UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina
Point-Spread: UTSA -10.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: UTSA 33 – CCU 22.5
Weather: 42 degrees / 1% rain / 8 mph winds
UTSA:
Top Play(s) – QB Owen McCown ($7,900) Lock it in. QB situations for the three other teams on the slate are in disarray and McCown was exceptional down the stretch for UTSA.
Fade – RB Robert Henry ($5,400) ***For now, we’ll fade Henry who did not play in the finale vs. Army. While Henry is on the depth chart, we’re letting the betting markets talk to us here, and Henry is not listed for any rushing or TD props. Last time that occurred in Bowl Season was Florida’s Montrell Johnson, and we saw how that went.
Bargain Bin – RB Brandon High ($3,700) Could be a showcase game for UTSA’s projected RB1 for 2025. Coastal was very poor defending the run in 2024, ranked 105th in rush D success rate and allowed 25 or more fantasy points to four different running backs. If Henry is out, expect former Texas Tech transfer RB Bryson Donnell ($3,000) to backup High.
Pivot Play – TEs. Heavy tight end usage for the Roadrunners this season with a combined 126 targets and 11 touchdowns between four different players. Of note, opening day starter Oscar Cardenas is out for the season and TE3 Dan Dishman played just a combined 16 snaps in the last two games. So, if interested in Dishman, make sure he’s actually playing. Fine playing either of TE Houston Thomas ($3,500) or TE Patrick Overmyer ($3,300) who are on the field an equal amount.
Best of the Rest – WRs. If we’re basing this off the most recent evidence, the preferred WR options among the UTSA pass-catchers would be WR Devin McCuin ($6,300), who played 93% of the snaps in the season finale vs. Army, or WR David Amador ($5,200) who was exceptional down the stretch with multiple double-digit target outings. Five wide receivers scored at least 18 fantasy points against CCU this season, and stacking the two together is a viable strategy. WR Chris Carpenter ($5,800) did not play in the season finale, so must double check his status pregame. WR Willie McCoy ($5,500) and WR J.J. Sparkman ($3,200) split snaps against Army, devaluing their standing for this slate.
Injury Notes – Robert Henry watch in pregame. RB Kevorian Barnes (Portal), WR Jace Wilson (portal), TE Dan Dishman (injury), WR Chris Carpenter (injury)
Coastal Carolina:
Top Play(s) – RB Braydon Bennett ($6,800) Not surprisingly, all game previews for Coastal suggest the Chants will lean on the run game as they’re down to the 3rd– and 4th-string quarterback(s). UTSA is strong against the run, finishing second in the country in rush D success rate, but Bennett is capable of hurting defenses in multiple ways, finishing the year with 20 receptions on 26 targets (sixth on team).
Fade – Backup RBs. RB2, RB3, RB4 are all in the portal, so if Braydon Bennett is not carrying the ball, it’ll likely be RB Matt Pack Jr. ($3,000) who has all of six carries for the entire year. As we alluded to above, UTSA is far from a pushover defending the run, so we’ll lean towards Bennett only here.
Bargain Bin – WR Senika McKie ($3,800) FIVE wide receivers scored 30 or more fantasy points against UTSA this season. McKie had a strong close to the year with 18 targets in the last two weeks, and two touchdowns in the finale vs. Georgia State. NOTE – double-check the status of WR Cameron Wright ($4,000) who missed the last two games with injury. Not a coincidence that McKie flourished in that stretch as they play the same position.
Pivot Play – QB Tad Hudson ($4,500) Head coach Tim Beck made a joke to the media that he’s open to tryouts from reporters as Coastal will be without both Ethan Vasko and Noah Kim as they entered the transfer portal. Hudson is confirmed to start on Monday, but Beck also said, “we have Alex Walker as well,” so not out of the realm of possibility we see multiple QBs. Neither player attempted a pass during the regular season, though Hudson is a North Carolina transfer that was a 4-star recruit with multiple P4 offers coming out of high school. FWIW – UTSA allowed over 27 FPPG to quarterbacks during the regular season so the pass defense for the Roadrunners is quite vulnerable.
Best of the Rest – WR Jameson Tucker ($5,500) Team leader in targets (53) and receptions (30), with 33% of the team’s receiving touchdowns (6). Eight of WR Kyre Duplessis’ ($3,000) 13 targets this season came in the last two games alone, playing the third most snaps among CCU receivers behind Tucker and McKie. TE Cane Berrong ($3,400) will likely start in place of Kendall Karr who entered the portal.
Injury Notes – QB Ethan Vasko (portal), QB Noah Kim (portal), TE Kendall Karr (portal), RB Christian Washington (portal), RB Simeon Price (portal), RB Darren Lloyd (portal)
Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State
Point-Spread: NIU -3.5
O/U Total: 39.5
Implied Score: NIU 31.5 – Fres 22.5
Weather: 47 degrees / 3% rain / 0 mph winds
Northern Illinois:
Top Play(s) – RB Telly Johnson ($6,500) Johnson will start in place of Antario Brown, just as he did the last four games of the season with four rushing touchdowns and multiple 100-yard performances. Fresno State is solid against the run, allowing just 16 FPPG to opposing running backs. That said, both starting DTs hit the portal, as did a starting linebacker for the Bulldogs. Two of said players wound up at P4 destinations, so I’d imagine they’re pretty good players.
Fade – n/a. At price there is no NIU player that needs to be faded. Just don’t play any portalers.
Bargain Bin – TE Grayson Barnes ($3,500) Barnes should not be the cheapest starting pass-catcher for NIU, ranked third on the team on targets (45) and receptions (25). Barnes is also second in routes run.
Pivot Play – RB Gavin Williams ($5,600) NIU tends to be a run-based offense as it is – that should especially be the case with a backup under center. And while Telly Johnson is the odds-on favorite to lead NIU in carries, we’ve seen multiple times this year already where Williams has been the preferred option over both Johnson and Antario Brown. Three touchdowns in the last four games for the former Iowa transfer.
Best of the Rest – QB Josh Holst ($5,800) Holst is the second QB option on the slate if you decide to play one. Both CCU and Fresno State could use multiple quarterbacks. And we have some evidence that Holst is somewhat capable, throwing for 210 yards along with 48 yards rushing against Toledo back in October. WR Cam Thompson ($4,800) and WR Andrew McElroy ($3,800) are the listed starters at receiver on the depth chart. Thompson led all Huskies in routes run, and second in targets (47).
Injury Notes – QB Ethan Hampton (portal), RB Antario Brown (not on depth chart), WR Trayvon Rudolph (portal), WR Keyshaun Pipkin (portal), WR Dane Pardridge (not on depth chart)
Fresno State:
Top Play(s) – RB Bryson Donelson ($3,400) There’s a Bryson Donelson and Bryson Donnell (UTSA) on the slate so don’t get them confused! Donelson is a talented freshman that could easily assume the RB1 for Fresno State next season, with good size already at 205 pounds and a solid recruiting offer sheet that included Boise State (I think they know how to develop RBs), Boston College and Washington State. Donelson averaged nearly nine yards a carry over the last two games, including 140 yards against Colorado State in Week 13.
Fade – QBs. OR situation at QB for Fresno State between Jayden Mandal and Joshua Wood…without multiple starting receivers. NIU also finished the season No. 9 nationally in pass D success rate and allowed just 12.4 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – WR Chedon James ($3,000) or WR Lyndon Ravare ($3,000) Will be the fill-in starters for Jalen Moss and Raylen Sharpe who hit the portal. Would slightly favor James here as he’s the most experienced option with a 1,000-yard season on his resume in 2023 at Idaho State. We thought he’d be a bigger factor this season.
Pivot Play – WR Mac Dalena ($6,100) We’ll see. Dalena is the only full-time starter remaining at WR yet has already declared for the NFL Draft so how much motivation does he have to play. We’ll monitor it in the pregame.
Best of the Rest – RB Elijah Gilliam ($5,500) Donelson will start, but Gilliam is a capable backup with 13 rushing touchdowns in the last two seasons. We’d be surprised if Donelson had 20+ carries with such an experienced backup like Gilliam behind him.
Injury Notes – QB Mikey Keene (portal), WR Jalen Moss (portal), WR Raylen Sharpe (portal), RB Malik Sherrod (portal), WR Tim Grear (portal). Mac Dalena watch in pregame.
Mike’s Core Four:
- QB Owen McCown, UTSA
- RB Braydon Bennett, Coastal Carolina
- RB Telly Johnson, Northern Illinois
- WR David Amador and / or WR Devin McCuin, UTSA