North Texas vs. Texas State
- Point-Spread: Tex St -13.5
- O/U Total: 60.5
- Implied Score: Tex St 37 – UNT 23.5
- Weather: 56 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
North Texas:
Top Play(s) – RB Makenzie McGill II ($4,500) McGill rushed for 145 yards and two scores in the finale vs. Temple. While it was a shared workload with starter Shane Porter, the latter is in the transfer portal – albeit still listed on the depth chart. In that scenario, you’d have to think McGill will lead the Mean Green in rushing attempts. Texas State grades out well against the run but allowed five running backs this season to score at least 20 fantasy points this season.
Fade – RB Shane Porter ($5,000) Risk isn’t worth the reward here for me. Will likely be a 50-50 split with McGill and Porter is in the portal.
Bargain Bin – WR Miles Coleman ($4,000) The freshman slot receiver is a name to watch in 2025 after being targeted 18 times over the last two games alone. His 10 targets vs. Temple came when DT Sheffield played minimal snaps. Notable as DT Sheffield committed to Rutgers for 2025.
Pivot Play – WR Damon Ward Jr. ($6,500) No DT Sheffield means Ward is the team’s WR1 and a potential slate-breaker as we’ve seen multiple times this year with two multi-touchdown performances. Would not go overboard on Ward exposure as Texas State’s secondary has been the strength of the defense. Just one wide receiver all year scored more than 15 fantasy points against Texas State.
Best of the Rest – QB Drew Mestemaker ($8,500) The 6-foot-4 freshman threw just six pass this season in garbage time, including 56 yards in the blowout loss to Texas Tech. 247Sports does not have a rating for the freshman quarterback, nor any offers listed outside of North Texas. Can’t discount him because there are no certainties on this slate at the QB position. WR Blair Conwright ($4,400), WR Dalton Carnes ($5,200) and WR Landon Sides ($3,000) are rotational options if doing multi-entry GPP but would heavily favor Coleman or Ward.
Injury Notes – QB Chandler Morris (portal), WR DT Sheffield (portal), TE Oscar Hammond (portal), WR Nick Rempert (portal), WR Jeremiah Aaron (portal), RB Ikaika Ragsdale (portal), RB Shane Porter (portal – but listed on depth chart)
Texas State:
Top Play(s) – QB Jordan McCloud ($9,000) Obviously, the top QB on the slate…IF he plays. An ominous tweet was sent out (since deleted) that McCloud may not play the entirety of the game as he prepares for the Shrine Bowl. So, our analysis is… check for pregame reporting, if there is any.
Fade – TE Konner Fox ($3,200) Fox didn’t play in the finale due to injury and there likely won’t be any reporting in the pregame. Texas State doesn’t throw to the tight ends enough to warrant consideration.
Bargain Bin – RB Lincoln Pare ($3,400) Pare had a season-high 26 attempts for 96 yards in the finale vs. South Alabama, and that was with splitting carries with Ismail Mahdi who committed to Arizona via the portal. Conventional thinking is that Pare will get the bulk of the work this week. North Texas finished 107th in rush D success rate and allowed over 34 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Pivot Play – QB Brad Jackson ($6,400) We saw the freshman QB get playing time in Week’s 11 and 12, and impressed, throwing for 102 yards and a touchdown vs. Southern Miss. Jackson is an athlete too, with four rushing touchdowns in three games, including 100+ yards on the ground vs. Louisiana-Monroe. IF we get word McCloud will see limited snaps or not play at all, Jackson instantly becomes the best QB on the slate.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Everyone outside of Kole Wilson is supposed to play, so WR Joey Hobert ($6,300), WR Jaden Williams ($5,400) and WR Chris Dawn Jr. ($3,800) are all in play. RB Torrance Burgess Jr. ($3,700) moves up to RB2 on the depth chart with Mahdi departing, and North Texas is bad enough on the ground to consider Burgess or Pare as options. Burgess averaged over 6 yards a carry this season, and has plenty of experience, rushing for 600+ yards for UTEP in 2023.
Injury Notes – RB Ismail Mahdi (portal), WR Kole Wilson (portal)
Minnesota vs. Virginia Tech
- Point-Spread: Minn -9.5
- O/U Total: 42.5
- Implied Score: Minn 26 – VT 16.5
- Weather: 40 degrees / 2% rain / 10 mph winds
Minnesota:
Top Play(s) – RB Darius Taylor ($7,600) Top running back on the slate by a mile. Virginia Tech is without five defensive starters and two rotational linebackers. Virginia Tech was average against the run this season, ranked 10th in the ACC in yards allowed per game and 61st in rush D success rate. And those numbers are at full strength.
Fade – n/a. All Minnesota starters are priced appropriately.
Bargain Bin – TE Jameson Geers ($3,300) Three touchdowns in the last four games for Geers which put him tied for the team lead. WR Le’Meke Brockington ($3,300) averaged just 1.3 receptions per game but ran the third most routes on the team.
Pivot Play – QB Max Brosmer ($6,000) The safest (?) quarterback on the slate. We’ve actually seen some upside from Brosmer this year, scoring 25+ fantasy points twice, and Virginia Tech will be without three starters in the secondary. There’s no risk of a goose egg with Brosmer, which cannot be said about the other three situations where there’s risk involved.
Best of the Rest – WR Daniel Jackson ($5,800) Debatable whether Taylor or Jackson would be the top Minnesota option. Just more WRs to choose from on the slate. 100+ targets for two consecutive years, accounting for 33% of the team’s target share and five or more receptions in each of the last six games. WR Elijah Spencer ($3,700) rarely left the field this season, running the second most routes on the team, and averaged 5.1 targets / 3.8 catches per contest.
Injury Notes – RB Jordan Nubin (portal), RB Sieh Bangura (portal)
Virginia Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Bhayshul Tuten ($8,300) Operating for now under the premise that Tuten will play on Friday, but it’s tough not to see a scenario where he potentially sits out after dealing with all the injuries to his foot this season. Minnesota ranked 8th nationally in rush D success rate, but also allowed five running backs to score over 20 fantasy points this season.
Fade – QB Collin Schlee ($7,000) No official word (as of Wednesday) as to who is starting at QB. Kyron Drones is likely doubtful. Schlee is officially questionable and could try to play. Not risking that at this pricing against a Minnesota defense that allowed just 12.8 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. Only one QB all year scored more than 20 fantasy points against the Gophers.
Bargain Bin – WR Ali Jennings ($3,900) Lone starting receiver left that is playing in this game with Jaylin Lane and Da’Quan Felton opting out. Jennings had a resurgence against Duke in Week 13 with 158 yards on nine targets, looking like the Old Dominion version of himself.
Pivot Play – QB Pop Watson ($4,500) Watson getting the start, regardless of the status of Drones or Schlee, makes all the sense in the world given this could be his offense in 2025. Watson started the finale vs. Virginia and impressed, throwing for 257 yards along with 65 yards and a score on the ground. A running QB at this price is worth playing, regardless of how good the Minnesota secondary is.
Best of the Rest – RB Jeremiah Coney ($3,100) If Tuten sits, Coney likely gets the starting nod with Malachi Thomas in the portal. Rushed for 93 yards on nine attempts vs. Syracuse earlier in the year. Alongside Ali Jennings in the wide receiver rotation will likely be WR Stephen Gosnell ($4,600) and WR Ayden Greene ($4,100).
Injury Notes – RB Malachi Thomas (portal), WR Da’Quan Felton (opt-out), WR Jaylin Lane (opt-out)
Mike’s Core Four:
- QB Jordan McCloud, Texas State (if confirmed he plays)
- RB Darius Taylor, Minnesota
- WR Daniel Jackson, Minnesota
- RB Lincoln Pare, Texas State