to mention the Cougars will be without their two starting defensive tackles, two starting cornerbacks, a starting safety and starting linebacker.
Fade – TE Oronde Gadsden ($5,600) Reality is that Gadsden is in the same situation as Allen in that he’ll be in the NFL next season (already confirmed by Fran Brown). The difference between the two is that Gadsden is 1-of-4 talented pass-catching options. So we have the risk that Kyle McCord targets other Syracuse pass-catchers and the potential for a soft-out. I’ll look at other options.
Bargain Bin – WR Darrell Gill Jr. ($3,400) Gill started opposite Jackson Meeks on the outside in the last four games, which included a 177-yard performance against UConn in Week 13. Also had three performances with fewer than 10 yards receiving so some risk involved. If we get word that LeQuint Allen will not play, RB Yasin Willis ($3,100) is considered next man up for 2025.
Pivot Play – QB Kyle McCord ($9,000) Quarterbacks averaged 23 FPPG against Washington State this season, a team that was 93rd in pass D success rate and 70th in EPA per pass play. Syracuse was 3rd nationally in pass play percentage and McCord will have all his weapons at his disposal. Just would need Wazzu to keep this game somewhat competitive.
Best of the Rest – WR Trebor Pena ($6,000) or WR Jackson Meeks ($5,800) To 100-target receivers in 2024 that are confirmed to be healthy, active and are returning in 2025. Wheels up. Washington State allowed 46 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receiver rooms this season. Stacking multiple Cuse wideouts in a lineup is fine.
Injury Notes – n/a
Washington State:
Top Play(s) – WR Carlos Hernandez ($3,800) Kyle Williams remains the WR1 here, but I’ll have the most exposure to Hernandez on the slate, primarily because of pricing, but the sophomore receiver scored a touchdown in four of his last six games played this season. Hernandez played over 90% of the team’s offensive snaps in each of the last three weeks.
Fade – RBs. Washington State was more balanced this year offensively, but neither Leo Pulalasi nor Djouvenskey Schlenbaker are even close to the talent that Wayshawn Parker is. Low upside, low floor plays as we don’t know for sure how the carries will be distributed between the two.
Bargain Bin – WR Josh Meredith ($4,100) Blast from the Week 1 past. Meredith was a bust this season, as many, including myself, boasted of him as a top fantasy option in a system that produced plenty of high-end slot receivers. Meredith confirmed that he will not enter the transfer portal and will play on Friday.
Pivot Play – QB Zevi Eckhaus ($10,200) For me, Eckhaus is closer to a fade than a pivot play, considering Washington State will not have its head coach, offensive coordinator, starting running back, or WR2. But remember that the battle between John Mateer and Zevi Eckhaus last right up until Week 1 in the offseason, so this is a talented backup option that lost a competition to a quarterback that finished as QB1 in all of college fantasy football.
Best of the Rest – WR Kyle Williams ($7,400) Team’s leading receiver in receptions (60), yards (1,024), and more than double the number of touchdowns (13) as the next closest Wazzu pass catcher. Four of the top five highest scoring receivers to face Syracuse this season played on the outside where Williams lines up primarily. I’m fine with stacking multiple Wazzu receivers in the same lineup, because they’ll be chucking with a relatively experienced QB like Eckhaus.
Injury Notes – QB John Mateer (portal), RB Wayshawn Parker (portal), WR Kris Hutson (portal), WR Tre Shackelford (portal)
Texas A&M vs. USC
Point-Spread: A&M -4.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: A&M 28.5 – USC 24
Weather: Dome
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – QB Marcel Reed ($6,400) Strictly in terms of motivation for this game, all of that is with the Aggies who lost very little to the transfer portal and will want to cap off a successful Year 1 under head coach Mike Elko. USC did not give up very many fantasy points (15.4) to quarterbacks during the regular season, but the Trojans were also 104th in pass D success rate. So what gives? Well, that’s what happens when facing the likes of Billy Edwards, Max Brosmer and Athan Kaliakmanis’ of the world during the regular season – neither of whom were fantasy stars. Reed scored 20 or more fantasy points this season in six of his eight starts.
Fade – RB EJ Smith ($3,000) Just one carry for the Stanford transfer in the last two games with former 5-star Reuben Owens back healthy. We’d expect Smith to be RB3 at best, and potentially RB4 in this contest with Terry Bussey also getting carries.
Bargain Bin – TE Tre Watson ($3,100) 52% of Watson’s receiving production and targets came in the last three games of the regular season, playing 60% of the team’s snaps. USC wasn’t bad against tight ends this year, but did allow that 47-point performance to Tyler Warren back in October.
Pivot Play – WRs. Limit one Aggie receiver to a lineup as Texas A&M threw the ball just 41% of the time, which ranked 114th in the country. Normal starters for the Aggies, sans Cyrus Allen who entered the transfer portal, so one of Jahdae Walker, Noah Thomas or Jabre Barber is fine. A&M’s leading receiver, Noah Thomas, had just 21% of the team’s target share so the Aggies spread the ball around.
Best of the Rest – RB Amari Daniels ($4,500) USC ranked 80th in rush D success rate and 91st in EPA per run play during the regular season, giving up around 27 fantasy points per contest to opposing backfields. Daniels is the preferred option but look for RB Reuben Owens ($3,600) and Swiss Army Knife WR / RB Terry Bussey ($3,400) to both get run.
Injury Notes – WR Cyrus Allen (portal), QB Conner Weigman (portal), WR Moose Muhammad (out)
USC:
Top Play(s) – WR Makai Lemon ($5,200) 43% of the team’s targets hit the portal already, clearing the way for Lemon as the team’s top pass-catcher, with 69 or more receiving yards in six of his last seven games played. Most will be on Lemon, so no harm in pivoting towards WR Ja’Kobi Lane ($5,700) to gain some leverage against the field. Lane finished the year with a team-best nine touchdowns – four of which came in the last two games. Five SEC receivers this season scored 21 or more fantasy points against this A&M secondary.
Fade – RB A’Marion Peterson ($4,200) Peterson hasn’t seen the field since Week 9, and with no depth chart, we’re unsure as to who the primary RB2 will be behind Bryan Jackson. Unlikely to be worth the risk against a top 40 run defense.
Bargain Bin – RB Bryan Jackson ($3,000) Woody Marks is opting out in preparation for the NFL Draft and primary backup Quinten Joyner committed to Texas Tech out of the transfer portal. The 230-pound 4-star freshman will get the starting nod on Friday after averaging over six yards a carry on 22 attempts this season, including 71-yards in the finale vs. Notre Dame. I’d be surprised if Jackson wasn’t one of the highest-owned players on the slate.
Pivot Play – QB Jayden Maiava ($7,200) If you can score 41 fantasy points against a top 3 secondary in the nation in Notre Dame, it’s certainly possible to replicate that against an A&M defense that is missing three key pieces along the defensive front, including DE Nic Scourton. Four QBs scored 20 or more fantasy points against A&M this season – three of which were LaNorris Sellers, Payton Thorne and Michael Van Buren. Maiava is better than at least two of those QBs.
Best of the Rest – WR Kyle Ford ($3,800) Will serve was the WR3, lining up outside opposite Ja’Kobi Lane with Lemon running in the slot. TE Lake McRee ($3,600) finished fifth on the team in routes run this season with 31 targets despite only playing in nine games. He’ll be more of a factor with a depleted WR room.
Injury Notes – WR Zachariah Branch (portal), WR Kyron Hudson (portal), WR Duce Robinson (portal), RB Quinten Joyner (portal), QB Miller Moss (portal), RB Woody Marks (opt-out)
Navy vs. Oklahoma
Point-Spread: OU -3
O/U Total: 44
Implied Score: OU 23.5 – Navy 20.5
Weather: 60 degrees / 3% rain / 8 mph winds
Navy:
Top Play(s) – QB Blake Horvath ($10,500) Top play by default for the Midshipmen, but we’re not that interested in Horvath here because of pricing. Similar options at cheap prices, all of which can run just as well as the Navy QB1. 21-point projection at a $10.5k salary is of minimal interest.
Fade – Anyone Beyond the Core 4. Horvath, Alex Tecza, Brandon Chapman and Eli Heidenreich make up over 70% of Navy’s offensive production. Don’t select anyone beyond that foursome for the Midshipmen.
Bargain Bin – RB Alex Tecza ($5,900) The Navy run game revolves around the QB, so Tecza would be a longshot play at best. OU will be missing two key pieces in the middle of their defense in Billy Bowman and Danny Stutsman, but the Sooners did finish the regular season No. 4 nationally in rush D success rate and allowed just 16.4 FPPG to running backs which was one of the best numbers in the country.
Pivot Play – RB / WR Brandon Chapman ($5,800) One of Navy’s top multi-dimensional weapons on offense that is on the field over 80% of the time. Chapman ranks third on the team in targets (23), second in receptions (16), second in receiving touchdowns (4) and fourth in rushing yards (252).
Best of the Rest – RB Eli Heidenreich ($7,800) The better version of Brandon Chapman, essentially. Navy’s top slot-back is third on the team in rushing yards (461), while leading the team in every receiving category. Risky play, though, as Heidenreich only averages 8.2 touches per game between running and catching the football.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – RB Xavier Robinson ($6,700) Robinson was OU’s best running back down the stretch with four rushing touchdowns in the month of November, including a 100-yard rushing performance against Alabama. Navy ranks 100th nationally in rush D success rate and this will absolutely be a run-based offensive script with Michael Hawkins in at QB.
Fade – RB Gavin Sawchuk ($5,600) On the surface, this is an easy choice as Sawchuk was arguably the biggest bust in all of college fantasy football. And you’d suspect this game will feature many of the younger options in the backfield – Robinson, Franklin, Tatum. I’m still fading Sawchuk in this matchup, but it is interesting that for all the turmoil this year, he still hasn’t entered the transfer portal which seemed obvious a month ago. Just sayin…
Bargain Bin – TE Jake Roberts ($6,000) Starter Bauer Sharp left for greener pastures at LSU via the transfer portal after leading the team in targets (55) and receptions (42). Roberts, a former North Texas transfer with 76 career catches, is a capable replacement.
Pivot Play – QB Michael Hawkins ($8,000) We know Michael Hawkins can run, so he’s got that going for him in this matchup against an above average Navy defense. But OU continues to have a depleted WR room – most of which entered the portal – and Hawkins hasn’t proven that he can throw the football adequately, averaging just 150 yards per game in three starters. This is a showcase performance potentially for the QB1 job in 2025, though very unlikely with John Mateer transferring in to join his previous offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle.
Best of the Rest – WR Deion Burks ($7,400) Burks has confirmed he’ll be back in 2025, and could be one of the top fantasy wide receivers next season in Ben Arbuckle’s wide open scheme. There’s just one other wide receiver on the OU two-deep that has caught more than 10 passes this season, so expect a heavy target share from Burks on Friday. WR Zion Kearney ($5,700) and WR Ivan Carreon ($5,100) are the other listed starters at receiver on the two deep with a combined nine receptions.
Injury Notes – QB Jackson Arnold (portal), WR Brenen Thompson (portal), WR JJ Hester (portal), WR Jalil Farooq (portal), TE Bauer Sharp (portal), WR Jaquaize Pettaway (portal), WR Nic Anderson (portal), WR Andrel Anthony (portal), RB Jovantae Barnes (opt-out)
Mike’s Core Four:
- RB LeQuint Allen, Syracuse
- RB Tahj Brooks, Texas Tech (if he’s confirmed to play)
- RB Bryan Jackson, USC
- One Syracuse WR at least
