Mississippi vs. Penn State
Point-Spread: PSU -4.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: PSU 27 – Miss 22.5
Weather: Dome
Mississippi:
Top Play(s) – WR Tre Harris ($6,900) Penn State will be without its best cover corner in the secondary in Kalen King, which bodes well for a healthy Tre Harris on a slate where receiver options are few and far in between. Team leader in targets (74) with 35% of the team’s receiving touchdowns. Bigger boundary receivers gave the Penn State secondary the most fits this season with Marvin Harrison Jr., Devin Carter, and Donaven McCulley three of the highest scoring fantasy producers to face the Nittany Lions. Harris fits a similar size profile.
Fade – WR Zakhari Franklin ($6,700) DK continues to price Franklin as if he still plays for UTSA. On the depth chart but likely to leave Ole Miss after the season and enter the portal as he’s only played in three games.
Bargain Bin – TE Caden Prieskorn ($4,800) Cheapest realistic Ole Miss option. The former Memphis transfer closed the year with two of his best performances of the season with a combined 10 receptions on 11 targets with touchdowns against both ULM and Mississippi State. Penn State allowed just 5.3 FPPG to opposing TE1s.
Pivot Play – Fading RB Quinshon Judkins ($7,500) Feels sacrilegious to say fade a two-time 1,000-yard rusher like Quinshon, but this is a bad matchup against a Penn State defense that finished No. 1 nationally in rush D success rate and allowed the fewest fantasy points in the country to running backs. Judkins was also asked about his future by reporters this week, and was seemingly non-committal with his answer, saying he’s just focused on the bowl game. Is there something we don’t know about?
Best of the Rest – WRs. Team target share reflects what we stated about avoiding youth/backups on the depth chart. Top three of Harris, Dayton Wade and Jordan Watkins combined for 60% of the target share and 15 of the 23 receiving touchdowns. Would limit to just one Ole Miss wideout in a lineup as Penn State allowed the sixth fewest fantasy points to wide receivers in the country. RB Ulysses Bentley ($4,900) only becomes an option if we see/read any funny business with Judkins in pregame. QB Jaxson Dart ($9,000) is the second option among QBs on the slate behind Carson Beck for me. Penn State allowed the third fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs in the country, but Dart has his full compliment of weapons at WR and plenty of mobility.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – TE Michael Trigg (transfer), WR JJ Henry (transfer), WR Bralon Brown (transfer)
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – RB Kaytron Allen ($6,000) or RB Nick Singleton ($6,400) If there is a weakness on the Ole Miss defense, it would be the front seven – hence why the Rebel donors threw the bag at Texas A&M defensive tackle transfer Walter Nolen. Ole Miss allowed 16 FPPG to opposing RB1s and 84th in EPA per run play defensively. The problem is guessing which Penn State RB will be the preferred choice that day…and yes, it is a guessing game. Singleton has the higher projection, but Vegas odds have a higher prop line for Allen, who has also out-carried Singleton over the last six games. Don’t stack the two together.
Fade – WR Dante Cephas ($4,600) Most recent Penn State practice report on Wednesday had both Cephas and fellow transfer Malik McClain working with the third-team offense. I’m betting unders on any player props out there and insta-fades in DFS.
Bargain Bin – WR Kaden Saunders ($3,400) The 4-star freshman was running with the first-team offense in the last bowl practice available to observers. TE Tyler Warren ($4,200) is the preferred choice at tight end over TE Theo Johnson ($4,400) with a few articles out on the web with quotes from Johnson discussing how he’s excited to see how the younger tight ends on the roster will perform in this bowl game. Sounds like a potential soft-out to me. Johnson heads to the NFL after this game while Warren is returning in 2024.
Pivot Play – WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith ($6,000) When Penn State drops back to pass, we know where the ball is going – either in the direction or KLS or one of the tight ends. 24% of the team’s total target share and that number rises to 43% if just accounting for Penn State receivers.
Best of the Rest – QB Drew Allar ($8,100) We’ll get to see if Mike Yurcich was the real issue with the Penn State offense or is it an overrated 5-star quarterback. Allar has looked sharp apparently in bowl practices, and we’ve seen that mobile quarterbacks like Allar have succeeded so far in games this bowl szn. Ole Miss defenders compared Allar to KJ Jefferson. The Rebels allowed just 18.7 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season and were 25th in EPA per pass play defensively. Ole Miss’ secondary remains intact and did not lose any to opt-outs or the portal.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – WR Harrison Wallace ($4,700) Wallace has dealt with injury for much of 2023 but was practicing with the first-team offense on Wednesday. Per the Penn State 247Sports site, Wallace’s “status for Saturday’s game appears uncertain” still.
Auburn vs. Maryland
Point-Spread: Aub -6.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: Aub 27 – MD 20.5
Weather: 46 degrees / 7% rain / 9 mph winds
Auburn:
Top Play(s) – RB Jarquez Hunter ($5,700) Auburn is down multiple wide receivers who decided to portal and have a potentially under the weather QB who hasn’t practiced much. Maryland’s perceived weakness is also its run defense that is 79th in rush D success rate and allowed 15 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Sounds like a game for Auburn to keep the ball on the ground and run it 40+ times. Hunter is very reasonably priced for a running back that rushed for 865 yards and seven touchdowns during the regular season.
Fade – WRs. There is a chance Payton Thorne doesn’t attempt more than 20 passes in this game as Auburn is 8th nationally in rush play percentage. Listed starters are Caleb Burton and Camden Brown, with Jay Fair and Shane Hooks as the primary backups. Very little exposure to any of that group.
Bargain Bin – TE Rivaldo Fairweather ($4,300) Essentially the only known commodity for Auburn in the passing game headed into this matchup, finishing first on the team in targets (45), receptions (33) and touchdowns (6). The former FIU transfer has also already announced he’s coming back in 2024. Maryland allowed just 6.7 FPPG to opposing TE1s, but four B1G tight ends scored 10 or more fantasy points against the Terps.
Pivot Play – RB Damari Alston ($4,700) Alston was hurt by injury in his first season of extended action, missing the entire month of October. Got his legs under him in Week 9 in his return and closed the year with a pair of strong performances with 64 yards on 12 attempts vs. Auburn and 85 yards and a scored against Bama. One beat writer for the Tigers in his game predictions had both Hunter and Alston topping 100 yards in this matchup. While I’d be hesitant to pair the two together, Alston is a viable pivot off Hunter.
Best of the Rest – QB Payton Thorne ($6,800) We’ll typically fade Payton Thorne regardless of the circumstances. But it came out this week that the flu is currently going around the Auburn program and that Thorne has only practiced one day this week. Maryland is down two contributors at cornerback who decided to portal, but Thorne isn’t good enough to take advantage. Maryland allowed just 16 FPPG to opposing QB1s and were 19th in EPA per pass play defensively.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – WR Malcolm Johnson Jr. (transfer), WR Jyaire Shorter (transfer), WR Omari Kelly (transfer), WR Ja’Varrius Johnson (transfer), TE Tyler Fromm (transfer), QB Robby Ashford (transfer)
Maryland:
Top Play(s) – QB Billy Edwards Jr. ($7,700) This Maryland staff went out and got MJ Morris from NC State in the transfer portal to be next year’s QB1, but I expect a battle with Edwards in the offseason as he’s not short on talent either. In a start last year against Northwestern, Edwards completed 64% of his passes for 166 yards and a touchdown while also adding 66 yards on the ground. Did not see any extended action this year outside of the Michigan game where Maryland hit the goal-line three times and brought in Edwards for their version of the Tush Push. Should be noted for today that Edwards will get the carries inside the 5. The big concern is that there is multiple mentions made of Maryland using multiple QBs. Whether that actually comes to fruition is unknown.
Fade – n/a. Maryland players are priced appropriately.
Bargain Bin – TE Preston Howard ($3,800) Howard is expected to be TE1 on Saturday and in 2024 as the staff is very high on his potential from everything you read, flashing NFL size and athleticism at 6-foot-5, 240 pounds. He steps into the starting role with Corey Dyches in the portal on a team in Maryland that has had a tight end catch more than 30 passes in a season in each of the last three years. Mike Locksley may not be a very good head coach, but he can scout tight ends.
Pivot Play – RB Roman Hemby ($5,800) Leaning towards betting unders on Roman Hemby yardage props, but I want his overs at 11.5 rushing attempts. Why? Maryland will throw less without Baby Tua, and the RB2 and RB4 are in the transfer portal. Auburn allowed just 12.5 FPPG to RB1s this season but the Tigers were very poor defending the run in the last two games, allowing 400 combined yards to Alabama and New Mexico State. Hemby also finished 5th on the team with 37 receptions on 44 targets.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Starters are expected to play for the Terps at receiver outside of Tyrese Chambers. No real distinction between the top three of Tai Felton, Jeshaun Jones and Kaden Prather who combined for 15 of the 25 receiving touchdowns and were separated by just 13 targets. Felton led the team in most receiving categories, so he gets the ever so slight nod of the group. That said, it sounds like Maryland will be getting several younger options involved here that will make this situation a bit messy. Octavian Smith, Shaleak Knotts and Braeden Wisloski are all expected to see playing time. No Maryland receiver had more than 18% target share on the season. Playing Billy Edwards solo without pairing with a Terp wideout is a viable strategy.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – QB Taulia Tagovailoa (opt-out), TE Corey Dyches (transfer), TE Rico Walker (transfer), RB Ramon Brown (transfer), RB Antwain Littleton (transfer), WR Tyrese Chambers (opt-out)
Georgia vs. Florida State
Point-Spread: UGA -20.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: UGA 32 – FSU 11.5
Weather: 66 degrees / 1% rain / 9 mph winds
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – QB Carson Beck ($8,700) Beck doesn’t project all that well, but for my money, is the best QB option on the slate in a game which Georgia will win by 30+. In games this season where Georgia won by 20 or more points, Beck hit at least 20 fantasy points in each contest. Florida State doesn’t have anyone left on the defensive side with a surplus of opt-outs, and Beck should have his full complement of pass-catchers at his disposal outside of star tight end Brock Bowers.
Fade – n/a. All regular contributors, and potentially backups, are in play in the impending blowout.
Bargain Bin – TE Oscar Delp ($3,400) All but certain that Brock Bowers will not play on Saturday as he’s not been partaking in bowl practices. Delp played well in relief of Bowers while out with an injured ankle, with 30 or more receiving yards against Vanderbilt, Florida and Missouri. Florida State did allow the third fewest fantasy points in the country to tight ends, fwiw.
Pivot Play – RB Daijun Edwards ($7,200) Simple rationale here is lower ownership with RB Kendall Milton ($6,600) having the cheaper salary and out-touching Edwards in each of the last four games, re-assuming the RB1 role now that he’s finally healthy. Edwards does hold a 21-4 advantage in terms of targets and the touch disparity isn’t drastic so there is a clear path to him outperforming Milton in fantasy points. At full strength, Florida State’s rush defense was spotty, and they’re far from at full strength roster-wise. The Seminoles were 57th in EPA per run play defensively and gave up 23 FPPG to opposing running backs.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Everybody’s in here and the WR1 accounted for just 16% target share, so don’t go heavy exposure on any one player as UGA will spread the ball around. Ladd McConkey confirmed he’s playing in what will be his final collegiate game, so we have that narrative. Dominic Lovett leads all wide receivers in targets (66) and routes run, with little competition in the slot. His numbers were significantly better with Brock Bowers out of the lineup. Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint led all UGA receivers in snaps played vs. Alabama in the SEC title game. Those are the preferred options, but Dillon Bell, Arian Smith and Rara Thomas will rotate in as well.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – TE Brock Bowers (NFL), WR Mekhi Mews (transfer)
Florida State:
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – Everyone. Increase that slider on your favorite sportsbook to whatever line you feel comfortable at in favor of the Bulldogs and reap the rewards. UGA is winning by 100.
Toledo vs. Wyoming
Point-Spread: Wyo -3.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: Wyo 24 – Tol 20.5
Weather: 72 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Toledo:
Top Play(s) – RB Jacquez Stuart ($5,600) Peny Boone hit the transfer portal this week and is not listed on the bowl game depth chart, so safe to assume he’s out for Saturday. While not the same size as Boone at just 178 pounds, Stuart is an explosive back that carried the ball 100+ times, averaging nearly five yards a carry and is the team’s primary return specialist. Wouldn’t expect a Peny Boone-like workload at his size, but Toledo is a run-first team. If you want to fade, Wyoming allowed just 11.6 FPPG to RB1s and were 32nd in EPA per run play defensively. RB Willie Shaw ($3,100) will be the RB2 and is a bigger back at 205 pounds.
Fade – WR Devin Maddox ($3,300) Not a fan of any Toledo receivers beyond the top two, but Maddox played just four offensive snaps in the MAC title game vs. Miami (Ohio). Listed as a backup on the depth chart. Sharp decline for a player that had 83 catches combined over the previous two years.
Bargain Bin – TE Anthony Torres ($4,000) Torres was a difference maker over the final month and a half of the regular season with 49 or more receiving yards in four of the last six games with three touchdowns. Third on the team in targets and receptions. Wyoming allowed just 4.9 FPPG to opposing TE1s.
Pivot Play – QB Tucker Gleason ($5,800) Remember this factoid back to the CFF Preseason Guide – Toledo’s QB2 has thrown for at least 800 yards in each of the last five years! Didn’t come to fruition in 2023 as Dequan Finn stayed healthy for the entirety of the season, but it did last year, leading to plenty of starting experience for Gleason. Even in spot duty this season, Gleason completed 67% of his passes with four touchdowns and zero INTs. At this price, without Toledo’s best RB, I’m mixing Gleason into multiple lineups. Wyoming allowed just 17 FPPG to QB1s but were 94th in pass D success rate AND Gleason is plenty mobile.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Top heavy target share between receivers Jerjuan Newton and Junior Vandeross III at 41% and combined for 50% of the team’s receiving touchdowns. Stacking both together is not optimal, but a longshot GPP play as Toledo is an underdog. Against Miami (Ohio) in a comeback attempt, the duo combined for 10 receptions on 17 targets. Larry Stephens functions as the WR3, but averages just 2.7 targets per game.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – QB Dequan Finn (transfer), RB Peny Boone (transfer)
Wyoming:
Top Play(s) – RB Harrison Waylee ($7,700) Volume has been down for Waylee since returning from injury, surpassing 20+ carries just once since Week 6. But we’re always going to list a Wyoming RB as the Cowboys top play, particularly against a Toledo defense where the secondary is the strength. Not so much when defending the run, allowing 17 FPPG to RB1s and 70th in rush D success rate. Waylee is very familiar with Toledo having played in the MAC at Northern Illinois. In 2020, Waylee rushed for 114 yards and a TD on 19 attempts. Last season, he accumulated just 27 yards on 13 attempts, but had 10 (!) receptions for 96 yards.
Fade – WR3. The last time a Wyoming receiver not named Ayir Asante or Wyatt Wieland was targeted more than twice in a game was back in Week 11. Wyoming simply doesn’t throw the football enough, ranked 111th in pass play percentage.
Bargain Bin – TE John Michael Gyllenborg ($3,300) The Wyoming beat writer called JMG a “potential star” …at least for Mountain West standards. The 6-foot-5 sophomore tight end had a monster performance in Week 12 vs. Hawaii with 128 yards on just three catches. That was 1/3 of his receiving yards for the entire season in just one game, so wouldn’t go heavy on exposure, but perhaps a GPP play.
Pivot Play – QB Andrew Peasley ($7,800) Running quarterbacks have had a great deal of success in bowl season, and Peasley fits the bill as the team’s second leading rusher with 542 yards and six touchdowns. Was at his best late in the year with 60+ fantasy points in the last two games – albeit against Hawaii and Nevada. I don’t envision Peasley having much success throwing the ball against a Toledo secondary that ranked 8th in pass D success rate and haven’t announced any opt-outs defensively.
Best of the Rest – WR Wyatt Wieland ($5,000) or WR Ayir Asante ($3,500) The starting duo combined for 11 of the team’s 20 receiving touchdowns and 37% of the target share. Don’t understand the pricing discrepancy, though, as Asante has just 16 fewer targets and one more receiving touchdown. Asante is the preferred choice here by a mile.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – n/a
