Oregon vs. Texas Tech
- Point-Spread: Ore -2.5
- O/U Total: 51.5
- Implied Score: Ore 27 – TT 24.5
- Weather: 64 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Oregon:
Top Play(s) – TE Kenyon Sadiq ($5,900) The one “weakness” of the Texas Tech defense all season has been coverage of tight ends, as the Red Raiders allowed 13.4 FPPG to the position. And will now take on the most talented and physically gifted tight end prospect in the country in Sadiq. There were three instances where a tight end was the leading receiver against Texas Tech this season, and a fourth matchup against Kansas where TE Boden Groen caught 13 passes against the Red Raiders. If you want to bargain bin shop, but still have exposure to Oregon tight ends, TE Jamari Johnson ($3,900) has caught at least three passes in four of his last five games and scored a touchdown in the playoff vs. James Madison.
Fade – RB Jordon Davison ($6,200) We know to avoid RBs against Texas Tech this season, as the Red Raiders finished the season No. 1 in the country in yards allowed on the ground. Davison was not listed on the injury report this week, but we know we left the game against James Madison with a leg injury and was helped off the field. If he’s less than 100% in what has been a RBBC most of the year for Oregon…against the best run D in the country…that is a strong reason to fade.
Pivot Play – RB Noah Whittington ($6,500) Oregon played in six games this season that were within 15 or fewer points. Whittington had double-digit rushing attempts in four of those six matchups. While we fade running backs against Texas Tech, and mostly advise doing so again here, 15+ touches is a possibility for Whittington as Oregon seems to trust its senior running back in its biggest matchups. If there’s a team that can run on Tech, it would be the Ducks who rank 3rd in rush success rate, 2nd in standard down success rate and 17th in line yards.
Best of the Rest – QB Dante Moore ($7,700) Moore would be my QB3-4 on this slate, as Tech is equally as good against the pass as the run. The Red Raiders only allowed 14 FPPG to quarterbacks during the regular season with just a single QB scoring more than 20 fantasy points – Kansas State’s Avery Johnson who rushed for 88 yards and two touchdowns. Moore doesn’t have that rushing upside.
No Oregon wide receiver had more than 15% target share in 2025, and we’re expecting a healthier WR Dakorien Moore ($5,100) and WR Gary Bryant Jr. ($3,200) with multiple weeks off as both barely played vs. JMU. Would limit lineups to one Oregon WR between Moore, Bryant, WR Jeremiah McClellan ($4,100) or WR Malik Benson ($5,200).
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – WR Evan Stewart (out)
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Cameron Dickey ($6,800) If there’s an area where the Oregon defense can be leaky, it is against the run, just as we saw vs. JMU where Wayne Knight rushed for 100+ yards. The Ducks are 31st in EPA per rush and 42nd in rush D success rate – both solid – but 109th in stuff rate so Oregon is rarely stopping RBs at or behind the line of scrimmage. Dickey has now scored a rushing touchdown in 10 of 13 games. FWIW, in the Texas Tech game preview, three of four writers predicted Dickey as the team’s offensive MVP for this matchup.
Fade – QB Behren Morton ($7,200) Dead last on the QB pecking order for me on the slate. Oregon allowed just 9 FPPG to quarterbacks in the regular season. Morton will not run with the threat of injury. And the Texas Tech offense is balanced, unlike Ty Simpson with Alabama who will be forced to throw.
Best of the Rest – Pass-Catchers. CFB DFS players this season know the drill with Texas Tech. No player has more than 21% of the team’s target share, while the top four pass-catchers between WR Caleb Douglas ($6,000), WR Reggie Virgil ($5,400), WR Coy Eakin ($4,500) and TE Terrance Carter Jr. ($4,700) each have between 5-7 touchdown receptions. Of the group, I lean towards spending up with Douglas who leads the team in every receiving category. Oregon is 82nd in explosive pass plays allowed, which could benefit Douglas who averages 15.7 YPC and a 13.0 aDOT which is most amongst the foursome.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – n/a
Alabama vs. Indiana
- Point-Spread: IU -7
- O/U Total: 48
- Implied Score: IU 27.5 – Ala 20.5
- Weather: 63 degrees / 78% rain / 7 mph winds
Alabama:
Fade – RBs. The worst offensive position group among the remaining playoff teams. And also the worst matchup, as the Hoosiers allowed just 77.6 YPG on the ground during the regular season and just five rushing touchdowns – the second fewest of any team behind only Ohio State. Not great for an Alabama team that is inept at running the football, ranked 101st in EPA per rush and 89th in rush success rate. If dead set on playing an Alabama running back to be contrarian, RB Daniel Hill ($4,900) has easily been the better of the two options between he and Jam Miller, which isn’t saying much.
Bargain Bin – WR Lotzeir Brooks ($3,800) Recency bias with theCFFSite projections with Brooks as the second-highest projected wideout, but for good reason after his 79-yard, two-touchdown performance at Oklahoma. The risk is Brooks only playing 43% of the offensive snaps, which was still fourth among Alabama wideouts despite being the most productive. WR Isaiah Horton ($3,500) is extremely inexpensive for a player that led his team in touchdowns (8) and led all Alabama wideouts in targets (8) vs. the Sooners.
Pivot Play – WR Germie Bernard ($6,100) Expectation is that most will go cheap with Alabama wide receivers, focusing on Brooks and Horton, lessening the ownership for Bernard that we normally see weekly. Mistake? Bernard still leads the Tide in every receiving category, aside from touchdowns (7), playing 93% of the offensive snaps over the last seven games.
Best of the Rest – QB Ty Simpson ($7,500) Personally will be going full fade of Ty Simpson and Behren Morton with non-running QBs in bad matchups. Indiana allowed just 12 FPPG to quarterbacks during the regular season, and this game will be played in less-than-ideal conditions with rain in the forecast. WR Ryan Williams ($5,600) is simply a dart throw at this point, banking on 5-star talent, with fewer than 50 receiving yards in each of his last six games.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – n/a
Indiana:
Top Play(s) – WR Elijah Sarratt ($6,400) Similar situation to Alabama, there will be temptation to go cheap at WR with the Hoosiers having another talented freshman at the position. But look back at Indiana’s biggest games this season and see why we’re touting Sarratt. 92 yards and 2 touchdowns against a then-ranked Illinois team. 156 yards and a touchdown in a five-point win vs. Iowa. 121 yards and a TD vs. Oregon. And then in the B1G title game vs. Ohio State, Sarratt was targeted just four times, but also hauled in a TD.
Fade – WR EJ Williams ($4,600) Where in the equation does Williams fit in? Sarratt has one spot on lock. Omar Cooper Jr. is healthy and will start in the slot. Charlie Becker isn’t losing his starting spot after what he’s done in the last month and a half. A receiving prop of 16.5 yards tells you all you need to know.
Bargain Bin – WR Charlie Becker ($4,400) Sarratt is the undisputed WR1 for the Hoosiers, but is he the most talented? That distinction might belong to the redshirt freshman who now has three 100-yard receiving performances in the last four games. Two receivers have surpassed the century mark in receiving yards vs. the Tide in the last three games.
Pivot Play – RB Roman Hemby ($6,000) or RB Kaelon Black ($5,100) Just one team in the last seven games averaged more than four yards per carry against this Tide defense, and that was Auburn in the season finale. 108 of the 152 yards from Auburn in that game were from Ashton Daniels too. Indiana will be able to run some on the Tide, as the Hoosiers rank 4th in the country in rush success rate and 16th in line yards, but this is not a slate to stack the Indiana backs. Like the idea of one Indiana back per lineup, with rainy conditions and being a 7-point favorite means a probable run-based script.
Best of the Rest – QB Fernando Mendoza ($8,500) Mendoza is a toss up for QB3-4 on the slate with Dante Moore and will limit exposure if the wet conditions are legitimate in the pregame. Working in favor of Mendoza is having a full complement of receivers at his disposal with a healthy Omar Cooper Jr. and EJ Williams, to go along with Sarratt and Becker. Alabama allowed just 15 FPPG to quarterbacks in the regular season, but have allowed 20+ points to Ashton Daniels, Gunner Stockton and John Mateer in three straight games.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – n/a
Ole Miss vs. Georgia
- Point-Spread: UGA -6
- O/U Total: 56
- Implied Score: UGA 26 – Miss 22.5
- Weather: Dome
Ole Miss:
Top Play(s) – QB Trinidad Chambliss ($8,000) Kewan Lacy not Ole Miss’ top play? (1) Lack of high-upside QB options on the slate. (2) We’re still somewhat concerned about Lacy’s shoulder injury suffered in the win over Tulane. (3) Chambliss has already proven he can get the job done against this Georgia defense, scoring 30.7 fantasy points in the first meeting back in October. Chambliss will be my second highest-owned QB.
Fade – WR Winston Watkins ($3,400) Ole Miss fans have already conceded to the fact Watkins will follow Lane Kiffin to LSU. And his playing time in a blowout of Tulane reflected that, on the field just 22% of the time with a single target.
Pivot Play – Fade RB Kewan Lacy ($7,800) Lacy had his lowest output of the season against UGA the first time around, rushing for just 31 yards on 12 attempts, though he did find the end-zone twice. Add in the fact that Lacy may not be 100% healthy, along with a Georgia defense hitting its stride defensively, holding its last four opponents to under 11 points, and there’s ample reason to fade ownership of Lacy here. The last four teams to face Georgia have combined to rush for 139 yards.
Best of the Rest – WR Deuce Alexander ($4,300) Every Ole Miss WR is in play given their price tag, and foresee a script slanted towards the pass for the Rebels given UGA’s stingy run defense. Alexander is second in targets and was the star of the game vs. Tulane with seven receptions for 87 yards on eight targets. Would consider stacking multiple Ole Miss pass-catchers in a lineup in GPPs, with WR Harrison Wallace ($4,900), WR De’Zhaun Stribling ($4,800) and WR Cayden Lee ($4,000) all being relatively inexpensive. TE Dae’Quan Wright ($4,200) was not 100% entering the Tulane matchup yet still converted on all four of his targets for 64 yards on 73% of snaps played.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – Watch Kewan Lacy status pregame.
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – QB Gunner Stockton ($8,100) Stockton doesn’t have the highest projection, but he’s the QB I’m most comfortable with playing on the slate. Ole Miss has the worst defense among the six teams on the slate, and we’ve already seen Stockton dominate this Rebel defense, scoring 39.7 fantasy points in the first meeting. Ole Miss has also struggled with running QBs this season, giving up 115 yards to Taylen Green, 173 yards on 20 attempts to Kamario Taylor and 59 yards on 10 attempts to Stockton in the first meeting.
Bargain Bin – WR Dillon Bell ($3,500) Bell’s role will go unchanged if Colbie Young makes it back to the starting lineup this week, as he’d take Noah Thomas’ spot after not recording a single target in the SEC title game. Bell, meanwhile, had an outstanding performance against the Tide last time out with 45 yards and a touchdown on four targets, while also adding 24 yards on four rushing attempts. Bell is the WR2 to roster on the UGA side if not playing Zachariah Branch.
Pivot Play – RB Nate Frazier ($5,500) As we alluded to above with Stockton, teams can absolutely run on Ole Miss, as the Rebels are 94th in rush D success rate, 123rd in allowing explosive run plays and 132nd in EPA per rush play. After being relegated to a backup role earlier in the year, Frazier is back atop the depth chart, having scored four touchdowns in his last five games. Frazier’s highest carry total this season (17) came in the first meeting with Ole Miss. RB Chauncey Bowens ($4,800) only had four carries in the SEC title game but has had two weeks off since coming back from injury. I’d have one Georgia RB in my lineups, with or without Stockton.
Best of the Rest – WR Zachariah Branch ($5,000) Playable on any slate as the team leader with 84 targets, 73 receptions and five touchdowns, three of which have come in the last five games.
Opt Outs / Injury Notes – WR Colbie Young (probable)
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- QB Gunner Stockton, Georgia
- RB Nate Frazier, Georgia
- WR Elijah Sarratt, Indiana
- QB Trinidad Chambliss, Mississippi
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- QB Gunner Stockton, Georgia
- RB Nate Frazier, Georgia
- WR Elijah Sarratt, Indiana
- QB Trinidad Chambliss, Mississippi
