***Prices not out prior to writing
Penn State vs. Arkansas
Point-Spread: Ark -2.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Weather: 72 degrees / 0% rain / 14 mph winds
Penn State:
As of writing this Thursday evening, still no salaries out on DraftKings so we are in the dark here in terms of where to value players. No Jahan Dotson as he opted out in preparation for the NFL Draft. Game total suggests we don’t have to load our rosters up with players from either team, but I think Sean Clifford could be a decent play here even without his start receiver. We know Penn State can’t run the ball worth a damn this season, and facing a Top 25 run defense in the Razorbacks, so would assume he’s chucking it at least 33 times like he averaged during the regular season. Clifford did not run nearly as much as we expected coming into the season, but still averaged around seven attempts per game so there’s some chance for added value with his legs. Clifford will also have more time in the pocket with Arkansas’ star pass rusher Tre Williams opting out of the game.
138 targets are departed with the loss of Dotson, so the expectation is that WR2 Parker Washington and KeAndre Lambert-Smith will be featured heavily in the passing game. That trio combined for 65 percent of the total team target share. Arkansas has a lock-down corner in Montaric Brown that likely moves over to cover KLS on the outside with Dotson being out. Washington likely is the best play of the day for the Penn State offense. 6-foot-4 redshirt FR Malick Meiga, who caught a 67-yard touchdown late in the year vs. Rutgers, is likely to start opposite Lambert-Smith with possibly veteran Cam Sullivan-Brown rotating in. Being down a few receivers means the tight end position could get additional looks in the passing game with the trio of Brenton Strange, Theo Johnson and Tyler Warren. The Razorbacks allowed just two tight ends this season to score 10+ fantasy points or more. RBBC in the Penn State backfield for a rush offense that ranked 112th in Rush Play Success Rate and an offensive line that can’t block anyone up front. Penn State will also be without their starting left tackle. Hard pass.
Arkansas:
I wish this was a Week 1 matchup where we could’ve seen two dynamic receivers face off in Jahan Dotson and Treylon Burks. For obvious reasons, like being a multi-millionaire in a few months, Burks opted out of the game. Unlike Penn State, Arkansas doesn’t have many options to throw to in the passing game outside of their star receiver. The Razorbacks should be fine in numbers here, but there won’t be a target hog in this game like Burks was for much of the year, garnering over 35 percent of the team target share. Arkansas beat writers indicate it will likely be a by-committee approach trying to replace the production of Burks. Warren Thompson and De’Vion Warren are the safest options of the group to choose from here, and will start alongside Tyson Morris who did miss significant bowl practices due to illness. If I’m choosing “the next Treylon Burks” for Arkansas, Ketron Jackson Jr. would be my selection, and he did have 53 receiving yards in the season finale vs. Missouri. He’ll figure into the mix alongside another talented underclassmen in Bryce Stephens. Former receiver Trey Knox moved to into a hybrid-tight end role in the second half of the year, and his production jumped with 20 targets coming in the final six games.
Penn State was one of the better run defenses in the country in the first six weeks, but injuries took their toll and the group fell off late. Now, the Nittany Lions will be without their defensive coordinator, All-Big Ten safety, All-Big Ten defensive end, two starting linebackers and a starting defensive tackle. Arkansas appears to be healthy everywhere along the offensive line that ranked 41st in Line Yards and 46th in Rush Play Success Rate. Not great, but I’ll give the Razorbacks the edge in the trenches here with the Penn State opt outs. Unfortunately, I don’t think anyone is playable here in the Arkansas backfield with the way they distributed carries late in the year with Dominique Johnson, Trelon Smith, Raheim Sanders and AJ Green all seeing work. Nobody had more than eight carries in the finale vs. Missouri. Depending on salaries, maybe someone like Sanders is in play if he’s listed under $4k as the talented FR rushed for two touchdowns against Mizzou, and bowl games are the perfect time to get extended looks at the future. Johnson and Smith are definitely not the future. Not starting KJ Jefferson here as Penn State allowed just 13 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season, and without his best playmaker.
Oklahoma State vs. Notre Dame
Point-Spread: ND -1
O/U Total: 45
Weather: Dome
Oklahoma State:
As far as I can see right now, I think we’ll see the entirety of the Oklahoma State starting offense Saturday. In this day and age, that could change in an instant, but we’re proceeding here as if everyone is playing. Spencer Sanders definitely has the motivation for this matchup, coming off arguably the worst performance of his career in the Big 12 title game. Projection isn’t terrible at over 22 fantasy points, and helps that he’ll have both Tay Martin and Brennan Presley at his disposal, but faces a Notre Dame defense that allowed just 16.4 FPPG to opposing QB1s during the regular season and ranked 33rd in Pass Play Success Rate. Just think we look elsewhere on this slate for a QB with such a low game total. While the numbers were good against opposing quarterbacks, the Irish struggled some against wide receivers this season, in particular the slot receivers. Drake London posted the highest fantasy point total vs. the Irish (shocker), but then it was Josh Downs, Devin Maddox, Keytaon Thompson and Kendric Pryor – all of whom play in the slot. Add in that ND won’t have the services of star safety Kyle Hamilton, and I think this could bode well for Presley – could also get some leverage in GPPs where most are focused on Martin. That strategy hasn’t always panned out this season, but looking for an edge here. Martin has to be in play, regardless of pricing, targeted a combined 37 times over the last three games. I think you could play one or both receivers and not pair with Sanders in a lineup. Didn’t get a chance to see much of the Big 12 title game, but looks like Blaine Green and John Paul Richardson also saw some extended run in the slot, combining for 12 targets vs. Baylor. Talented FR Jaden Bray will start opposite Martin on the outside. ***UPDATE – Blaine Green has been ruled OUT.
All indications are that star running back Jaylen Warren is ready to go this week after missing the Baylor matchup with an ankle injury. His production and volume dipped a bit in the final month, but still averaged 18.2 attempts per game this season and likely won’t share carries with anyone other than Sanders in the backfield. Warren’s 1,134 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns are all the more impressive considering Oklahoma State’s offensive line was not very good at pushing the pile this year, ranking 110th in Line Yards, 97th in Stuff Rate and 83rd in Rush Play Success Rate. Meanwhile, the Irish gave up just 14.0 FPPG to opposing RB1s during the regular season, with the highest point total coming from Jashaun Corbin in the Week 1 disastrous performance from the Irish defense. Significantly improved as the season went along.
Notre Dame:
Despite not having critical pieces on both offense and defense, ND remains a 1-point favorite at most spots, so it’s clear how Vegas sharps view this game and who the better team of the two is. Offensively, the Irish will be without Kyren Williams in the backfield and a 20-game starting offensive linemen in Josh Lugg. Oklahoma State had a few players enter the transfer portal after the regular season, including a starting safety, but a group that ranked 3rd in the country in total defense remains mostly intact for this matchup. I think that means a total team fade here (I’d know more if salaries were actually posted). QB Jack Coan is not under consideration for me here, regardless of price, facing a secondary that allowed the second fewest fantasy points in the entire country. I suspect we will see plenty of Tyler Buchner on Saturday. Notre Dame’s offensive line improved over the course of the season, but the team still finished 96th in Line Yards, 114th in Stuff Rate and 85th in Rush Play Success Rate. Conversely, the Cowboys finished 5th in Defensive Rush Play Success Rate nationally and allowed just 15.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Sounds like we’ll see a mix of Chris Tyree and Logan Diggs splitting carries on Saturday with a sprinkle of Audric Estime providing the boom at 228 pounds. Considering defense and a likely committee, I’ll fade here too.
Just looking at the numbers, and its truly incredible how good the Oklahoma State defense was this year. Allowed the 5th fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing wide receivers and just 2.9 FPPG to opposing TE1s which was the 10th best mark in the country. Prices, whenever they are released, will determine my interest then in the likes of Michael Mayer, Kevin Austin and others. The sophomore tight end closed the year strong with a pair of touchdowns vs. Virginia and Georgia Tech, followed by a 10-target game against Stanford. Level of defenses there are not in the same stratosphere as OSU though. Austin also played well down the stretch with three touchdowns in the last five games, and a pair of 100-yard performances in the last three weeks. Braden Lenzy and Lorenzo Styles should round out the starters at receiver, but don’t have any preference/suggestions of whether they’re rosterable or not, if being completely honest.
Iowa vs. Kentucky
Point-Spread: UK -3
O/U Total: 44
Weather: 81 degrees / 0% rain / 11 mph winds
Iowa:
It’s New Year’s Eve – I have zero interest in spending any amount of time dissecting this atrocious Iowa offense. We don’t have a clue as to who the starting QB will be between Alex Padilla or Spencer Petras and doesn’t matter if we did. Unplayable. Kentucky did struggle some with opposing tight ends this season, allowing 7.4 FPPG so we could look to Sam LaPorta here. Led the Hawkeyes with 72 targets in 2021 – 15 of which came in the final two games alone. Underclassmen Keagan Johnson and Arland Bruce IV started to see their reps increase as the season went along, and combined for 10 targets vs. Michigan in the Big Ten Championship. Charlie Jones and Nico Ragaini will see rotational work at receiver. Tyler Goodson decided to forego the bowl game in preparation for the NFL Draft, meaning we’ll see a combination of Gavin Williams or senior Ivory Kelly-Martin in the backfield. Differing running styles between the two so I don’t suspect we’ll see a Goodson-like workload from either player. This is not a plug-and-play situation as Iowa’s offensive line has been a downgrade from previous seasons, ranking 128th in Stuff Rate and 129th in Line Yards. Fade against a strong Kentucky defense.
Kentucky:
Kentucky coverage, at least for the football team, is tough to come by unless you have access behind their paywall on Rivals. Looks like the only notable absences on offense should be wide receivers Josh Ali and Isaiah Epps who were involved in a car crash a few weeks back. Nothing serious, but neither will play, meaning we’re expected to see sophomore DeMarcus Harris and freshman Chauncey Magwood as the starters alongside Wan’Dale Robinson. Both underclassmen could be punt plays, but as has been the case much of the season, Robinson is the lone option in the Kentucky passing game garnering a whopping 40 percent of the team target share which I’d have to imagine is the highest in the country of any receiver. Justin Rigg looks to be the only other legitimate option in the passing game, unless there is some other underclassmen, I’m unaware of. Four touchdowns in the last four games for Rigg, but finished the year with just 20 targets. The Hawkeyes allowed 7.7 FPPG to opposing TE1s this season which was 109th in the country. Where Iowa did fare well was limiting opposing QBs this season, holding them to just 18.3 FPPG. Three of the top four points scorers at the position? Graham Mertz, Todd Centeio and Brandon Peters. Eeeeesh. Will Levis’ dual-threat ability as a runner and passer means he’s in play with every slate and closed the year on a high note with four passing touchdowns vs. New Mexico State, followed by four rushing touchdowns in the finale vs. Louisville. With Levis announcing he’s back in 2022, there is no threat to him sitting out. Depending on price, I’ll limit my exposure to RB1 Chris Rodriguez as Iowa allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing running backs. Guaranteed 15 or more carries, but my assumption is Iowa sets out to stop the run and force anyone outside of UK’s Big 3 to beat them. Kentucky’s offensive line ranked 3rd in Line Yards and 5th in Rush Play Success Rate so the Wildcats should be able to create holes for the Kentucky RBs.
Utah vs. Ohio State
Point-Spread: OSU -4
O/U Total: 64
Weather: 57 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Utah:
Projections suggest the only option for us in this matchup would be RB1 Tavion Thomas who has a great chance to spotlight himself for NFL evaluators on such a big stage vs. this kind of opponent. Michigan and Oregon provided the blueprint for opponents facing the Buckeyes – run the ball down their throws and keep the OSU passing game off the field. Thomas is the type of RB, similar to a Hassan Haskins or CJ Verdell, that can wear down the Buckeyes defense, and the Utes have the offensive line capable of pushing OSU around. Remember the Pac-12 Championship game? Utah will mix in both Micah Bernard and TJ Pledger who offer differing running styles and are far better pass-catchers, but I’d suspect 20+ carries if this game remains competitive.
Figuring Ohio State knows that feeding Thomas is the game-plan, QB Cam Rising would be a strong pivot away from the RB1 but I would have no reservations of playing both in the lineup with Rising’s dual-threat ability. Wouldn’t call him a game manager but Rising was proficient since taking over as the starter, averaging 175 yards per game through the air with 18 touchdowns and just five interceptions. Line had crept down to Ohio State -4 last I checked, much of which due to the opt-outs, so game script could potentially favor the Utah QB if the run game stalls at all. Fair to say you can play Rising naked too as the Utes spread it around with no pass-catcher accounting for more than 20 percent of the target share. Don’t see any opt-outs so Rising should have the full arsenal at his disposal. Britain Covey leads the team in targets in his 20th year of college. Brant Kuithe and Dalton Kincaid split targets relatively evenly at the tight end position. OSU allowed 5.7 FPPG to opposing TE1s this season. Solomon Enis and Devaughn Vele will start outside, with former Oklahoma transfer Theo Howard getting rotational reps. Heavy lean to Covey if choosing a Utah receiver as slot guys have given the Buckeyes some trouble – Josh Johnson, Jackson Anthrop and Samori Toure had three of the four top fantasy outputs vs. the Buckeyes.
Ohio State:
Over / under 20+ targets for Jaxson Smith-Njigba vs. the Utes? Not that Ohio State doesn’t have talented waiting in the wings now that Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson have opted out, but JSN will be the clear-cut WR1 and safety valve for CJ Stroud as he’s been all year long. I would suggest JSN being the player you have the highest amount of exposure to with your lineups. Sounds like the outside spots will be filled by a combination of former 5-star prospects Julian Fleming, Emeka Egbuka and Marvin Harrison Jr. Feels like a situation where this could go any number of ways, but Fleming gets the decided edge here in terms of experience, having started the Big Ten title game a year ago and was targeted seven times vs. Northwestern. Jeremy Ruckert is off to the NFL after this season, but confirmed he will participate and could be a strong pivot while everyone is focused on which receiver to roster. Four different tight ends scored 12 fantasy points or more vs. the Utes this season. Stroud is always a potential option, but Utah is strongest on the backend, ranking 22nd in Pass Play Success Rate. Did allow 23.5 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season and three different quarterbacks to top 30+ fantasy points. Losing Olave/Wilson hurts Stroud, but far less than other teams around college football when you can replace them with 5-stars. Utah ranked No. 1 in the Pac-12 in rush defense, and really turned it on late in the year, holding its last five opponents to under four yards a carry. Allowed just 12.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s. We know TreVeyon Henderson is a different kind of animal than Utah is used to facing out West so it really comes down to pricing for the Ohio State FR for me.
Baylor vs. Mississippi
Point-Spread: Ole Miss -1.5
O/U Total: 57
Weather: Dome
Baylor:
Sometimes the best plays are just obvious, and I think that fits the bill here with RB1 Abram Smith against an Ole Miss defense that ranked 101st in rush defense overall and 122nd in Rush Play Success Rate. That spells trouble for the Rebels facing this Baylor offensive line that was 21st in Line Yards. It’s a group that did fall off in the second half of the season, but still a unit that should win the LOS in this matchup. Pricing will dictate how much interest we have in backup Trestan Ebner who averaged around 12 att/g as the RB2. His usage increased dramatically in the last month with 18 of his 28 receptions coming in the last four games. Both Baylor backs are in play as Ole Miss allowed 27.6 FPPG to opposing running backs. Starting QB Gerry Bohanon will be available and start per the Dallas Morning News after dealing with a late-season hamstring injury. That makes me nervous as an injury that could flare back up at any moment, and I believe there is a good chance we see backup Blake Shapen in this game regardless. I’ll fade the QBs. Same four options for Baylor in the passing game that we’ve seen all season with WR1 Tyquan Thornton, RJ Sneed, Drew Estrada and tight end Ben Sims. Pricing will dictate which direction we go here, but Estrada did have a nice close to the year, targeted 18 times in the last three games. Looking at the receivers that gave Ole Miss the most fits this season – size and speed. Highest three outputs were Trelon Burks, Cedric Tillman and Chris Pierce who definitely fit the prototype. Sets up well for the 6-foot-3 Thornton? Ole Miss allowed just two tight ends to score 10+ fantasy points against them this season. Sims found the end-zone in each of the last two games and averaged just over three targets per game.
Ole Miss:
Vegas number at the source I use has jumped the o/u total from 55.5 to 57. Reason why? Everything being stated as of now is that the entirety of the Ole Miss offense will play on Saturday evening, including their offensive play-caller in Jeff Lebby who will stick around one more game before heading to Oklahoma. Our Matt Corral projection surprised me to the point I actually had to call Joe to check to see if it was correct or not. Then you look at the game logs and Corral has topped 25 fantasy points just once in the last six games. Of the two phases on the Baylor defense, the secondary is more susceptible, ranking 56th in Pass Play Success Rate, 103rd in Pass Play Explosiveness and allowed over 21 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. The upside for Corral is that he’s expected to have his full complement of playmakers, meaning we get Dontario Drummond, Jonathan Mingo and Braylon Sanders all out there. With that being the case, I love Drummond at his pricing of $6,800 at his most successful position in the slot where he thrived at the beginning of the year with back-to-back 30+ point performances. We saw exactly that in the season finale against Mississippi State where Drummond was the far and away leader with 13 receptions on 14 targets. Don’t ask me to predict how the Ole Miss running game shakes out as we’ve seen both Snoop Conner and Jerrion Ealy break slates at given points this season. The best news here is that it appears Henry Parrish has fallen back a bit on the pecking order, meaning we have just two choices here compared to three. Baylor allowed 17 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, but did finished second in the Big 12 in run defense. This was a dominant front at the end of the season, allowing just 83 yards per game on the ground to its last eight opponents.
HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!