Clemson vs. Kentucky
Point-Spread: Clem -4.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: Clem 24.5 – UK 20
Weather: 53 degrees / 0% rain / 13 mph winds
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – WR Tyler Brown ($5,600) I don’t believe Clemson will be able to just sit back and run the football on this Wildcats defense + the 50-50 split in the Tigers’ backfield puts a ceiling on Will Shipley and Phil Mafah’s fantasy value. Brown has been the team’s most consistent pass-catcher in 2023 and had a strong close to the year with 18 receptions on 23 targets in the final three weeks. Antonio Williams possibly returning for this bowl game is the concern as both play the slot position. Kentucky allowed just 15.3 FPPG to opposing WR1s during the regular season.
Fade – WR Troy Stellato ($4,300) Points will be at a premium in this matchup, and if I’m selecting a Clemson receiver for the slate, I’m either spending up to Brown or going cheap with Adam Randall at min pricing. Stellato has been getting starter reps since Week 5 vs. Syracuse but has been held to under 30 yards receiving in six of the last eight games.
Bargain Bin – WR Adam Randall ($3,100) Production hasn’t been there, but Randall has played over 70% of the team’s offensive snaps in each of the last two games and should increase with Beaux Collins no longer on the team.
Pivot Play – TE Jake Briningstool ($4,500) I’ve listed Briningstool as a Clemson option in practically every writeup and has continually failed us, scoring 15 or more fantasy points just twice all season. Fact is the 6-foot-6 junior tight end was not the impact player we thought he’d be coming into this year. Friday presents an opportunity to change that after Briningstool confirmed he would play vs. Kentucky. The Wildcats allow the most fantasy points to tight ends among teams playing in bowl games. Four different tight ends scored double-digit fantasy points on UK this season, including 26 points from Brock Bowers. To quote the Clemson beat writer covering Clemson bowl practices – “it wouldn’t surprise me if the tight ends got a lot of work in the bowl game.”
Best of the Rest – RB Will Shipley ($6,000) or RB Phil Mafah ($5,800) One or the other, with the slight edge towards the former is far more of a factor in the passing game with 14 targets in the last four games alone. The strength of this slate is the RB position so I would not feel the need to roster either player given the near 50-50 split in volume, combined with the fact the Kentucky front seven is the strength of the defense. The Wildcats held opposing RB1s to just 13 FPPG this season and are 21st in EPA per run play defensively. QB Cade Klubnik ($7,300) did not have the season we expected him to have under offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, but much of which was due to a severely underwhelming group of pass-catchers. There are limited QB options on the slate and Kentucky finished 123rd in pass D success rate.
Injury Notes – WR Beaux Collins (transfer)
Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – RB Ray Davis ($7,600) Davis gets top billing by default only and I do not feel confident in rostering him. He’s already committed to the Senior Bowl (soft-out possibility), Clemson is a favorite, Kentucky will have two starting OL out for this game, and the Tigers run defense limited RB1s to just 14 FPPG. Davis’ saving grace for his fantasy value will be his enhanced ability he’s shown in the passing game with 28 receptions on 35 targets with seven receiving touchdowns.
Fade – TEs. No official depth chart, and the top four of Jordan Dingle, Josh Kattus, Brenden Bates and Khamari Anderson combined for just 24 receptions this season. Dingle and Kattus both missed the season finale due to injury, and Dingle announced his return to UK after previously entering the transfer portal. Too much uncertainty here and not enough production to even care. WR Tayvion Robinson ($4,600) is a likely fade too here as he declared for the NFL Draft. Not officially out, as he was partaking in bowl practices, but production wasn’t enough this season to warrant consideration.
Bargain Bin – WR Anthony Brown-Stephens ($3,000) An extreme longshot that will likely not be worth the risk, but ABS could get the starting nod should Tayvion Robinson not play on Friday. Just five receptions on 14 targets for the true freshman in 2023.
Pivot Play – QB Devin Leary ($6,200) I’d try and fade given how poorly Leary and this Kentucky passing game performed in 2023. But the fact of the matter is that Clemson will be without practically its entire secondary who either opted out or entered the transfer portal. At full strength, Clemson was No. 2 nationally in pass D success rate and allowed just 14 FPPG to opposing QBs. Now? Who knows.
Best of the Rest – WR Barion Brown ($4,800) or WR Dane Key ($5,200) Instead of rostering a non-running QB in Leary, I’d focus more of my attention on the UK receivers facing the depleted Clemson secondary. Top heavy target share amongst the starting three at 64%, with the next closest WR on the team having just five receptions during the regular season. When Leary drops back to pass, it’s likely going in the direction of Brown or Key, plain and simple.
Injury Notes – RB JuTahn McClain (transfer), TE Izayah Cummings (transfer)
Oregon State vs. Notre Dame
Point-Spread: ND -6.5
O/U Total: 41.5
Implied Score: ND 24 – OSU 17.5
Weather: 49 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Oregon State:
Top Play(s) – WR Silas Bolden ($6,100) When Oregon State dropped back to pass in 2023, the ball went in one of three directions. Either to Bolden, Anthony Gould, or Jack Veilling. That’s it. And now two of those players are gone. 10+ targets is not out of the realm of possibilities for Bolden, who will face a Notre Dame secondary without its best player.
Fade – RB Isaiah Newell ($3,400) Newell will move into the RB2 role, but I’m envisioning this staff giving Fenwick 20+ carries, if game script allows, in his final collegiate game. Newell averaged just 3.5 YPC this season.
Bargain Bin – TE Jermaine Terry II ($3,400) The California transfer lost out on the TE1 job this offseason, but understandable given how Jack Veilling transformed into one of the best tight ends in the country. Terry has talent, and Oregon State has had a long string of productive players at the position over the last 5-6 years. Notre Dame did limit TE1s to just 3.4 FPPG this season, though. Oregon State beat writers have shown to be biased at times in their coverage of the team, but WR Jimmy Valsin III ($3,300) also deserves some consideration as he was singled out as a potential breakout.
Pivot Play – QB Ben Gulbranson ($6,000) Feels like déjà vu right now with Gulbranson set to lead Oregon State in a bowl game. The senior quarterback was the bowl game MVP last year in a blowout win over Florida, throwing for 167 yards and a touchdown while also adding 15 rushing yards and another score on the ground. Different circumstances this year, though, as Oregon State is dealing with their own turnover without their RB1, best offensive linemen and most importantly, head coach Jonathan Smith. Notre Dame won’t roll over and die the way Florida did last year.
Best of the Rest – RB Deshaun Fenwick ($4,000) Fenwick is not Damien Martinez, but the drop-off from RB1 to RB2 for Oregon State is not that steep. The Beavers’ offensive line was dominant once again in 2023, ranking No. 3 nationally in rush play success rate and 12th in EPA per run play. Oregon State will be down three starting OL as two suffered injuries late in the year and their best linemen will enter the NFL Draft. Notre Dame allowed just 14 FPPG to opposing RB1s during the regular season, so this isn’t a must-play, but the pricing it too low on Fenwick, especially if Damien Martinez is confirmed out (which he likely won’t play). WR Jesiah Irish ($3,700) is an experienced backup with 24 career receptions that moves into the starting lineup for Gould.
Injury Notes – RB Damien Martinez (likely sitting), TE Jack Veilling (transfer), QB DJ Uiagalelei (transfer), QB Aidan Chiles (transfer), WR Anthony Gould (NFL)
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – RB Jeremiyah Love ($4,400) Not enamored with this play because Notre Dame will likely rotate between three different running backs on Friday, not to mention the Irish will be without three starting offensive linemen. Oregon State was also stout against the run this season, giving up just 12.7 FPPG to RB1s. The depth at RB on this slate means we can look towards better options realistically. That said, Love will get the start and has impressed greatly in bowl practices according to reports. 15+ touches is not a guarantee, though, because of the backfield depth.
Fade – QB Steve Angeli ($6,600) This isn’t Miller Moss coached by Lincoln Riley. It’s a low game total, a quarterback with 15 career passing attempts and a depleted WR corps.
Bargain Bin – WR Jordan Faison ($4,000) I considered potentially putting Faison as Notre Dame’s top play, that’s how good this walk-on was in the final two games with a combined seven receptions, two touchdowns and 28 fantasy points against Wake Forest and Stanford.
Pivot Play – RB Jadarian Price ($4,300) or Gl’Bran Payne ($4,200) A true chance to pivot off Love because most will be on him if choosing a Notre Dame running back. There is not expected to be a volume-eater in the ND backfield on Friday that will garner an Audric Estime-like workload, and both Price and Payne have proven capable at times in 2023.
Best of the Rest – WR Jaden Greathouse ($4,300) Prime opportunity for Greathouse to shine as he enters the starting lineup with Tobias Merriweather in the portal. While Wake Forest and Stanford don’t provide much resistance against the pass, the 4-star freshman did close the year on a high note with touchdowns in each of the final two games. WR Jayden Thomas ($4,100), our projected ND WR1 coming into the year, is once again listed atop the depth chart. While injuries contributed, Thomas fell out of favor in the second half of the season, playing only sparingly in the last four games. TE Eli Raridon ($3,600) will start at tight end with Holden Staes in the portal. Caught three passes and a touchdown in Week 12 vs. Wake Forest. Oregon State allowed 8.2 FPPG to opposing TE1s this season.
Injury Notes – WR Rico Flores (transfer), WR Tobias Merriweather (transfer), QB Sam Hartman (NFL), RB Audric Estime (NFL), WR Chris Tyree (transfer), TE Mitchell Evans (injury), TE Holden Staes (transfer)
Memphis vs. Iowa State
Point-Spread: ISU -10.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: ISU 34 – Mem 23.5
Weather: 40 degrees / 38% rain / 12 mph winds
Memphis:
Top Play(s) – RB Blake Watson ($7,300) The surplus of running backs on the slate means Watson is not a must-have, but the senior running back is so versatile that it’s difficult to envision fading him. Iowa State is average across the board defensively, ranking 67th in rush D success rate and giving up 14.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Watson has found the end-zone via the run in each of the last six games and in 9-of-12 games played in 2023. If Iowa State loads the box, Watson is arguably the best pass-catching RB in the country with 50 receptions on 56 targets which is third on the team.
Fade – RB Sutton Smith ($4,000) Smith did have his second-best game of the season in the finale vs. Temple with 14 fantasy points, but that came in a blowout scenario against Temple, and Sutton got the majority of his production with 31 receiving yards and a TD as a pass-catcher. I expect Watson to dominate the backfield market share as a double-digit underdog, and when Memphis gets inside the 10-yard line, in comes fellow RB Brandon Thomas ($4,500) as the red-zone vulture. Don’t see a path for Sutton to hit value unless there is an injury.
Bargain Bin – TE Anthony Landphere ($3,800) Tight ends have found a great deal of success this season against the Cyclones with TE1s averaging 8.6 FPPG. Four players scored 12 or more fantasy points against Iowa State.
Pivot Play – WR Joe Scates ($4,700) Former team revenge game narrative. Have to make sure that Scates is suited up in the pregame as he did declare for the NFL Draft but is listed as a starter on the depth chart. Scates was trending upwards in the month of November with 25 of his 49 season-long targets coming in the final four weeks. Season-high 78 yards and a TD on eight targets in the finale.
Best of the Rest – QB Seth Henigan ($8,500) Game script wise, this matchup favors Henigan as a solid play with Memphis being a double-digit underdog. Teams averaged 36 passing attempts per game against the Cyclones, which was 19th most in the country. That said, Iowa State allowed just 17 FPPG to opposing QB1s. If not Henigan, you could look towards the top two receivers in WR DeMeer Blankumsee ($6,200) or WR Roc Taylor ($6,300) as we know the volume will be there. That duo combined for 111 receptions, 10 touchdowns and 41% of the team’s target share. Iowa State allowed just 21 FPPG combined to the WR1s and WR2s in the regular season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Iowa State:
Top Play(s) – RB Abu Sama ($5,700) If there was a player at the onset of bowl season that I was most excited to watch, the 3-star freshman would be high on the list. Sama’s reps began to increase as the season progressed with Eli Sanders and Cartevious Norton underwhelming. We saw glimpses against TCU with a 55-yard touchdown in Week 6, followed by 110 yards on just eight attempts in a Week 11 blowout of BYU. The momentum came to a head in the finale against Kansas State in a blizzard where Sama rushed for 276 yards and three touchdowns in the win. Now, Sama faces a Memphis run defense that allowed 20.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s and 103rd in rush D success rate.
Fade – Pass-Catchers beyond the Big 3. Bowl games are good exposure to some of the younger players on the roster for a coaching staff, but I wouldn’t risk it here considering Iowa State might give Sama 25+ carries on Friday. The top three of Jaylin Noel, Jayden Higgins, and Benjamin Brahmer account for 62% of the team’s target share.
Bargain Bin – TE Benjamin Brahmer ($4,200) Priced up a tad from where he was listed during the regular season, the 6-foot-7 freshman became an integral part of the Iowa State passing attack, finishing third on the team with 26 receptions and two touchdowns. Just a 50% catch rate with a team-high four drops is why his production isn’t better. Four tight ends scored 10 or more fantasy points against Memphis this season.
Pivot Play – QB Rocco Becht ($6,800) Most DFS players will be on Sama for this slate, and you’re not pairing him and Becht together in a lineup, so Becht is the ultimate pivot for a scenario of Memphis loading the box. While the Tigers were better against the pass than the run in 2023, they still allowed 20 FPPG to QB1s and were just 74th in pass D success rate. Becht should be able to throw on this secondary.
Best of the Rest – WR Jaylin Noel ($6,400) and/or WR Jayden Higgins ($5,500) For reasons stated above about the centralized target share, stacking Noel and Higgins together is a possible GPP option, though not preferred. Having one of the two in your lineups is advised as Memphis allows the third most fantasy points to wide receivers among teams playing in bowl games. And Noel is by far the preferred option of the two as the team leader in most receiving categories. The four highest scoring receivers to face Memphis this season all play in the slot, where Noel lines up.
Injury Notes – RB Eli Sanders (transfer), RB Cartevious Norton (transfer), TE DeShawn Hanika (transfer)
Missouri vs. Ohio State
Point-Spread: OSU -2.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: OSU 25.5 – Mizzou 23
Weather: Dome
Missouri:
Top Play(s) – WR Luther Burden ($7,900) No Marvin Harrison Jr. (most likely) means Burden is the top WR on the slate. Ohio State has been dominant against opposing WRs, allowing just 11.7 FPPG, but we’ve stated several times how those numbers are inflated facing inept passing offenses in the Big Ten. Burden averaged 12 targets per game during the regular season.
Fade – RB Nathaniel Peat ($4,000) Don’t think we have any soft-out worries with RB1 Cody Schrader as a fringe Day 3 NFL Draft pick, so we’ll fade the former Stanford transfer who’s seen his carries diminish in the second half of the season. Peat’s eight rushing attempts in the finale were the result of the blowout against Arkansas.
Bargain Bin – TE Brett Norfleet ($4,200) Yet another freshman that saw his playing time increase as the season went along. Nice three-game stretch to close the year with eight of his 17 receptions coming in that span, including two touchdowns in the finale vs. Arkansas.
Pivot Play – WR Mookie Cooper ($4,100) Former team revenge game narrative 2.0 on the slate. Cooper, a former Ohio State transfer, is second on the team in routes run and third in targets (42). Fewer than 35 receiving yards in 6-of-12 games played this season, so a high risk, low floor type play, but Cooper is on the field all the time.
Best of the Rest – RB Cody Schrader ($7,700) Was there a better running back in college football during the month of November? Debatable, as the senior RB averaged over 30 fantasy points in the last five games. Ohio State is an elite run defense, though, allowing the fourth fewest fantasy points in the country to RB1s and No. 5 nationally in rush D success rate. I can see fading Schrader in this spot. QB Brady Cook ($8,100) is our highest projected QB on the slate, so he gets my nod for one spot. WR Theo Wease ($5,400) leads all Missouri WRs in routes run and second in targets (71). He’s the pivot play off of Burden if you chose to do so.
Injury Notes – n/a
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – WR Emeka Egbuka ($6,000) Egbuka has been practicing all week, so the expectation is that he’ll play on Friday and should see the highest target share on the team with the expectation that Marvin Harrison Jr. officially opts-out. Missouri allowed just 16 FPPG to opposing WR1s, but the secondary is the weakness of the defense, ranking 94th in EPA per pass play. Missouri’s two best defensive players opted out of the game, both of which are in the back seven.
Fade – n/a. No Ohio State player that we need to remove from the player pool. All Buckeyes are priced appropriately.
Bargain Bin – WR Carnell Tate ($3,500) I’d imagine Tate will function as the WR2 with Harrison and Julian Fleming not playing. The 5-star played intermittently over the second half of the season, with a season-high 79 yards coming in Week 7 vs. Purdue. Should be a good preview for 2024. WR Xavier Johnson ($3,700) will start in the slot most likely and serve as the team’s RB3 so he’ll be on the field plenty. Despite numerous 5-stars on the roster, veteran WR Jayden Ballard ($3,700) is expected to be the first WR off the bench to spell either Egbuka or Tate on the outside.
Pivot Play – QB Devin Brown ($6,900) Comparative situation to USC’s Miller Moss in that Brown has now been with the program for multiple seasons, will be auditioning for the QB1 job in 2024, has a top-tier play caller as a head coach and will be throwing to multiple 5-stars at receiver. Expecting six touchdowns? Absolutely not, but Brown is better than Kyle McCord in the eyes of some analysts. Missouri allowed 19.6 FPPG to opposing QB1s.
Best of the Rest – RB TreVeyon Henderson ($7,000) Rumors swirling about Henderson’s impending future decision about returning to school or heading to the NFL. He’s been full-go in bowl practices and confirmed on Wednesday that he will play vs. Missouri. Arguments to be made that Henderson is Ohio State’s top DFS play with a lack of depth in the Buckeye backfield with several transfers, but the Missouri run defense has been exceptional. The Tigers held four of its last five opponents to under four yards per carry. TE Cade Stover ($5,000) confirmed he will play in the bowl game and should be the second option in the passing game behind Egbuka. Missouri allowed three tight ends to score 12 or more fantasy points against them in 2023.
Injury Notes – WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (NFL), QB Kyle McCord (transfer), WR Julian Fleming (transfer), RB Chip Trayanum (transfer), RB Miyan Williams (injury), RB Evan Pryor (transfer)
