Tulane at Ole Miss
- Point-Spread: Miss -17.5
- O/U Total: 57.5
- Implied Score: Miss 37.5 – Tul 20
- Weather: 63 degrees / 2% rain / 11 mph winds
Tulane:
Top Play(s) – QB Jake Retzlaff ($7,500) QB is unappealing outside of Trinidad Chambliss, so there’s a path to Retzlaff being the second most valuable option at the position. Ole Miss has struggled some this season defending running QBs, perfectly shown in the Egg Bowl by allowing 173 yards on 20 attempts to Mississippi State’s Kamario Taylor. The flipside is that this was the one instance all year against Ole Miss that Retzlaff failed to score more than 18 fantasy points in a game, held to just 7.3. For the year, the Rebels gave up just over 20 FPPG to quarterbacks, second most among the teams on the slate behind Tulane.
Fade – RBs. If desperate to choose a Tulane running back for your lineup – you shouldn’t be – Jamauri McClure would be the better of the two options between he and Javin Gordon after closing the year with over 400+ yards on the ground over the last four games. Ole Miss can be run on, ranked 94th in success rate and 123rd in explosive run plays allowed, but there’s several options to choose from at RB in the other matchups that are more appealing.
Best of the Rest – WRs. There may not be a team in the country that spreads the ball around more than Tulane, with no wideout having more than 16% of the team’s target share and five different receivers having between 23-39 receptions on the year. Playing Retzlaff naked is typically the optimal route. In the first matchup vs. Ole Miss, and then two weeks ago in the conference title matchup vs. North Texas, no Tulane receiver had more than 40 yards receiving. If forced to choose one, we’d lean towards WR Anthony Brown-Stephens ($4,800) or go cheap with WR Zycarl Lewis Jr ($3,300). ABS had a spike week recently in the finale vs. Charlotte with 98 yards on 11 targets. Lewis gets a bump with Bryce Bohanon out of the lineup as he’s been the last three games.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – WR Bryce Bohanon (doubtful)
Ole Miss:
Top Play(s) – RB Kewan Lacy ($7,800) and / or QB Trinidad Chambliss ($8,200) Pretty straightforward here – eat chalk and find a way to differentiate elsewhere. The duo combined for 61 fantasy points in the first meeting, and 26 of the team’s 32 rushing touchdowns on the season. If forced to choose one over the other, Chambliss is the play given the lack of competent fantasy options at QB on the slate, but stacking the duo is preferred.
Best of the Rest – WRs / TEs. Ole Miss and Tulane are essentially the same offenses in that they prefer to run the football, have dual-threat quarterbacks and do NOT have a target hog at the receiver or tight end position. No Rebel pass-catcher has more than 20% of the team’s total target share on the season. In the first matchup, no Rebel was targeted more than five times in the game. WR Harrison Wallace ($5,200) is the preferred option of the group, as he’s led Ole Miss in targets in every game since Week 8.
WR Deuce Alexander ($3,300) will be a popular play given his salary and the fact he was the top option in the first meeting, finishing with 91 yards and a touchdown on five targets. Tulane allowed over 41 FPPG to opposing team WRs during the regular season, so stacking multiple wideouts in a lineup is viable despite not having a clear WR1. There is no preference between boundary and slot receivers facing Tulane, as both positions had relatively equal success.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – n/a
James Madison at Oregon
- Point-Spread: Ore -20.5
- O/U Total: 47.5
- Implied Score: Ore 34 – JMU 13.5
- Weather: 47 degrees / 32% rain / 3 mph winds
James Madison:
Top Play(s) – A WR. Not usually the direction we go when it comes to JMU as they don’t have a player on the roster with more than 50 targets on the season. But near three touchdown underdogs and lowest implied team total on the slate means our interest in the QB and RB for the Dukes is minimal at best, so we’d favor a WR for JMU considering the likely game script. WR Braedon Wisloski ($4,000) is the preferred choice of the bunch, having scored a touchdown in each of the last three games. WR Nick DeGennaro ($3,400) is an interesting by-low candidate, leading the team in routes run and team-high 16.6-yard aDOT. Oregon is solid against the pass, but rank 90th in explosive pass plays allowed. Max one JMU wideout per lineup.
Fade – QB Alonza Barnett ($6,900) Undoubtedly the game you want the least amount of exposure to, which automatically eliminates the QB from the pool for me. Oregon allowed just nine fantasy points per game to quarterbacks during the regular season. And while Barnett wasn’t fully healthy in the game vs. Louisville earlier in the year (his one P4 matchup), he was a non-factor for DFS, scoring just 4.8 fantasy points. That’s our best example of how this could play out for Barnett against a P4 opponent.
Best of the Rest – RB Wayne Knight ($6,100) JMU has no shot going blow for blow with Oregon in an offensive shootout, so this game likely turns into a slog, meaning likely usage for Knight if the Dukes can keep the score respectable for most of the game. Even in a passing game script, Knight isn’t excluded from hitting value as he’s tied for the team lead in targets (48) and leads all JMU players with 37 receptions. 20+ total touches is not out of the realm of possibilities here.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – n/a
Oregon:
Top Play(s) – An Oregon RB. It is tough to write up Oregon the day before the game with three key starting WRs expected to be game-time decisions. In our eyes, they’re unlikely to play as three-touchdown favorites in a situation where the Ducks might want to keep things under wraps for its next opponent should they win on Saturday. Despite having the No. 2 run defense in the entire country, JMU has not faced an offense or OL quite like Oregon that is 16th in run blocking per PFF, 6th in offensive success rate, 17th in line yards and 3rd in rush success rate. JMU is prone to allowing explosives on the ground as well, ranked 95th in that area. My lineup builds will have one Oregon running back per, whether that is RB Noah Whittington ($7,000), RB Jordon Davison ($6,400) or RB Dierre Hill Jr. ($4,500).
Bargain Bin – WR Malik Benson ($4,700) or WR Jeremiah McClellan ($4,300) Oregon has run a ton of 12 personnel in their last few games due to the surplus of injuries at the WR position. Assuming all three questionable WRs are out, that would mean you’ll see a bunch of Benson and McClellan who combined for nearly 200 yards in the season finale vs. Washington. No other Oregon WR was targeted against the Huskies either, as the team barely rotated in any of the backups. We’d favor Benson slightly here, with JMU ranked 130th in explosive pass plays allowed this season. Benson’s 2.49 yards per route run and 14.2 aDOT are both higher than McClellan.
Pivot Play – TE Kenyon Sadiq ($6,200) Usage has gone up for Sadiq down the stretch of the regular season with 18 receptions on 23 targets over the last three games. The star tight end posted just 11 yards against Washington in the finale but was limited in the second half due to an injury suffered on the last drive in the second quarter. Oregon has typically leaned on its best offensive weapon in Sadiq in its most high-profile matchups this season. 14.1 fantasy points is a very strong projection for any college fantasy tight end.
Best of the Rest – QB Dante Moore ($7,700) JMU only allowed 15 FPPG to quarterbacks during the regular season, and game script is not in Moore’s favor with the Vegas line being what it is. James Madison is No. 3 in PPF coverage grades, so this secondary is elite. Most of our lineups will be comprised with Chambliss and Marcel Reed at the QB and SuperFlex spots.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – WR Dakorien Moore (questionable), WR Gary Bryant Jr. (questionable), WR Evan Stewart (questionable), WR Justius Lowe (portal)
Miami at Texas A&M
- Point-Spread: A&M -3.5
- O/U Total: 48.5
- Implied Score: A&M 26 – Mia 22.5
- Weather: 67 degrees / 1% rain / 15 mph winds
Miami:
Top Play(s) – WR Malachi Toney ($6,900) Stating the obvious here, especially how Toney closed the year with 25 receptions in the final two games combined. The multi-faceted freshman gets a value boost because of his potential usage as both a runner and passer, throwing a pass in each of the last four games. While he’ll be at the top of the A&M scouting report, it’s tough to imagine constructing lineups without one of the best fantasy WRs in college football.
Fade – RB CharMar Brown ($4,400) More on the other Miami running backs later on, but this is not the matchup for a plodding runner like Brown against an A&M defense that is 10th in the country in rush D success rate. Brown’s seen a decreased role with the emergence of Girard Pringle Jr and is only averaging 3.8 YPC on the season.
Bargain Bin – TE Elija Lofton ($3,300) The last three games were what we expected out of Lofton the entire season with a receiving touchdown in each contest. Tight ends averaged around 8 FPPG against the Aggies this season and gave up over 93 yards in the season finale to Texas’ Jack Endries.
Pivot Play – WR CJ Daniels ($5,000) Daniels played around his normal allotment of snaps in the finale after returning from injury for the first time since Week 9 and did catch a 40-yard touchdown. Won’t stack the Miami WRs but would have Daniels in lineups that don’t include Toney when trying to fade the field. A&M is 92nd in the country in explosive pass plays allowed which bodes well for both Daniels and Toney.
Best of the Rest – RB Girard Pringle Jr. ($5,500) or RB Mark Fletcher ($5,000) Higher projection for Fletcher, but I’d personally side with Pringle in this matchup with his explosive nature, averaging over six yards per carry. The freshman was outstanding in the second half of the year, averaging 75 yards per game on the ground in the last four weeks. A&M being third in the country in tackles for loss gives some concern with the Miami running game, but that over-aggressiveness can lead to chunk plays on the ground. A&M is 135th in explosive run plays allowed this season. The Aggies allowed just 15 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, so minimal interest in QB Carson Beck ($7,200) who may end up with negative rushing yards against an A&M defense that is No. 1 in the country in sacks.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – n/a
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – WR Mario Craver ($5,400) or WR KC Concepcion ($6,000) Sticking what worked for us most of this year with having one of the top two A&M receivers in each lineup. Craver and Concepcion combine for 49% of the team’s receptions and 13 of 26 receiving touchdowns. Concepcion is the preferred choice of the two, as he scored 15+ fantasy points in 10 of 12 games this season, and expect a rushing attempt or two from the Aggies top playmaker.
Fade – RB Le’Veon Moss ($5,200)) Latest reports as of Friday night have Le’Veon Moss “progressing” in attempts to play, with insider information on On3 suggesting that he will be suited up and play vs. Miami. To what extent is unknown, but this is not the matchup to take that risk with the Canes ranked 7th in the country in yards allowed on the ground and gave up just 16 FPPG to opposing backfields during the regular season.
Bargain Bin – WR Ashton Bethel-Roman ($4,100) Craver and Concepcion get the headlines, and rightfully so, but ABR is ranked second on the team in routes run and has five receiving touchdowns in his last six games played. A&M does not rotate much at all at wide receiver.
Best of the Rest – QB Marcel Reed ($7,900) Second-best QB option on the slate, but also not a “must” against a Miami defense that was 14th in pass success rate, allowed the fewest passing TDs in the ACC and gave up just 15 FPPG to quarterbacks.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – RB Le’Veon Moss (questionable)
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- QB Trinidad Chambliss and / or RB Kewan Lacy, Ole Miss
- An Oregon RB
- WR Malachi Toney, Miami
- QB Marcel Reed, Texas A&M
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- QB Trinidad Chambliss and / or RB Kewan Lacy, Ole Miss
- An Oregon RB
- WR Malachi Toney, Miami
- QB Marcel Reed, Texas A&M
