Georgia State vs. Connecticut
Point-Spread: UConn -7.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: UConn 28 – GSU 20.5
Weather: 63 degrees / 0% rain / 13 mph winds
Georgia State:
Top Play(s) – RB Michel Dukes ($5,200) The former Clemson and USF transfer is on his way to having his most productive season in six years at the collegiate level, now the team’s second leading rusher averaging over seven yards a carry. Dukes is still RB2 currently behind Freddie Brock, but his usage in the passing game over the last three weeks is why he gets the top spot. Just 16 total receptions between 2019-23, Dukes already has 25 catches on 28 targets this season, 19 of which have come in the last month.
Fade – RB CJ Beasley ($3,400) The former Coastal Carolina transfer made his first appearance of the season back in Week 7 and has been effective in his brief time on the field, averaging over six yards per attempt. The gap between him and the top two RBs looks to be substantial, though, with just nine carries in three games.
Bargain Bin – WR Ja’Cyais Credle ($3,300) Production certainly isn’t there for Credle, who has just four receptions on 13 targets with minimal yardage. But if Williams is out, we know Credle will be on the field at least. Georgia State did not rotate at wideout at all vs. Appalachian State in Week 9, with Credle playing 87% of the team’s snaps.
Pivot Play – WR Ted Hurst ($7,900) Pricy investment for Hurst, particularly after the last few weeks where he’s been a relative non-factor with just four receptions in the last two games. But Hurst has scored a touchdown in five of seven games this season and has shown to have slate-breaking capability with multiple 100-yard performances and three games of which he was targeted 10 or more times. Five wide receivers have scored 16 or more fantasy points vs. UConn this season.
Best of the Rest – RB Freddie Brock ($5,700) Georgia State’s bowl game hero from a year ago with 200+ rushing yards against Utah State, Brock is the team’s RB1, averaging around 67 YPG on the ground on 12 attempts per. QB Zach Gibson ($6,800) doesn’t get much consideration from me in this spot with UConn’s strength on defense being in the secondary. QBs are averaging just 14 FPPG vs. the Huskies and there’s always the threat of Gibson splitting time with Christian Veilleux. TE Dorian Fleming ($5,100) is a weapon at tight end, ranked second on the team in targets (48), routes run, and first in receptions (32). WR Petey Tucker ($4,600) has eight targets in the last two games and has played 76% of the team’s offensive snaps in that stretch.
Injury Notes – WR Tailique Williams ($5,400) Brady Weiler on X is the team’s top beat writer. He’ll have updates Friday during pregame as to who is available or not, as he did last week, if you want to turn on his notifications. Williams, Sy’Veon Wilkerson and Jordan Ford did not travel with the team last week. TBD on their availability.
Connecticut:
Top Play(s) – RB Durell Robinson ($5,000) The single most difficult position to figure out in all of college fantasy football this season is the Connecticut RB situation. I’m pretty sure the Huskies have had at least four different leading rushers at some point this season, if not more. We’ll ride the hot hand with Robinson here, who is coming off a 132-yard performance vs. Rice in Week 9. The Charlotte transfer is a former ESPN 300 recruit that held several P4 offers coming out of high school. Georgia State is atrocious defensively in all facets.
Fade – QB Nick Evers ($6,900) This is absolutely a slate to consider playing just one QB, because the options to choose from are appalling. Evers, the former Wisconsin transfer and 4-star recruit, has thrown for fewer than 100 yards three times already in 2024. UConn is a run-based team, ranking 97th nationally in pass play percentage, and not sure the Huskies will need to throw much to beat Georgia State given their deficiencies against the run.
Bargain Bin – RB Mel Brown ($4,000) Brown is tied with Robinson for second on the team with 74 rushing attempts, and is a talented player, having rushed for 1,000 yards over two seasons back at Gardner-Webb. Georgia State’s defense is allowing 33.6 FPPG to opposing backfields this season, so Brown can be rostered as a standalone option or even with Robinson because of UConn’s run-heavy scheme.
Pivot Play – RB Cam Edwards ($4,900) At one point in the year it looked like Edwards was going to run away with this backfield, rushing for over 230 total yards and two touchdowns between Week’s 3-5. Downhill since then, averaging just 2.6 YPC over the last three weeks. But the point we tried to hammer home at the top is that this backfield is completely unpredictable. Edwards continues to see 7-10 attempts per week.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Limit one UConn receiver in your lineup as the Huskies have a low volume passing offense. Connecticut doesn’t rotate at receiver, so you really have just three options in Skyler Bell, former Akron transfer Jasaiah Gathings or Purdue transfer TJ Sheffield. Bell leads the team in touchdowns (4), while Gathings has played over 90% of the team’s snaps the last two games.
Injury Notes – n/a
South Florida vs. Florida Atlantic
Point-Spread: USF -2.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: USF 26 – FAU 23.5
Weather: 80 degrees / 13% rain / 22 mph winds
South Florida:
Top Play(s) – RB Kelley Joiner ($5,500) Similar to the UConn running back rotation, it’s been a revolving door at the position for USF as well. In that case, we’re rolling with the hot hand in Joiner who scored 32 fantasy points last time out vs. UAB with 128 total yards of offense and three scores. FAU is mediocre at defending the run, ranking 72nd in success rate, 75th in EPA per rush play and giving up 24.4 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Fade – QBs. Not in love with this situation where we could see any of USF’s top three quarterbacks. Bryce Archie has gotten most of the first-team reps in practice according to HC Alex Golesh, but Byrum Brown is still around and ready if called upon apparently, despite dealing with a lingering leg issue. And Golesh even went as far as to say QB3 Izzy Carter is ready to roll when called upon.
Bargain Bin – WR Sean Atkins ($4,400) No offense has been more disappointing in college fantasy football than USF where both Byrum Brown and Sean Atkins were selected in the top two rounds of most CFF drafts. Atkins has been mostly hampered by the QB play, as he’s yet to find the end-zone this season. Numbers are down all over, as Atkins has as many drops in seven games as he did all last year. With that said, he’s still averaging 7.4 targets per game with a 70% catch rate, which is fine for us on DK in PPR formats at this pricing.
Pivot Play – RB Nay’Quan Wright ($4,600) Kelley Joiner led USF in rushing in Week 1 with 78 yards. The following week vs. Alabama, it was Wright who led USF running backs in carries. Kelley Joiner rushed for 100+ vs. Southern Miss in Week 3. In Week 4, Joiner and Wright were tied for the team lead in carries. You see my point. This backfield can go several different directions.
Best of the Rest – Remaining WRs. For the most part, I’ve tuned out USF since October started with how substandard the offense has been. Looks like the coaching staff is turning to some of the younger receivers based on how the reps are being distributed lately. WR Joshua Porter ($3,300) and Keshaun Singleton ($4,000) combined for 12 targets vs. UAB in Week 8, with Singleton topping 100 yards and a touchdown.
Injury Notes – QB Byrum Brown ($7,200) If we get word that Brown will start on Friday, I’ll quickly pivot to him as the top QB option but sounds unlikely with Archie getting the first-team reps in practice this week.
Florida Atlantic:
Top Play(s) – QB Cam Fancher ($6,500) Fancher’s passing ability is mostly inconsequential to us. 60 or more rushing yards in four of the last five games, now facing a defense in USF that allows over 27 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks and rank 118th in pass D success rate. LOW floor here with Fancher because of his limitations as a passer, but the options are scarce out there for this slate.
Fade – WR Marlyn Johnson ($4,100) As we saw last year with LaJohntay Wester, and now this year with Omari Hayes, slot receivers are the primary spot in the Tom Herman offense. Johnson is third on the team in targets (16) but sixth in routes run as FAU rotates 5-6 wideouts fairly frequently. If daring to roster an FAU receiver, it’ll be one of Hayes, Coombs or Tucker.
Bargain Bin – WR Caleb Coombs ($3,800) Recency bias plays a major part in our decisions here on the slate as this includes several teams that rotate a LOT at the skill positions. Six of Coombs 11 targets this season came vs. UTSA in Week 8, and he does have a rapport with Fancher as both were Marshall transfers this offseason. Coombs is downgraded if Milan Tucker and Omari Hayes do play as they all reside in the slot.
Pivot Play – RB Zuberi Mobley ($4,700) Campbell is the RB1, but the FAU backfield is the undoubted strength of the offense with Mobley as the 1B option, averaging over five yards per carry with four rushing TDs. The difference of just 14 carries between the two backs for the season, with Mobley having the higher YPC average. Not out of the realm of possibilities that Mobley outperforms Campbell on Friday.
Best of the Rest – RB CJ Campbell ($5,600) Campbell has been FAU’s best fantasy option this season, scoring 20 or more points in four of the last five games. That came to a halt vs. UTSA, limited to just 16 yards on nine attempts. South Florida will allow fantasy points to opposing RBs – around 29 FPPG – but the Bulls rank 8th nationally in rush D success rate. FAU may struggle to find traction consistently in the run game.
Injury Notes – WR Milan Tucker ($4,000) Questionable for Friday after missing Week 8. Tucker is an App State transfer that is considered one of the fastest players on the team. O
San Diego State vs. Boise State
Point-Spread: BSU -23.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: BSU 40.5 – SDSU 17
Weather: 52 degrees / 74% rain / 11 mph winds
San Diego State:
Top Play(s) – RB Marquez Cooper ($7,700) It would take a minute to look this up but I wonder when the last time was that a college running back had 200+ carries in four straight seasons. In the day and age of RBBCs, what Cooper is likely to accomplish feels very rare. No other running back on the team has more than 20 carries so if you like guaranteed volume, Cooper is your guy. Boise State is average defending the run, but is only allowing 14.9 FPPG to opposing backfields this season.
Fade – WR Jordan Napier ($5,200) If San Diego State has their full roster intact at receiver, I think Napier gets bumped out of the rotation. Promising freshman year for Napier, now with close to 200 yards receiving in the last three games. But he only played 35% of the offensive snaps vs. Wazzu – significantly less than the veteran wideouts on the roster.
Bargain Bin – WR Nate Bennett ($3,600) The Portland St transfer has come on in recent weeks with 70 or more receiving yards in two of the last three games, with 15 of his 22 targets coming in that stretch. Bennett was thought to be a candidate to be San Diego State’s WR1 coming into the year.
Pivot Play – WR Ja’Shaun Poke ($4,700) The former Kent State transfer now leads all San Diego State receivers in targets (49) and receptions (34), though hasn’t found the end-zone once in 2024. Poke has had his best two-game span since 2022 the last two weeks with 18 receptions on 21 targets, while Louis Brown has been on the shelf. TE Michael Harrison ($3,600) was finally utilized vs. Washington State in Week 9, catching six passes on eight targets. He can be a matchup nightmare in the slot as a converted receiver.
Best of the Rest – QB Danny O’Neil ($5,800) Steady improvement from the true freshman QB over the course of the season, throwing for 200+ yards in three of the last four games, completing 63% of his throws. The knock on O’Neil vs. other QBs under head coach Sean Lewis is that he doesn’t run. QBs under Lewis in the past like a Collin Schlee for example were true dual threats. Boise State is just 65th in pass D success rate this season, giving up 24 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Injury Notes – WR Louis Brown ($5,500) Brown was the team’s leading receiver until an internal suspension forced him out of the lineup last week. Have to double-check his status pregame.
Boise State:
Top Play(s) – RB Ashton Jeanty ($11,700) You know the drill here at this point. FWIW – San Diego State is 124th in EPA per run play and 109th in rush D success rate. This is a much better matchup for Jeanty than last week vs. UNLV.
Fade – WRs Not Named Cam Camper. Others can try and figure out the WR situation beyond Cam Camper – it won’t be me. For all intents and purposes, tight end Matt Lauter is “WR2.” Austin Bolt is the most appealing of the group as he’s second on the team with three receiving touchdowns and a 15.4-yard ADOT which is the highest on the roster.
Bargain Bin – TE Matt Lauter ($4,500) The junior tight end is second on the team in receptions (24), targets (33) and tied for the lead in touchdowns (4). Lauter tied a season-high vs. UNLV with nine targets. SDSU allows around 10 FPPG to opposing tight ends, which have had consistent success vs. the Aztecs. Five players have already scored at least nine fantasy points in their respective matchups.
Pivot Play – WR Cam Camper ($5,900) Quiet night for Camper vs. UNLV, held to a season-low 36 yards on three catches. The Indiana transfer still leads Boise State in all receiving categories, and had been incredibly consistent prior to that, surpassing 50 yards in every game.
Best of the Rest – QB Maddux Madsen ($7,100) The rare occasion when we need to give consideration to playing Madsen who “might” be the top QB option on the slate. San Diego State is better vs. the pass than the run but are allowing 22 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. Four quarterbacks have scored 20 or more fantasy points against the Aztecs, including Evan Svoboda who has been since benched at Wyoming.
Injury Notes – n/a
